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NeverAgain
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #425 on: August 19, 2015, 02:26:25 PM »

Now then, all we have left is Governors' elections. Should I bother with that, or is it time to end this thread? It doesn't seem to be getting much interest anymore.
Continue!
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« Reply #426 on: August 19, 2015, 03:02:40 PM »

Now then, all we have left is Governors' elections. Should I bother with that, or is it time to end this thread? It doesn't seem to be getting much interest anymore.
Continue!
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Anti-Bothsidesism
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« Reply #427 on: August 19, 2015, 05:27:17 PM »

Now then, all we have left is Governors' elections. Should I bother with that, or is it time to end this thread? It doesn't seem to be getting much interest anymore.
Continue!
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Higgs
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« Reply #428 on: August 20, 2015, 11:53:16 PM »

Now then, all we have left is Governors' elections. Should I bother with that, or is it time to end this thread? It doesn't seem to be getting much interest anymore.
Continue!
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Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends
Anton Kreitzer
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« Reply #429 on: August 20, 2015, 11:59:21 PM »

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Enderman
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« Reply #430 on: August 21, 2015, 04:46:26 PM »

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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
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« Reply #431 on: August 22, 2015, 06:07:29 AM »
« Edited: August 23, 2015, 11:07:26 AM by Αλληλεγγύη »

Wow, I had no idea so many people still followed this! Smiley

Well then, let's move on! I'll start with 2006, since going earlier would be nothing but random guesswork.


2006 Gubernatorial Elections



Democrats: 21
Republicans: 18

Democrats gaining open seats include Deval Patrick (MA), Ted Strickland (OH) and unidentified candidates in Allegheny and California. Democrats in CH (Blagojevic), MI (Granholm), WI (Doyle), PA (Rendell), RG and ER are all reelected. Eliot Spitzer and Jerry Brown hold the open seats in New York Pacific, respectively, while Martin O'Malley defeats Bob Ehrlich in Maryland. On the Republican side, Kay Bailey Hutchinson comfortably wins a first term as Governor of Texas, while Rick Perry hangs on in Jefferson despite multiple independent candidacies. New England Governor Jim Douglas is also reelected, as are Arnold Schwarzenegger of CS, Charlie Crist of SF, and the governors of AD and IL. Butch Otter holds the open seat in Oregon, as does someone in NF.


2008 Gubernatorial Elections



Democrats: 5
Republicans: 3

(Note: New England is the only State that elects its Governor every 2 years, in even-numbered years)

Jim Douglas cruises to an easy reelection for his last term. Democrats Brian Schweitzer of Lincoln and Christine Gregoire of Washington also win a second term, as does Republican Mitch Daniels of Indiana.


Governorship Control in 2010:

Democrats: 27 (=)
Republicans: 24 (+1)
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
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« Reply #432 on: August 23, 2015, 11:53:37 AM »

2010 Gubernatorial Elections



Democrats: 14
Republicans: 25

Republican Governors the country, benefiting largely from the many governorships left by term-limited Democratic incumbents. As IRL, their list include Tom Corbett (AY), Rick Snyder (MI) and Scott Walker (WI), but also Lamar Smith in Rio Grande, who all win comfortably. Further adding to Republican gains, John Kasich wrestles Ted Strickland away from the Ohio governorship (albeit in a relatively underwhelming performance for such a solid-GOP State), and Tom McClintock does the same in California (presumably in a rematch from his unsuccessful 2006 bid). Despite such an unfavorable climate, five Democrats still manage to claim open seats formerly in Republican hands, among whom are Maggie Hassan from New England and Alex Sink from South Florida (who easily edges out her controversial opponent Rick Scott). Holding open seats for the GOP, Bill McCollum, Bill Brady and Brian Sandoval easily triumph respectively in NF, IL and NV. Steve Cooley has a tougher time, but still narrowly wins the race to succeed Arnold Schwarzenegger, thus keeping CS Atlas blue. On the Democratic side, Andrew Cuomo easily becomes the NY governor in the wake of the Eliot Spitzer debacle, Bob Casey Jr. manages to succeed Ed Rendell as the governor of Pennsylvania, and Lee Fisher narrowly manages to keep Erie in the Democratic column. Incumbents Deval Patrick (D-MA), Martin O'Malley (D-MD), Pat Quinn (D-CH), Jerry Brown (D-PC), Kay Bailey Hutchison (R-TX), Rick Perry (R-JF), and Butch Otter (R-OR) are all reelected relatively easily.


