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| | |-+  Elliot Spitzer: A Second Chance
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SirNick
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« on: September 29, 2009, 09:22:40 pm »
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Elliot Spitzer: A Second Chance


           Elliot Spitzer resigned as Governor of New York on March 10th 2008, taking effect seven days later. Spitzer stayed out of public eye for months, and later joined Slate magazine. Slowly, Spitzer began to reemerge on the national spotlight talking about the financial crisis and his remedies for the situation. He was interviewed by Fareed Zakaria in 2009, and many pundits speculated on another political run for Spitzer in 2010.

Polls from September 2009:
Democratic Primary for Governor:

Paterson: 60%
Spitzer: 21%

Democratic Primary for Junior Senator from NY:

Gillibrand: 57%
Spitzer: 29%

     With David Paterson’s job approval rating at an all time low of 23% in January 2010, pundits speculated that Spitzer may challenge Paterson in the primary, however; Cuomo would easily trounce both Spitzer and Paterson if he chose to run for Governor.

January 10th 2010

Spitzer is interviewed by Wolf Blitzer on CNN regarding the Obama Administration’s first year and the handling of the financial crisis. Spitzer talked about that as well what could be expected in the year to come. Spitzer expects unemployment to go down, but not drastically and for the economy to begin expanding, since the most recent quarters GDP slowed slight economic growth.
Wolf Blitzer asks “with current Governor David Paterson’s approval ratings at an all time low, would you consider running for office again?” to which Spitzer replies “If I thought I could do something more than the other candidates for the people of New York, then yes, I would.”
“Will you run then?”
“We’ll see”
 

Democratic Primary Polling for Governor – January 11th 2010
Andrew Cuomo: 55%
Elliot Spitzer: 25%
David Paterson: 15%

David Paterson: 54%
Elliot Spitzer: 30%

Democratic Primary Polling for Junior Senator from New York:

Gillibrand: 50%
Spitzer: 30%
Minor Candidates: 1%


Cuomo: 50%
Gillibrand: 38%
Minor Candidates: 1%


January 15th 2010


Andrew Cuomo announces he will challenge Kirsten Gillibrand for Democratic Nomination for the Junior United States Senator seat from New York against the wishes of the Obama Administration who had asked other candidates like Carolyn Maloney, Carolyn McCarthy and Steve Israel.
Most pundits think it will be to avoid any racial tension as with what happened when he challenged Carl McCall for the Democratic Nod for Governor, who was the first African-American Comptroller of New York.


January 20th 2010


Former Governor George Pataki announces he will run for the Republican Primary for Senator of New York, but is overshadowed by Elliot Spitzer’s announcement that he will run for Governor against David Paterson –saying that he has become weak since assuming governorship. Spitzer bashes Paterson for not being able to handle the leadership catastrophe in the New York State Senate and for not enacting better property tax reforms recommended by the Suozzi Commission.

He touches upon the prostitution scandal by saying that he is human, he has learned from it, and he believes in redemption.

Spitzer was introduced by his wife who praised him for changing his way of life, and saving their marriage by going through counseling. She says that Spitzer “is a great man, and sincerely wants to help the people of New York” and wholeheartedly endorses him.
Spitzer announces he will begin campaigning immediately listening to New Yorkers and trying to regain their trust. He announces he will publish weekly editorials in major newspapers in New York.
 
   The Paterson responds by calling Spitzer a hypocrite that he picked Paterson for Lt. Governor because he was “strong” and now is calling the very person he selected weak. The Paterson campaign emphasizes that Paterson has made hard decisions that may not have been popular but were necessary.
 

February 1st 2010

Democratic Primary Polling for Governor

David Paterson: 57%
Elliot Spitzer: 35%
Undecided: 5%

Democratic Primary Polling for Junior Senator from New York:

Cuomo: 55%
Gillibrand: 35%
Minor Candidates: 1%

 (I’m not a pollster, so the language isn’t perfect)

Do you think Elliot Spitzer deserves a second chance at being Governor?
Yes:  40%
No: 53%
Unsure: 7%

Do you think Elliot Spitzer is being truthful about regretting his actions?

Yes: 29%
No: 40%
Unsure: 31%



February 10th 2010
During an interview on the Today Show, Rudy Giuliani is questioned on whether or not he will run for Governor.


