In 2010- Democrats will gain seats in Senate/Governorship- lose seats in House

[nkpatel1279]

Governor- (2009)- Democrats are likely to lose the Governorship in NJ and VA.
In 2010. Democrats are going to lose the Governorship in KS,NY(if Paterson is the nominee),OK,TN,and WY(assuming Freudenthal does not sue the term limits law.). plus they have a 50-50 chance of losing (CO,MI,PA,and WI). MA is likely to go Independent(Cahill) than Republican.
Democrats are going to pick up AL(Davis-if Moore is the GOP Nominee),AZ(Goddard),CA(Brown),FL(Sink),HI(Abercrombie),MN(Rybak),NV(Reid/Goodman-if Gibbons is the GOP Nominee),and VT(Racine/Markowitz), RI is a Tossup between (Lynch/Chafee).
Democrats will hold on to AR(Beebe),CO(50-50 chance Ritter-D wins),IL(Quinn),IA(Culver),ME(OPEN),MD(O'Malley),MA(Patrick-D or Cahill-I),MI(50-50 chance Cherry-D wins), NH(Lynch),NJ(50-50 chance Corzine wins),NM(Denish),NY(if Cuomo is the nominee),OH(Strickland),OR(Kitzhaber),PA(if Onoranto/Wagner is the nominee),and WI(50-50 chance Barrett/Lawton wins the general election.

[Former Moderate]

thankfully this post is definitive and no discussion or reply is needed

good job neal

[nkpatel1279]

Republicans will hold on to AL(if Moore is not the GOP nominee),AK(Parnell),CT(Rell),GA(Oxedine),ID(Otter),NE(Heineman),SC(OPEN),SD(OPEN),TX(Hutchison/Perry),UT(Hebert).
Democrats will likely net gain 2 seats in the Governorship.
US Senate (2010). Republicans have 6 OPEN Seats (FL,KS,KY,MO,NH,and OH). FL stays Republican- due to Charlie Crist candidacy, KS stays Republican due to lack of top tier Democratic candidates, KY(Mongiardo/Conway vs Grayson) is a tossup but their is a greater than 50-50 chance it will remain Republican. MO(Carnahan vs Blunt)-Definite pick up for Democrats. NH(Hodes vs Ayotte) is tossup but Democratic edge, and OH(Fisher/Brunner vs Portman)- Democratic pick up.  Two Republican incumbents facing re-election in 2010 are vulnerable to defeat. Vitter(LA),and Burr(NC)- Democrats have a decent chance of unseating Burr(NC).
On the Democratic side. The vulnerable seats are in AR,CA,CO,CT,DE,IL,NV,NY,PA,WA,and WI.
Democrats will hold on to CA(Boxer),DE(Biden/if Castle does not run),IL(Giannoulias),NY(GIllibrand), PA(Specter/Sestak),WA(Murray),and WI(Feingold).

[Former Moderate]

my mistake

all rise

now hearing the case of neal patel v. neal patel

acting on behalf of the defendant, neal patel

prosecutor in this case will be neal patel

his honorable judge neal patel presiding

[nkpatel1279]

AR(Lincoln),CO(Bennett),and NV(Reid) are likely to remain Democratic due to lack of top tier Republican challengers.  and CT(Dodd) remains Democratic due to Dodd's Seniority.  Democrats are likely to gain 3 seats in the US Senate.
In the US House- Democrats will pick up LA-2,IL-10,DE(if Castle retires or runs for US Senate),NY-23(Depending on results of Special Election), PA-6, and MN-3(if Terri Bonnoff) runs.
Regarding what seat Democrats lose. I would say ruby Red Districts Democrats picked up in 2006/2008- AL-2,ID-1,MD-1, and LA-3 (OPEN seat). plus weak freshman Democrats who were narrowly elected in 2008. AL-5(Griffith),FL-8(Grayson),MI-7(Schauer),NJ-3(Adler),and VA-5(Perreillo).

[Former Moderate]

judge neal patel is ready to make his ruling

though neal patel makes some good points

the clear winner here is neal patel

whose flawless grasp of punctuation, spacing, and capitalization seals the deal

though honorable mention goes to neal patel for his rebuttal of neal patel

though this case has been settled we fully expect post judgement commentary from both neal patel and neal patel

[OC]

I would say the chances of a Democratic pickup are very good in the Senate.  Although, the chances of a net 3 senate seats are not all that good.

