Card Defaults Surge to Record 11.49% in August, Moody’s Says

[Beet]

And the consumer continues to craptacular...

By Peter Eichenbaum

Sept. 23 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. credit-card defaults rose to a record in August and more losses may lie ahead as delinquencies climbed for the first time since March, according to Moody’s Investors Service.

Write-offs rose to 11.49 percent from 10.52 percent in July, Moody’s said today in a report. Loans at least 30 days delinquent rose to 5.8 percent from 5.73 percent. “Early- stage” delinquencies, or loans overdue 30 to 59 days, surged to 1.65 percent, from 1.41 percent, signaling higher losses in coming months. Banks typically write off loans after 180 days.

JPMorgan Chase & Co.,Bank of America Corp. and Citigroup Inc., the biggest U.S. credit-card lenders, said in federal filings on Sept. 15 that defaults climbed in August as the unemployment rate jumped to 9.7 percent and the impact of income tax refunds waned. Credit-card defaults typically track the U.S. jobless rate.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aOUFvgV93LaI

This is-- and mortgage delinquencies-- are the problem. Yes, the industrial and corporate sector is going through a technical recovery, and this is good for stocks... but the consumer is not done crapping out, and it shows no sign of stopping. This is all going to be a huge mess and I don't see why financial stocks can recover with continually deteriorating credit conditions on the consumer and mortage side with no end in sight.

[Sam Spade]

Credit-card writeoffs are one of the best correlations we have to unemployment rates.  That, alone, is a great reason to watch this number closely.

[opebo]

Credit-card writeoffs are one of the best correlations we have to unemployment rates.  That, alone, is a great reason to watch this number closely.

You mean to find out what is the unemployment rate?  I know the 'official figure' is rather off, but surely its more directly connected to employment than credit cards.  (after all it is quite common to be unable to pay credit card debt even with a job).

[Sam Spade]

Credit-card writeoffs are one of the best correlations we have to unemployment rates.  That, alone, is a great reason to watch this number closely.

You mean to find out what is the unemployment rate?

Typically, it's highly correlated with the U-3 number (the headline employment rate) and moves along with it.

[opebo]

Well, great.  So we can just look at the unempoyment rate, then, if we want to know about unemployment.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

This is-- and mortgage delinquencies-- are the problem. Yes, the industrial and corporate sector is going through a technical recovery, and this is good for stocks... but the consumer is not done crapping out, and it shows no sign of stopping. This is all going to be a huge mess and I don't see why financial stocks can recover with continually deteriorating credit conditions on the consumer and mortage side with no end in sight.

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