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Author Topic: German Election Prediction Contest  (Read 2899 times)
Sibboleth
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« on: September 25, 2009, 07:17:53 pm »
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I remember that we did one of these last time. Anyway.

1. Predict the %'s for Right (CDU, FDP) and Left (SPD, G, DL).

2. Predict the order of the five main parties (list vote).

3. Predict the leading party in each state.

4. Predict the best and worst states for each of the five main parties (list vote).

5. Predict the best and worst constituencies for each of the five main parties (list vote).

6. Predict the biggest direct-vote majority for each party (pretty meaningless, but whatever).

---

And an additional contest for the insane only - predict each constituency result (direct vote). Coloured maps acceptable. This would be (if anyone does it) seperate from the other contest.
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« Reply #1 on: September 25, 2009, 07:44:45 pm »

I tried this for Hesse earlier this year (wow, that seems like a long time ago that election)...

Quote
Predicted vs. Actual
CDU 40% vs. 37%
SPD 25% vs. 24%
FDP 14% vs. 16%
Greens 13% vs. 14%
Left 4% vs. 5%
Others 4% vs. 4%

I might give this a try.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #2 on: September 26, 2009, 12:19:44 am »
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Might refine this stuff in the evening, if additional polls come out:

I remember that we did one of these last time. Anyway.

1. Predict the %'s for Right (CDU, FDP) and Left (SPD, G, DL).

CDU/CSU: 32.5%
SPD: 26.1%
FDP: 14.4%
Left: 11.1%
Greens: 10.5%
Others: 5.4%

Turnout: 74.7%

Red-Red-Green: 47.7%
Black-Yellow: 46.9%

Quote from: This is the North - where we do what we want!
2. Predict the order of the five main parties (list vote).

1 - CDU/CSU
2 - SPD
3 - FDP
4 - Left
5 - Greens

Quote from: This is the North - where we do what we want!
3. Predict the leading party in each state.

SPD wins Hamburg, Bremen, Berlin and Brandenburg (allthough the Left will be within 1 point).

The Left wins Sachsen-Anhalt and Thüringen.

CSU wins in Bavaria.

CDU wins everywhere else.

Quote from: This is the North - where we do what we want!
4. Predict the best and worst states for each of the five main parties (list vote).

CDU/CSU: Best = Bavaria, Worst = Berlin
SPD: Best = Bremen, Worst = Bavaria or Saxony (lean Saxony)
FDP: Best = BW or Hesse (lean BW), Worst = Mecklenburg-Vorpommern
Left: Best = Sachsen-Anhalt, Worst = Bavaria
Greens: Best = Berlin, Worst = Mecklenburg-Vorpommern or or Sachsen-Anhalt (lean MV)

Quote from: This is the North - where we do what we want!
5. Predict the best and worst constituencies for each of the five main parties (list vote).

No clue.

Quote from: This is the North - where we do what we want!
6. Predict the biggest direct-vote majority for each party (pretty meaningless, but whatever).

No clue.

---

Quote from: This is the North - where we do what we want!
And an additional contest for the insane only - predict each constituency result (direct vote). Coloured maps acceptable. This would be (if anyone does it) seperate from the other contest.

I´m not that insane ... 300 constituencies with no polls. It would just be too embarrassing.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #3 on: September 26, 2009, 12:37:57 am »
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We could include predictions for the 2 state elections though which are also held tomorrow:

Schleswig-Holstein

CDU: 31% (-9)
SPD: 26% (-13)
FDP: 15% (+8 )
Greens: 13% (+7)
Left: 7% (+6)
SSW: 4% (nc)
Others: 4% (nc)

Brandenburg

SPD: 32% (nc)
Left: 27% (-1)
CDU: 21% (+2)
FDP: 7% (+4)
Greens: 5% (+1)
Nazis: 4% (-2)
Others: 4% (-4)
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« Reply #4 on: September 26, 2009, 03:59:35 am »
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I predict 46% for CDU-CSU-FDP. And the same order as Tender. I won't do the other stuff. I prefer to sit and watch.
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« Reply #5 on: September 26, 2009, 05:08:40 am »
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I remember that we did one of these last time. Anyway.

1. Predict the %'s for Right (CDU, FDP) and Left (SPD, G, DL).

CDU/CSU: 33.5%
SPD: 26.0%
FDP: 13.8%
Left: 10.9%
Greens: 10.8%
Others: 5.0%

Turnout: 74.7%

Red-Red-Green: 47.7%
Black-Yellow: 47.3%

Quote from: This is the North - where we do what we want!
2. Predict the order of the five main parties (list vote).

