German Election Results Thread

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Yeah... there is something I can do about that, isn't there...

[minionofmidas]

Yeah... there is something I can do about that, isn't there...

Are you thinking what I'm thinking, or of a precinct map?`Or both?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Yeah... there is something I can do about that, isn't there...

Are you thinking what I'm thinking, or of a precinct map?`Or both?

First one, then the other

[Хahar 🤔]

Perhaps this ought to be unstickied.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Perhaps this ought to be unstickied.

DON'T QUESTION MY AUTHORITY!

Er... yeah... it probably should be. At some point. When I remember.

[Хahar 🤔]

Will I now be eaten by a bear?

[minionofmidas]

Will I now be eaten by a bear?

No. By me. Please let yourself be escorted to the fryingpan.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

A bigger picture can be found in the gallery.

Minor errors possible. They key is the same as: https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/GALLERY/8_27_09_09_9_06_22.PNG except that the lowest numbers shown on those keys are usually a little lower on the above (which makes no difference to the actual map).

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Again, a bigger picture may be found in the gallery. Other notes apply also.

[minionofmidas]

Why are they in different galleries though?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Because I filed the one in the wrong place - has now been moved.

[minionofmidas]

Because I filed the one in the wrong place - has now been moved.

Oh. That would explain it I suppose.

Is there anything you, you know, want to know?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Is there anything you, you know, want to know?

Depends how much time you have at the moment

Obviously comments on the reasons for the patterns of support for each party would be nice, but if you don't have that long, then Bornheim's voting patterns look interesting and Gutleut-Bahnhofsviertel had a weird result that could do with some explaining.

[minionofmidas]

Lemme see...

in case you have looked at the precinct results for the Gutleut and the precinct map, a lot of it is already explained - two of those five precincts don't match the other three, oh no they don't, not at all they do.



This is the bulk of 151-04. This is newly built on ex-industrial land, and it's a dockland-style yuppie enclave. (A bit more of the same is happening north of the station, at the Gallus' easternmost end.) Note the houses on the old pier.

Here with facing side also built.

While precinct 151-01 is mostly a 30s built estate of row houses hidden deep in the recesses of industrial/warehousing country.

The rows west of the red line here:

Yeah, and the remainder is basically Frankfurt's station quarter. Famous red light industry (in the northern part of 090), noncitizen majority, some yuppiefication, very small flats behind stately facades on huge houses built around 1900, drunks, junkies, students and mosques. Some very marginal remnants of a furrier cottage industry that once existed in the area, too. Northern, eastern, southern fringe swallowed up by the nearby finance district.


Bornheim has pre-1918 parts that are just the ex-working-class end of the continuum across the North End. (The common parlance borders of Bornheim to the south and east west are highly fuzzy, but certainly well south and east west of the official ones. Using them, it actually makes more sense to describe the pre-1918 parts of Bornheim as the Greens' strongest area, not the North End.) Half the pictures here are from right around the 271-240 border... either side.

And then there's estateland. Though "special" estateland in that it's built so as to merge into Bornheim fairly seamlessly. The Bornheimer Hang estate (282, here shown freshly constructed) is 20s/30s, the area in the north (the northwestern part of 272, as it were) is partly ancient - 1870s - and that part votes Greenish - but the greater part is 1960s or so. And then in the 70s they added some ugly tower blocks north of the Bornheimer Hang, just east of the ancient village of Bornheim.
Anywhere in Bornheim, people feel they live "in Bornheim", not "in the x estate" as can happen elsewhere. But the kind of house they live in still informs their voting behavior, basically.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Interesting

[minionofmidas]

Is there anything you, you know, want to know?

Depends how much time you have at the moment

Obviously comments on the reasons for the patterns of support for each party would be nice

Comments on the SPD's are a bit unnecessary seeing as they're essentially randomly distributed except for the ultraposhest bits. At least when you look at share of the registered votership rather than share of the vote cast. (Though the Riederwald is still their second best result... the best is actually Enkheim. And the Gallus is somewhere in the middle of the table. Cough.) The standard deviation of SPD results is just .0167. (The Left's is .0166, though on half the vote so it means more. The Greens' is .046, FDP .042, CDU .04.) That's what you get for being the only Volkspartei still in existence and sucking royally.

The CDU obviously does best in posh and/or basically inner suburban rather than urban areas. The FDP does much the same except with an added bonus in the unequivocally urban poshlands (and, on the precinct level, in a number of 151-04-like places.) Age structure plays a role in describing the difference; so does the survival of non-negligible numbers of elderly working class CDU voters. 60s/70s built areas, especially, tend to have a lot of Christian Democrat votes of that type (they also have low turnout, exaggerating the CDU's strength in these places.) *looks at the Northwest especially*

The Greens' strongholds are of course the obvious Bobo areas of the North End/non-estate Bornheim and Bockenheim Proper, obviously. Inner Sachsenhausen to a lesser extent. (a note on students: The University institutions aren't quite where you think they are. Though the students are, insofar as they aren't living at home with their parents.) They also do well enough wherever there's a lot of older housing stock... or very new one (which means few olds). (The former US Housings, especially in Ginnheim, exchanged their population for an entirely new one 15 years ago, and thus should be counted as new.)

