(btw: this is just for discussion, and not based on any personal desires about the events which unfolded that day to have worked)
And you think we'll believ in what you write ?!?
Well, a
very interesting what if (even if utterly "pointless"
). I don't know how I don't even think about it !!
I think all the tiny parties of the left and centre-left would have rallied the Socialist candidate: no Chevènement, no Left Radical, no Green (yes...).
I even think the PCF wouldn't have put up a candidate (see 1974).
For the PS, given the "emergency",
either Jospin, untied from his promise to drop politics, because of the national interest, and with 5 years as Prime Minister,
or Hollande, because he is the first secretary.
The far-left wouldn't have prevented itself to put up its usual candidates: "the system is dead, vive la Révolution". And they would have competed as divided as usual (why on Earth would they unite ?)
But due to financial and logistical problems with this new election on the spot, the PCI wouldn't have been able to put up a candidate.
So, just Laguiller and Besancenot.
On the right, no Madelin, no Boutin, no Bayrou (because he hadn't yet cut all the links and because of the mainstream right candidate).
Well, for the new UMP,
either Alain Juppé, still loyal to Chirac, "the best of us" (
le meilleur d'entre nous, as Chirac had kept saying), the putative leader of the new UMP,
or Jean-Pierre Raffarin, just because he is the incumbent PM and so is, physically, the state continuity.
(In any case, Juppé because he is "kind" and from Bordeaux, Raffarin because he is a former UDF and "giscardien", Bayrou wouldn't have been candidate).
No CPNT. Of course no Mégret (too indebted at the time and a Brunerie former member of the MNR).
Le Pen would have been candidate, to "save the nation". And he would have been reduced to his strong loyal basis of the time.
So,
Le PenLaguillerBesancenotJospin/
Hollande: I think that would have been Hollande, because of Jospin having been personally wounded and even more criticized for not having been able to beat Le Pen and so...)
Juppé/Raffarin: as Raffarin wasn't strong yet, Juppé would have probably been the candidate)
and you may add a clown like
Bernard-Henri Lévy, in the name of Human Rights, Freedom, Enlightenment, etc
Le Pen 12% (back to the basis; harmed by huge media campaign and remorseful abstention)
Laguiller 5% (high but not higher that her usual high)
Besancenot 7% (higher because of young voters turning
en masse to him)
Lévy 9% (the only candidate to speak for the Human Rights, but a failed campaign)
Hollande 28% (many on the left feeling guilty and providing Hollande with a historically high result)
Juppé 39% (a strong "légitimiste" vote)
And then, Juppé 54% - Hollande 46% (Hollande can't attack Juppé too harshly and the "légitimiste" vote secures a clear victory for Juppé)
Victoire !
