More greenshoots

[CARLHAYDEN]

AP FEATURED NEWS
Saturday September 26, 2009
Durable goods orders, new home sales disappoint
 
CHRISTOPHER S. RUGABER
AP Economics Writer

WASHINGTON (AP) - Orders for durable goods like aircraft and electronics fell unexpectedly in August, while sales of new homes rose less than expected. The weak reports renewed concerns about whether the economy can sustain a recovery with consumer spending held back by job losses, tight credit and falling home values.

Orders for durable goods dropped 2.4 percent in August, after rising a revised 4.8 percent in July, the Commerce Department said Friday. Economists had expected a 0.5 percent increase, according to a survey by Thomson Reuters. It was the second drop in three months in orders for goods expected to last at least three years.

A category known as "non-defense capital goods, excluding aircraft," a gauge of business investment in machinery and other items, fell 0.4 percent, its second straight drop. It fell 1.3 percent in July.

Some economists said they were concerned that the two straight declines show businesses aren't confident enough in the recovery to boost their investment in equipment.

The report was the second straight disappointing sign for the U.S. housing market. The National Association of Realtors on Thursday said sales of previously occupied homes, which make up the bulk of the market, dipped 2.7 percent last month.

Builders continue to make severe cuts in prices to attract buyers. The median sales price of $195,200 was 9.5 percent below July's $215,600. That was the largest monthly drop on records dating to 1963.

The stock market fell in midday trading. The Dow Jones industrial average dropped about 11 points, while broader indexes also dipped.

Orders for commercial aircraft and parts, an especially volatile category, sank 42.2 percent in August after nearly doubling in July.

Excluding aircraft and other transportation goods, orders were flat in August - below analysts' expectations of a 0.5 percent rise. Transportation goods orders dropped 9.3 percent.
The Boeing Co. said earlier this month that its August orders fell 11 percent, as weaker demand for air travel forces airlines to scale back plans to buy new planes.

The Chicago-based airplane maker also said commercial jet deliveries tumbled 22 percent last month compared with August 2008. Still, Boeing says it remains on track to deliver 480-485 planes this year, up from 375 in 2008.

Several other categories posted weak results. Orders for computers and electronic products dropped 0.7 percent, after rising for two straight months. Electrical equipment and appliance orders fell 0.5 percent, after jumping 4.2 percent in July.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

funny how over the last few weeks, you've ignored all the economic reports that blew past expectations, yet mention the two sub-par reports.

you're cherry picking

[CARLHAYDEN]

funny how over the last few weeks, you've ignored all the economic reports that blew past expectations, yet mention the two sub-par reports.

you're cherry picking

Well, lets see.

The Conference Board has ten components to its Leading Economic Index, the most heavily weighted one if Money supply (M2), which I dealt with in my thread: Money supply data.

The second most heavily weighted component is Average weekly hours, manufacturing.  While I agree that there has been an increase in this component, it is heavily overweighted by the Conference Board.

The third factor is Interest rate spread, 10-year Treasury bonds less federal funds, which has been seriously jiggered by the Fed, which has in turn aggravated international investors.

Those three factors account for more than 71% of the LEI.

Now, I have cited a variety of statistics in my posts, covering a range of economic data,
I have even tried to find favorable economic developments, and posted them on this forum (to the howls of the Obamanations).  Example: More good economic news thread.

You by contrast have merely exhibited a childlike faith in ECRI.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

Now, I have cited a variety of statistics in my posts, covering a range of economic data,
I have even tried to find favorable economic developments, and posted them on this forum (to the howls of the Obamanations).  Example: More good economic news thread.

yeah, you've been right down the middle of the road, haven't you? 

[CARLHAYDEN]

Now, I have cited a variety of statistics in my posts, covering a range of economic data,
I have even tried to find favorable economic developments, and posted them on this forum (to the howls of the Obamanations).  Example: More good economic news thread.

yeah, you've been right down the middle of the road, haven't you? 

Not interested if being "right down the middle of the road," but rather in being accurate.

Now, I predicted the economic difficulties on this forum long ago.

Now, I have a couple of questions for you:

1. How good are Christmas sales going to be this year?

2. What happens if those sales fail to meet expectations?

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

Now, I have cited a variety of statistics in my posts, covering a range of economic data,
I have even tried to find favorable economic developments, and posted them on this forum (to the howls of the Obamanations).  Example: More good economic news thread.

yeah, you've been right down the middle of the road, haven't you? 

Not interested if being "right down the middle of the road," but rather in being accurate.

Now, I predicted the economic difficulties on this forum long ago.

The real economic crisis is NOT in the housing industry but rather in the high rate of price increases for foodstuffs, particularyly dairy prices (especially milk and eggs).

your recollection is astounding!

---

Now, I have a couple of questions for you:

1. How good are Christmas sales going to be this year?

I don't know

---

2. What happens if those sales fail to meet expectations?

investors will probably be disappointed

[CARLHAYDEN]

Dude.

First, the problem with the rapid increase in the cost of basic foodstuffs (especilly dairy) at the time, was critical.  Fortunately the free market dealt with the problem.  Unfortunately the government made the housing problem worse!

Second, your ignorance of the importance of Christmas sales on the retail industry is simply amazing.