NJ: PPP: Christie has strong lead

[Rowan]

NJ GOV(PPP)

Christie 44%
Corzine 35%
Daggett 13%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_NJ_915819.pdf

[Former Moderate]

Christie up by 9 is fun to see, but Daggett is not at 13%.

I found this part of the poll to be rather interesting, though:

It’s hard to say whether Daggett is hurting Christie or Corzine. He’s getting 15% of the
Democratic vote to 7% of the Republican vote, but his supporters say their second choice
is Christie by a 48-32 margin. His supporters seem to be Democratic leaning voters who
can’t quite bring themselves to vote for a Republican.

[Verily]

Or you could have just listened to me, Moderate. You didn't need a poll to tell you that Daggett's voters were those who normally vote Democratic, absolutely won't vote for Corzine, but are mushy about voting for Christie.

Anyway, 9 is not "strong", and it's contraction of 5 since their last poll (-6 for Christie, -1 for Corzine). Still Christie's race to lose, of course.

Also interesting that "Other" (aka Asian) favors Corzine.

[Rowan]

Their last poll didn't include Daggett so it's non-comparable.

[Rowan]

If Barack Obama won the presidency by 9 points, would you call that a "strong" win?

[Verily]

If Barack Obama won the presidency by 9 points, would you call that a "strong" win?

Yes, but that would be the actual victory, not a poll. Polls have margins of error. Plus, the Presidency is more polarized than local races. A lead is "strong" when it's at least in double-digits; i.e., it's a lead that's very, very unlikely to change in the last months before an election. Single-digit leads can and do change.

[Former Moderate]

Or you could have just listened to me, Moderate. You didn't need a poll to tell you that Daggett's voters were those who normally vote Democratic, absolutely won't vote for Corzine, but are mushy about voting for Christie.

Of course, we didn't, but it's always nice to have a poll highlight what you've been thinking all along.

Anyway:

It doesn't matter whether or not you want to say nine points is a "strong" lead (though it seems almost ridiculously arbitrary to say ten is strong and nine is not). What matters is that Corzine is still mired in the mid-30s, hasn't broken out of the 30s, and has yet to show his team has a legit plan to get out of the 30s.  It should be clear by now that making Christie an "unacceptable" alternative isn't enough, and it should be just as clear that outspending Christie on ads (like he's been doing all summer) isn't enough.  This is a product that no one wants to buy.

Is nine points a strong lead, maybe not.  Does Christie have a strong chance to win this thing?  That's almost an understatement.

[Inks.LWC Supports Chuck Hagel]

Database entry: http://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/GOVERNOR/2009/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=3420090914108

[Former Moderate]

PPP is going to be releasing polling information about "Booker for Governor" and "Pallone for Governor" later in the week (Thursday).

You know, just in case.

[Former Moderate]

Also in the PPP poll: 14% of Republicans in NJ think Obama is the Anti-Christ. 32% of Democrats think GWB had prior knowledge of the 9/11 attacks. Lots of crazy to go around.

[Mr. Morden]

Also in the PPP poll: 14% of Republicans in NJ think Obama is the Anti-Christ. 32% of Democrats think GWB had prior knowledge of the 9/11 attacks. Lots of crazy to go around.

Yeah, that's discussed here:

http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2009/09/extremism-in-new-jersey.html

I'm not sure if I buy that people really believe these things that they claim to believe.  I tend to subscribe to the "symbolic belief" theory:

http://www.juliansanchez.com/2009/08/03/symbolic-belief/

[Holmes]

I just saw a poll with Corzine +1... 20% undecided.

NJ polls are too all over the place, I'm probably gonna ignore them until November.

[Former Moderate]

I just saw a poll with Corzine +1... 20% undecided.

What?  Where?  You're not talking about the "registered voters" sample of the Monmouth poll where Corzine had 41% to Christie's 40%, are you?

NJ polls are too all over the place,

Huh? With the exception of the Democracy Corp (partisan D) poll, Christie's lead has been remarkably stable and constant over the last few weeks: PPP +9, Monmouth/Gannett +8, Rasmussen +8, Quinnipiac +10.

I'm probably gonna ignore them until November.

Whatever gets you to sleep at night.