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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #175 on: August 04, 2014, 10:02:26 AM »

Maryland

There, I simply merged the neighboring Delaware and DC into Maryland, adding about 1.5 million to the State's population. This, as you can imagine, doesn't change much to the State's political outlook. However, the overwhelmingly democratic DC would push the State somewhat to the left of OTL Maryland, with significant consequences.

MD Presidential election results, 1960-2012:


Indeed, this new Maryland becomes one of the most consistently Democratic States of the past half-century, voting Republican only once (Nixon's 1972 landslide) since 1960. Both times, the narrow Republican victories of 1984 and 1988 are canceled by DC's heavy Democratic margins (even as Delaware alone would have brought the State further toward the GOP). The most striking result is that, under this scenario, Mondale actually won more than one State. Tongue He carried MD by 0.4 points, more than the 0.2 point margin he had in Minnesota! Clearly, even a numerically small constituency like DC can make a major difference if it's sufficiently overwhelming in its support for one party.

Comparing the new and old States' relative PVI brings further perspective (DC is omitted because its PVI fluctuates between 50 and 80, and thus would skew the graph too much):



As you can see, the "new" Maryland remains always about 5 points more democratic than its RL counterpart. Delaware's political leanings, generally a bit more Republican than MD's, have almost no influence. On the other hand, DC's impact is significant, turning an already solid-D State into stronghold territory. Since DC residents began to vote in 1964, this new Maryland has always been at least 7 points more Democratic than the nation. The only time when OTL Maryland displayed a slight Republican lean IRL, namely 1972, saw McGovern lose by only 16 points in this scenario. Starting in the 2000s, Maryland's PVI has been at or above 20 points, making it rock-solid Democratic country.

Capital: I'd say Annapolis still works fine.

Governor: Still Martin O'Malley

Senators: Tom Carper (class 1) and Barbara Mikulski (class 3) - I'll be nice and give poor little Delaware a Senator Tongue

Representatives: With the State Legislature solidly in Democratic hands, the party would have no trouble creating a gerrymander like the OTL one, and getting a 9D-1R delegation. They might even take all 10 seats for them in if they play their cards right with New Castle County, but I can't know that for sure. Regardless, giving congressional representation to DC would net the Democrats one more seat.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #176 on: August 04, 2014, 03:09:08 PM »


Indeed! This Pennsylvania split was my favorite part of the scenario so far (though California seems very promising as well). I think that's at least one case where I was able to draw States that represent entirely different constituencies.

Anyway, North and South Florida are coming next! Smiley
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Enderman
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« Reply #177 on: August 04, 2014, 09:11:12 PM »

Anyway, North and South Florida are coming next! Smiley

Yay!
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Gass3268
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« Reply #178 on: August 05, 2014, 08:08:33 AM »

I really like this series, but I have to imagine that if Delaware was forced to pick what state they wanted to join, they'd pick Pennsylvania. They were essentially a part of Pennsylvania between  1682-1704 and culturally they are more connected. Sports loyalties almost automatically shift from the Orioles/Ravens to the Phillies/Eagles when you cross the state border. It wouldn't look as pretty, but it would make more sense culturally. 
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #179 on: August 05, 2014, 01:03:10 PM »

I really like this series, but I have to imagine that if Delaware was forced to pick what state they wanted to join, they'd pick Pennsylvania. They were essentially a part of Pennsylvania between  1682-1704 and culturally they are more connected. Sports loyalties almost automatically shift from the Orioles/Ravens to the Phillies/Eagles when you cross the state border. It wouldn't look as pretty, but it would make more sense culturally.

Really? I had no idea. You're right that it may be a fairer solution for Delaware citizens, but there's the problem of population (new PA is still pretty big) and geography. I've always hated the shape of the DE/MD border. Tongue
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Gass3268
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« Reply #180 on: August 06, 2014, 02:07:46 PM »

I really like this series, but I have to imagine that if Delaware was forced to pick what state they wanted to join, they'd pick Pennsylvania. They were essentially a part of Pennsylvania between  1682-1704 and culturally they are more connected. Sports loyalties almost automatically shift from the Orioles/Ravens to the Phillies/Eagles when you cross the state border. It wouldn't look as pretty, but it would make more sense culturally.