Governorship Control in 2012:

Democrats: 20 (-1)
Republicans: 31 (+2)
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
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« Reply #433 on: August 24, 2015, 12:28:49 PM »

2012 Gubernatorial Elections



Democrats: 4
Republicans: 4

Maggie Hassan is comfortably reelected in NE. In Indiana, Mike Pence manages to break 50% due to the removal of the Gary area, and thus easily succeeds Mitch Daniels - just like Jay Inslee easily succeeds Christine Gregoire in Washington. Meanwhile, in Lincoln Matt Mead wins the open seat to replace two-term incumbent Brian Schweitzer, netting another gain for Republicans (in addition to NC).


Governorship Control in 2014:

Democrats: 19 (-2)
Republicans: 32 (+3)
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Gass3268
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« Reply #434 on: August 24, 2015, 02:03:43 PM »

2016 Senate Predictions



In their luckiest scenario, Democrats could potentially take as many as 9 seats to the GOP (although some of them will almost certainly fall back into the safe column as the campaign draws near). On a particularly good day, Republicans could keep all their 2010 gains and add Colorado and Nevada. The most likely outcome however should be D+1 or D+2.

Do you have a current list of Senators? Also how does the Iran Deal whip count look like? Wink
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
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« Reply #435 on: August 24, 2015, 04:08:14 PM »

2016 Senate Predictions



In their luckiest scenario, Democrats could potentially take as many as 9 seats to the GOP (although some of them will almost certainly fall back into the safe column as the campaign draws near). On a particularly good day, Republicans could keep all their 2010 gains and add Colorado and Nevada. The most likely outcome however should be D+1 or D+2.

Do you have a current list of Senators? Also how does the Iran Deal whip count look like? Wink

You'll find the complete list of Senators from the 2013-2015 period on the bottom of page 16. And if you look just above the post that you quoted, you'll find the names of almost all the new Senators elected in 2014 (as well as a quick word on the Iran deal). Smiley
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
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« Reply #436 on: August 24, 2015, 05:36:37 PM »
« Edited: August 26, 2015, 06:16:05 PM by Αλληλεγγύη »

2014 Gubernatorial Elections



Democrats: 12
Republicans: 26
Independents: 1

Adding the heavily Democratic DC is enough to tip the scales in Maryland in favor of Anthony Brown. The closeness of the result would still raise some serious questions, but honor would be safe for MD Democrats. Martha Coakley isn't so lucky, since all the addition of Maryland could possibly do is bring Baker's margin below a percentage point. Republicans would gain a seat there, as they would in Erie, where GOP candidate Steve LaTourette could benefit from voter fatigue after 12 years of Democratic rule. The exact opposite scenario would play out in California del Sur, the Democrats' only pickup in this election cycle. Incumbent Steve Cooley is defeated by Raul Ruiz, who managed to shore up Latino turnout as much as you can on a midterm year. On the other hand, Democrats end up narrowly missing many pickup opportunities, most notably Allegheny (where, in a situation similar to Kansas, partisan gravity narrowly thwarted a challenge to the unpopular Tom Corbett) and Rio Grande (where Lamar Smith survived largely due to an abysmal Hispanic turnout). The Republican incumbents also survive in AD, NF, OH, MI, WI, IL, OR, NV and CA. Greg Abbott wins the race to replace Rick Perry in JF, and the controversial Steve Stockman ends up replacing the moderate Hutchinson in the Texas Governor's mansion (God have mercy of the Texans' souls...). On the Democratic side, Maggie Hassan (NE), Andrew Cuomo (NY), Bob Casey (PA), Alex Sink (SF), and Pat Quinn (CH) all win a second term. FWIW, I calculated that the latter would defeat Rauner by 8.6 points in the Chicago area, a testament to how Downstate IL can make a difference. Finally, Gavin Newsom easily wins the race to succeed Jerry Brown in Pacific.


