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Author Topic: Alternate US States  (Read 154396 times)
Wells
MikeWells12
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« Reply #475 on: November 15, 2016, 07:38:33 PM »

So, how does the '16 general election look in this world?

This is very interesting. I would like to see all the 2016 results please.
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Metalhead123
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« Reply #476 on: November 20, 2016, 05:26:53 PM »

so when are we going to see the 2016 results here?
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SUSAN CRUSHBONE
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« Reply #477 on: November 29, 2016, 06:17:51 PM »
« Edited: November 30, 2016, 07:30:58 AM by 🆒 »

per https://kevinhayeswilson.com/redraw/



clinton 265 — 273 trump

caveäts:
1. there doesn't appear to be a zoom feature, so i may have missed some small counties (i'm glad tony didn't do anything with virginia!)
2. i'm not sure how up-to-date that site's results are — which, with california beïng within 2700 votes, could decide the election!
3. disregard the electors column — it doesn't recalculate d.c.'s electoral votes, which i used for california del sur

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Lachi
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« Reply #478 on: November 29, 2016, 08:54:16 PM »

per https://kevinwilsonhayes.com/redraw/



clinton 265 — 273 trump

caveäts:
1. there doesn't appear to be a zoom feature, so i may have missed some small counties (i'm glad tony didn't do anything with virginia!)
2. i'm not sure how up-to-date that site's results are — which, with california beïng within 2700 votes, could decide the election!
3. disregard the electors column — it doesn't recalculate d.c.'s electoral votes, which i used for california del sur

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How do you make seperate states? I can olny add or remove counties from states and give them to another one.
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Metalhead123
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« Reply #479 on: November 29, 2016, 11:03:21 PM »

per https://kevinwilsonhayes.com/redraw/



clinton 265 — 273 trump

caveäts:
1. there doesn't appear to be a zoom feature, so i may have missed some small counties (i'm glad tony didn't do anything with virginia!)
2. i'm not sure how up-to-date that site's results are — which, with california beïng within 2700 votes, could decide the election!
3. disregard the electors column — it doesn't recalculate d.c.'s electoral votes, which i used for california del sur

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That sight isnt working for me for some reason
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Lachi
lok1999
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« Reply #480 on: November 30, 2016, 05:38:51 AM »

per https://kevinwilsonhayes.com/redraw/



clinton 265 — 273 trump

caveäts:
1. there doesn't appear to be a zoom feature, so i may have missed some small counties (i'm glad tony didn't do anything with virginia!)
2. i'm not sure how up-to-date that site's results are — which, with california beïng within 2700 votes, could decide the election!
3. disregard the electors column — it doesn't recalculate d.c.'s electoral votes, which i used for california del sur

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That sight isnt working for me for some reason
two of the words are in the wrong order, this is the right site: http://kevinhayeswilson.com/redraw/
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AGA
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« Reply #481 on: November 30, 2016, 10:36:40 PM »

per https://kevinwilsonhayes.com/redraw/



clinton 265 — 273 trump

caveäts:
1. there doesn't appear to be a zoom feature, so i may have missed some small counties (i'm glad tony didn't do anything with virginia!)
2. i'm not sure how up-to-date that site's results are — which, with california beïng within 2700 votes, could decide the election!
3. disregard the electors column — it doesn't recalculate d.c.'s electoral votes, which i used for california del sur

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How do you make seperate states? I can olny add or remove counties from states and give them to another one.

You can't actually add extra states. DC was just used for Southern California.
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Figueira
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« Reply #482 on: January 15, 2017, 06:28:48 PM »

per https://kevinwilsonhayes.com/redraw/



clinton 265 — 273 trump

caveäts:
1. there doesn't appear to be a zoom feature, so i may have missed some small counties (i'm glad tony didn't do anything with virginia!)
2. i'm not sure how up-to-date that site's results are — which, with california beïng within 2700 votes, could decide the election!
3. disregard the electors column — it doesn't recalculate d.c.'s electoral votes, which i used for california del sur

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

How do you make seperate states? I can olny add or remove counties from states and give them to another one.

You can't actually add extra states. DC was just used for Southern California.

If I have time I might do this again later now that there's a zoom feature, but the correct way to do this is to add one of Antonio's fictional states to Alaska, and then add Alaska to DC, and then add DC to Maryland. Alaska has 3 EVs anyway so calling it DC doesn't change anything.
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Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner
Jalawest2
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« Reply #483 on: August 05, 2017, 09:05:42 AM »

I tallied up all the votes on Atlas, and California was a Clinton win.
Trump: 1,158,747 (46.39%)
Clinton: 1,212,797 (48.55%).

