German Election Results Thread

[minionofmidas]

The region is western Rhineland with the high FDP-share is probably due to the proximity of Luxembourg. Many people commute there to work in the financial and insurance sector I guess.

Traditionally, vintners on the Mosel have been voting FDP.

[minionofmidas]

Remaining state results:

Schleswig-Holstein
turnout 73.8
CDU 32.2, SPD 26.8, FDP 16.3, Greens 12.7, Left 7.9, Pirates 2.1, NPD 1.0
Hamburg
turnout 71.1
CDU 27.9, SPD 27.5, Greens 15.6, FDP 13.2, Left 11.2, Pirates 2.6
Bremen
turnout 70.1
SPD 30.3, CDU 23.9, Greens 15.4, Left 14.2, FDP 10.6, Pirates 2.4, NPD 1.1
Brandenburg
turnout 67.1
Left 28.5, SPD 25.1, CDU 23.6, FDP 9.3, Greens 6.1, NPD 2.6, Pirates 2.5
Saxony Anhalt
turnout 60.5
Left 32.4, CDU 30.1, SPD 16.9, FDP 10.3, Greens 5.1, Pirates 2.4, NPD 2.2
Berlin
turnout 70.9
CDU 22.8, Left 20.2, SPD 20.2, Greens 17.4, FDP 11.5, Pirates 3.4, NPD 1.6, Animals 1.4
NRW
turnout 71.4
CDU 33.1, SPD 28.5, FDP 14.9, Greens 10.1, Left 8.4, Pirates 1.7

Some sidenotes:
Overhang seats were, for the CDU: 1 in Schleswig-Holstein, 2 in Mecklenburg Lower Pomerania, 4 in Saxony, 1 Thuringia, 2 in Rhineland Pfalz, 1 on the Saar and 10 in Baden Württemberg. For the CSU: 3 in (duh) Bavaria. For the SPD: none.
CDU in Hesse, and SPD in Bremen (not that it matters here) and Brandenburg got the worst of both worlds - no overhang, but no extra seats to distribute via the list either.

All five parties (counting the Union as one) won seats in every state. Even the Bremen FDP.

Greens above five % in every Eastern state - w00t.

The switch to Ste Lague actually mattered, and in the first, by party, distribution too (someone would need to do the math to see if it also affected by state distribution), costing the SPD a seat which (would have) went to the CSU (except it just meant one fewer overhang seat for them).

[minionofmidas]

Brandenburg, left actually won 22 direct Landtag seats to the SPD's 18 and the CDU's four. No overhang.

Schleswig-Holstein is all a matter of interpretation. Depending on what a phrase is supposed to refer to, there are two possible interpretations of the law. One gives a proportional distribution of
CDU 34, SPD 28, FDP 16, Greens 13, Left 6, SSW 4.
The other gives a hilariously non-proportional distribution of
CDU 34, SPD 23, FDP 14, Greens 11, Left 5, SSW 4
The Landeswahlleiterin chose to come up with her own interpretation that basically manages to use both interpretations at once, and pronounced
CDU 34, SPD 25, FDP 15, Greens 12, Left 5, SSW 4
to be the result.

Proportional result with the ordinary size of parliament would have been
CDU 23, SPD 19, FDP 11, Greens 9, Left 4, SSW 3.
CDU won 34 of the 40 direct seats - all but all three in Kiel and all three in Lübeck.

Theoretically, the interpretation used could yet change at the final proclamation, done by a body called the Landeswahlausschuss, where CDU+FDP are one vote shy of a majority. However, the SSW (one member there) has announced they'll accept the result. Whatever the Landeswahllausschuss decides may then end up in court - not only on whether it's a possible interpretation of the law (certainly true for interpretations one and two, rather dubious on interpretation three), but on whether it's constitutional, too. This question, too, is less than clearcut (for interpretations two and three, not interpretation one) though I'd lean to saying "no". All registered voters have standing to sue, so it's not as if the decision were up to the opposition parties alone.

It gets worse: The CDU-CSU-FDP federal coalition has a majority in the upper "chamber", the Bundesrat, only if Black-Yellow governs in Schleswig-Holstein.
And lol at BILD, btw. They (Frankfurt edition) tried to make it appear as if Carstensen had won
fair and square, though very narrowly, by simply not mentioning the existence of the SSW at all.