Governorship Control in 2015:

Democrats: 17 (-1)
Republicans: 33 (+2)
Independents: 1 (=)
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Gass3268
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« Reply #437 on: August 24, 2015, 09:01:12 PM »

I really don't see a Republican winning in Erie, the fundamentals change in that state without Kasich and a better Republic. Also I made this:

Adirondack (AD) – Kristen Gillibrand (Democrat – Brunswick – 2)
Adirondack (AD) – Tom Reed (Republican – Corning – 3)
Alabama (AL) – Richard Shelby (Republican – Tuscaloosa – 3)
Alabama (AL) – Jeff Sessions (Republican – Mobile – 2)
Alaska (AK) – Lisa Murkowski (Republican – Anchorage – 3)
Alaska (AK) – Dan Sullivan (Republican – Anchorage – 2)
Allegheny (AY) – Rick Santorum (Republican – Penn Hills – 1)
Allegheny (AY) – Keith Rothfus (Republican – Sewickley – 2)
Arizona (AZ) – John McCain (Republican – Phoenix – 1)
Arizona (AZ) – Jeff Flake (Republican – Mesa – 3)
Arkansas (AR) – John Boozman (Republican – Rogers – 3)
Arkansas (AR) – Tom Cotton (Republican – Dardanelle – 2)
California (CA) – Bill Jones (Republican – Fresno – 1)
California (CA) – Kevin McCarthy (Republican – Bakersfield – 3)

California del Sur (CS) – Loretta Sanchez (Democrat – Lakewood – 3)
California del Sur (CS) – Antonio Villaraigosa (Democrat – Los Angeles – 2)
Chicago (CH) – Lisa Madigan (Democrat – Chicago – 2)
Chicago (CH) – Bobby Rush (Democrat – Chicago – 1)
Colorado (CO) – Michael Bennet (Democrat – Denver – 3)

Colorado (CO) – Cory Gardner (Republican – Yuma – 2)
Connecticut (CT) – Richard Blumenthal (Democrat – Greenwich – 3)
Connecticut (CT) – Chris Murphy (Democrat – Cheshire – 1)
Eire (ER) – Sherrod Brown (Democrat – Cleveland – 3)
Eire (ER) – Tim Ryan (Democrat – Howland – 2)

Georgia (GA) – Johnny Isakson (Republican – Marietta – 3)
Georgia (GA) – David Perdue (Republican – Atlanta – 2)

Hawaii (HI) – Brain Schatz (Democrat – Honolulu – 3)
Hawaii (HI) – Mazie Hirono (Democrat – Honolulu – 1)

Illinois (IL) – Mark Kirk (Republican – Springfield – 3)
Illinois (IL) – Adam Kinzinger (Republican – Channahon – 2)
Indiana (IN) – Dan Coats (Republican – Fort Wayne – 3)

Indiana (IN) – Joe Donnelly (Democrat – Granger – 1)
Iowa (IA) – Chuck Grassley (Republican – New Hartford – 3)
Iowa (IA) – Join Ernst (Republican – Des Moines – 2)
Jefferson (JF) – Kay Granger (Republican – Fort Worth – 1)
Jefferson (JF) – Greg Abbott (Republican – Duncanville – 3)
Kansas (KS) – Pat Roberts (Republican – Dodge City – 2)
Kansas (KS) – Jerry Moran (Republican – Hayes – 3)
Kentucky (KY) – Mitch McConnell (Republican – Louisville – 2)
Kentucky (KY) – Rand Paul (Republican – Bowling Green – 3)

Lincoln (LN) – John Thune (Republican – Sioux Falls – 2)
Lincoln (LN) – Jon Tester (Democrat – Big Sandy – 1)
Louisiana (LA) – David Vitter (Republican – Metairie – 3)
Louisiana (LA) – Bill Cassidy (Republican – Baton Rouge – 2)