Really? I had no idea. You're right that it may be a fairer solution for Delaware citizens, but there's the problem of population (new PA is still pretty big) and geography. I've always hated the shape of the DE/MD border. Tongue

Yeah the entire area is a mess and there are bunch of wiki articles on it:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twelve-Mile_Circle
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Wedge_(border)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transpeninsular_Line
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mason-Dixon_line

Also kinda surprised you didn't give the entire Delmarva Peninsula to Maryland.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #181 on: August 07, 2014, 03:08:38 PM »

North Florida

Dividing Florida was a tricky job, and I can't say I'm fully satisfied with the result. The soundest solution would have been to make NF start at the level of Marion and Putnam counties, leaving the big metropolitan areas of Orlando and Tampa out of it. However, such a State would have less than a quarter of FL's original population - leaving the Southern one way too big. As a result, I included the Orlando metropolitan area to NF, thus obscuring a bit the characteristic nature of "real" Northern Florida. Nonetheless, the main picture remains: NF is the smaller of the two States, and, since 1984, always the most Republican of the two.

NF Presidential election results, 1960-2012:


More so that OTL FL, North Florida's political evolution displays some decisively Southern traits. In 1960, it was an ultimate swing State, with Nixon prevailing by a mere 800 votes thanks to his huge margins in the Orlando region. To show just how much things have changed since, Kennedy actually swept the Florida panhandle. In 1964 and 1968, it joined its neighboring Deep Southern States in supporting first Goldwater, then Wallace. I was forced to cut Nixon's 1972 results on the chart, but he won a whopping 76% of the vote. In 1976, Carter managed to resurrect Democratic strength in the Panhandle and to keep Ford's margin down in the Orlando region, winning the State by 7 points. He remains, to this day, the only Democrat to win this State in the past half-century. Over the next 3 elections, the State experienced a massive Republican trend, to the point that it gave over 65% of its votes to Bush Sr. Since then, it has somewhat moved back to the Democrats, but it remains solidly in the Republican column (its PVI from 1992 to 2012 has fluctuated between R+11 and R+15).

However, as I said before, this general overview of the State mixes together two very different political movements. The story of the Florida panhandle (even when understood in a broad sense, to include the Jacksonville area and the northern edge of the peninsula) is that of many other Deep South States, ie one of realignment from a solidly democratic land to an overwhelmingly republican territory, going through all the well-known mood swings from 1964 through 1980. The Orlando area, meanwhile, has experienced a prolonged Democratic trend. Once the most republican region of OTL Florida (Orlando's Orange County gave Nixon 71% of the vote in 1960!), it is now roughly as Democratic as the Tampa Bay area. The superposition of these two opposite trends was particularly striking in 2000:



In relative terms, Gore significantly improved over Clinton's 1996 performance throughout the Orlando area (especially in Orange County) and more marginally in Tallahassee. Meanwhile, most of the panhandle moved in the opposite direction. It is still unclear which of the two regions is prevailing over the other, and the State hasn't moved much either way since 1992. However, were the Orlando area to continue moving leftward and increasingly resemble other overwhelmingly democratic urban areas, NF could eventually become more competitive. In the past few elections, the State has been just a couple points more Republican than Georgia. Still, it's hard to see it voting Democratic anytime soon.

Capital: Although it's located north and west of the State's main population centers, Tallahassee should work fine, considering that it's the capital of OTL Florida.

Governor: Bill McCollum would have won easily in 2010 and would probably be headed to a comfortable reelection (Rick Scott lives in South Florida).

Senators: Bill Nelson (class 1) and Jeff Miller (class 3) - I initially wanted two Republicans, but the GOP bench in this State is so incredibly (and surprisingly) weak that I really don't see how a candidate as strong as Bill Nelson could possibly lose when running for an open seat in a year like 2006 or 2012.

Representatives: In 2010, Republicans would hold supermajorities in both houses and would have no trouble pushing through a shameless gerrymander. Still, I guess they can't do much worse than IRL, so we'd still end up with a 9R-2D map. Or is there a way to crack Grayson's seat in the Orlando area as well? If so, feel free to correct me.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #182 on: August 07, 2014, 03:28:09 PM »

I really like this series, but I have to imagine that if Delaware was forced to pick what state they wanted to join, they'd pick Pennsylvania. They were essentially a part of Pennsylvania between  1682-1704 and culturally they are more connected. Sports loyalties almost automatically shift from the Orioles/Ravens to the Phillies/Eagles when you cross the state border. It wouldn't look as pretty, but it would make more sense culturally.

