Two-round Canada or IRV Canada

[Hash]

An interesting question is to think about Canada's new Parliament if it was elected with a two-round system (that is, a runoff between the top 2 candidates given that no one breaks 50% in the first round) or, more fun, IRV.

For reference, if anybody ever gets to this, or if I get to this, I found a breakdown of party preferences here. And I think EKOS publishes them once in a blue moon.

I was making a nice list of all the ridings in which the winners didn't break 50% in 2008, but this fucking piece of sh**t ate it up. So, the map of results is here: http://www.cbc.ca/news/canadavotes/map/2008/ Use it. Or Pundits Guide (http://www.punditsguide.ca/parties_e.php)

I'm hopeless working with numbers (which is what a IRV simulation entails), so I'll rather simulate these with a runoff - which is quite different...

[Хahar 🤔]

I was thinking of doing it with the UK, but it took too long. Suffice it to say that the LibDems would do much better. I think the same happens with the Liberals. Bloc definitely gets badly hurt.

Errors are to be expected.

Bloc: 13

Bas-Richelieu—Nicolet—Bécancour
Beauharnois—Salaberry
Chambly—Borduas
Joliette
La Pointe-de-l'Île
Laurier—Sainte-Marie
Longueuil—Pierre-Boucher
Montcalm
Repentigny
Rivière-du-Nord
Rosemont—La Petite-Patrie
Terrebonne—Blainville
Verchères—Les Patriotes

Conservative: 79

Abbotsford
Barrie
Battlefords—Lloydminster
Beauce
Blackstrap
Brandon—Souris
Calgary Centre
Calgary Centre—North
Calgary East
Calgary Northeast
Calgary—Nose Hill
Calgary Southeast
Calgary Southwest
Calgary West
Cariboo—Prince George
Carleton—Mississippi Mills
Charleswood—St. James—Assiniboia
Chilliwack—Fraser Canyon
Crowfoot
Cypress Hills—Grasslands
Dauphin—Swan River—Marquette
Dufferin—Caledon
Durham
Edmonton East
Edmonton—Leduc
Edmonton—Mill Woods—Beaumont
Edmonton—Spruce Grove
Edmonton—St. Albert
Fort McMurray—Athabasca
Fundy Royal
Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock
Jonquière—Alma
Kelowna—Lake Country
Kildonan—St. Paul
Kootenay—Columbia
Lanark—Frontenac—Lennox and Addington
Lambdon—Kent—Middlesex
Langley
Leeds—Grenviille
Lethbridge
Macleod
Medicine Hat
Nepean—Carleton
New Brunswick Southwest
Niagara West—Glanbrook
Okanagan—Coquihalla
Okanagan—Shuswap
Oxford
Parry Sound—Muskoka
Peace River
Pitt Meadows—Maple Ridge—Mission
Port Moody—Westwood—Port Coquitlam
Portage—Lisgar
Prince Albert
Prince Edward—Hastings
Prince George—Peace River
Provencher
Red Deer
Regina—Lumsden—Lake Centre
Regina—Qu'Appelle
Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke
Saskatoon—Humboldt
Saskatoon—Wanuskewin
Selkirk—Interlake
Simcoe—Grey
Souris—Moose Mountain
South Surrey—White Rock—Cloverdale
Stormont—Dundas—South Glengarry
Tobique—Mactaquac
Vegreville—Wainright
Wellington—Halton Hills
Westlock—St. Paul
Wetaskiwin
Whitby—Oshawa
Wild Rose
Yellowhead
York—Simcoe
Yorkton—Melville

Independent: 1

Cumberland—Colchester—Musquodoboit Valley

Liberal: 16

Bonavista—Gander—Grand Falls—Windsor
Cardigan
Charlottetown
Humber—St. Barbe—Baie Verte
Labrador
Markham—Unionville
Mississauga East—Cooksville
Mount Royal
Saint-Laurent—Cartierville
Saint-Léonard—Saint-Michel
Scarborough—Agincourt
Scarborough—Guildwood
Scarborough—Rouge River
Random—Burin—St. George's
St. Paul's
York West