Most Recent Head-to-head Polls for Governor:[/b]

Giuliani: 54%
Paterson: 28%
Undecided: 17%

Giuliani: 50%
Spitzer: 25%
Undecided: 25%


--------------

If you guys like it, I'll continue, and yes, it will end up with a Presidential map, but maybe not what you think.
« Last Edit: September 29, 2009, 09:27:07 pm by sirnick »Logged
Psychic Octopus
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« Reply #1 on: September 29, 2009, 09:29:45 pm »
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I love it, but quite impossible. Smiley
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SirNick
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« Reply #2 on: September 30, 2009, 10:56:55 am »
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February 10th 2010
During an interview on the Today Show, Rudy Giuliani is questioned on whether or not he will run for Governor.
 

Giuliani says although he is staunchly opposed to the re-election of Elliot Spitzer and less so, David Paterson, he will not be running for Governor. Giuliani speaks of how he would trounce both of them in the general election, but doesn’t have the desire to return to public office after his failed 2008 Presidential Campaign.

Giuliani refuses to endorse John Faso, the only other Republican running for Governor at this time.

February 12th 2010

Congressman Peter King announces his bid for the Republican Nomination for Governor of New York. He calls Spitzer unfaithful, dishonest and criticizes him for using state funds to pay for a hotel where his prostitute came to.
The Spitzer campaign responds and issues this in their response “As Governor, Elliot Spitzer did not misuse any state funds, and no criminal charges have ever been brought up against him.”
 

June 15th 2010
The past four months have been heavy, heavy campaigning by Elliot Spitzer

Democratic Primary Polling for Governor

Elliot Spitzer: 43%
David Paterson: 49%
Undecided: 8%

Democratic Primary Polling for Junior Senator from New York:

Cuomo: 58%
Gillibrand: 40%
Minor Candidates: 1%

Republican Primary Polling for Governor

John Faso: 40%

Peter King: 27%
Undecided: 33%

Pataki is unopposed for the Republican nod for Junior Senator

Head-To-Head Matchups

Governor of New York

Paterson: 42%
Faso: 43%

Paterson: 40%
King: 35%

Spitzer: 37%
Faso: 45%

Spitzer:  35%
King: 39%

Junior Senator From New York:

Cuomo: 55%

Pataki: 45%

Gillibrand: 47%
Pataki: 53%


June 30th 2010

Peter King is caught on the record saying Elliot Spitzer is a "low life" He also said "I think we're too politically correct and no one wants to stand up and say we don't need Elliot Spitzer". On video Peter King also says "This guy is a pervert",
The Spitzer camp immediately swings into action and calls King uncompassionate and trying to get away from the issues and successfully spins the story into a negative one for King.

July 15th 2010

Elliot Spitzer has successfully restored part of his image. Paterson’s approval ratings are in the teens. Spitzer is lacking in endorsements, many would-be endorsers do not want to ruin their own reputation and do not endorse anyone.

Peter King continues to run on the fact that John Faso has lost to Spitzer already, in 2006.
 
Nassau County Executive Tom Suozzi, who ran against Spitzer for Governor in 2006, announces a bid for Lieutenant Governor. In a joint statement, Spitzer and Paterson both endorse him.
 

Nassau County Executive Tom Suozzi announcing his run in Albany.


September 7th 2010
Primary Results:

Democratic Nominee for Governor:
Elliot Spitzer: 51%
David Paterson: 49%

Democratic Nominee for Junior Senator:


Cuomo: 63%

Gillibrand: 37%

Republican Nominee for Governor:

John Faso: 59%
Peter King: 41%

Post Primary Polling

Head-to-Head Matchups


Governor:

Elliot Spitzer (Dem): 40%
John Faso (Rep):  44%
Senate:

Andrew Cuomo (Dem): 53%

George Pataki (Rep): 45%

The Gubernatorial campaign is now a close repeat of 2006. John Faso was the Republican candidate then.

September 30th 2009:

    In the first debate between gubernatorial candidates, Elliot Spitzer cites his experience as Attorney General, Governor and even writing for Slate about the economic crisis, and questions what Faso has been doing with his time out of office. Spitzer is seen as the winner of the debate.

