German Election Results Thread

[minionofmidas]

I had a look over changes in registered voters numbers... pretty fascinating.

Federally +0.4
...
Bavaria +1.5
...
Declines in Hof, Weiden, Bayreuth, Kulmbach, Bad Kissingen (but not Coburg) with Hof at -3.1% and the others below -2%.
...

I tried to find an explanation for the odd Coburg numbers (turnout below 70%, number of registered voters growing while population is declining).
The answer is very simple: Compared to the preliminary result the number of registered voters went down by 4,815 in the final result (No idea, how they made up the preliminary numbers). Hence we have Coburg at -1.0% with turnout about 71%.

Some weird summing error presumably.

A note on the oddly shaped West Stuttgart Green borough: It's western half is uninhabited.

A note on Duisburg: Al can't read maps. That port area by the mouth of the Ruhr (Ruhrort, it's called) belongs to the borough facing it across the Rhine.

[minionofmidas]

And Dresden's done, one more round, Dresden's done.

Notes: 33, 34 and 44 are uninhabited (or almost so. Wiki lists populations of 89, 43 and 20 or some redonkulous figures like that), not listed in the precinct list, and it's not clear where the few people voted. Best to leave blank. (33 is an industrial area and also includes the airport. 44 is a huge forested common. 34 is almost inaccessible heathland that used to be owned by the NVA.) 46 and 47 share a postal precinct and had to be aggregated, though it's not clear why they do so. Certainly more postal voters in either than in 01, say.
There were only four others on the ballot in Saxony - NPD, BüSo, MLPD and REP, and they got 2.6, 1.0, 0.2 and 0.2 of the vote in Dresden, respectively.

Format is turnout CDU-SPD-Left-FDP-Greens.

01 72.2 26.8-18.3-23.9-14.0-13.7
02 62.8 34.5-17.7-25.2-  9.6-  9.8
03 67.4 34.5-17.9-23.3-12.7-  8.3
04 66.8 32.4-17.5-28.7-  9.5-  7.8
05 52.8 25.7-14.1-22.3-15.0-17.4 must be one weird neighborhood.
06 65.9 28.2-18.6-23.5-11.7-14.5
07 68.7 35.6-16.4-28.1-10.0-  6.2
11 71.2 16.4-16.7-16.9-  9.2-39.1 yeah. Area feels much like Friedrichshain (non-bombed part of).
12 73.3 27.3-13.2-21.3-13.7-21.3 Greens in second.
13 71.7 26.7-17.3-23.9-10.8-19.3
14 68.0 19.7-15.1-22.3-10.5-29.4
15 59.6 30.3-11.8-23.7-11.3-18.8
21 59.1 26.6-13.5-22.0-14.2-20.2
22 60.1 33.3-13.6-23.1-15.2-  9.8
23 60.1 39.2-12.0-20.6-16.0-  6.2
24 71.0 34.0-15.0-22.0-12.7-13.0
25 61.1 32.3-14.2-20.9-15.4-11.8
31 70.8 36.2-14.2-22.8-13.8-  9.1
32 74.4 40.2-13.2-12.7-15.8-  8.9
35 72.5 40.3-13.0-18.2-14.9-  8.8
36 76.1 38.4-14.0-17.3-15.8-10.5
41 79.3 35.6-14.2-13.4-16.2-18.5
42 77.5 38.1-15.4-15.1-13.4-15.1 Left in third.
43 72.0 34.8-15.4-17.6-12.5-16.2
45 68.8 41.5-13.6-17.5-16.4-  7.2
46 73.1 43.1-12.1-14.7-16.7-  8.7
51 75.6 35.7-15.6-14.6-16.0-15.9
52 76.4 32.9-15.7-14.1-14.2-21.2
53 70.2 33.9-16.2-21.8-12.4-12.2
54 73.0 35.8-16.0-19.5-13.1-12.1
55 64.9 34.6-14.5-24.5-13.5-  8.5
56 64.4 35.4-14.1-24.8-14.1-  6.2 FDP in third.
57 70.4 33.9-15.3-23.6-12.8-10.7
61 61.8 35.1-14.5-26.6-11.5-  6.2
62 71.7 36.1-14.6-21.3-14.0-10.0
63 74.6 41.3-14.0-15.1-16.2-10.2
64 63.6 36.1-14.0-22.8-14.0-  7.1
71 58.1 31.9-15.1-29.9-10.9-  5.9
72 52.1 33.0-13.9-30.8-11.6-  4.3 I think it should be clear what part of Berlin Prohlis and Gorbitz are like.
73 69.9 37.5-14.9-18.7-16.5-  8.0
74 74.0 40.6-12.1-18.4-16.2-  7.8
75 70.4 36.1-15.5-21.4-13.6-  9.6
76 64.8 31.4-15.4-21.2-14.0-13.9
77 58.4 34.6-15.6-24.5-14.1-  5.2
81 71.4 30.9-16.9-22.4-13.1-13.6
82 71.9 29.4-17.9-20.9-14.5-14.4
83 70.1 34.4-16.4-23.2-11.6-10.4
84 70.8 36.1-15.6-20.8-13.2-  9.7
85 69.9 37.5-13.5-20.3-14.0-10.5
86 76.7 30.7-18.7-16.5-14.0-17.3
90 68.2 43.1-11.9-15.9-14.2-  9.8
91 59.0 33.6-12.7-22.3-15.9-  9.9
92 61.4 28.0-14.7-19.8-16.6-16.6 FDP in fourth
93 64.1 29.1-14.6-19.3-16.5-16.4
94 67.8 36.8-14.7-19.8-14.8-10.2
95 52.5 30.5-13.5-30.6-11.4-  6.2
96 53.1 28.2-13.7-30.2-13.1-  7.7
97 55.9 28.7-14.2-28.6-12.9-  7.5 This is actually a single vote lead that just rounds that way.
98 68.1 38.9-13.3-18.4-15.0-  9.2
99 75.6 43.5-12.7-16.8-16.6-  6.4

