Here's the IL split! 
Nice work, Antonio! Fascinating stuff. Cruz actually comes much closer than I expected in alt-Illinois; he would probably have won had an actual primary like that been held, since his attention could've been more focused.
I think trump still wins alt-Illinois and South Florida, but it would be very narrow over Cruz and Rubio, respectively, and I'd love to see the exact calculations. North Florida and Chicagoland would be rather foregone conclusions 
Trump's worst areas in FL after Miami were Orlando and Tallahassee, and they are in his North Florida. The remarkable thing about FL was how consistent Trump's margin was everywhere in the state outside of those three cities.
Yeah, but Miami would absolutely dominate the political life of South Florida; it would be a massive presence. Even in real life, Rubio did better than his statewide totals in just 7/67 counties in FL (Dade, Broward, Hillsborough, Orange, Seminole, St. John's, and Leon), and worse in 60/67. He received 27% statewide while crossing 30% in just two counties (Orange and Dade).
I don't think Miami's dominance over the rest of South Florida, especially in a Republican primary, is quite enough for Rubio to win. But I'd love to see how much closer he gets.
