Large counties vs. small counties

[Senator Ben]

Are you ever going to do anything with Virginia?

[Ebowed]

Are you ever going to do anything with Virginia?

Yeah.  Just have to figure out what I'm doing with the county/city boundaries.

I have no idea what to do with Alaska either.

[Ebowed]

Comparison with 1988:

Hawaii (Large)
Dukakis - 53.13%
Bush - 45.97%

Hawaii (Small)
Dukakis - 57.48%
Bush - 41.31%

Washington (Large)
Dukakis - 51.80%
Bush - 46.76%

Washington (Small)
Bush - 51.18%
Dukakis - 47.24%

Oregon (Large)
Dukakis - 55.33%
Bush - 42.82%

Oregon (Small)
Bush - 50.85%
Dukakis - 46.75%

Idaho (All Small)
Bush - 62.08%
Dukakis - 36.01%

Montana (All Small)
Bush - 52.07%
Dukakis - 46.20%

Wyoming (All Small)
Bush - 60.53%
Dukakis - 38.01%

Utah (Large)
Bush - 59.07%
Dukakis - 38.81%

Utah (Small)
Bush - 71.57%
Dukakis - 26.99%

Nevada (Large)
Bush - 56.37%
Dukakis - 40.86%

Nevada (Small)
Bush - 61.87%
Dukakis - 34.35%

Colorado (Large)
Bush - 52.98%
Dukakis - 45.31%

Colorado (Small)
Bush - 53.17%
Dukakis - 45.25%

Arizona (Large)
Bush - 61.16%
Dukakis - 37.64%

Arizona (Small)
Bush - 55.61%
Dukakis - 42.70%

New Mexico (Large)
Bush - 53.62%
Dukakis - 45.25%

New Mexico (Small)
Bush - 50.99%
Dukakis - 47.72%

California (Large)
Bush - 50.74%
Dukakis - 47.97%

California (Small)
Bush - 54.37%
Dukakis - 44.09%

[Vasall des Midas]

Honolulu is relatively conservative compared to the rest of Hawaii because (a) There are actual rich people who vote there (all year round), (b) The whites in Honolulu are more representative of whites on the mainland, while the whites elsewhere in Hawaii vote like whites in resort areas, (c) military installations, (d) There are more native Hawaiians in the rural areas than in Honolulu, and (e) Ethnic identity and tensions are higher in Honolulu than elsewhere in the state, prompting some level of ethnic voting that allows for ethnicity-based political machines (for both parties, but that tends to be a moderating effect on the overall vote)

The highest concentrations of native Hawai'ians are in the non-urban parts of O'ahu. I'm too lazy to look up detailed stats, but Honolulu County's share of both Pacific Islanders and people of two or more races (a lot of whom are part Native Hawaiian) are only minimally below the state average... and I'm pretty sure I remember there's a sizable Samoan community on either Maui or Hawai'i Island.

Thing is, outer O'ahu's natives are mostly Mormons, and are definitely one of the more Republican voting blocs in the state (though not monolitihically Republican or anything like that.) Of the two precincts McCain won in the state outside of Ni'ihau, one's in the heart of the Native Hawai'ian Mormon country and one's in the heart of the Military-Industrial Complex around Pearl Harbour.

The richest whitest bits of Honolulu proper do tend to vote Democratic by smaller margins than the state average as well, so there's some truth to that, but "Military+Mormons" (with Mormons just added as an afterthought) is a better explanation. Really it basically comes down to the military presence.

[politicalchick20]

States with largest difference between large and small counties:

MD   46.79
TN   39.81
GA   39.66
MO   37.2
KY   35.74

Heavily minority large counties and lily white hillbilly small counties.

That's Maryland in a nutshell, especially in Western Maryland (Washington, Allegany, and Garrett counties, with heavy emphasis on the last two, as Hagerstown, which is in Washington County, isn't seen to be as "Western Maryland" as it used to be--although it still made me laugh when the crew on Morning Joe saw Ben Cardin being heckled there at a town hall and were surprised because Maryland is a Democratic state--Hagerstown may not be Garrett County, but it isn't Prince George's County, either), the most Republican area in the state, where I go to school.

Southern Maryland meanwhile (Charles, Calvert, and St. Mary's counties), where I grew up, although definitely not the liberal and/or Democratic bastion that the DC suburbs and Baltimore and its surrounding suburbs are (excluding some areas like Anne Arundel County outside of Annapolis), is not as Republican as one might think. Charles County has gone Democratic since 2000 (although it's also more urban than it was before 2000, and is the closest to DC of the Southern Maryland counties--go figure-- but there are still rural areas in that county, though, just not as many as there used to be).

In St. Mary's County, there is actually a fairly significant African-American population, but it is offset by the large military population due to the presence of the Patuxent River Naval Base. Western Maryland, on the other hand, has neither (again, in terms of ethnicity, go figure--it's the part of the state that borders West Virginia and Southwestern Pennsylvania).

Southern Maryland is the fastest growing area of the state, though, so it'll be interesting to watch elections there in the next few years.

