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| | | |-+  "Strategic Vision Polls Exhibit Unusual Patterns, Possibly Indicating Fraud"
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Author Topic: "Strategic Vision Polls Exhibit Unusual Patterns, Possibly Indicating Fraud"  (Read 4735 times)
Sibboleth
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« on: September 25, 2009, 12:41:02 pm »
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http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2009/09/strategic-vision-polls-exhibit-unusual.html
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"I have become entangled in my own data, and my conclusion stands in direct contradiction to the initial idea from which I started. Proceeding from unlimited freedom, I end with unlimited despotism. I will add, however, that there can be no solution of the social formula except mine."
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Cuivienen
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« Reply #1 on: September 25, 2009, 01:18:49 pm »
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Combined with the polling institute hammering them for not providing any details at all, they seem to be about to be in a lot of trouble. Too bad it isn't ARG.

Btw, it's really easy to forge good internals and methodology, too, guys. Why be half-assed about it and risk getting caught?
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Rowan
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« Reply #2 on: September 25, 2009, 01:28:32 pm »
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They have responded:

“First in regards to the AAPOR charges that started this blog thread. Strategic Vision did comply and provide the information to AAPOR and has electronic proof that this was done on June 19th. We did this because they claimed a complaint has been filed against us and they were investigating us, even though we have never been a member of their organization. We were then contacted by AAPOR and told that while they had requested this it was not done in a timely enough fashion so they were going to issue a press release reprimanding us. Please remember again we are not members of their association. At no time did they request additional information as they now allege they had. Had they done so we would have provided them the information. Rather as I stated we were told we were going to be reprimanded by AAPOR despite responding to them. We have requested from them repeatedly since this investigation is all about transparency according to them, a copy of the complaint. They have refused and stated their bylaws donot require them to show us the complaint but we must respond to them or be rep rimanded. Further several members of this panel that voted to investigate us serve as consultants for one of our competitors and indeed contacted a client several days prior to this being released telling our client that they should switch to the company they consult for.

Secondly in regards to Nate Silver’s statements, we categorically deny them and will refute them. We have a call into our attorney on this and fully intend to take action that will vindicate us. I wish Nate had contacted me directly yesterday when he began this tirade, I could have answered his questions fully to his satisfaction prior to damage being done to our reputation. Now that he has made these accusations and posted them online, I must and will defend our company’s reputation through all legal avenues available. The reason that we are going the legal route is he has attempted to do severe damage to our reputation and what is he going to do when we disprove him just say I am sorry. That isn’t enough at this point.”

http://blogs.tampabay.com/buzz/2009/09/nate-silver-pollster-may-be-fraud.html

Silver could possibly be sued for libel, because there's no doubt this would affect their reputation.
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Former Moderate
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« Reply #3 on: September 25, 2009, 02:48:50 pm »
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Frankly, if Silver didn't even bother checking in with Strategic Vision, that's some real sloppy journalism work, even if it's amateur blogger-style journalism work.
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« Reply #4 on: September 25, 2009, 07:26:20 pm »
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Sorry, SV, don't believe it. The evidence is pretty damning (and additional things that Silver didn't investigate, like all sample sizes ending in even numbers, make it worse). This is just bluster.
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Rowan
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« Reply #5 on: September 25, 2009, 08:07:16 pm »
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Sorry, SV, don't believe it. The evidence is pretty damning (and additional things that Silver didn't investigate, like all sample sizes ending in even numbers, make it worse). This is just bluster.

Um, Rasmussen uses all even sample sizes(500,1000, etc.). That doesn't mean anything.
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The Mikado
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« Reply #6 on: September 28, 2009, 03:29:03 pm »
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Silver is really firing all he has at SV, and frankly, I'm inclined to side with him until evidence of SV's innocence emerges.  Their behavior has been suspicious and unprofessional.
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IDS Judicial Overlord PiT
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« Reply #7 on: September 28, 2009, 06:51:34 pm »
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     Interesting article. I wonder what the spread would look like done for another polling firm, like Survey USA. If the ending digits spread there is in fact pretty even, that would be doubly damning.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #8 on: October 20, 2009, 08:18:25 am »
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They have not polled a race for 1 month now ...

(Well, happened before too, but nonetheless strange. Let`s see if they poll NJ again before the election.)
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« Reply #9 on: October 20, 2009, 12:24:32 pm »
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What's so strange about that? Who would hire them right now?
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« Reply #10 on: October 21, 2009, 01:47:33 am »
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What's so strange about that? Who would hire them right now?

     Some random TV station that wants some random poll to break.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #11 on: December 03, 2009, 06:34:06 pm »
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Looks like they almost certainly made up the results of a survey of Oklahoma high school students:

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2009/11/real-oklahoma-students-ace-citizenship.html
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #12 on: December 15, 2009, 03:37:11 pm »
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They have not polled any race since September and didn´t release a final NJ poll, which is strange.

Seems like ARG has also vanished, their site is broken since at least 1 week now:

http://americanresearchgroup.com
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