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Hashemite
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« on: September 18, 2009, 09:24:27 am »
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On July 14 2002, Maxime Brunerie does not miss and Jacques Chirac is killed, sending a wave of panic through the crowd. Brunerie fails to commit suicide since the crowd tackles him and he's quickly arrested.

Christian Poncelet, President of the Senate, becames Interim President. Snap elections must be organized, so quickly after the first 2002 elections.

Is Juppe the candidate of the new UMP? Who does the weak and divided PS put up? Does Le Pen do as well? What about Bayrou and the others?

(btw: this is just for discussion, and not based on any personal desires about the events which unfolded that day to have worked)

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« Reply #1 on: September 18, 2009, 09:47:39 am »
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I don't see why Jospin would not be the PS candidate regardless. The campaign would definitely be portrayed, even from the beginning, as everyone against the far-right, though, with resultant extremely high turnout and a low vote for Le Pen. I think you might also see a united front, or at least the attempt at one, by the left and far-left parties that could overtake the PS and make it to the second round.

Also, no Chevenement since all of the attention is on the far-right rather than the EU.
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big bad fab
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« Reply #2 on: September 18, 2009, 10:32:57 am »
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(btw: this is just for discussion, and not based on any personal desires about the events which unfolded that day to have worked)

And you think we'll believ in what you write ?!? Wink

Well, a very interesting what if (even if utterly "pointless" Grin). I don't know how I don't even think about it !!

I think all the tiny parties of the left and centre-left would have rallied the Socialist candidate: no Chevènement, no Left Radical, no Green (yes...).
I even think the PCF wouldn't have put up a candidate (see 1974).

For the PS, given the "emergency",
either Jospin, untied from his promise to drop politics, because of the national interest, and with 5 years as Prime Minister,
or Hollande, because he is the first secretary.

The far-left wouldn't have prevented itself to put up its usual candidates: "the system is dead, vive la Révolution". And they would have competed as divided as usual (why on Earth would they unite ?)
But due to financial and logistical problems with this new election on the spot, the PCI wouldn't have been able to put up a candidate.
So, just Laguiller and Besancenot.

On the right, no Madelin, no Boutin, no Bayrou (because he hadn't yet cut all the links and because of the mainstream right candidate).
Well, for the new UMP,
either Alain Juppé, still loyal to Chirac, "the best of us" (le meilleur d'entre nous, as Chirac had kept saying), the putative leader of the new UMP,
or Jean-Pierre Raffarin, just because he is the incumbent PM and so is, physically, the state continuity.
(In any case, Juppé because he is "kind" and from Bordeaux, Raffarin because he is a former UDF and "giscardien", Bayrou wouldn't have been candidate).

No CPNT. Of course no Mégret (too indebted at the time and a Brunerie former member of the MNR).
Le Pen would have been candidate, to "save the nation". And he would have been reduced to his strong loyal basis of the time.

So,
Le Pen
Laguiller
Besancenot
Jospin/Hollande: I think that would have been Hollande, because of Jospin having been personally wounded and even more criticized for not having been able to beat Le Pen and so...)
Juppé/Raffarin: as Raffarin wasn't strong yet, Juppé would have probably been the candidate)
and you may add a clown like Bernard-Henri Lévy, in the name of Human Rights, Freedom, Enlightenment, etc

Le Pen 12% (back to the basis; harmed by huge media campaign and remorseful abstention)
Laguiller 5% (high but not higher that her usual high)
Besancenot 7% (higher because of young voters turning en masse to him)
Lévy 9% (the only candidate to speak for the Human Rights, but a failed campaign)
Hollande 28% (many on the left feeling guilty and providing Hollande with a historically high result)
Juppé 39% (a strong "légitimiste" vote)

And then, Juppé 54% - Hollande 46% (Hollande can't attack Juppé too harshly and the "légitimiste" vote secures a clear victory for Juppé)

Victoire !
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Antonio V
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« Reply #3 on: September 18, 2009, 12:29:51 pm »
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Juppé wins easily.
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HashCAN     americans saw the EP elections and people cringing at Europeans being morons and electing Nazis; so they massively said "NO" and decided to prove that they're still bigger morons



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« Reply #4 on: September 18, 2009, 01:12:51 pm »
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The PS candidate would probably be Hollande. Jospin would win the nomination without any significant opposition if he ran, but this would come just three months after he announced he was leaving politics, and I don't know if he would have it in him to run in another presidential election.

The parliamentary left would rally around Hollande and the parliamentary right around Juppé. Mégret would not run, and le Pen would reach 12 to 14% (third place). Juppé would defeat Hollande decisively in the runoff (although Jospin would stand a better chance).
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Hashemite
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« Reply #5 on: September 18, 2009, 05:10:05 pm »
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aaaaaaaand my thoughts on what I asked.

Jospin would not come back, since coming back in August/September after announcing in April that he would leave politics definitively. When Jospin dies politically, he usually waits 2-3 years before coming back to Save the World. Hollande would probably be the compromise default candidate backed by everybody in the party except the loonies. And yeah, certainly no MDC or RadSoc candidate, like in 2007. Not to sure about Greenies and PCF, since egomania runs higher than average there, but it's not a stretch to assume that Hollande builds a temporary Mitterrand-like coalition, though Hollande is no Mitterrand, either for the good or bad.

Juppé is the candidate of the UMP. Obviously, no Madelin or Boutin this time. And no Bayrou with Juppé. Juppé, who controlled the UMP back then, would probably have struck a deal to keep Raffarin as PM if he won.

Le Pen would be demonized quasi-universally and Brutus wouldn't run, or if he did, it'd be massive political suicide. As if Brutus wasn't already dead, assuming he was even born, if you catch my drift.

Yeah, the usual Trot loonies again, long like Trotsky, long live the Revolution.

Results - Le Pen is obviously out and his vote drops a bit, Juppé leads by far due to some sympathy vote + popularity of Raffarin gov't (the honeymoon wasn't over, it ended only with the 2003 heat wave, basically) + weak left, Hollande does erase the April 21 nightmare and probably could become a more solid leader of the PS, Trots do well due to youth vote + some plural left voters not voting for Hollande: Juppé 39%, Hollande 31%, Le Pen 14%, Besancenot 8%, Laguiller 6%, Others if they exists 2%

And yeah, Juppé wins easily.




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big bad fab
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« Reply #6 on: September 19, 2009, 11:41:35 am »
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Fine to see we all agree.
But mine is funnier, with BHL... nah Wink
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Benwah [why on Earth do I post something] Courseyay
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« Reply #7 on: September 19, 2009, 12:07:07 pm »
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Also, no Chevenement since all of the attention is on the far-right rather than the EU.

Just a matter of fact:

The attention has never been on EU during this election, if that was what you meant.
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14/01/2011: Tunisia!!
11/02/2011: Egypt!
20/10/2011: Libya
02/09/2013: Abandon of Syria...
...and of, well, 'all of that'...

Money became totally unfair.
Money became totally senseless.
Let's make Money totally useless...

??/??/20??: EU UU!!

Maybe a little update:

Religion Tradition is people's opium...
Hashemite
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« Reply #8 on: September 19, 2009, 01:04:47 pm »
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Also, no Chevenement since all of the attention is on the far-right rather than the EU.

Just a matter of fact:

The attention has never been on EU during this election, if that was what you meant.

Quite right. The idea that many French voters vote on the EU is a urban myth.
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