Maryland (MD) – Barbara Mikulski (Democrat – Baltimore – 3)
Maryland (MD) – Tom Carper (Democrat – Wilmington – 1)
Massachusetts (MA) – Elizabeth Warren (Democrat – Cambridge – 1)
Massachusetts (MA) – Ed Markey (Democrat – Maiden – 2)
Michigan (MI) – Debbie Stabenow (Democrat – Lansing – 1)
Michigan (MI) – Gary Peters (Democrat – Bloomfield Township – 2)
Minnesota (MN) – Amy Klobuchar (Democrat – St. Paul – 1)
Minnesota (MN) – Al Franken (Democrat – Minneapolis – 2)

Mississippi (MS) – Thad Cochran (Republican – Jackson – 2)
Mississippi (MS) – Roger Wicker (Republican – Tupelo – 1)

Missouri (MO) – Claire McCaskill (Democrat – St. Louis – 1)
Missouri (MO) – Roy Blunt (Republican – Strafford – 3)
Nebraska (NB) – Deb Fischer (Republican – Valentine – 1)
Nebraska (NB) – Ben Sasse (Republican – Fremont – 2)

Nevada (NV) – Harry Reid (Democrat – Searchlight – 3)
Nevada (NV) – Dean Heller (Republican – Carson City – 1)
New England (NE) – Patrick Leahy (Democrat – Middlesex – 1)
New England (NE) – Susan Collins (Republican – Bangor – 2)
New Jersey (NJ) – Bob Menendez (Democrat – North Bergen – 1)
New Jersey (NJ) – Corey Booker (Democrat – Newark – 2)
New Mexico (NM) – Tom Udall (Democrat – Santa Fe – 2)
New Mexico (NM) – Mark Heinrich (Democrat – Albuquerque – 1)
New York (NY) – Chuck Schumer (Democrat – Brooklyn – 3)
New York (NY) – Charlie Rangel (Democrat – New York City – 1)

North Carolina (NC) – Richard Burr (Republican – Winston-Salem – 3)
North Carolina (NC) – Thom Tillis (Republican – Cornelius – 2)
North Florida (NF) – Bill Nelson (Democrat – Tallahassee – 1)
North Florida (NF) – Jeff Miller (Republican – Milton – 3)
Ohio (OH) – Rob Portman (Republican – Cincinnati – 3)
Ohio (OH) – Mike DeWine (Republican – Springfield – 1)
Oregon (OR) – Jim Risch (Republican – Boise – 2)
Oregon (OR) – Cathy McMorris Rodgers (Republican – Deer Park – 3)
Oklahoma (OK) – Jim Inhofe (Republican – Tulsa – 2)
Oklahoma (OK) – James Lankford (Republican – Oklahoma City – 3)

Pacific (PA) – Barbara Boxer (Democrat – Greenbrae – 2)
Pacific (PA) – Kamala Harris (Democrat – San Francisco – 1)
Pennsylvania (PA) – Allyson Schwartz (Democrat – Jenkintown – 1)
Pennsylvania (PA) – Joe Sestak (Democrat – Edgmont Township – 3)

Rio Grande (RG) – John Cornyn (Republican – Austin – 3)
Rio Grande (RG) – Julian Castro (Democrat – San Antonio – 1)
South Carolina (SC) – Lindsey Graham (Republican – Seneca – 2)
South Carolina (SC) – Tim Scott (Republican – Charleston – 3)

South Florida (FL) – Charlie Crist (Independent/Republican – St. Petersburg – 1   
South Florida (FL) – Debbie Wasserman Shultz (Democrat – Weston – 2)
Tennessee (TN) – Lamar Alexander (Republican – Nashville – 2)
Tennessee (TN) – Bob Corker (Republican – Chattanooga – 1)
Texas (TX) – Ted Cruz (Republican – Houston – 1)
Texas (TX) – David Dewhurst (Republican – Houston – 2)
Utah (UT) – Orrin Hatch (Republican – Salt Lake City – 1)
Utah (UT) – Mike Lee (Republican – Alpine – 3)