However, given that the results in it were likely changed because of there were no republicans running for CA-SEN, it might have actually gone red. 
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sentinel
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« Reply #484 on: August 08, 2017, 01:00:28 PM »

There is a zoom feature now btw (just scroll using mouse wheel) (on redrawthestates)
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RINO Tom
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« Reply #485 on: August 08, 2017, 01:07:43 PM »

Interesting that the states with Dallas and Houston go Republican.
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President Punxsutawney Phil
TimTurner
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« Reply #486 on: August 08, 2017, 10:43:22 PM »

Interesting that the states with Dallas and Houston go Republican.
not really. two words: 'suburban' and 'margins' Tongue
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tschandler
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« Reply #487 on: August 09, 2017, 01:29:46 AM »

Of all the alternate US States I have yet to see one where the Panhandle from the Apalachicola River is part of Alabama. 
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President Punxsutawney Phil
TimTurner
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« Reply #488 on: August 09, 2017, 01:47:40 AM »

Of all the alternate US States I have yet to see one where the Panhandle from the Apalachicola River is part of Alabama. 
You mean everything just west of Tallahassee being in Alabama?
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tschandler
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« Reply #489 on: August 09, 2017, 11:51:26 PM »

It's a frequently mentioned thing (jokingly) in Alabama.  Everything before west of the Apalachicola River.  Panama City Beach, Fort Walton, Destin, Pensacola etc. 
 

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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
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« Reply #490 on: July 30, 2018, 11:06:00 AM »
« Edited: November 12, 2020, 01:50:31 AM by Cosmopolitanism Will Win »

All right, I've been putting it off long enough (first because I was too depressed to look at the results, then because I wasn't quite sure if they were final, and eventually just because I was too busy or because it slipped my mind). Here is, at long last, the update you've all been waiting for. Who would have won the 2016 election if it had been held under the Alternate US States map? The answer is...


2016



Hillary Clinton: 277 (+45)
Donald J. T***p: 261 (-45)

There we have it, folks. For the first time since I have collected data, my alternate State map would actually change the outcome of a Presidential election (you can count 1968 as a changed outcome, since the election would have been thrown to the House, but as we discussed it's likely that Nixon would still have prevailed there). In an alternate reality where these are the United States of America, Hillary Clinton is currently serving as their 45th President. The election would have been one of the closest in the country's history, certainly the closest of the 15 I've covered. Just like the RL election of 2000, it all comes down to one State: this time, Michigan instead of Florida. In reality, T***p won it by slightly over 10k votes. However, take away the Upper Peninsula, and the result flips: now Hillary wins the State by 16k - or, in other words, 0.35 points. This is what pushes Hilary just barely over the top - had Michigan's 16 electors remained in the GOP column, the outcome would have been exactly opposite, with T***p at 277 and Hillary at 261. Remember all those years ago, when I said that the MI/WI reshuffle would have been virtually inconsequential? Yeah, fun how things turn out sometimes (although still, it's only a 0.5 point shift that just happens to be decisive).

Of course, IRL, flipping Michigan wouldn't have been enough to deliver the victory for Hillary - she would still have been 22 EVs short instead of 7 ahead. So what accounts for the other 30ish she gained? Mostly, the fact that almost all the State splits work out in her favor. T***p's path to victory consisted in winning all the populous swing (or even Dem-leaning, like the aforementioned Michigan) States, most of them by narrow margins. With these States now split in two, Hillary is usually able to hold onto the traditionally Democratic part of these States. This is true, in particular, with three key components of T***p's victory: Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Florida. In all three cases, Hillary is able to turn what was a disadvantage for Obama into an advantage for her. If Ohio, Allegheny and North Florida cut into the former's EV margin, Erie, Pennsylvania and South Florida bolster hers. She nets 40 EVs in total (and costs T***p 34) in these 3 States alone. T***p partially makes up for it by comfortably winning Illinois, and especially by flipping Adirondack (the only new Obama-T***p State that this new map created), but Hillary's win in Rio Grande is enough to offset most of these losses. Finally, the nail in T***p's coffin comes from the existence, unlike IRL, of an actual Romney-Clinton State, in the form of California. Unlike what some valiant but premature efforts by Evergreen had showed, Hillary in fact comfortably won the State by 2.34 points (almost identical to the margin she carried Nevada by).

As much as this what-if scenario might rightfully make Democrats (myself included) rage in frustration, it's always worth remembering a couple things. First, resource allocation by both candidates would almost certainly have been drastically different under these circumstances. Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida being split into largely uncompetitive States (although ER and SF were close, it's hard to imagine them getting any closer), money and stump speeches would probably flow elsewhere. Maybe T***p would have campaigned in California and actually flipped the State (especially since it would probably have a pretty cheap media market), or maybe he would have put in that extra effort to flip Michigan or nearby Minnesota. Alternatively, maybe Hillary could actually have bothered to show up in Wisconsin, or visited her own backyard of Adirondack. Either way, there are a lot of unknowns (and unknowables) involved. In addition, such a razor-edge Electoral College victory, coupled with equally dismal results in Congressional and State elections, probably wouldn't bode well for the Democrats' future. Given his attitude before the election, it's obvious that T***p would have a field day whining about massive fraud, and "mainstream" Republicans would almost certainly join him to delegitimize Hillary's presidency. Lacking both a clear mandate and congressional majorities, she'd be a lame duck from her first day in office, and I am doubtful that McConnell would even let her appoint Merrick Garland to the Court. To say nothing of what a disaster the 2018 midterms would shape up to be. I for one am honestly not sure if I'd really prefer to live in such a dire alternate reality.