October 15th 2009:
   With polling numbers still close, Spitzer, along with Senator Chuck Schumer, tells New Yorkers to vote the incumbents in the State Senate out after the last leadership crisis, saying that they have lost the mandate of the electorate.
   That night during the debate, Faso goes on the attack about the prostitution ring Spitzer was involved in. Spitzer says he feels remorse for what has happened, but talking about prostitutes won’t fix New Yorker’s problems.



Election Day:

Elliot Spitzer: 53%
John Faso: 47%

Nassau County Executive Tom Suozzi wins his bid for Lieutenant Governor.


 
Spitzer on the night of his “re”-election


For the Senior United States Senator from New York:

Chuck Schumer: 75%
No Name Republican: 18%
Minor Candidates: 7%

For the Junior United States Senator from New York:

Andrew Cuomo: 52%
George Pataki: 48%

National Results:


Obama Approval Ratings on Election Night 2010: 45%

In the United States Senate:


Democrats: 60
Republicans: 40

No change in the composition of the US Senate.

In the United States House of Representatives:


Democrats: 246 (-11)
Republicans: 189 (+11)

Notable wins:
Charlie Crist wins a seat as United States Senator in Florida
Kay Bailey Hutchison wins the Gubernatorial Election in Texas.

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SirNick
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« Reply #3 on: September 30, 2009, 04:21:43 pm »
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January 2011

New York:
Elliot Spitzer is inaugurated as Governor; he begins a complete overhaul of Albany from the rules of the State Senate & Assembly to a complete revamping of the budget. Radical property tax reforms are starting to be pursued by the Spitzer Administration.


National:
Former Governor Mitt Romney of Massachusetts announces his bid for President of the United States in 2012.
Former Governor  Mike Huckabee of Arkansas announces his bid for President of the United States in 2012.
 

Former Governor Gary E. Johnson of New Mexico announces his bid for President of the United States in 2012.

Huckabee and Romney are tied in the polls each with a quarter of support. Most people are undecided.

Obama Approval Rating: 43%
Unemployment: 10.1%

March 2011

New York:
Spitzer starts campaigning to legalize gay marriage. His approval ratings are at 57% having reworked existing regulations on Wall Street, and showing progress on property tax reform.

National:
Governor Haley Barbour of Mississippi announces that he will run for President in 2012.

Former Governor Mitch Daniels of Indiana announces that he will run for President in 2012.

Former Senator Fred Thompson of Tennessee (now Virginia) announces that he will run for President in 2012.

Obama Approval: 40%
Unemployment: 10.1%

June 2011

New York:
Gay marriage is legalized in New York with the help of Joe Bruno, the former Republican State Senate Majority Leader.  Spitzer’s approval rating is at 60%
Spitzer begins an initiative to help lower unemployment among black males, whose unemployment rate is higher than any other demographic.

National:

Republican Primary Polling:

Romney: 20%
•   Endorsed by Bobby Jindal
Huckabee: 18%
Johnson: 16%
Thompson: 15%
Barbour:  10%
Daniels: 5%

Obama faces no major opposition for renomination.

September 2011

Spitzer’s first political scandal breaks out, a member of his staff is arrested on corruption charges, and Spitzer fires the staff member. Even though the media downplays Spitzer’s role in the event, his approval rating takes a hit and drops from 63% to 50%

National:

Unemployment: 9.5%

The Obama Administration rejoices that unemployment is going down, and give the stimulus credit for it, while the Republicans say the stimulus was useless, and it’s just the business-cycle returning to normal after a two year recession.
Mitt Romney still leads in the polls. Mitch Daniels is running an insurgent campaign, saying that it takes new and fresh ideas to bring down Obama, not the losing candidates from the last election cycle.

 Republican Primary Polling:


Romney: 25%
Daniels: 18%
Huckabee: 18%
Johnson: 15%
Thompson: 13%
Barbour: 8%

December 2011

Elliot Spitzer’s approval rating skyrockets after the unraveling of a terrorist plot in NYC. Spitzer thanks the FBI who in collaboration with the NYPD busted the plot.