And the Left map is just what the SPD map used to be.
Okay, not really. They do above-average in the Green strongholds - except the most affluent bits like the southwestern North End or the relevant parts of Sachsenhausen - they do greatest in the ancient SPD strongholds of the Gallus and the Riederwald, and all across the outer parts of the city they have marked outcrops wherever an area feels a bit fucked. This'll show up much more markedly on a precinct map, and is somewhat irrespective of the remaining parties' strenght (ie it happens in fucked 70s estates with a lot of CDU-voting ethnic German olds and few young ethnic Germans like the Nordweststadt or northern Zeilsheim just as in somewhat fucked ancient housing stock areas like Old Höchst and Old Rödelheim, or very new fucked areas like the Housings or the Höchster Oberfeld, areas with lots of Greens and very few rightwing voters.

And then there's the peculiar weakness of both Greens and FDP west of the motorway in the entire ex-Höchst District area, a fifth of the city. Which I find to be only partly explained by all the factors cited above. And in the Greens' case is partly organizational weakness after the local Greens went over the the PDS en bloc around 2001 or so. But still leaves something to be explained.


Just for fun. Correlation between parties' support. Again based on share of registered voters.

statistically relevant
CDU-Left -.833
FDP-Left -.734
CDU-FDP +.635
SPD-FDP -.552
SPD-Left +.415

of doubtful statistical relevance
FDP-Greens +.29
CDU-SPD -.225
CDU-Greens -.199
Greens-Left +.151

just plain not correlated
SPD-Greens -.083

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Also interesting

Btw, looking over all the maps done so far, the general patterns of support for most parties seem to be quite similar in most cities in the West, except that SPD support seems to be more concentrated in cities historically dominated by heavy industry. Is this one of those questions that answers itself or is there a different explanation?

Also, is (asking just about Frankfurt now) the division of the bourgeois vote (too tempting) between CDU and FDP mostly about age, or occupation (managerial versus professional or whatever)?

[minionofmidas]

Also interesting

Btw, looking over all the maps done so far, the general patterns of support for most parties seem to be quite similar in most cities in the West, except that SPD support seems to be more concentrated in cities historically dominated by heavy industry. Is this one of those questions that answers itself or is there a different explanation?

Hmmm... what is this based on - the Ruhr? Remember that the Ruhr (like the South Welsh coalfield. Though it's nowhere as mountainous, obviously) was an area of low population density into the 19th century. It did have some older urban centres, and the post-20s-reforms cities are usually built around them, but they weren't particularly important ones. The Ruhr was a "frontier society" in the time of its massive growth. All the non-Ruhr large cities we've mapped here were large (by the time's standards) before the Industrial Revolution, and most were capital cities.
Besides, what's a heavy industry? Berlin, Frankfurt, Cologne had no mines or steelworks (though the rural district just west of Cologne is ancient lignite mining country, of course) but they have (or have had) some pretty heavy manufacturing. And Frankfurt and Cologne have chemical industry, of course.

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How the fuck am I supposed to know without decent statistics on anything like that. I would guess the average FDP voter probably has a higher income than the average CDU voter of the same age, but not necessarily more assets.

[minionofmidas]

Addendum: Probably ought to throw something in about social liberalism/lifestyle choices/whatever for the FDP-CDU difference. Not that there would be a clearcut division, of course.

Further addendum: Take a look at p.44 ff. here, on household types by Stadtteil.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Hmmm... what is this based on - the Ruhr?

Mostly, yeah. I was wondering whether this is because of 'political' factors (political culture, organisation, etc) or socio-economic ones. Or maybe a combination of the two.

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The joke about mentioning 'heavy industry' is that it can mean almost anything you want it to

Actually, I was just thinking of a way of putting 'industrial city without as many historic, administrative, service, etc. functions' in a way that didn't read as 'industrial city without as many historic, administrative, service, etc. functions', which reads pretty clunky.

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No idea, but was curious; sometimes that sort of thing is known, sometimes it isn't. One of the funniest things about elections (IMO anyway) is the radically different versions of who supports who told by people from different parties, newspapers or whatever.

Both questions relate to my... er... 'serious'... interests, in case you couldn't tell

[minionofmidas]

Both questions relate to my... er... 'serious'... interests, in case you couldn't tell

You have 'serious' interests? First I hear about it.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Both questions relate to my... er... 'serious'... interests, in case you couldn't tell

You have 'serious' interests? First I hear about it.

I used inverted commas for a reason.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Btw, I'm wondering about how to do the precinct maps. Maybe breaking the city into parts and doing those and posting them up and then (at the end) stitching them all together.

[Хahar 🤔]

Both questions relate to my... er... 'serious'... interests, in case you couldn't tell

You have 'serious' interests? First I hear about it.

I used inverted commas for a reason.

Is that what you fellows call apostrophes?

[minionofmidas]

Btw, I'm wondering about how to do the precinct maps. Maybe breaking the city into parts and doing those and posting them up and then (at the end) stitching them all together.

The Landtag constituencies maybe (perhaps splitting the oversized sixth)? Or the Ortsbezirke (with a joint map for the four tiny northern ones)?