Really? I had no idea. You're right that it may be a fairer solution for Delaware citizens, but there's the problem of population (new PA is still pretty big) and geography. I've always hated the shape of the DE/MD border. Tongue

Yeah the entire area is a mess and there are bunch of wiki articles on it:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twelve-Mile_Circle
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Wedge_(border)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transpeninsular_Line
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mason-Dixon_line

Also kinda surprised you didn't give the entire Delmarva Peninsula to Maryland.

Haha yeah, Delaware is one complicated little prick of a State. Tongue

And yeah, I could have added the two VA counties in the peninsula to Maryland, but my intent when redrawing State borders was more with correcting glaring population disparities and trying to form more homogeneous communities of interest than anything else, so I tried to keep the changes as minimal as possible.
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Enderman
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« Reply #183 on: August 07, 2014, 03:51:59 PM »

Eh McCollum is like 70 years old, I'd say someone else, like Will Weatherford (went to Jacksonville University, Represented Pasco County (directly north of Hillsboro and Pinellas Counties)
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #184 on: August 07, 2014, 04:29:28 PM »

Eh McCollum is like 70 years old, I'd say someone else, like Will Weatherford (went to Jacksonville University, Represented Pasco County (directly north of Hillsboro and Pinellas Counties)

Didn't he almost win the GOP primary against Scott in 2010?
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JerryArkansas
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« Reply #185 on: August 07, 2014, 04:35:08 PM »

Anthony, if you want, starting next month I could draw congressional districts for each of these states for you.
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Enderman
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« Reply #186 on: August 07, 2014, 04:43:20 PM »

Eh McCollum is like 70 years old, I'd say someone else, like Will Weatherford (went to Jacksonville University, Represented Pasco County (directly north of Hillsboro and Pinellas Counties)

Didn't he almost win the GOP primary against Scott in 2010?

Well he did, but in 2014, I'd say Weatherford is the frontrunner and McCollum won't run again. IMO McCollum would be popular, but he'd need an heir, think of it this way: Old yet popular governor versus charismatic (and very, very tanned) guy who looks like he could be President? (looks, not can be, looks) IMO a 34 year old Speaker of the Florida who was elected to the State House when he was 28 would have a great chance. But here's the thing with Willy, the issue he drastically failed at is the exact thing that makes Tampa and Sarasota (south of his district) famous, retiree healthcare
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #187 on: August 07, 2014, 04:54:17 PM »

Anthony, if you want, starting next month I could draw congressional districts for each of these states for you.

That would be fantastic! Cheesy I was actually thinking of asking people in the Political Geography board about that! I'd really like to see some Congressional maps based on the political realities I've created, to see how much could actually change.


Eh McCollum is like 70 years old, I'd say someone else, like Will Weatherford (went to Jacksonville University, Represented Pasco County (directly north of Hillsboro and Pinellas Counties)

Didn't he almost win the GOP primary against Scott in 2010?

Well he did, but in 2014, I'd say Weatherford is the frontrunner and McCollum won't run again. IMO McCollum would be popular, but he'd need an heir, think of it this way: Old yet popular governor versus charismatic (and very, very tanned) guy who looks like he could be President? (looks, not can be, looks) IMO a 34 year old Speaker of the Florida who was elected to the State House when he was 28 would have a great chance. But here's the thing with Willy, the issue he drastically failed at is the exact thing that makes Tampa and Sarasota (south of his district) famous, retiree healthcare

Very interesting insight, thanks. Smiley So we can say there's about to be a very tough primary challenge for McCollum...
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GAworth
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« Reply #188 on: August 07, 2014, 04:58:04 PM »

Eh McCollum is like 70 years old, I'd say someone else, like Will Weatherford (went to Jacksonville University, Represented Pasco County (directly north of Hillsboro and Pinellas Counties)

Didn't he almost win the GOP primary against Scott in 2010?

