Stephen Harper as Alliance leader, 2000
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  Stephen Harper as Alliance leader, 2000
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Author Topic: Stephen Harper as Alliance leader, 2000  (Read 1619 times)
Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 8,200
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -1.91

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« on: September 20, 2009, 11:53:00 PM »

I know its a bit unorthodox to have three timelines going at once, but I have all elections for my first timeline worked out to 2009, and my second one is coming along at a good clip. Anyways, this one explores what would have happened had Stephen Harper run for Alliance leader in 2000.
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Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,200
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -1.91

WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: September 21, 2009, 12:06:22 AM »

After the merger of the Reform Party, a leadership election was called. While most expected Preston Manning to win, many strong candidates entered the race. Stockwell Day, and Alberta Cabinet Minister, and Tom Long, a powerful Ontario strategist both entered the Alliance leadership race.

At the last minute, Stephen Harper also threw in his hat. Harper had been pressured by many on the right to run. Tom Long quickly found much common ground with Harper, and withdrew his campaign to support him. The race then became a three way affair between Day, Manning and Harper, with Keith Martin, a moderate, and John Stachow, a fringe candidate, rounding out the field.

First Ballot
Preston Manning   -   42,427
Stephen Harper   -   38,394
Stockwell Day   -   37,849
Keith Martin   -   1,676
John Stachow   -   211

Stockwell Day withdrew. While not supporting anyone, there became a clear groundswell of support for Harper, on the grounds that a new party needs a new leader.

Second ballot
Stephen Harper   -   72,349
Preston Manning   -   41,869



The creation of the Allliance would allow the new party to jump to 30% in the polls. An election was called, and the results are shown below...

In hindsight we learn that Stockwell Day was an awful leader and ran an awful campaign. We also learn that Harper is a damn good campaigner, and although perhaps as iron-fisted as Day, he has the power to back it up. How would a good campaigner do, VS Day. The Alliance started at 30% in the polls and ended at 25%. Harper, would not have seen such a drop. Hence, our timeline... (results below. Let me map them)
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Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,200
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -1.91

WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: September 21, 2009, 12:42:20 AM »

(a disclaimer. This is based on real polling numbers, transverted onto real result numbers. Therefore any claiming that such a result in such a riding is "unrealistic" only need to check the numbers. 25% being the real result, and 30% being the result in this timeline. That's a gain of 120%. Add 120% to the Alliance number in any riding to see the results in this timeline.

Note, that I did boost the Alliance slightly beyond this in Ontario.)








Lib - 154
CA - 88
BQ - 38
PC - 11
NDP - 10

The Alliance is able to win 14 seats in Ontario and 1 in the Atlantic. The Liberals win a thin, but working Majority. Both the PC Party and the NDP are again robbed of party status.
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Хahar 🤔
Xahar
Atlas Legend
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Posts: 41,731
Bangladesh


Political Matrix
E: -6.77, S: 0.61

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« Reply #3 on: September 21, 2009, 06:47:04 PM »

Yay, another Canada TL. Smiley
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Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,200
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -1.91

WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: September 29, 2009, 12:40:39 AM »

On hold for the time being. And no, I have not forgotten about this. I have election maps ready to go on my computer, and I just need to write the story to connect it all, which I will be doing in a bit. I have a few games on the go ATM and we are possibly heading into a federal election (I maintain a top notch Canadian Election Projection blog, see the link in my other post) that will consume my time.
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Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,200
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -1.91

WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: September 30, 2009, 02:29:43 AM »

Actually I'm just going to end this.

Long story short, Harper wins as many seats as he does in real life due to the Alliance becoming more palatable (since the PC's cannot rebound after a defeat like 2000)
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