It's obvious which side of the river took the worse hit in 1945. Turnout spread quite as bad as in the West. The way the Greens do great in some (mostly inner) high turnout suburbs and badly in others seems utterly weird. Although maybe not to someone who knows these places. 

[Filuwaúrdjan]

A note on Duisburg: Al can't read maps. That port area by the mouth of the Ruhr (Ruhrort, it's called) belongs to the borough facing it across the Rhine.

lol

That'll teach me to start working on maps after midnight. Will change it now.

[minionofmidas]

Any more maps being worked on?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Leading party (list vote) by political district (former in the case of Aachen).

[minionofmidas]

Question answered.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Changes from the European Elections to the Federal ones. City States not done as I don't know how their boroughs went in the Euros. Red = SPD "gain" from CDU, Pink = Left "gain" from SPD, Purple = Left "gain" from CDU, Blue = CDU "gain" from SPD, Green-Blue = CDU "gain" from Greens. List vote obviously.

Did this because Dresden is taking a while and because I wondered if there were any patterns of interest.

[minionofmidas]

Did this because I wondered if there were any patterns of interest.

CDU gains appear to be heavily concentrated near the northern part of the Upper Rhenanian Plain.

More seriously, Saxony-Anhalt is doing its old uniform swing state thing again. And there's some places going back that the SPD really has no business losing no matter the turnout (Recklinghausen!? Wilhelmshaven!?) And just areas that it won very narrowly this time.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

CDU gains appear to be heavily concentrated near the northern part of the Upper Rhenanian Plain.

Was slightly surprised that there were any - off the SPD, anyway. And both of those in the same state.

[minionofmidas]

CDU gains appear to be heavily concentrated near the northern part of the Upper Rhenanian Plain.

Was slightly surprised that there were any - off the SPD, anyway. And both of those in the same state.

Might be related to the Left's bad Euros result. They've done very well in the western Pfalz in the 2005 and 2009 federals after all, but not in the state elections in between. I'd need to look up how well they did in the area in the Euros. If it was bad enough, it might be that some of the left voters there came back to the SPD for the euros, presumably on actually Europe-related issues.

[minionofmidas]

Because noone cares, I've classified Hessian municipalities.

