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News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

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Author Topic: Alternate US States  (Read 154625 times)
Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
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United States


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« Reply #450 on: August 26, 2015, 05:07:58 PM »

What about Raul Ruiz for SF Governorship?

You mean CS? Sure, he sounds perfect for the job. Smiley
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Maxwell
mah519
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Germany


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« Reply #451 on: August 26, 2015, 06:06:11 PM »
« Edited: August 26, 2015, 06:09:37 PM by Maxwell »

What about Raul Ruiz for SF Governorship?

You mean CS? Sure, he sounds perfect for the job. Smiley

Oh yes.

and for Eerie Governor I was thinking either David Joyce or Steve LaTourette.
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
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« Reply #452 on: August 26, 2015, 06:20:55 PM »

The 2014 post has been updated to reflect these contributions. Wink For Erie, I've chosen LaTourette as he's the more seasoned politician.
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rpryor03
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Bahamas


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« Reply #453 on: August 26, 2015, 06:49:13 PM »

The 2014 post has been updated to reflect these contributions. Wink For Erie, I've chosen LaTourette as he's the more seasoned politician.

Tony, Steve LaTourette found out in 2014 that he had pancreatic cancer. Joyce is the better option. Or you could go with John Husted from the State Senate.
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
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« Reply #454 on: August 26, 2015, 06:59:22 PM »

Ah, too bad. Well, Husted apparently managed to fool Ohioans into believing he was a sensible moderate when he ran for SoS, presumably he could do that again when running for governor. I still think Joyce doesn't have the resume of a gubernatorial candidate.
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rpryor03
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« Reply #455 on: August 26, 2015, 07:13:42 PM »

Ah, too bad. Well, Husted apparently managed to fool Ohioans into believing he was a sensible moderate when he ran for SoS, presumably he could do that again when running for governor. I still think Joyce doesn't have the resume of a gubernatorial candidate.

Shoot. Not Husted, Treasurer Josh Mandel. (And Lt. Gov. Mary Taylor as well)
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
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« Reply #456 on: August 26, 2015, 07:16:20 PM »

Isn't Mandel a bit of a far-right wacko? Maybe Taylor then...
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rpryor03
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« Reply #457 on: August 26, 2015, 07:17:49 PM »

Isn't Mandel a bit of a far-right wacko? Maybe Taylor then...

Somehow he's been re-elected twice, but yeah. He's a wack.
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
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« Reply #458 on: August 26, 2015, 07:25:20 PM »

Yeah, as I thought. Mary Taylor it is then.

Anyway, to avoid my pretty map I worked so hard on from getting forgotten at the bottom of the page, here's a comparison of the RL House delegations map and the one from this scenario.

Actual States:


New States:
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
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« Reply #459 on: August 27, 2015, 08:30:42 AM »
« Edited: August 27, 2015, 08:32:38 AM by Αλληλεγγύη »

And finally, let's conclude this project with...

State Legislatures Control in 2014


Democrats: 18 (+1)
Republicans: 29 (+1)
Split: 4 (-1)

Both Democrats and Republican control one more State capitol, at the expense of split legislatures... So we end up with very polarized local governments.
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
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E: -7.87, S: -3.83

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« Reply #460 on: August 27, 2015, 09:53:39 AM »

Overall, in 2014, there were 13 States with a Democratic Governor and a Democratic-controlled Legislature, 25 where all branches were in Republican hands, and 13 with some form of divided government. IRL, these figures were 13/24/13. So there is virtually no change.
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
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« Reply #461 on: August 27, 2015, 04:25:27 PM »

Well, guys, this project was really fun to do, and I'm really glad so many of you enjoyed following it. Smiley I hope I will some day be able to replicate its success with my even bigger project. Wink
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Enderman
Jack Enderman
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« Reply #462 on: August 27, 2015, 05:09:53 PM »

Amazing work Antonio! I hope the next big project comes soon Smiley
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
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« Reply #463 on: April 24, 2016, 10:57:08 PM »

Been a while, but I figured I might bump this with some results for the 2016 Primary! Smiley


New York Democratic Primary



Hillary: 820205 (62.43%)
Bernie: 493564 (37.57%)



Adirondack Democratic Primary



Bernie: 259157 (53.63%)
Hillary: 224094 (46.37%)
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
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« Reply #464 on: April 24, 2016, 11:18:07 PM »

New York Republican Primary



Drumpf: 272996 (66.42%)
Kasich: 88579 (21.55%)
Cruz: 46206 (11.24%)
Other: 3256 (0.79%)


Adirondack Republican Primary



Drumpf: 242095 (53.61%)
Kasich: 125635 (27.82%)
Cruz: 78028 (17.28%)
Other: 5798 (1.28%)