NDP: 6

Acadie—Bathurst
Timmins—James Bay
Sackville—Eastern Shore
St. John's East
Vancouver East
Winnipeg North

Bloc v. Conservative

Abitibi—Baie-James—Nunavik—Eeyou
Berthier—Maskinongé
Chicoutimi—Le Fjord
Drummond
Louis-Hébert
Manicouagan
Montmagny—L'Islet—Kamouraska—Rivière-du-Loup
Montmorency—Charlevoix—Haute-Côte-Nord
Québec
Richmond—Arthabaska
Rivière-des-Mille-Îles
Saint-Hyacinthe—Bagot
Saint-Maurice—Champlain
Trois-Rivières

Bloc v. Liberal

Abitibi—Témiscamingue
Ahuntsic
Alfred-Pellan
Argenteuil—Papineau—Mirabel
Brome—Missisquoi
Châteauguay—Saint-Constant
Compton—Stanstead
Haute-Gaspésie—La Mitis—Matane—Matapédia
Hochelaga
Gaspésie—Îles-de-la-Madeleine
Jeanne-Le Ber
Laurentides—Labelle
Laval
Marc-Aurèle-Fortin
Rimouski-Neigette—Témiscouata—Les Basques
Saint-Bruno—Saint-Hubert
Saint-Jean
Saint-Lambert
Shefford
Sherbrooke
Vaudreuil-Soulanges

Bloc v. NDP

Gatineau

Conservative v. Bloc

Beauport—Limoilou
Charlesbourg—Haute-Saint-Charles
Mégantic—L'Érable
Lévis—Bellechasse
Lotbinière—Chutes-de-la-Chaudière
Louis-Saint-Laurent
Roberval—Lac-Saint-Jean

Conservative v. Green

Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound
Central Nova

Conservative v. Independent

Edmonton—Sherwood Park

Conservative v. Liberal

Ancaster—Dundas—Flamborough—Westdale
Brant
Burlington
Cambridge
Chatham—Kent—Essex
Delta—Richmond East
Desnethé—Missinippi—Churchill River
Edmonton Centre
Egmont
Elgin—Middlesex—London
Essex
Fleetwood—Port Kells
Fredericton
Glengarry—Prescott—Russell
Haldimand—Norfolk
Halton
Huron—Bruce
Kenora
Kitchener Centre
Kitchener—Conestoga
Kitchener—Waterloo
London West
Miramichi
Mississauga—Erindale
Newmarket—Aurora
Niagara Falls
North Vancouver
Northumberland—Quinte West
Nunavut
Oak Ridges—Markham
Oakville
Ottawa—Orléans
Ottawa—West Nepean
Perth—Wellington
Peterborough
Pontiac
Richmond
Saint Boniface
Saint John
Simcoe North
St. Catharines
Thornhill
West Nova
West Vancouver—Sunshine Coast—Sea to Sky Country
Winnipeg South

Conservative v. NDP

Kamloops—Thompson—Cariboo
Nanaimo—Alberni
Oshawa
Palliser
Sarnia—Lambton
Saskatoon—Rosetown—Biggar
South Shore—St. Margaret's
Surrey North
Vancouver Island North

Independent v. Bloc

Portneuf—Jacques-Cartier

Liberal v. Bloc

Bourassa
Brossard—La Prairie
Honoré-Mercier
Hull—Aylmer
LaSalle—Émard
Laval—Les Îles
Papineau

Liberal v. Conservative

Ajax—Pickering
Avalon
Beauséjour
Bramalea—Gore—Malton
Brampton—Springdale
Brampton West
Cape Breton—Canso
Don Valley East
Don Valley West
Eglinton—Lawrence
Esquimault—Juan de Fuca
Etobicoke Centre
Etobicoke—Lakeshore
Etobicoke North
Guelph
Kings—Hants
Kingston and the Islands
Lac-Saint-Louis
London North Centre
Madawaska—Restigouche
Malpeque
Mississauga—Brampton South
Mississauga—Streetsville
Mississauga South
Moncton—Riverview—Dieppe
Newton—North Delta
Nipissing—Timiskaming
Notre-Dame-de-Grâce—Lachine
Pickering—Scarborough East
Pierrefonds—Dollard
Ottawa South
Ottawa—Vanier
Richmond Hill
Scarborough Centre
Scarborough Southwest
Toronto Centre
Vancouver Centre
Vancouver Quadra
Vancouver South
Vaughan
Wascana
Willowdale
Winnipeg South Centre
York Centre
Yukon