Republican Primary Polling:


Romney: 23%
Daniels: 22%
•   Sarah Palin endorses Daniels
Huckabee: 19%
Johnson: 12%
Thompson: 10%
Barbour: 5%
January 2012
The First Republican Primaries:

Iowa Caucus:


Mitch Daniels: 27.32%
Mitt Romney: 26.91%
Mike Huckabee: 22.02%
Gary Johnson: 11.83%
Fred Thompson: 8.93%
Haley Barbour: 2.99%
 
Haley Barbour dropped out after a poor showing in Iowa.

New Hampshire Primary:
 


Mitt Romney: 35.21%
Mike Huckabee: 27.87%
Fred Thompson:  15.56%
Mitch Daniels: 13.11%
Gary Johnson: 8.25%

A poor finish for Daniels, but a great save for Romney.

National Polls after New Hampshire:

Mitt Romney: 28%
Mitch Daniels: 25%
Mike Huckabee: 23%
Fred Thompson:  11%
Gary Johnson: 10%


January 15th 2012
Haley Barbour in a surprise move endorses Gary Johnson saying that he is fiscally responsible.
South Carolina Primary:

 
Mike Huckabee: 27.33%
Mitt Romney: 25.88%
Gary Johnson: 20.40%
Mitch Daniels: 15.00%
Fred Thompson: 11.39%


January 20th 2012
George W. Bush makes a joint appearance with his father, and endorses Mitt Romney.
Struggling to gain any momentum once again, Fred Thompson drops out of the race and endorses Mitt Romney.
End Results of the Primaries:
Green = Huckabee
Maroon = Romney
Pink = Daniels
Blue = Johnson

Mitt Romney: 1034 delegates
Mike Huckabee: 599 delegates
Mitch Daniels: 576 delegates
Gary Johnson: 241 delegates
Uncommitted:382 delegates

To avoid a brokered convention, Mitch Daniels and Mike Huckabee both drop out after the last primary and endorse Mitt Romney, making Romney the presumptive nominee.



 

« Last Edit: September 30, 2009, 05:04:16 pm by sirnick »Logged
SirNick
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« Reply #4 on: October 01, 2009, 09:05:46 pm »
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Summer 2012:
Joe Biden announces that he will retire from political office due to some health conditions and that President Barack Obama will announce a new Vice President shortly.


Mitt Romney selects Governor Kay Bailey Hutchinson as his Vice Presidential running mate.


[/b]

New York:

Spitzer’s approval ratings remain steady, although he is not invited to any campaign stops in New York with President Barack Obama due to the poor national opinion of Elliot Spitzer.

Obama Approval Rating: 50%

Obama’s approval has gone up due to economic recovery and unemployment going down to 9%.

August 2012:
Barack Obama announces that Evan Bayh will be his Vice Presidential nominee for 2012.


Democratic National Convention:
Elliot Spitzer snags a primetime spot for a speech and tells a story, which is a metaphor for his life and about America (the fall of America being the Bush years), about the rise and fall and redemption of a knight. He manages to improve his national image.

                           
Obama Approval: 49%

               Romney/Hutchinson: 48%
               Obama/Bayh: 47%

September 2012

The first debate between Mitt Romney and President Barack Obama take place. Mitt Romney appears to be more on the attack and Barack Obama defending his policies of the last four years. Romney declares that Obama’s message of “change” was merely a change of which party was in power and nothing else and says Obama has failed to live up to campaign promises.
 

Respondents say that Romney won the debate

Obama Approval: 50%

Polling:
Romney/Hutchinson: 49%
Obama/Bayh: 49%

October 2012

Evan Bayh is seen as the winner of the Vice Presidential debate, unexpectedly dominating Hutchinson.
 


Barack Obama comes back at the second Presidential Debate with a win after going on the attack about Romney.

The third Presidential debate produces no clear winner.

Obama Approval:52%

Polling:
Romney/Hutchinson: 49%
Obama/Bayh: 51%


November 4th Results:


Note: I used 2010 numbers to calculate the map.

Barack H. Obama/Evan Bayh: 270 Electoral Votes – 49.32% Popular Vote
Mitt Willard Romney/Kay Bailey Hutchinson: 269 Electoral Votes: 49.18% Popular Vote
Minor Candidates: 1.5%

In a very slim margin, Barack Obama wins both the electoral college and the popular vote.
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« Reply #5 on: October 01, 2009, 09:44:55 pm »
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The Republicans manage to win in Ohio and Nevada, but still lose a district in Nebraska?
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SirNick
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« Reply #6 on: October 01, 2009, 11:27:16 pm »
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The Republicans manage to win in Ohio and Nevada, but still lose a district in Nebraska?