Pretty surprising Cruz couldn't even come second in AD.
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Goldwater
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« Reply #465 on: April 24, 2016, 11:55:18 PM »

It's back! Cheesy
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
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« Reply #466 on: April 25, 2016, 12:20:11 AM »


To a very limited extent, but yeah, it is. Wink

I'll take any requests for calculating results in other States.
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Vosem
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« Reply #467 on: April 25, 2016, 01:39:42 AM »

I think trump still wins alt-Illinois and South Florida, but it would be very narrow over Cruz and Rubio, respectively, and I'd love to see the exact calculations. North Florida and Chicagoland would be rather foregone conclusions Tongue
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
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E: -7.87, S: -3.83

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« Reply #468 on: April 25, 2016, 01:55:22 PM »

Here's the IL split! Smiley


Chicago Republican Primary (IL segment only)



Drumpf: 311709 (39.26%)
Cruz: 194948 (24.55%)
Kasich: 191862 (24.16%)
Lavenous: 78967 (9.95%)
Other: 16511 (2.08%)


Illinois Republican Primary



Drumpf: 250755 (38.24%)
Cruz: 243287 (37.10%)
Kasich: 94256 (14.37%)
Lavenous: 47714 (7.28%)
Other: 19739 (3.01%)


Interestingly, Drumpf did about as well in each, and the main difference between CH and IL is in Cruz and Kasich's scores.
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Vosem
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« Reply #469 on: April 25, 2016, 02:32:46 PM »


Nice work, Antonio! Fascinating stuff. Cruz actually comes much closer than I expected in alt-Illinois; he would probably have won had an actual primary like that been held, since his attention could've been more focused.

I think trump still wins alt-Illinois and South Florida, but it would be very narrow over Cruz and Rubio, respectively, and I'd love to see the exact calculations. North Florida and Chicagoland would be rather foregone conclusions Tongue

Trump's worst areas in FL after Miami were Orlando and Tallahassee, and they are in his North Florida.  The remarkable thing about FL was how consistent Trump's margin was everywhere in the state outside of those three cities.

Yeah, but Miami would absolutely dominate the political life of South Florida; it would be a massive presence. Even in real life, Rubio did better than his statewide totals in just 7/67 counties in FL (Dade, Broward, Hillsborough, Orange, Seminole, St. John's, and Leon), and worse in 60/67. He received 27% statewide while crossing 30% in just two counties (Orange and Dade).

I don't think Miami's dominance over the rest of South Florida, especially in a Republican primary, is quite enough for Rubio to win. But I'd love to see how much closer he gets.
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
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E: -7.87, S: -3.83

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« Reply #470 on: April 25, 2016, 03:01:48 PM »


Nice work, Antonio! Fascinating stuff. Cruz actually comes much closer than I expected in alt-Illinois; he would probably have won had an actual primary like that been held, since his attention could've been more focused.

In general (as seen in the past few GE results), alt-Illinois looks a lot like Missouri, another State that was very close between Drumpf and Cruz that same day. Not sure if that means Cruz would have won it, since MO and IL already were the two States he was contesting, but it would certainly have made for an interesting matchup.

SF/NF next, then! Smiley
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msnmllr
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United States


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« Reply #471 on: April 25, 2016, 05:06:17 PM »

I assume that Ohio will be more competitive for the Republican Primary, whereas Erie should be safely Kasich
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bagelman
Junior Chimp
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United States


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« Reply #472 on: April 25, 2016, 10:01:44 PM »

I assume that Ohio will be more competitive for the Republican Primary, whereas Erie should be safely Kasich

The fact that Lee Fisher, not John Kasich, is the Gov. of Erie might make thinks more competitive in my neck of the woods. Kasich might end up having to fight for either or both Erie and Ohio.
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
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E: -7.87, S: -3.83

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« Reply #473 on: April 25, 2016, 11:14:10 PM »

No maps from now on, because they take forever to make, and they're not very useful since you can see just as much on the regular State maps.


South Florida Republican Primary

Drumpf: 550970 (44.68%)
Lavenous: 364432 (29.55%)
Cruz: 182807 (14.82%)
Kasich: 91921 (7.45%)
Other: 43082 (3.49%)


North Florida Republican Primary

Drumpf: 528900 (46.86%)
Lavenous: 274229 (24.30%)
Cruz: 222084 (19.68%)
Kasich: 68055 (6.03%)
Other: 35325 (3.13%)


Once again, the Drumpf vote was surprisingly evenly spread.
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bagelman
Junior Chimp
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United States


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E: -4.90, S: -4.17

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« Reply #474 on: November 10, 2016, 05:44:30 PM »

So, how does the '16 general election look in this world?
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