Category A: Places won by the SPD. (All these places had the CDU in second. None had a majority for CDU and FDP - even ignoring minor parties.)
Category B: Places won by the CDU where the new government still doesn't have a majority.
Category C: Places won by the CDU, with a majority for the government and the SPD in second place.
Category D: Places won by the CDU with the FDP in second place. Some of these, the CDU has a majority of its own. There might be one or two places of that type in Category C, but if so, I overlooked the fact.
Oh, and a one-place
Category X: Tie between CDU and SPD. Majority for the new government as the FDP outpolls Greens and Left combined.

Cities:
A: Kassel
B: Frankfurt, Offenbach, Darmstadt
C: Wiesbaden

Kassel rural:
A: all but Naumburg
B: Naumburg

Waldeck-Frankenberg:
A: Diemelstadt, Edertal, Frankenau, Haina, Vöhl
C: everything else

Schwalm-Eder:
A: 21 municipalities
B: Gilserberg, Ottrau
C: Gudensberg, Neukirchen, Oberaula, Schwarzenborn

Werra-Meißner:
A: all but Bad Sooden-Allendorf, Berkatal
B: Bad Sooden-Allendorf, Berkatal

Hersfeld-Rotenburg:
A: 14 municipalities
B: Bad Hersfeld, Bebra, Rotenburg (the three largest in the district!), Friedewald
C: Kirchheim, Neuenstein

Fulda:
C: Bad Salzschlirf, Burghaun, Fulda, Petersberg, Tann, Gersfeld, Neuhof, Kalbach, Flieden
D: remainder

Vogelsberg:
A: Feldatal, Grebenau, Lautertal, Romrod, Wartenberg
B: Alsfeld, Homberg, Lauterbach, Mücke, Schlitz, Schwalmtal
C: Herbstein, Kirtorf, Schotten, Ulrichstein, Gemünden, Grebenstein
D: Antrifttal, Freiensteinau

Marburg-Biedenkopf:
A: Angelburg, Cölbe, Ebsdorfergrund, Lahntal, Marburg, Steffenberg, Wetter, Wohratal
B: Biedenkopf, Breidenbach, Dautphetal, Fronhausen, Kirchhain, Lohna, Müchhausen, Rauschenberg, Weimar
C: Bad Endbach, Gladenbach, Neustadt, Stadtallendorf
D: Amöneburg (you can really tell where the old Catholic enclaves in Marburg and the Vogelsberg are!)

Gießen:
A: Biebertal, Staufenberg, Wettenberg
B: Gießen itself, Fernwald, Heuchelheim, Linden, Lollar
C: 10 municipalities

Lahn-Dill:
A: Siegbach, Lahnau
B: Aßlar, Hohenahr, Mittenaar, Wetzlar itself
C: everything else

Limburg-Weilburg:
A: Löhnberg, Weinbach
B: Weilburg
C: 15 municipalities
D: Dornburg

Rheingau-Taunus:
C: All but Schlangenbad, Niedernhausen
D: Schlangenbad, Niedernhausen (in the Rhein-Main region, category D has nothing to do with catholicism and everything with being far too posh for my taste. Though there'll be an  excemption at the other end of the region.)

Hochtaunus:
C: Grävenwiesbach, Weilrod, Neu Anspach, Oberursel, Steinbach
D: Usingen, Wehrheim, Schmitten, Glashütten, Königstein, Kronberg, Bad Homburg, Friedrichsdorf

Main-Taunus:
C: Schwalbach, Sulzbach, Hattersheim, Flörsheim, Hochheim
D: everything else

Wetterau:
A: Florstadt, Glauburg, Hirzenhain, Limeshain, Ranstadt, Wölfersheim
B: Echzell, Nidda
C: 16 municipalities
D: Bad Nauheim (worth pointing out that Nidda is the largest place in categories A or B, but only the seventh in the district behind Vilbel, Nauheim, Friedberg, Butzbach, Karben and Büdingen, in order. In the Wetterau, the story is suburban new right versus rural traditional left.)