[Hatman 🍁]

Why doesn't the FDP win any direct seats? Do they not bother trying?

[Franzl]

Why doesn't the FDP win any direct seats? Do they not bother trying?

Well first of all, what purpose would it have? It's not like it would increase their total number of seats. Why should the FDP invest specifically in order to win a couple of districts?

But the Greens only won 1 seat as well, and that's only because that candidate is massively popular in her Berlin district.

Most voters choose between CDU and SPD tactically, as it's FPTP for those seats.

[Hans-im-Glück]

Why doesn't the FDP win any direct seats? Do they not bother trying?

Many FDP voters give the first vote to the CDU/CSU candidate and the FDP have no extrem strongholds. The Left is in East Germany very strong and the Greens have their strongholds in big cities, like Berlin.

[Hatman 🍁]

I'm just surprised that out of all of Germany, the FDP has no areas that they have a concentration enough that they win direct seats.

[Hash]

The region is western Rhineland with the high FDP-share is probably due to the proximity of Luxembourg. Many people commute there to work in the financial and insurance sector I guess.

Traditionally, vintners on the Mosel have been voting FDP.

Why? Tradition?

I'm just surprised that out of all of Germany, the FDP has no areas that they have a concentration enough that they win direct seats.

Their vote is more spread out compared to the Left or even Greenies, and their strongest areas are also normally very strong CDU-CSU.

[Verily]

I'm just surprised that out of all of Germany, the FDP has no areas that they have a concentration enough that they win direct seats.

They almost certainly could if they tried. Seats where the CDU is in first and the FDP is in second would easily vote FDP if the FDP made an effort. But doing so would only hurt the CDU-FDP coalition as it would mean fewer CDU overhang seats with no increase in seats for the FDP. There's just no reason for smaller parties to seek local seats at all.

[rob in cal]

I'm wondering if anyone has a link to a source with a full list of all the little parties that ran and their percentage of the vote. Most sources just show about 6% for sonstige and I'd like to know the ideoligical breakdown of that vote (I'm guessing Pirates and NDP are the biggest of the others).

[Hash]

I'm wondering if anyone has a link to a source with a full list of all the little parties that ran and their percentage of the vote. Most sources just show about 6% for sonstige and I'd like to know the ideoligical breakdown of that vote (I'm guessing Pirates and NDP are the biggest of the others).

http://www.bundeswahlleiter.de/en/bundestagswahlen/BTW_BUND_09/ergebnisse/bundesergebnisse/index.html

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

I'm just surprised that out of all of Germany, the FDP has no areas that they have a concentration enough that they win direct seats.

They almost certainly could if they tried. Seats where the CDU is in first and the FDP is in second would easily vote FDP if the FDP made an effort. But doing so would only hurt the CDU-FDP coalition as it would mean fewer CDU overhang seats with no increase in seats for the FDP. There's just no reason for smaller parties to seek local seats at all.

Of course, if the percentage change were to somehow be the same for 2013 as this time, the FDP would be the second largest party.

How did Vera Lengsfield do?  Did the voters agree that she had more to offer?

How much would the results change if the 5% threshold were applied at the State level instead of the Federal level?

[Hash]

Vera Lengsfeld got 11.6%. The worst result in Germany for the CDU.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Vera Lengsfeld got 11.6%. The worst result in Germany for the CDU.

Did she ever have a chance in her constituency, or did making a clean breast of things with her campaign poster hurt her chances?

[Meeker]

Vera Lengsfeld got 11.6%. The worst result in Germany for the CDU.

Did she ever have a chance in her constituency, or did making a clean breast of things with her campaign poster hurt her chances?

Her constituency was the only one won by a Green in the first vote (direct member election). From what I can tell it may be one of the, if not the, most liberal district in all of Germany. So she never really had a chance.

[Hash]

Vera Lengsfeld got 11.6%. The worst result in Germany for the CDU.

Did she ever have a chance in her constituency, or did making a clean breast of things with her campaign poster hurt her chances?

Why would she have a chance in that constituency?

[Middle-aged Europe]

Vera Lengsfeld got 11.6%. The worst result in Germany for the CDU.

Did she ever have a chance in her constituency, or did making a clean breast of things with her campaign poster hurt her chances?