PVI map:


Donald J. T***p: 286 (-33)
Hillary Clinton: 252 (+33)

I've used the previous two PVI maps to talk about how polarized this alternate map is, but boy oh boy I hadn't seen anything yet. This map is brutal. The vast central expanse of Titanium-R States has grown even vaster, now engulfing even the historically swingy Lower Midwest. The Titanium-D column sees only two additions, but they are important and symbolic ones: California Del Sur and Massachusetts. There are, in fairness, some States that became more competitive, all to Democrats' detriment: AD, MI, ER, NE and SF. Still, this does little to change the picture of an increasingly fractured country. Once again, this map is not quite as bad as the RL PVI map, thanks to Democrats holding to their "pieces" of the split big-EV swing States (PA, ER, SF - although the closeness of ER, an ancestral Democratic stronghold, ought to scare the party sh*tless). They also simultaneously stop being hurt by the California split (thanks to Hillary winning the new CA by more than she won nationwide) and start drawing net benefits from the Texas split (with RG moving straight from lean-R to likely-D). All in all, still a poor map for Democrats, but with a couple more bright spots than IRL.

Swing/trend map:


Like last time, this trend map isn't very different from the RL ones. All of the States that were split have still swung and trended in the same direction, with the one exception of Chicago and Illinois - the former experiencing a robust Democratic trend, the latter a powerful Republican one. In a few cases, there are still noticeable nuances: Adirondack, Allegheny and Erie were far more sensitive to T***p's appeal than New York, Pennsylvania and Ohio respectively (the first two are easy enough to understand, but the concentration of Obama-T***p voters in Erie remains stunning to me). Conversely, while all the States carved out of RL California trended toward Hillary, California del Sur was the epicenter of this trend, with Pacific experiencing a robust shift as well, and the new California barely budging in comparison (although this slight D trend still proved decisive to Hillary's victory). In Texas and Florida, Hillary and T***p's gains, respectively, appear strikingly uniform (although it's worth noting that NF's trend is almost flat). So, overall, not too much to see here.

State Data:
- Most Democratic: Pacific (PVI +48.20)
- Most Republican: West Virginia (PVI -43.77)
- Closest: Michigan (margin +0.35)
- Bellwether: California (PVI +0.25)
- Tipping point: Michigan (PVI -1.74), after MN
- Strongest Democratic Trend: Utah (trend +31.76)
- Strongest Republican Trend: Iowa (trend -13.45)
- Most Stable (absolute): Maryland (swing -0.28)
- Most Stable (relative): North Florida (trend -0.04)
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
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« Reply #491 on: August 01, 2018, 06:02:08 AM »

Welp, guess this came in too late to be of any interest. Sorry folks. Sad
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P. Clodius Pulcher did nothing wrong
razze
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #492 on: August 01, 2018, 09:50:20 AM »

No I am super interested!!! this is the coolest thing and I was so into it that I forgot to leave a devoted comment at the end
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
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« Reply #493 on: August 01, 2018, 01:01:54 PM »

No I am super interested!!! this is the coolest thing and I was so into it that I forgot to leave a devoted comment at the end

Thanks! Smiley Great sig, btw.
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JG
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« Reply #494 on: August 01, 2018, 08:17:04 PM »

Wow. I've just spent the entire evening reading all of this. This thread is amazing and so detailed. Congrats on the great work.
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Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner
Jalawest2
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« Reply #495 on: August 01, 2018, 09:39:43 PM »

Wow. I've just spent the entire evening reading all of this. This thread is amazing and so detailed. Congrats on the great work.
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #496 on: August 02, 2018, 03:10:02 AM »

Wow. I've just spent the entire evening reading all of this. This thread is amazing and so detailed. Congrats on the great work.
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
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« Reply #497 on: August 02, 2018, 05:39:58 AM »

Oh wow, thanks! Cheesy I'm really glad this project is reaching new people.
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OBD
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #498 on: August 02, 2018, 02:21:20 PM »

Wow. I've just spent the entire evening reading all of this. This thread is amazing and so detailed. Congrats on the great work.
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Independents for... RFK Jr? God help us all
Seef
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« Reply #499 on: August 02, 2018, 03:52:57 PM »


2016 snip



Hillary Clinton: 277 (+45)
Donald J. T***p: 261 (-45)

I'm incredibly glad you decided to come back and bump this thread with the 2016 results. After reading through all your posts over the past few years for the other elections this was a fitting conclusion and raises a lot of interesting questions about whether, in your world, the "suburban"-type states like inland California would have completed the Romney-Clinton swing and changed the election or whether Trump would have brought his campaign there like he focused on swing states IRL. All in all an interesting conclusion to a hyuge undertaking, glad you came back for it.
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