Alternate US States

[rpryor03]

YES!

[rpryor03]

Very good job, AV! I've enjoyed it.

[rpryor03]

Very good, Antonio! Just a suggestion, maybe do a 2014 Update with new Governors and Senators to finish it off?

[rpryor03]

My 2014 Senate Predictions

NE: Susan Collins (R HOLD)
MA: Ed Markey (D HOLD)
AD: Richard Hanna (R GAIN)
AY: Keith Rothfus (R GAIN)
SF: Marco Rubio (R GAIN)
TX: David Dewhurst (R HOLD)
ER: Tim Ryan (D HOLD)
CH: Lisa Madigan (D HOLD)
IL: Adam Kinzinger (R GAIN)
MI: Gary Peters (D HOLD)
LI: John Thune (R HOLD)
OR: Jim Risch (R HOLD)
PC: Anna Eshoo (D HOLD)
CS: Antonio Villaraigosa (D HOLD)
AR: Tom Cotton (R GAIN)
CO: Cory Gardner (R GAIN)
IA: Joni Ernst (R GAIN)
LA: Bill Cassidy (R GAIN)
NC: Thom Tillis (R GAIN)
WV: Shelley Moore Capito (R GAIN)
AK: Dan Sullivan (R GAIN)
Rest of holds as OTL.

Republicans: 60
Democrats: 42

[rpryor03]

That's really nice, thanks! Just one minor thing, in this TL I assumed Boxer would retire in 2014 (as she will in 2016 IRL). RFayette suggested Anna Eshoo as a replacement. Barbara Lee could also be a choice if the State wanted to go full Liberal.

I really don't see a Republican winning in Erie, the fundamentals change in that state without Kasich and a better Republic.

My reasoning was that Erie has roughly the same PVI as OTL Illinois, so if it could happen there with Rauner, it could happen in ER as well. Granted it's not the most likely scenario, and would require not only a bad year for Democrats, but also a particularly unpopular incumbent (no idea if Lee Fisher fits the profile, tbh). I also figured it would be better to have more than 4 States changing hands, as there were 6 IRL.

Lee Fisher is a pretty bad campaigner iirc.

[rpryor03]

The 2014 post has been updated to reflect these contributions. For Erie, I've chosen LaTourette as he's the more seasoned politician.

Tony, Steve LaTourette found out in 2014 that he had pancreatic cancer. Joyce is the better option. Or you could go with John Husted from the State Senate.

[rpryor03]

Ah, too bad. Well, Husted apparently managed to fool Ohioans into believing he was a sensible moderate when he ran for SoS, presumably he could do that again when running for governor. I still think Joyce doesn't have the resume of a gubernatorial candidate.

Shoot. Not Husted, Treasurer Josh Mandel. (And Lt. Gov. Mary Taylor as well)

[rpryor03]

Isn't Mandel a bit of a far-right wacko? Maybe Taylor then...

Somehow he's been re-elected twice, but yeah. He's a wack.