Liberal v. NDP

Beaches—East York
Dartmouth—Cole Harbour
Davenport
Halifax West
Parkdale—High Park
St. John's South—Mount Pearl
Sydney—Victoria
Westmount—Ville-Marie
York South—Weston

NDP v. Conservative

British Columbia Southern Interior
Burnaby—Douglas
Burnaby—New Westminster
Edmonton—Strathcona
Elmwood—Transcona
Hamilton Centre
Hamilton Mountain
London—Fanshawe
Nanaimo—Cowichan
New Westminster—Coquitlam
Sault Ste. Marie
Skeena—Bulkley Valley
Welland
Western Arctic
Windsor—Tecumseh
Windsor West
Winnipeg Centre

NDP v. Liberal

Algoma—Manitoulin—Kapuskasing
Churchill
Halifax
Hamilton East—Stoney Creek
Nickel Belt
Ottawa Centre
Outremont
Sudbury
Thunder Bay—Rainy River
Thunder Bay—Superior North
Vancouver Kingsway

[Smid]

I'm doing some spreadsheet work with Canadian ridings at the moment, but with those preference flows figures, I'll take a bit of a look at allocating preferences... I'm pretty sure that once I've finished doing what I'm doing, it won't take much longer to then set up a preferences worksheet that can calculate a 2PP for the different ridings... Very interested in pursuing this, but it's going to take me a week or so to get involved.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Really interessant.

[Hash]

Bloc: 13 11

Bas-Richelieu—Nicolet—Bécancour
Beauharnois—Salaberry
Chambly—Borduas (BQ-Liberal)
Joliette
La Pointe-de-l'Île
Laurier—Sainte-Marie
Longueuil—Pierre-Boucher (BQ-Liberal)
Montcalm
Repentigny
Rivière-du-Nord
Rosemont—La Petite-Patrie
Terrebonne—Blainville
Verchères—Les Patriotes

Conservative: 79 80

Abbotsford
Barrie
Battlefords—Lloydminster
Beauce
Blackstrap
Brandon—Souris
Calgary Centre
Calgary Centre—North
Calgary East
Calgary Northeast
Calgary—Nose Hill
Calgary Southeast
Calgary Southwest
Calgary West
Cariboo—Prince George
Carleton—Mississippi Mills
Charleswood—St. James—Assiniboia
Chilliwack—Fraser Canyon
Crowfoot
Cypress Hills—Grasslands
Dauphin—Swan River—Marquette
Dufferin—Caledon
Durham
Edmonton East
Edmonton—Leduc
Edmonton—Mill Woods—Beaumont
Edmonton—Spruce Grove
Edmonton—St. Albert
Fort McMurray—Athabasca
Fundy Royal
Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock
Jonquière—Alma
Kelowna—Lake Country
Kildonan—St. Paul
Kootenay—Columbia
Lanark—Frontenac—Lennox and Addington
Lambdon—Kent—Middlesex
Langley
Leeds—Grenviille
Lethbridge
Macleod
Medicine Hat
Nepean—Carleton
New Brunswick Southwest
Niagara West—Glanbrook
Okanagan—Coquihalla
Okanagan—Shuswap
Oxford
Parry Sound—Muskoka
Peace River
Pitt Meadows—Maple Ridge—Mission
Port Moody—Westwood—Port Coquitlam
Portage—Lisgar
Prince Albert
Prince Edward—Hastings
Prince George—Peace River
Provencher
Red Deer
Regina—Lumsden—Lake Centre
Regina—Qu'Appelle
Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke
Saskatoon—Humboldt
Saskatoon—Wanuskewin
Selkirk—Interlake
Simcoe—Grey
Souris—Moose Mountain
South Surrey—White Rock—Cloverdale
Stormont—Dundas—South Glengarry
Tobique—Mactaquac
Vegreville—Wainright
Wellington—Halton Hills
Westlock—St. Paul
Wetaskiwin
Whitby—Oshawa
Wild Rose
Yellowhead
York—Simcoe
Yorkton—Melville