I say the Dems are probably going to add 2 seats and the chances of republicans gaining 1 seat are good as well.

As far as the governorship, they are going to follow the results in the House elections, the Dems are likely to lose House seats in CO, VA and NC, that means Burr being beaten in the senate is likely off the table.

As far as pickups in the rust belt, I see the Dems holding onto PA, and winning WI or MI.  As far as CO, that will simply follow the Senate election.

[nkpatel1279]

Governor
Democratic Takeover= CA,HI,MN,RI(DEM/Chaffee)and VT.
Republican Takeover= KS,OK,TN,and WY. (NJ and VA)
Races to Watch= AL(Dem Pickup if Moore is GOP Nominee),NV(Dem Pickup if Gibbons is GOP Nominee),NY(Republican Pickup if Paterson is DEM nominee.
Tossup= AZ,CO,FL,MA(Patrick-D/Cahill-I),MI,PA,and WI.
Democrats will hold on to AR,IL,IA,ME,MD,NH,NM,OH,and OR.
Republicans will hold on to AK,CT,GA,ID,NE,SC,SD,TX,and UT.

US Senator
Democratic Takeover= MO,NH,and OH.
Vulnerable Democratic Seats are AR,CO,CT,DE,IL,NV,and PA.
DE is only competitive if Castle(R) decides to run. otherwise it remains in DEM collumn(Beau Biden-D).
Despite the Blagojovich Scandal- and a strong GOP candidate- Democrats are favored to hold on to IL. Toomey is too conservative to win in PA.
Lincoln(AR) will get re-elected due to her GOP opponents being a bunch of extremists. Dodd(CT) and Reid(NV) vulnerability have to do with Congress's unpopularity with the electorate. If Health Care legislation passes or economy recovers Dodd(CT) and or Reid(NV) will survive. Bennet(CO) is the only Democratic US Senator that is likely to lose.
Tossup Races- KY and NC

[nkpatel1279]

Regarding the US House.
DEM Takeover is LA-2 which is going to be cancelled out with the loss in LA-3. IL-10,PA-6,and DE-AL if Castle retires or runs for US Senate.
Vulnerable Democratic US House Seats.
Alabama- AL-2(Bright) and AL-5(Griffith)- Democratic Incumbents are Conservative Freshman Democrats in Strong Republican Districts. If 2010 is a neutral year- Bright(AL-2) and Griffith(AL-5) will survive. If 2010 is a GOP year- Bright(AL-2) and Grifftih(AL-5) can lose.
Arizona- AZ-1,AZ-5,and AZ-8 are competitive but Democratic Incumbents will survive.
California- CA-11(McNerny)- Favored to win re-election in 2010.
Colorado- CO-4(Markey). Favored to win re-election in 2010.
Florida- FL-8(Grayson),FL-22(Klien),and FL-24(Kosmas). All three Democratic incumbents will face a close race but are favored to win re-election in 2010.
Idaho- ID-1(Minnick)- likely Democratic loss.
Illinios- IL-11(Halverson),IL-14(Foster)- Favored to win re-election.
Maryland- MD-1(Kravotil)- Lose in a Wave Year. Win in a Neutral Year.
Michigan- MI-7(Schauer),and MI-9(Peters)- Favored to win re-election.
Mississippi- MS-1(Childers)- Favored to win re-election in 2010.

[nkpatel1279]

New Hampshire- NH-1(Shea Porter) and NH-2(OPEN-Hodes)- Competive but Democratic Retention.
New Jersey- NJ-3 (Adler)- Competive but Democratic Retention.
New Mexico- NM-2 (Teague)- Competitive but Democratic Retention.
New York- NY-20(Murphy),NY-24(Arcuri),and NY-29(Massa)- Vulnerable if Paterson is on the ballot otherwise Democratic retention.
Ohio- OH-1(Driehaus),and OH-15(Kilroy). Both Democratic incumbents are facing rematches. Dreihaus(OH-1) will survive but Kilroy(OH-15) is more likely to lose.
Virginia- VA-5 (Perriello)- Competitive but Democratic Retention.