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| | |-+  what if this is elections' scenario
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Author Topic: what if this is elections' scenario  (Read 10165 times)
dunn
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« on: March 05, 2004, 04:55:33 pm »
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What if:
Election night....In a race that beats the 2000 nuthouse the presidential elections will go to the house.
all network predictions are 269-269 tie:



final result:
Kerry - 48.762%
Bush - 48.761%
Nader - 2.00%
all others - 0.477%

everybody preperd for the house, BUT On on the first Monday after the second Wednesday in December one elector - does not matter which party - votes for the other guy. 270-268

what is America reaction
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« Reply #1 on: March 05, 2004, 05:10:53 pm »
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If it is a Democrat shifting, riots in DC.

If it is a Republican changing, riots in Houston.

People would not be happy at all, and a new election would be called for-and no matter who the beneficiary was, I would support it (Especially if it went to Bush, though, for two reasons: 1. I'm a Democrat. 2. In the scenario Kerry won the popular vote. As I said, UI would still campaign for a new election even if it did favor Kerry though).
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Nation
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« Reply #2 on: March 05, 2004, 05:13:14 pm »
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Well, one DC elector abstained from voting last election (to protest DC not having congressional representation), so it could happen again, I guess.
« Last Edit: March 05, 2004, 05:21:49 pm by of_thisnation »Logged

i dont know, but i've been told
that a yankee politician ain't got no soul
dunn
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« Reply #3 on: March 05, 2004, 05:20:18 pm »
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Well, one DC elector abstained from voting last year (to protest DC not having congressional representation), so it could happen again, I guess.

yeah, and in 76' and in 88'
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California Dreamer
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« Reply #4 on: March 05, 2004, 05:21:54 pm »
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what exactly are the rules...is it the house of the full congress?  Isnt it by delegation and not a straight vote?
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angus
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« Reply #5 on: March 05, 2004, 05:22:08 pm »
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There would be madness, chaos, calls for punitive damages, and laywers' phones ringing off the hooks.  Every tv in tvland would be tuned to CNN for the latest update (which would contain exactly the same information as the last latest update five minutes ago).  There would be legisation introduced to amend the constitution's electoral process.  Babies screaming, old ladies crying, and George and John making speeches on TV.  Clinton would be sought out for an "expert opinion" on the matter.

For about five minutes.  Then Clinton would go back to his cheeseburgers and fries and interns, and the rest of us would return to more important matters like the WWF smackdown, monster truck shows, sushi, nihilist poetry readings, pillowfights, and laundry.
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dunn
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« Reply #6 on: March 05, 2004, 05:28:28 pm »
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There would be madness, chaos, calls for punitive damages, and laywers' phones ringing off the hooks.  Every tv in tvland would be tuned to CNN for the latest update (which would contain exactly the same information as the last latest update five minutes ago).  There would be legisation introduced to amend the constitution's electoral process.  Babies screaming, old ladies crying, and George and John making speeches on TV.  Clinton would be sought out for an "expert opinion" on the matter.

For about five minutes.  Then Clinton would go back to his cheeseburgers and fries and interns, and the rest of us would return to more important matters like the WWF smackdown, monster truck shows, sushi, nihilist poetry readings, pillowfights, and laundry.
lol

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angus
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« Reply #7 on: March 05, 2004, 05:28:33 pm »
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what exactly are the rules...is it the house of the full congress?  Isnt it by delegation and not a straight vote?

In the case of a tie, each of the fifty states gets one vote.  Majority wins.  That's pretty much it.

But in the case of an irregularity suchas that described above by dunn.  You pretty much live with it.  End of debate.

We now return you to your regularly scheduled programming.
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dunn
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« Reply #8 on: March 05, 2004, 05:30:38 pm »
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what exactly are the rules...is it the house of the full congress?  Isnt it by delegation and not a straight vote?

In the case of a tie, each of the fifty states gets one vote.  Majority wins.  That's pretty much it.

But in the case of an irregularity suchas that described above by dunn.  You pretty much live with it.  End of debate.

We now return you to your regularly scheduled programming.

not just a tie Angus, even if its 269-200-69 or whatever, when there is no majority in ev
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« Reply #9 on: March 05, 2004, 05:33:58 pm »
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right.  anything less than a majority (270 since 1960) doesn't win.  and I imagine in the case of the 269 all which you describe, during the several weeks between election night and the *real* election night, many phones will be ringing, many checkbooks will be opened, and many favors recalled.  Both sides will be doing their homework.  