My bad, they lost it in my calculations, I just didn't see that it was still on the map.
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SirNick
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« Reply #7 on: October 03, 2009, 07:21:38 pm »
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Other Results from Election Night:


In the United States Senate:

Democrats: 54 (-6)
Republicans: 46 (+6)

No change in the composition of the US Senate.

In the United States House of Representatives:

Democrats: 221 (-25)
Republicans: 214 (+25)



January 20th 2013


Barack Obama is inaugurated for his second term
Approval Rating is at 52%
Unemployment has dropped to 8%


June 2013

New York:

Elliot Spitzer goes to a fundraiser in Iowa, speculation starts about a Presidential run in 2016.
Spitzer denies, and says he has to focus on reelection in 2014.
Spitzer approval ratings at 60%, unemployment in New York down to 6% (2% below the national average).

January 2014


The effects of Spitzer’s reforms for the NY Assembly and Senate take effect today. Spitzer’s approval rating, already high, remains fairly consistent.

Spitzer starts to push for more restrictions on health insurance carriers in New York, and for reform on home owners insurance since more and more New Yorkers (especially on Long Island) are being dropped due to hurricane worries.

Spitzer is asked in an interview if he would pursue the drivers licenses for illegal immigrants program that he pushed in his first term (2007-2008), and he says he will not.

Spitzer also gives a major financial speech in New Hampshire, sparking more speculation that he will run for President in 2016.
Obama Approval: 58% (beginning) 55% (end of month)
Unemployment: 6%
[/b]

National:

Barack Obama proposes deficit cutting reforms in the upcoming budget. Republicans applaud his attempts but say it is too little too late.
At the end of the month, tax-payers find out that they lost over $50 billion of the $700billion TARP bill, that they won’t get back. Obama’s approval ratings drop 2-3 points. They would have dropped more if unemployment was higher, now almost back to normal.


September 2014:

The Republicans choose Congressman Chris Lee, to challenge Elliot Spitzer in 2014


October 2014:

Chris Lee and Elliot Spitzer have one debate, and Spitzer walks away the winner by tying him to several major corporations via campaign donations.

November 2014:
Gubernatorial Election of New York

Elliot Spitzer: 65%

Chris Lee (R.):  32%

Obama Approval: 56%
Unemployment: 5.8%

(NY) Spitzer Approval: 62%
Chris Lee also loses his seat in the House.
In the United States Senate:

Democrats: 55 (+1)

Republicans: 45 (-1)

In the United States House of Representatives:

Democrats: 230 (+9)

Republicans: 208 (-9)

Slight gains in both houses for the Democrats.



Vice President Evan Bayh announces he will seek the Democratic nomination for President in 2016.

Senator and Former Governor Mark Warner announces he will also seek the Democratic nomination for President in 2016


January 2015:


Governor and Former Congressman Mary Fallin announces that she will run for the Republican nomination.


Pennsylvanian Congresswoman Allyson Schwartz announces that she will run for the Democratic nomination for President.

[/b]

Republican Governor Kay Bailey Hutchinson announces that she will seek the Republican nomination for President. She will be 74 at the time of her inauguration if she were to win.

Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee both confirm that they will NOT seek the Republican nomination.

New York:

Elliot Spitzer travels again to Iowa, but refuses to answer if he’s running. Spitzer also appears on several news programs pushing the President’s agenda.

February 2015:

Governor Bobby Jindal announces that he will seek the Republican nomination for President.

Congresswoman Marsha Blackburn announces she will seek the Republican nomination for President.


March 2015:

Congressman Eric Cantor announces he will seek the Republican nomination for President.


New York Governor Elliot Spitzer announces that he will seek the Democratic nomination for President.

Due to Spitzer’s past, and political recovery he immediately grabs the national spotlight.

Polls:
Democratic Primary:

Mark Warner: 23%
Evan Bayh: 23%
Elliot Spitzer: 15%
Allyson Schwartz: 5%
Unsure: 31%



Republican Primary:

Bobby Jindal: 18%
Kay Bailey Hutchinson: 15%
Marsha Blackburn: 8%
Eric Cantor: 10%
Mary Fallin: 3%
Unsure: 46%


April:

All the candidates are vigorously campaigning in Iowa and New Hampshire, even though the primaries are 8 months away.