Her constituency was the only one won by a Green in the first vote (direct member election). From what I can tell it may be one of the, if not the, most liberal district in all of Germany. So she never really had a chance.

It's probably one of the most left-wing districts in all of Europe.

[minionofmidas]

Vera Lengsfeld got 11.6%. The worst result in Germany for the CDU.

Did she ever have a chance in her constituency, or did making a clean breast of things with her campaign poster hurt her chances?

her only chance probably consisted in hurting the CDU enough to prevent it from winning any direct seats in the city. (Alternatively, she never had one- I'd have to check her position on the list.)

I'm just surprised that out of all of Germany, the FDP has no areas that they have a concentration enough that they win direct seats.

They almost certainly could if they tried. Seats where the CDU is in first and the FDP is in second would easily vote FDP if the FDP made an effort.

Uh, how? Not only is the gap pretty damn large in all of them*, a quarter to a third of the FDP list voters (very conservative estimate. Used to be an actual majority, back in the 90s) are tactical voters who if pressed prefer the CDU to the FDP, and at least two thirds of the macro-left voters, if forced to choose, would chose the CDU candidate over the FDP as currently branded. It is not a liberal party. It's a secular conservative party. Think Hoyre, not LD, not (norwegian) Venstre. That's in terms of policy - in terms of style, think Fremskritt.

The FDP could win - does win, on current results - some inner city high wealth enclaves with 30% of the vote over splintered opposition, but nothing close to 1/10 the size of a Bundestag constituency. It won the day votes in Frankfurt's West End, where eleven of its nineteen precinct wins were located.

*there are more of them than I thought at first glance. All but three are in Bavaria or Baden Württemberg, of course.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Vera Lengsfeld got 11.6%. The worst result in Germany for the CDU.

Did she ever have a chance in her constituency, or did making a clean breast of things with her campaign poster hurt her chances?

Her constituency was the only one won by a Green in the first vote (direct member election). From what I can tell it may be one of the, if not the, most liberal district in all of Germany. So she never really had a chance.

It's probably one of the most left-wing districts in all of Europe.

The coverage I had seen on her didn't mention anything about her electoral chances or the composition of her constituency, which is why I asked.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Al the maps are great!  Soo... when can we expect the others?

Presuming that my nice new internet connection stays, later today, maybe. Or early tomorrow.

[Tender Branson]

Here's a good overview chart of the results:

[Meeker]

What does the chart on the right hand side with the arrows pointing in and away from the various boxes mean?

[Tender Branson]

What does the chart on the right hand side with the arrows pointing in and away from the various boxes mean?

It´s the so called "Wählerstromanalyse" (Electoral Flow Analysis). It shows how many voters each party gained or lost from another party or from non-voters compared with the 2005 elections.

[Meeker]

What does the chart on the right hand side with the arrows pointing in and away from the various boxes mean?

It´s the so called "Wählerstromanalyse" (Electoral Flow Analysis). It shows how many voters each party gained or lost from another party or from non-voters compared with the 2005 elections.

And how can you guys tell that? Exit polling?

[Tender Branson]

What does the chart on the right hand side with the arrows pointing in and away from the various boxes mean?

It´s the so called "Wählerstromanalyse" (Electoral Flow Analysis). It shows how many voters each party gained or lost from another party or from non-voters compared with the 2005 elections.

And how can you guys tell that? Exit polling?

It`s complicated and only an estimate. SORA, which does this stuff here in Austria explains it in English:

How does the analysis of voter transitions work?

The voter transition analysis works without questioning individuals. Only aggregated data as election results of municipalities, communities, wards, etc. are used. Statistical correlations generated from these results allow predictions for possible electoral behaviour.

The idea is a simple one: if a party gains most votes in those municipalities in which another party had the most votes at the election before, it is interpreted as a vote transition between those parties.

This method is called multiple regression: "Regression" because we trace back the parties' results of the current election to the parties' results of the comparable election, and "Multiple" because we relate a party's current election result to the results of all parties of the comparable election.

The equation of voter transition analysis from the national election 1995 to the national election 1999 would look like this:

ÖVP04 = b1 × SPÖ99 + b2 × ÖVP99 + b3 × FPÖ99 + b4 × LIF99 + b5 × Greens99 + b6 × others99 + b7 × non voters99

http://www.sora.at/en/start.asp?b=266