(+ Delta—Richmond East)

Bloc v. Liberal

Abitibi—Témiscamingue
Ahuntsic
Alfred-Pellan
Argenteuil—Papineau—Mirabel
Brome—Missisquoi
Châteauguay—Saint-Constant
Compton—Stanstead
Haute-Gaspésie—La Mitis—Matane—Matapédia
Hochelaga
Gaspésie—Îles-de-la-Madeleine
Jeanne-Le Ber
Laurentides—Labelle
Laval
Marc-Aurèle-Fortin
Rimouski-Neigette—Témiscouata—Les Basques
Saint-Bruno—Saint-Hubert
Saint-Jean
Saint-Lambert
Shefford
Sherbrooke
Vaudreuil-Soulanges (BQ-Conservative)

(+ Longueuil-Pierre Boucher and Chambly-Borduas

Conservative v. Liberal

Ancaster—Dundas—Flamborough—Westdale
Brant
Burlington
Cambridge
Chatham—Kent—Essex
Delta—Richmond East First round Tory victory
Desnethé—Missinippi—Churchill River
Edmonton Centre
Egmont
Elgin—Middlesex—London
Essex
Fleetwood—Port Kells
Fredericton
Glengarry—Prescott—Russell
Haldimand—Norfolk
Halton
Huron—Bruce
Kenora
Kitchener Centre
Kitchener—Conestoga
Kitchener—Waterloo
London West
Miramichi
Mississauga—Erindale
Newmarket—Aurora
Niagara Falls
North Vancouver
Northumberland—Quinte West
Nunavut
Oak Ridges—Markham
Oakville
Ottawa—Orléans
Ottawa—West Nepean
Perth—Wellington
Peterborough
Pontiac
Richmond
Saint Boniface
Saint John
Simcoe North
St. Catharines
Thornhill
West Nova
West Vancouver—Sunshine Coast—Sea to Sky Country
Winnipeg South

F'xed

[Hatman 🍁]

I did this a while ago, maybe I'll take a stab at it.

I'll list the ridings I think would change hands.

Here's Atlantic Canada...

Egmont: Conservative to Liberal
South Shore-St. Margaret's: Conservative to NDP
West Nova: Conservative to Liberal
Miramichi: Conservative to Liberal
Saint John: Conservative to Liberal

[Hatman 🍁]

Quebec

Abitibi-James-Baie-Nunavik: BQ to Conservative
Ahuntsic: BQ to Liberal
Brome-Mississquoi: BQ to Liberal
Chicoutimi-Le Fjord: BQ to Conservative
Compton-Stanstead: BQ to Liberal
Drummond: BQ to Conservative
Gaspesie-Iles-de-la-Madeleine: BQ to Liberal
Gatineau: IRV: Liberal; Run off: NDP (both from BQ)
Haute-Gaspesie-La Mitis-Matane-Matapedia: BQ to Liberal
Jeanne-Le Ber: BQ to Liberal
Alfred-Pellan: BQ to Liberal
Laval: BQ to Liberal
Louis-Hebert: BQ to Conservative
Pontiac: Conservative to Liberal
Saint-Lambert: BQ to Liberal

Ontario
Kenora: Conservative to Liberal
Kitchener Centre: Conservative to Liberal
Kitchener-Waterloo: Conservative to Liberal
London West: Conservative to Liberal
Mississauga-Erindale: Conservative to Liberal
Oak Ridges-Markham: Conservative to Liberal
Sudbury: NDP to Liberal

The West
Saskatoon-Rosetown-Biggar: Conservative to NDP
Edmonton-Sherwood Park: Conservative to Independent
Surrey North: Conservative to NDP
Vancouver Kingsway: NDP to Liberal
Nunavut: Conservative to Liberal