Should that fail, of course, it goes into the house.  Bush wins.
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« Reply #10 on: March 05, 2004, 05:35:14 pm »
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If one candidate was clearly ahead, even if it WAS Bush, I'd support him.

If it was 269-269, which states would vote for whom?

I'll be back :p
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dunn
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« Reply #11 on: March 05, 2004, 05:39:16 pm »
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If one candidate was clearly ahead, even if it WAS Bush, I'd support him.

If it was 269-269, which states would vote for whom?

I'll be back :p
its up there on my map
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angus
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« Reply #12 on: March 05, 2004, 05:41:28 pm »
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that requires some homework.  I'm about to take a bicycle ride.  It's 69 and sunny in my little piece of suburbia.  I imagine you'd have to be *really* wealthy and powerful, even by American standards, to buy off even a small state's legislative assembly.  So just look at majorities in each legislature.  I believe there are more reps than dems.

Thus, either way, Bush wins.  Smiley
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California Dreamer
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« Reply #13 on: March 05, 2004, 05:52:53 pm »
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i believe that it is the US congressional delegation that votes (not state assemblies)

I am curious how many state delegations are different than this map. I do think it would cause riots in the streets of a given state if the reps from that state voted differently than their state's popular vote.


I do think a tie is quite a possibility. W. Virginia and N. Hampshire are at this point lean Kerry.
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Gustaf
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« Reply #14 on: March 05, 2004, 05:57:19 pm »
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The interesting thins is if a state delegation is tied... Cheesy
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Emsworth
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« Reply #15 on: March 05, 2004, 05:58:10 pm »
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Quote
If it was 269-269, which states would vote for whom?
If what you're asking is which states would vote for whom in the House of Representatives if the electoral vote were tied 269-269, then of course the answer depends on the results of the congressional elections. The majorities of the different delegations are:

- Republican: 30
- Alabama
- Alaska
- Arizona
- Colorado
- Connecticut
- Delaware
- Florida
- Georgia
- Idaho
- Illinois
- Indiana
- Iowa
- Kansas
- Kentucky
- Louisiana
- Michigan
- Missouri
- Montana
- Nebraska
- Nevada
- New Hampshire
- New Mexico
- North Carolina
- Ohio
- Oklahoma
- Pennsylvania
- South Carolina
- Utah
- Virginia
- Wyoming

- Democrat: 14
- Arkansas
- California
- Hawaii
- Maine
- Maryland
- Massachusetts
- New Jersey
- New York
- North Dakota
- Oregon
- Rhode Island
- Tennessee
- Washington
- West Virginia

- Independent: 1
- Vermont (will probably vote Democrat)

- Tied, Democrat & Republican: 5
- Minnesota
- Mississippi
- South Dakota (only seat, previously held by Rep. Janklow, vacant)
- Texas (will probably vote Republican)
- Wisconsin

If the state of the parties does not change (unlikely), the Republicans would win in the House of Representatives.
« Last Edit: March 05, 2004, 05:59:44 pm by Emsworth »Logged
dunn
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« Reply #16 on: March 05, 2004, 06:00:34 pm »
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The interesting thins is if a state delegation is tied... Cheesy
then they seat until a decition
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Gustaf
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« Reply #17 on: March 05, 2004, 06:01:57 pm »
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The interesting thins is if a state delegation is tied... Cheesy
then they seat until a decition


I know, there's no tie-breaker...now, let's assume that the Dems win back a couple of state delqagtions (unlikely, I know) making it 25-25. THEN what ahppens? Wink
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« Reply #18 on: March 05, 2004, 06:03:10 pm »
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DELEGATES
KERRY
American Samoa
Guam
Puerto Rico
Virgin Is.