Virginia (VA) – Mark Warner (Democrat – Alexandria – 2)
Virginia (VA) – Tim Kaine (Democrat – Richmond – 1)
Washington (WA) – Patty Murray (Democrat – Seattle – 3)
Washington (WA) – Ron Wyden (Democrat – Portland – 1)
West Virginia (WV) – Joe Manchin (Democrat – Charleston – 1)

West Virginia (WV) – Shelly Moore Capito (Republican – Charleston – 2)
Wisconsin (WI) – Ron Johnson (Republican – Oshkosh – 3)

Wisconsin (WI) – Tammy Baldwin (Democrat – Madison – 1)
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
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« Reply #438 on: August 25, 2015, 05:25:23 AM »

That's really nice, thanks! Smiley Just one minor thing, in this TL I assumed Boxer would retire in 2014 (as she will in 2016 IRL). RFayette suggested Anna Eshoo as a replacement. Barbara Lee could also be a choice if the State wanted to go full Liberal.


I really don't see a Republican winning in Erie, the fundamentals change in that state without Kasich and a better Republic.

My reasoning was that Erie has roughly the same PVI as OTL Illinois, so if it could happen there with Rauner, it could happen in ER as well. Granted it's not the most likely scenario, and would require not only a bad year for Democrats, but also a particularly unpopular incumbent (no idea if Lee Fisher fits the profile, tbh). I also figured it would be better to have more than 4 States changing hands, as there were 6 IRL.
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rpryor03
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« Reply #439 on: August 25, 2015, 07:51:59 AM »

That's really nice, thanks! Smiley Just one minor thing, in this TL I assumed Boxer would retire in 2014 (as she will in 2016 IRL). RFayette suggested Anna Eshoo as a replacement. Barbara Lee could also be a choice if the State wanted to go full Liberal.


I really don't see a Republican winning in Erie, the fundamentals change in that state without Kasich and a better Republic.

My reasoning was that Erie has roughly the same PVI as OTL Illinois, so if it could happen there with Rauner, it could happen in ER as well. Granted it's not the most likely scenario, and would require not only a bad year for Democrats, but also a particularly unpopular incumbent (no idea if Lee Fisher fits the profile, tbh). I also figured it would be better to have more than 4 States changing hands, as there were 6 IRL.

Lee Fisher is a pretty bad campaigner iirc.
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
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« Reply #440 on: August 25, 2015, 01:46:27 PM »
« Edited: August 25, 2015, 01:48:10 PM by Αλληλεγγύη »

Lee Fisher is a pretty bad campaigner iirc.

Then it all comes around. Wink


2016 Gubernatorial Predictions



Both parties could, in a best-case scenario, sweep 6 out of 8 governorships (although the Democrats' real ceiling is probably at 5). Maggie Hassan and Jay Inslee are both safe, due to their States being somewhat more left-wing than IRL. So is Matt Mead,  a reasonably popular incumbent in a solid-R (although somewhat friendly to Democrats at the local level) State. Mike Pence is probably favored in Indiana due to the removal of the Chicagoland counties, but the election could still easily go either way. Overall, expect no change or R+1.
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
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« Reply #441 on: August 25, 2015, 02:47:07 PM »

All right, the Governors run-up is over. I'll wrap up this thread with an overview of the composition of the House of Representatives and of State Legislatures for the 2013-2015 period.
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NeverAgain
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #442 on: August 25, 2015, 03:00:51 PM »

Sad that this is ending ;(
Maybe you could do different states now? Cheesy
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
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« Reply #443 on: August 25, 2015, 03:38:49 PM »

Sad that this is ending ;(
Maybe you could do different states now? Cheesy

I have other projects in mind at the moment - much, much bigger than this one which took me 6 frigging years to finish. Tongue And I'll also probably be somewhat busier for the next couple years, starting my PhD and all. So I'm afraid I can't do that. Wink
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
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« Reply #444 on: August 25, 2015, 05:08:57 PM »
« Edited: August 25, 2015, 05:24:12 PM by Αλληλεγγύη »