[Ebowed]

Results of States Without Their Largest County

Hawaii (Honolulu Co.)
Obama - 76.07%
McCain - 22.08%

Vermont (Chittenden Co.)
Obama - 66.08%
McCain - 31.76%

Connecticut (Fairfield Co.)
Obama - 61.22%
McCain - 37.44%

Massachusetts (Middlesex Co.)
Obama - 61.13%
McCain - 36.65%

New York (Kings Co.)
Obama - 61.06%
McCain - 37.80%

Maryland (Montgomery Co.)
Obama - 59.98%
McCain - 38.37%

Rhode Island (Providence Co.)
Obama - 59.20%
McCain - 38.68%

California (Los Angeles Co.)
Obama - 58.28%
McCain - 39.53%

New Jersey (Bergen Co.)
Obama - 57.49%
McCain - 41.23%

Maine (Cumberland Co.)
Obama - 55.86%
McCain - 42.17%

New Hampshire (Rockingham Co.)
Obama - 55.31%
McCain - 43.33%

New Mexico (Bernalillo Co.)
Obama - 55.27%
McCain - 43.41%

Wisconsin (Milwaukee Co.)
Obama - 54.12%
McCain - 44.37%

Michigan (Wayne Co.)
Obama - 53.72%
McCain - 44.41%

Colorado (Jefferson Co.)
Obama - 53.67%
McCain - 44.72%

Iowa (Polk Co.)
Obama - 53.52%
McCain - 44.81%

Illinois (Cook Co.)
Obama - 52.80%
McCain - 45.52%

Washington (King Co.)
Obama - 51.84%
McCain - 45.59%

Oregon (Multnomah Co.)
Obama - 51.78%
McCain - 45.33%

Virginia (Fairfax Co.)
Obama - 51.42%
McCain - 47.52%

Minnesota (Hennepin Co.)
Obama - 51.30%
McCain - 46.49%

Pennsylvania (Philadelphia Co.)
Obama - 50.60%
McCain - 47.92%

Florida (Miami-Dade Co.)
Obama - 50.12%
McCain - 48.83%

Ohio (Cuyahoga Co.)
Obama - 49.10%
McCain - 49.02%

Montana (Yellowstone Co.)
McCain - 49.14%
Obama - 47.41%

Nevada (Clark Co.)
McCain - 49.18%
Obama - 48.31%

Delaware (New Castle Co.)
McCain - 49.85%
Obama - 49.16%

North Carolina (Wake Co.)
McCain - 50.19%
Obama - 48.90%

Indiana (Marion Co.)
McCain - 50.99%
Obama - 47.66%

Missouri (St. Louis Co.)
McCain - 51.67%
Obama - 46.80%

Arizona (Maricopa Co.)
McCain - 51.87%
Obama - 46.39%

South Carolina (Greenville Co.)
McCain - 53.08%
Obama - 45.75%

South Dakota (Minnehaha Co.)
McCain - 54.34%
Obama - 43.49%

Georgia (Fulton Co.)
McCain - 54.41%
Obama - 44.58%

North Dakota (Cass Co.)
McCain - 55.44%
Obama - 42.20%

West Virginia (Kanawha Co.)
McCain - 56.41%
Obama - 41.66%

Texas (Harris Co.)
McCain - 56.50%
Obama - 42.48%

Kansas (Johnson Co.)
McCain - 57.33%
Obama - 40.63%

Mississippi (Hinds Co.)
McCain - 58.57%
Obama - 40.58%

Louisiana (East Baton Rouge Pa.)
McCain - 59.71%
Obama - 38.75%

Nebraska (Douglas Co.)
McCain - 60.34%
Obama - 37.68%

Kentucky (Jefferson Co.)
McCain - 60.74%
Obama - 37.72%

Tennessee (Shelby Co.)
McCain - 60.69%
Obama - 37.82%

Arkansas (Pulaski Co.)
McCain - 61.37%
Obama - 36.04%

Alabama (Jefferson Co.)
McCain - 62.69%
Obama - 36.34%

Idaho (Ada Co.)
McCain - 64.83%
Obama - 32.28%

Wyoming (Laramie Co.)
McCain - 65.91%
Obama - 31.35%

Oklahoma (Oklahoma Co.)
McCain - 67.35%
Obama - 32.65%

Utah (Salt Lake Co.)
McCain - 71.07%
Obama - 25.54%

[Badger]

Neat numbers, Ebowed!

By my count Obama's percentage actually improved in the following states after removing the largest county:

Hawaii
Connecticut
New Jersey
New Hampshire
Montana
Arizona
South Carolina

Fun Fact: After removing the 1st and 2nd largest counties in PA (Philly and Allegheny), Obama still narrowly carries the state.

[memphis]

Neat numbers, Ebowed!

By my count Obama's percentage actually improved in the following states after removing the largest county:

Hawaii
Connecticut
New Jersey
New Hampshire
Montana
Arizona
South Carolina

Fun Fact: After removing the 1st and 2nd largest counties in PA (Philly and Allegheny) every state, Obama still narrowly carries the state nation.

[Badger]

Neat numbers, Ebowed!

By my count Obama's percentage actually improved in the following states after removing the largest county:

Hawaii
Connecticut
New Jersey
New Hampshire
Montana
Arizona
South Carolina

Fun Fact: After removing the 1st and 2nd largest counties in PA (Philly and Allegheny) every state, Obama still narrowly carries the state nation.

Hmmmm. Sure enough. OH and Florida flip, but OR, WA and MN all barely stay with Obama, and removing VA Beach from the VA total actually helps Obama's percentage slightly. Interesting.