Well he did, but in 2014, I'd say Weatherford is the frontrunner and McCollum won't run again. IMO McCollum would be popular, but he'd need an heir, think of it this way: Old yet popular governor versus charismatic (and very, very tanned) guy who looks like he could be President? (looks, not can be, looks) IMO a 34 year old Speaker of the Florida who was elected to the State House when he was 28 would have a great chance. But here's the thing with Willy, the issue he drastically failed at is the exact thing that makes Tampa and Sarasota (south of his district) famous, retiree healthcare

He would live in South Florida. So he could very well be a influential legislator down there but not North Florida.
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JerryArkansas
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« Reply #189 on: August 07, 2014, 05:02:38 PM »

Anthony, if you want, starting next month I could draw congressional districts for each of these states for you.

That would be fantastic! Cheesy I was actually thinking of asking people in the Political Geography board about that! I'd really like to see some Congressional maps based on the political realities I've created, to see how much could actually change.


Eh McCollum is like 70 years old, I'd say someone else, like Will Weatherford (went to Jacksonville University, Represented Pasco County (directly north of Hillsboro and Pinellas Counties)

Didn't he almost win the GOP primary against Scott in 2010?

Well he did, but in 2014, I'd say Weatherford is the frontrunner and McCollum won't run again. IMO McCollum would be popular, but he'd need an heir, think of it this way: Old yet popular governor versus charismatic (and very, very tanned) guy who looks like he could be President? (looks, not can be, looks) IMO a 34 year old Speaker of the Florida who was elected to the State House when he was 28 would have a great chance. But here's the thing with Willy, the issue he drastically failed at is the exact thing that makes Tampa and Sarasota (south of his district) famous, retiree healthcare

Very interesting insight, thanks. Smiley So we can say there's about to be a very tough primary challenge for McCollum...
Ok, can you get me some updated district data.
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Enderman
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« Reply #190 on: August 07, 2014, 05:04:38 PM »

Anthony, if you want, starting next month I could draw congressional districts for each of these states for you.

That would be fantastic! Cheesy I was actually thinking of asking people in the Political Geography board about that! I'd really like to see some Congressional maps based on the political realities I've created, to see how much could actually change.


Eh McCollum is like 70 years old, I'd say someone else, like Will Weatherford (went to Jacksonville University, Represented Pasco County (directly north of Hillsboro and Pinellas Counties)

Didn't he almost win the GOP primary against Scott in 2010?

Well he did, but in 2014, I'd say Weatherford is the frontrunner and McCollum won't run again. IMO McCollum would be popular, but he'd need an heir, think of it this way: Old yet popular governor versus charismatic (and very, very tanned) guy who looks like he could be President? (looks, not can be, looks) IMO a 34 year old Speaker of the Florida who was elected to the State House when he was 28 would have a great chance. But here's the thing with Willy, the issue he drastically failed at is the exact thing that makes Tampa and Sarasota (south of his district) famous, retiree healthcare

Very interesting insight, thanks. Smiley So we can say there's about to be a very tough primary challenge for McCollum...

Well, McCollum would probably just not run for another term. I doubt he would Buchanan the Bush ('92 GOP Primary)

Eh McCollum is like 70 years old, I'd say someone else, like Will Weatherford (went to Jacksonville University, Represented Pasco County (directly north of Hillsboro and Pinellas Counties)

Didn't he almost win the GOP primary against Scott in 2010?

Well he did, but in 2014, I'd say Weatherford is the frontrunner and McCollum won't run again. IMO McCollum would be popular, but he'd need an heir, think of it this way: Old yet popular governor versus charismatic (and very, very tanned) guy who looks like he could be President? (looks, not can be, looks) IMO a 34 year old Speaker of the Florida who was elected to the State House when he was 28 would have a great chance. But here's the thing with Willy, the issue he drastically failed at is the exact thing that makes Tampa and Sarasota (south of his district) famous, retiree healthcare

He would live in South Florida. So he could very well be a influential legislator down there but not North Florida.

.....oh.... I guess Webster would be the frontrunner then
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #191 on: August 07, 2014, 05:13:22 PM »

Ok, can you get me some updated district data.