BUSH
-

STATES
BUSH
Alabama
Alaska
Arizona
Colorado
Connecticut
Delaware
Florida
Georgia
Idaho
Illinois
Indiana
Iowa
Kansas
Kentucky
Louisiana
Michigan
Missouri
Montana
Nebraska
Nevada
New Hampshire
New Mexico
North Carolina
Ohio
Oklahoma
Pennsylvania
South Carolina
Utah
Wyoming

KERRY
Arkansas
California
DC
Hawaii
Maine
Maryland
Massachusetts
New Jersey
New York
North Dakota
Oregon
Rhode Island
Tennessee
Washington
West Virginia

TIE
Minnesota
Mississippi
Texas
Wisconsin

INDEPENDENT
Vermont

UNKNOWN
South Dakota

So a firm win to Bush if it goes to the house Sad
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Gustaf
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« Reply #19 on: March 05, 2004, 06:04:53 pm »
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DELEGATES
KERRY
American Samoa
Guam
Puerto Rico
Virgin Is.

BUSH
-

STATES
BUSH
Alabama
Alaska
Arizona
Colorado
Connecticut
Delaware
Florida
Georgia
Idaho
Illinois
Indiana
Iowa
Kansas
Kentucky
Louisiana
Michigan
Missouri
Montana
Nebraska
Nevada
New Hampshire
New Mexico
North Carolina
Ohio
Oklahoma
Pennsylvania
South Carolina
Utah
Wyoming

KERRY
Arkansas
California
DC
Hawaii
Maine
Maryland
Massachusetts
New Jersey
New York
North Dakota
Oregon
Rhode Island
Tennessee
Washington
West Virginia

TIE
Minnesota
Mississippi
Texas
Wisconsin

INDEPENDENT
Vermont

UNKNOWN
South Dakota

So a firm win to Bush if it goes to the house Sad

You COULD try and win it back... Wink then again, maybe not... Sad
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hughento
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« Reply #20 on: March 05, 2004, 06:05:42 pm »
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Damn you Ensworth Cheesy

I just spent 15 minutes trawling through the office of the clerk of the house findind party affiliation of every state...oh well.
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Emsworth
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« Reply #21 on: March 05, 2004, 06:06:37 pm »
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I know, there's no tie-breaker...now, let's assume that the Dems win back a couple of state delqagtions (unlikely, I know) making it 25-25. THEN what ahppens? Wink
Remember the Jefferson-Burr election? The House of Representatives voted again and again, and after 36 ballots, finally elected Jefferson.
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Gustaf
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« Reply #22 on: March 05, 2004, 06:07:28 pm »
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Damn you Ensworth Cheesy

I just spent 15 minutes trawling through the office of the clerk of the house findind party affiliation of every state...oh well.

Yeah, I was wondering why you posted that same thing... Wink
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Gustaf
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« Reply #23 on: March 05, 2004, 06:08:55 pm »
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I know, there's no tie-breaker...now, let's assume that the Dems win back a couple of state delqagtions (unlikely, I know) making it 25-25. THEN what ahppens? Wink
Remember the Jefferson-Burr election? The House of Representatives voted again and again, and after 36 ballots, finally elected Jefferson.

Yeah, I watched that one on CNN... Wink

I didn't know there were numerous votes in the House that time, no. But with today's party structure what would break a tie? Imagine a Rep. giving the presidency to the other party...he would get SO hated.
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Emsworth
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« Reply #24 on: March 05, 2004, 06:09:00 pm »
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DELEGATES
KERRY
American Samoa
Guam
Puerto Rico
Virgin Is.

BUSH
-

STATES
BUSH
Alabama
Alaska
Arizona
Colorado
Connecticut
Delaware
Florida
Georgia
Idaho
Illinois
Indiana
Iowa
Kansas
Kentucky
Louisiana
Michigan
Missouri
Montana
Nebraska
Nevada
New Hampshire
New Mexico
North Carolina
Ohio
Oklahoma
Pennsylvania
South Carolina
Utah
Wyoming

KERRY
Arkansas
California
DC
Hawaii
Maine
Maryland
Massachusetts
New Jersey
New York
North Dakota
Oregon
Rhode Island
Tennessee
Washington
West Virginia

TIE
Minnesota
Mississippi
Texas
Wisconsin

INDEPENDENT
Vermont

UNKNOWN
South Dakota

So a firm win to Bush if it goes to the house Sad

The delegations composed of delegates (see top of quoted passage) do not vote in the House. The District of Columbia, represented by a single delegate, does not have a vote either. Only the fifty states may vote.

PS: My apologies for preempting your post of the list.
« Last Edit: March 05, 2004, 06:10:05 pm by Emsworth »Logged
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