France 2002...

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On July 14 2002, Maxime Brunerie does not miss and Jacques Chirac is killed, sending a wave of panic through the crowd. Brunerie fails to commit suicide since the crowd tackles him and he's quickly arrested.

Christian Poncelet, President of the Senate, becames Interim President. Snap elections must be organized, so quickly after the first 2002 elections.

Is Juppe the candidate of the new UMP? Who does the weak and divided PS put up? Does Le Pen do as well? What about Bayrou and the others?

(btw: this is just for discussion, and not based on any personal desires about the events which unfolded that day to have worked)

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aaaaaaaand my thoughts on what I asked.

Jospin would not come back, since coming back in August/September after announcing in April that he would leave politics definitively. When Jospin dies politically, he usually waits 2-3 years before coming back to Save the World. Hollande would probably be the compromise default candidate backed by everybody in the party except the loonies. And yeah, certainly no MDC or RadSoc candidate, like in 2007. Not to sure about Greenies and PCF, since egomania runs higher than average there, but it's not a stretch to assume that Hollande builds a temporary Mitterrand-like coalition, though Hollande is no Mitterrand, either for the good or bad.

Juppé is the candidate of the UMP. Obviously, no Madelin or Boutin this time. And no Bayrou with Juppé. Juppé, who controlled the UMP back then, would probably have struck a deal to keep Raffarin as PM if he won.

Le Pen would be demonized quasi-universally and Brutus wouldn't run, or if he did, it'd be massive political suicide. As if Brutus wasn't already dead, assuming he was even born, if you catch my drift.

Yeah, the usual Trot loonies again, long like Trotsky, long live the Revolution.

Results - Le Pen is obviously out and his vote drops a bit, Juppé leads by far due to some sympathy vote + popularity of Raffarin gov't (the honeymoon wasn't over, it ended only with the 2003 heat wave, basically) + weak left, Hollande does erase the April 21 nightmare and probably could become a more solid leader of the PS, Trots do well due to youth vote + some plural left voters not voting for Hollande: Juppé 39%, Hollande 31%, Le Pen 14%, Besancenot 8%, Laguiller 6%, Others if they exists 2%

And yeah, Juppé wins easily.

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Also, no Chevenement since all of the attention is on the far-right rather than the EU.

Just a matter of fact:

The attention has never been on EU during this election, if that was what you meant.

Quite right. The idea that many French voters vote on the EU is a urban myth.