1 - CDU/CSU
2 - SPD
3 - FDP
4 - Left
5 - Greens

Quote from: This is the North - where we do what we want!
3. Predict the leading party in each state.

SPD wins Hamburg, Bremen, Berlin and Brandenburg (close to the left)

The Left wins Sachsen-Anhalt and Thüringen. (in both states close between the Left and the CDU, in S.-A. maybe nearly a 3 way-tie)

CSU wins in Bavaria.

CDU wins everywhere else.

Quote from: This is the North - where we do what we want!
4. Predict the best and worst states for each of the five main parties (list vote).

CDU/CSU: Best = Bavaria, Worst = Berlin
SPD: Best = Bremen, Worst = Saxony
FDP: Best = Banden-Württemberg, Worst = Mecklenburg-Vorpommern
Left: Best = Brandenburg, Worst = Bavaria
Greens: Best = Berlin, Worst = Sachsen-Anhalt

To predict the constituencies is only speculation, but there will be no big difference to 2005
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Sibboleth
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« Reply #6 on: September 26, 2009, 05:51:40 am »
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I´m not that insane ... 300 constituencies with no polls. It would just be too embarrassing.

Go on - be crazy Grin

(yeah, I wasn't expecting anyone to take that up)
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« Reply #7 on: September 26, 2009, 06:23:07 pm »

I'll probably fail again, but not as badly as my prediction of a UMP win in Gironde-11.

1. Predict the %'s for Right (CDU, FDP) and Left (SPD, G, DL).

CDU/CSU: 31%
SPD: 26%
FDP: 15%
Left: 12%
Greens: 10%
Others: 6%

Right 46% vs Left 48%

2. Predict the order of the five main parties (list vote).

CDU
SPD
FDP
Left
Greens
CSU
Pirates
NPD

3. Predict the leading party in each state.

SPD: Hamburg, Berlin, Bremen, Brandenburg
Left: Saxony-Anhalt and Thuringia
CSU: Bayern!
CDU: The rest

4. Predict the best and worst states for each of the five main parties (list vote).

SPD, best: Bremen worst: Saxony
CDU/CSU, best: Bayern! worst: Berlin
FDP best: Baden-Württemberg worst: Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania
Greens best: Berlin, worst: Saxony-Anhalt
Left best: Brandenburg worst: Bayern!

« Last Edit: September 27, 2009, 07:58:44 am by Minister of Free Time Hashemite »Logged

Tender Branson
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« Reply #8 on: September 27, 2009, 12:13:10 am »
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Don't know if I should make a last-minute change in my prediction after I saw Stefan Raab's "TV Total" result yesterday, which indicated a strong surge for the Left at the expense of the SPD.

But it could only mean that the Leftists were more likely to watch "TV Total", pick up their phone and make a call or send an SMS to vote ...

We'll see. I think I let my prediction as it is.
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Franzl
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« Reply #9 on: September 27, 2009, 02:22:03 am »
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Let's just say I have lots of alcohol ready for tonight.
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Franzl
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« Reply #10 on: September 27, 2009, 02:22:49 am »
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But it could only mean that the Leftists were more likely to watch "TV Total", pick up their phone and make a call or send an SMS to vote ...

Makes sense, people on welfare do tend to have the most time.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #11 on: September 27, 2009, 02:26:49 am »
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But it could only mean that the Leftists were more likely to watch "TV Total", pick up their phone and make a call or send an SMS to vote ...

Makes sense, people on welfare do tend to have the most time.

As if all the CDU/CSU/FDP-people are working on a Saturday evening ...

Or I can also state that they are just too dumb to use a phone.
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Franzl
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« Reply #12 on: September 27, 2009, 02:28:58 am »
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But it could only mean that the Leftists were more likely to watch "TV Total", pick up their phone and make a call or send an SMS to vote ...

Makes sense, people on welfare do tend to have the most time.

As if all the CDU/CSU/FDP-people are working on a Saturday evening ...

Or I can also state that they are just too dumb to use a phone.

Left always seems to massively overperform in these TV polls. There have been lots of Kabel 1 (or whatever) video text polls that have the Left in 1st place.

Probably has more to do with how they choose to spend their time.