On the other hand, you (and all this thread's readers) can still contribute to this project, by drawing the CDs of the new States! Anyone wants to take a look at one of the Californias, Floridas or Texases? Smiley
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NeverAgain
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #445 on: August 25, 2015, 10:11:27 PM »

Sad that this is ending ;(
Maybe you could do different states now? Cheesy

I have other projects in mind at the moment - much, much bigger than this one which took me 6 frigging years to finish. Tongue And I'll also probably be somewhat busier for the next couple years, starting my PhD and all. So I'm afraid I can't do that. Wink
6 years, Smeesh! Wow, I guess I didn't look how far back this went. Congratz on this btw, excited for your new projects!
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Figueira
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« Reply #446 on: August 26, 2015, 01:59:56 PM »

Thanks for doing this, Antonio. I really enjoyed it; this is one of the threads I checked often when I was lurking.
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
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« Reply #447 on: August 26, 2015, 02:08:54 PM »

6 years, Smeesh! Wow, I guess I didn't look how far back this went. Congratz on this btw, excited for your new projects!

Well, to be fair, I completely rebooted it about a year ago (and before then it had been dead for 4 years), so that's when I did 90% of the wok.


Thanks for doing this, Antonio. I really enjoyed it; this is one of the threads I checked often when I was lurking.

Thanks! Smiley It's great to see I've actually managed to contribute something so appreciated on this forum.
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
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« Reply #448 on: August 26, 2015, 04:56:39 PM »

2012 House of Representatives Elections


Democrats: 207 (+6) - including Bernie Sanders, formally I-NE
Republicans: 229 (-5)

Finally a branch of government where Democrats benefit from the States redrawing! Cheesy After getting severely diminished in the Electoral College, the Senate and Governorship, the Dems certainly could use six more House seats. The map would still be stacked against Democrats (remember than in 2012 they actually won the PV), and there would still be lots of gerrymandering throughout the country (though more evenly spread between the two parties, thanks to golden opportunities like New York, Erie, Chicago, Maryland and Washington). Still, in this scenario Democrats would only be 12 seats away from a majority, certainly a much more attainable target. So, in a reasonably good year, the House might be up for grabs.

Most State splits end up working to the advantage of Democrats. For example, in Pennsylvania, a fair map would net the Democrats two more seats than what they actually won in the corresponding area (6 instead of 4). I've guesstimated the same outcome in South Florida (although that might be excessive). In Ohio, controlling Erie would allow Democrats to replace the GOP's abomination with their own gerrymander, and double their delegation from 3 to 6. Down South, all Republicans can take is one more seat, meaning that the two States' partisan balance 6 to 11 instead of 4 to 12 (one seat is gained in the apportionment). Meanwhile, the Texas split leaves the same number of Democrats, but takes away one Republican. Another safe-D seat is gained with DC's inclusion into Maryland, finally giving Washingtonians the representation they deserve. Another seat shifts from GOP to Dem hands due to the new borders of Washington State. Finally, Republicans lose one seat due to MN only getting 7 in apportionment (presumably it's Michelle Bachmann who gets axed off).

Republicans have their silver linings too. Although they are forced to cede one of their two NY seats to Democrats, they more than make up for it in Adirondack, netting two seats from them thanks to an elaborate gerrymander. They could also possibly draw a 6 lean-R districts in Illinois, but I've settled for a 5-1 map to make those 5 CDs absolutely safe. Overall, this means that one more Republican would represent the area covered by CH and IL than IRL (but the same number of Democrats). Finally, Republicans might find a way to take one of New England's five seats due to a more favorable CD makeup around southern NH).

The California split doesn't change the partisan balance (possibly, Republicans could take one seat away from Dems in CA, but I've decided to take the safe route and leave it at 6-4). Neither do the tweaks to Nevada's border or the exchange of territory between MI and WI. Merging the four inland-NW States into Lincoln still keeps all of them Atlas blue. And MA + RI still equals an all-Dem congressional delegation.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #449 on: August 26, 2015, 05:02:19 PM »

What about Raul Ruiz for SF Governorship?
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