Main-Kinzig:
A: Brachttal
B: Erlensee
C: 24 municipalities (loads of close results. Still a phenomenally bad showing.)
D: Freigericht, Jossgrund (no, these are Catholic enclaves again. Well, Jossgrund anyways, not sure exactly about Freigericht. Anyways, not really the Rhein-Main area anymore)
X: Flörsbachtal

Offenbach rural:
B: Egelsbach
C: 8 municipalities
D: Heusenstamm, Obertshausen, Rödermark, Seligenstadt (that was the excemption I meant)

Darmstadt-Dieburg:
A: Reinheim, Ober-Ranstadt
B: Erzhausen, Weiterstadt, Griesheim, Pfungstadt, Bickenbach, Alsbach-Hähnlein, Modautal, Mühltal, Roßdorf, Groß-Umstadt
C: Seeheim-Jugenheim (exchange these last two, and the map is incredibly clearcut), Fischbachtal, Groß-Bieberau, Groß-Zimmern, Messel, Dieburg, Münster, Eppertshausen, Babenhausen, Schaafheim, Otzberg

Groß-Gerau:
A: Ginsheim-Gustavsburg, Bischofsheim, Raunheim, Büttelborn, Biebesheim, Stockstadt
B: Kelsterbach, Rüsselsheim, Mörfelden-Walldorf (I found that a little shocking. CDU ahead in Mörfelden_Walldorf? Okay, so Greens and Left together were as strong as the SPD but...), Groß-Gerau, Riedstadt
C: Nauheim, Trebur, Gernsheim

Bergstraße:
A: Groß Rohrheim
B: Lautertal
C: 20 municipalities

Odenwald:
A: Beerfelden, Breuberg, Hesseneck, Höchst, Rothenberg, Sensbachtal
B: Fränkisch Crumbach, Lützelbach, Michelstadt
C: Bad König, Brensbach, Bromsbachtal, Erbach, Mossautal, Reichelsheim

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Interesting. Is there a map of all the municipalities? If there isn't I could draw one myself, but it would take a while.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Dresden. The first fully ex-DDR city that I've ever done one of these for.

[minionofmidas]

Interesting. Is there a map of all the municipalities? If there isn't I could draw one myself, but it would take a while.

There probably is, but don't bother. I kept the no. of categories simple so people can (if they want to) picture the maps themselves. I'd rather you do more cities. I suggest Essen next.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Interesting. Is there a map of all the municipalities? If there isn't I could draw one myself, but it would take a while.

There probably is, but don't bother. I kept the no. of categories simple so people can (if they want to) picture the maps themselves. I'd rather you do more cities. I suggest Essen next.

Ah, O.K. I did clean up the Essen basemap the other day, so that makes sense

Btw, what's with the (relative) concentration of SPD support in the centre of Dresden? The Greens upside down "u" is a little surprising as well, but you sort of mentioned that with the data.

[Hash]

What are those two wards/districts the Linke won like?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

What are those two wards/districts the Linke won like?

The area is called Gorbitz and this is a photo from 1987:

[minionofmidas]

What are those two wards/districts the Linke won like?

The area is called Gorbitz and this is a photo from 1987:

Prohlis (the two areas further west where the Left was also quite strong though the CDU narrowly won) is much the same.

Btw, what's with the (relative) concentration of SPD support in the centre of Dresden?

No idea. Wossies? (West German transplants, that is.)

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The eastern arm of that is along the river. And makes a limited amount of sense to me. Don't know anything about the area in the southwestern arm. Looks perfectly strange to me, though maybe it's relatively strongly prewar.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Essen.

[minionofmidas]

Pretty strong polarization, isn't it. When I saw election results come in, I thought the CDU would probably pick up Essen South. Dortmund too has a bourgeois south side, though it's not nearly as pronounced IIRC.

EDIT: Wait - the SPD still polled majorities in some locales? Wow.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Pretty strong polarization, isn't it.

Pretty impressive as such things go, yeah.

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Yes - in a place called Vogelheim. SPD 50.6%, CDU 14.7%, Left 13.8%, FDP 7%, Greens 6%

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Darmstadt.

[minionofmidas]

Sweet.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Made a start on Nuremberg (looks very interesting, actually) but fucked up the key (scroll down in future, you idiot) so have had to start again. It should be up later today.

[minionofmidas]

Don't we sort of have a map of Nuremberg already? Do Dortmund and Wiesbaden and Leipzig!