I'm pretty sure that voters of the Left spend significantly more time watching TV, statistically, don't you think? Smiley
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #13 on: September 27, 2009, 02:34:28 am »
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But it could only mean that the Leftists were more likely to watch "TV Total", pick up their phone and make a call or send an SMS to vote ...

Makes sense, people on welfare do tend to have the most time.

As if all the CDU/CSU/FDP-people are working on a Saturday evening ...

Or I can also state that they are just too dumb to use a phone.

Left always seems to massively overperform in these TV polls. There have been lots of Kabel 1 (or whatever) video text polls that have the Left in 1st place.

Probably has more to do with how they choose to spend their time.

I'm pretty sure that voters of the Left spend significantly more time watching TV, statistically, don't you think? Smiley

Over the day for sure, because many of them are unemployed. But not in the night, where it should be more mainstream. Because what else do the CDU/CSU/FDP voters do in the evening ?

And what also contradicts it is the fact that in the 2005 TV Total poll the Left got only 10% or so, yet unemployment was at 5 Mio ...

Another important factor is that CDU/CSU and SPD voters are very old and go to sleep at 7pm.

Or I state that CDU/CSU/FDP voters are just too geizig to spend 50 Cents on a call or SMS ... Wink
« Last Edit: September 27, 2009, 02:38:02 am by Tender Branson »Logged
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« Reply #14 on: September 27, 2009, 02:37:08 am »
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Callin polls are the most easily manipulated things on the planet. Hence their popularity with tv channels. It used to be the FDP that overperformed hilariously in them, earlier this millennium.
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« Reply #15 on: September 27, 2009, 02:40:53 am »
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Or I state that CDU/CSU/FDP voters are just too geizig to spend 50 Cents on a call or SMS ... Wink

You can see what unemployed people spend money on Wink
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« Reply #16 on: September 27, 2009, 02:43:52 am »
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Odd fact: Unless the subject (or channel of distribution) is really really male specific, two thirds and upwards of participants in these thingees are women.
It explains why women's football goals, when nominated, tend to win on Tor der Woche. Smiley
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"Our party do not have any ideology... Our main aim is to grab power ... Every one is doing so but I say it openly." Keshav Dev Maurya
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« Reply #17 on: September 27, 2009, 02:45:25 am »
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Odd fact: Unless the subject (or channel of distribution) is really really male specific, two thirds and upwards of participants in these thingees are women.
It explains why women's football goals, when nominated, tend to win on Tor der Woche. Smiley

ah die Klatschtanten!
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #18 on: September 27, 2009, 02:46:12 am »
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Or I state that CDU/CSU/FDP voters are just too geizig to spend 50 Cents on a call or SMS ... Wink

You can see what unemployed people spend money on Wink

What should they do instead ? Drop dead in front of the TV ? Tongue
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #19 on: September 27, 2009, 03:03:28 am »
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Let's just say I have lots of alcohol ready for tonight.

Cool. What kind ? Hard one or Champagne ?

I think I´m also zwitschering a beer or two when the returns come in.
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Franzl
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« Reply #20 on: September 27, 2009, 03:04:50 am »
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Let's just say I have lots of alcohol ready for tonight.

Cool. What kind ? Hard one or Champagne ?

I have various types of alcohol. The bottle we open will depend on the results Smiley
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« Reply #21 on: September 27, 2009, 03:11:41 am »
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Let's just say I have lots of alcohol ready for tonight.

Cool. What kind ? Hard one or Champagne ?

I got the perfect combinayshe kicking around the house (probably won't open it tonite though, gotta work tomorrow)

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« Reply #22 on: September 27, 2009, 04:43:51 am »
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6. Predict the biggest direct-vote majority for each party (pretty meaningless, but whatever).

---

And an additional contest for the insane only - predict each constituency result (direct vote). Coloured maps acceptable. This would be (if anyone does it) seperate from the other contest.

I guess this is only relatively easy in the Greens' case.

Best direct-vote constituency: Friedrichshain-Kreuzberg-Prenzlauer Berg Ost (40+%)

Perhaps followed by: Stuttgart I (20+%)
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« Reply #23 on: September 27, 2009, 05:58:28 am »
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hi,

i think cdu/csu/fdp will win with 33 cdu/csu & 15 fdp.

the left: 26 spd/10 left/ 12 green

cdu will gain about '20' überhangmandate and so they have a comfortable majority in the bundestag.
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« Reply #24 on: September 27, 2009, 07:55:32 am »


Perhaps followed by: Stuttgart I (20+%)

Why not Freiburg?
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