German Election Results Thread

[minionofmidas]

CDU/CSU 33.5 - SPD 22.5 - FDP 15 - Left 12.5 - Greens 10.5 - Pirates 2.0 - other 4.0 (ARD exit poll)

[minionofmidas]

Turnout estimated at 72.5. With the exact kind of SPD result to go with it.

SlH
CDU 31 - SPD 25.5 - FDP 15.5 - Greens 12 - Left 6.5 - SSW 4 - other 5.5

If this is the result, this thing will go to the courts... I'll explain later. Turnout 74.5

Brandenburg
SPD 31.5 - Left 27.5 - CDU 21.5 - FDP 8 - Greens 5.5 - DVU 1 (lol!) - other 5. Turnout 67

[minionofmidas]

Schleswig-Holstein has relatively many direct seats, well over half the Parliament. So very many overhang mandates. Expected to go to the CDU, of course.
And a paragraph in the state law that can be read as limiting the equalization mandates to twice as many as the overhang mandates (ie, basically no limit) or limiting them to the same number as overhang mandates (as also in Saxony) - which on these figures would be enough to throw this thing.
The same wording is used in local elections (Schleswig-Holstein has direct seats there too) and is actually getting interpreted differently in different communes. With courts having upheld both interpretations.

[minionofmidas]

Certainly (I've thought of it too). But then we next need to ask us how many votes the Nazis got (just singling them out because they're probably the next largest party behind the Pirates).

[minionofmidas]

ARD Projection, already based on a couple results.
33.4 - 22.7 - 14.8 - 12.5 - 10.6
Marginally better.

[minionofmidas]

I'm talking about exit polls. Remember how Stoiber declared himself the winner of the election based on exit polls and then as the votes were counted he had to withdraw his declaration?

Was closer than now, though. And Stoiber's declaration was viewed as quite premature by all and sundry at the time.

[minionofmidas]

I note that the CSU has lost about one percentage point - one in seven voters - while the CDU is approximately stable.

[minionofmidas]

Unemployed voters:
Left 26
SPD 22
CDU/CSU 21
FDP 10
Greens 9
other 12

(Sampling error alert)

[minionofmidas]

What happened to the DVU in Brandenburg?

Become a totally disorganized joke. And had the NPD run against it as a result.

[minionofmidas]

49% rated unemployment as the biggest issue, which is seemingly 31% down on 2005.

So are official unemployment figures. (shrugs)

[minionofmidas]

49% rated unemployment as the biggest issue, which is seemingly 31% down on 2005.

So are official unemployment figures. (shrugs)

Official or "official"?

Official unemployment figures were closer to the truth in 2005 than is usual, due to a law change that it took time to adjust to. (Indeed, they may have been actually overstated.) But there was *some* real job creation in the years after until the economic crash, and *relatively* little job loss since.

[minionofmidas]

Can someone give me a concise explanation of the German seat-allocation system? I'm almost getting it but not quite.

What I've got is this: you have 2 votes. One for a candidate, FPTP like in the US or UK and one for a party (like in Sweden). If you get too few seats in the FPTP-system you get compensated in some way but if you get too many you can keep them (the überhang). But I'm not clear on the details.

Seats are allocated by list vote, first to parties, then to state parties. When a party has won too many direct seats in that state (number of direct seats is half the number of seats total) then it gets to keep the surplus.
Don't bother to understand it, it's been declared unconstitutional from 2011.

[minionofmidas]

Frankfurt on 89 precincts

CDU 28.9
SPD 23.5
FDP 16.2
Greens 14.4
Left 11.4
Pirates 2.5
NPD 1.1
Animals 1.1

In case you're wondering, yes that Green vote will go up.

[minionofmidas]

Lol, precincts 140 01 and 140 02, southwesternmost corner of the East End (just east of where I live.) Weird mix of poor 100-plus year old housing, poor 50s and 60s housing (lots of immigrants in both), and yuppie enclave hyper-rich 2000s housing.
Greens 258 (21.8%)
SPD 255
FDP 244
CDU 229 (19.4%)
Left 144 (12.2%)
Pirates 33 (2.8%)
other 20

[minionofmidas]

Been looking at the exit poll breakdowns on the ZDF site - yeah I don't put too much stock in them, but they can be interesting. Anyway, in some (but not all) ways the sociological profile of SPD voters in the West seems to have more in common with Left voters in the East and with Easten SPD voters.

I suppose that should be a "than". Makes sense.

[minionofmidas]

198 precincts
CDU 27.3
SPD 23.4
Greens 16.0
FDP 16.0
Left 11.7
Pirates 2.5
Animals 1.1
NPD 1.0

CDU ahead by about three points in both direct constituencies.

[minionofmidas]

You'd have to follow the diverse state and municipal sites. Federal site will only show completed constituencies and thus not be interesting for hours. Actually, much the same will hold for many state sites.

[minionofmidas]

Complete results for the Old Town and the Riederwald

Old Town
Turnout 72.8
CDU 27.0, SPD 20.9, FDP 19.4, Green 18.5, Left 9.9
Riederwald
Turnout 63.9
SPD 30.5, Left 20.6, CDU 18.7, Green 12.0, FDP 10.1. Pirates 3.2, Animals 2.3, in case you were wondering where this year's crop of protest third party voters comes from.

[minionofmidas]

A bit of District 66 is in (Brandenburg):

Zenker, Thomas (SPD)     2.504    25,9 %
Dr. Brie, Andreas (DIE LINKE)    2.719    28,1 %
Stübgen, Michael (CDU)    2.947    30,5 %

Was roughly 35-26-26 for SPD in 2005.

Please. André Brie.

[minionofmidas]

Riederwald
Turnout 63.9
SPD 30.5, Left 20.6, CDU 18.7, Green 12.0, FDP 10.1. Pirates 3.2, Animals 2.3, in case you were wondering where this year's crop of protest third party voters comes from.

Wow.

Yeah. I think that's more than the KPD got in 1946.

[minionofmidas]

Hessen Projection:

CDU: 31% (-10)
SPD: 26% (-2)
FDP: 17% (+5)
Greens: 12% (+2)
Left: 9% (+3)

What the hell are you comparing to here?

[minionofmidas]

Gutleut & Bahnhof
Turnout 68.4
Greens 21.7
FDP 20.7
SPD 20.2
CDU 19.0
Left 13.1
Pirates 3.6

Lmao.

[minionofmidas]

Worth noting that turnout is low in areas full of old conservative non-posh people too.

Sossenheim
Turnout 62.6
CDU 34.2, SPD 22.1, FDP 15.7, Left 12.1, Greens 9.8

Eckenheim
Turnout 66.1
CDU 26.4, SPD 23.9, Greens 15.5, FDP 14.7, Left 13.3

By contrast
Harheim
Turnout 82.9
CDU 37.0, SPD 20.6, FDP 18.7, Greens 12.6, Left 6.4

FDP currently leading in Westend South.

[minionofmidas]

It's important that Germany continues the fight in Afghanistan

Indeed. Provided it avoids any more incidents like that fuel tanker one.

It's called a war crime.

[minionofmidas]

I'm calling both Frankfurt seats for the CDU.

Few more Stadtteile in, but I'll leave be with posting until we're all through.
Westend S is in, and the CDU just pipped the FDP. Turnout differentials within the city are nothing short of insane.