What do you mean?
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JerryArkansas
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« Reply #192 on: August 07, 2014, 05:15:57 PM »

how many districts each state gets under 2010 data.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #193 on: August 07, 2014, 06:36:49 PM »


Oh, sure! I don't yet have the 100%-accurate numbers (because I can only calculate apportionment only once I have every State), but in most cases it's pretty clear how many districts each State would have. So, let's see:

New England: 5
Massachusetts: 11
New York: 18 or 19, can't say for sure
Adirondack: 9
Pennsylvania: 11
Allegheny: 7
Maryland: 10
North Florida: 11
South Florida: 16 (outside chance of 15)
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JerryArkansas
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« Reply #194 on: August 07, 2014, 06:40:36 PM »
« Edited: August 07, 2014, 06:44:04 PM by JerryArkansas »


Oh, sure! I don't yet have the 100%-accurate numbers (because I can only calculate apportionment only once I have every State), but in most cases it's pretty clear how many districts each State would have. So, let's see:

New England: 5
Massachusetts: 11
New York: 18 or 19, can't say for sure
Adirondack: 9
Pennsylvania: 11
Allegheny: 7
Maryland: 10
North Florida: 11
South Florida: 16 (outside chance of 15)
and that is districts, not electoral votes right.  If so I can get a few done right now by whole county in Adirondack and the florida's  Nevermind, it is districts.
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OAM
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« Reply #195 on: August 07, 2014, 07:10:54 PM »

Ah, that's an excellent write up too.  I actually didn't suspect the Floridas would be that interesting.  Granted, maybe that's because one of the other people in my Poli Sci grad program is from Florida and I've just attuned myself to what he's said about it already.
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Mr. Illini
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« Reply #196 on: August 07, 2014, 08:53:33 PM »

I've decided to spotlight some interesting elections from past years. I'll start with:

1988 Results for Chicago:
George H. W. Bush (R): 1,614,245 (49.72%)
Michael Dukakis (D): 1,607,587 (49.51%)
Others: 24,852 (0.77%)

What... Bush carried Chicago ?!? How comes ? Huh

Chicago suburbs used to be very Republican, and even Cook county wasn't as overwhelmingly Democratic as it is today. The only counties in Chicago that Dukakis carried were Cook (55.77%), Kenosha (57.72%), and the Lake in Indiana (56.55%), while suburban counties such as DuPage hovered around 70% for Bush.

But the weird thing is that Illinois was quite close at the time (it went to Bush by only 2 points), so if Dukakis is so poor in Chicago, it means he'd poll quite well in the new Illinois. He probably would have lost by a margin inferior to Bush's national margin, which means Alternate Illinois was more democratic in 1988 than in 2008... Very weird.

I know I'm a few years off, but I'd like to address this revelation from the new maps. Indeed, it makes sense that new Illinois would have trended Republican since 88. Central Illinois, farm country, has been hardcore Republican the whole time, and the northwestern part of the state, union country, mostly Democrat. Southern Illinois, or Little Egypt, however, is hilly and acts more like Kentucky than it does any other part of Illinois. We know that Kentucky has seen a Republican trend since 88, which is easy to explain with the shifts of the party brands and candidates, and so we can explain why that has happened in Illinois as well.

Anyway, awesome job to everyone who has contributed here. What a fascinating scenario!
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #197 on: August 08, 2014, 03:57:45 AM »

Ah, that's an excellent write up too.  I actually didn't suspect the Floridas would be that interesting.  Granted, maybe that's because one of the other people in my Poli Sci grad program is from Florida and I've just attuned myself to what he's said about it already.

Well, large States with several distinctive areas are always at least somewhat interesting. I guess Texas, California and Illinois will be even more interesting though. Wink


I know I'm a few years off, but I'd like to address this revelation from the new maps. Indeed, it makes sense that new Illinois would have trended Republican since 88. Central Illinois, farm country, has been hardcore Republican the whole time, and the northwestern part of the state, union country, mostly Democrat. Southern Illinois, or Little Egypt, however, is hilly and acts more like Kentucky than it does any other part of Illinois. We know that Kentucky has seen a Republican trend since 88, which is easy to explain with the shifts of the party brands and candidates, and so we can explain why that has happened in Illinois as well.

Anyway, awesome job to everyone who has contributed here. What a fascinating scenario!

Thank you very much! Smiley And yeah, I suspected that with regard to Illinois. At the time my understanding of US political geography was pretty limited, but since I've noticed the Democratic collapse in rural areas, so that makes plenty of sense in retrospect that Southern Illinois would be a lot more Democratic in the 1980s.
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RR1997
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« Reply #198 on: August 08, 2014, 09:56:27 AM »

This is the best thing ever.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #199 on: August 08, 2014, 11:13:34 AM »

Maybe I should make a spin-off thread in the Political Geography - Demographics board for redistricting stuff, what do you think?
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