The first debate is for both parties is scheduled for July 1st 2015.

Senator Charlie Crist announces that he will seek the Republican nomination
Former Governor Jeb Bush, who was widely expected to seek the nomination, announces that he will not seek it.

Polling:
Democratic Primary:
Evan Bayh: 25%
Mark Warner: 22%
Elliot Spitzer: 18%
Allyson Schwartz: 10%
Unsure: 25%



Republican Primary:
Charlie Crist: 22%
Bobby Jindal: 17%
Marsha Blackburn: 15%
Kay Bailey Hutchinson: 15%
Eric Cantor: 10%
Mary Fallin: 5%
Unsure: 16%
« Last Edit: October 04, 2009, 03:05:32 pm by sirnick »Logged
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« Reply #8 on: October 03, 2009, 10:36:27 pm »
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The Republicans manage to win in Ohio and Nevada, but still lose a district in Nebraska?

My bad, they lost it in my calculations, I just didn't see that it was still on the map.

Also they win Ohio and lose Indiana?
In what universe?
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17:20   bore   the point of atlasia is to achieve things which you can then use as pick up lines
Хahar
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« Reply #9 on: October 04, 2009, 12:20:10 am »
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The Republicans manage to win in Ohio and Nevada, but still lose a district in Nebraska?

My bad, they lost it in my calculations, I just didn't see that it was still on the map.

Also they win Ohio and lose Indiana?
In what universe?

In the universe where Evan Bayh is on the ticket.
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Update reading list

The idea of parodying the preceding Atlasian's postings is laughable, of course, but not for reasons one might expect.
SirNick
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« Reply #10 on: October 04, 2009, 01:41:52 am »
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The Republicans manage to win in Ohio and Nevada, but still lose a district in Nebraska?

My bad, they lost it in my calculations, I just didn't see that it was still on the map.

Also they win Ohio and lose Indiana?
In what universe?

In the universe where Evan Bayh is on the ticket.

Less people voted in Ohio in 2008 than in 2004, and McCain had about 200k less voters than Bush did in 2004, so I was thinking that more republicans and moderates show up and vote for the Republican ticket. Indiana on the other hand I just thought MAY flip to the Democrats again if it was slim, or if a popular figure was from their state was on the ticket.
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« Reply #11 on: October 04, 2009, 02:08:20 am »
Ignore

The Republicans manage to win in Ohio and Nevada, but still lose a district in Nebraska?

My bad, they lost it in my calculations, I just didn't see that it was still on the map.

Also they win Ohio and lose Indiana?
In what universe?

In the universe where Evan Bayh is on the ticket.

That makes more sense now.
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17:20   bore   the point of atlasia is to achieve things which you can then use as pick up lines
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« Reply #12 on: October 04, 2009, 09:48:18 am »
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Mary Fallin is a Republican

Anyway, good TL
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SirNick
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« Reply #13 on: October 04, 2009, 03:05:57 pm »
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Mary Fallin is a Republican

Anyway, good TL

Fixed. She is going to lose in my timeline regardless Cheesy. Thanks.
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SirNick
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« Reply #14 on: October 05, 2009, 11:44:14 am »
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May 8th 2015

Governor Brian Schweitzer announces a bid for the Democratic nomination for President.


At 11:26pm, terrorists attempt to seize a major skyscraper in Seattle, Washington but are prevented by anti-terrorism forces who were tipped off just hours before the siege. Four terrorists are killed in the process, and two United States servicemen are killed.
President Barack Obama issues a statement that night, and addresses the nation the next night, in his speech he vows that the United States will remain the enemy of terrorists everywhere, and the two servicemen who died, died ensuring our freedom. He attends the funerals of the two servicemen the following week.

Later In May 2015

Governor Elliot Spitzer announces extra security precautions in New York City as a result and hosts a fundraiser, whose proceeds will go to help the two families and a charity.

Obama Approval Rating: 60%


July 2015:

Former Senator John McCain (retired) endorses Charlie Crist
Pre-Debate Polling:

Republican Primary:


Charlie Crist: 26%
Bobby Jindal: 20%
Marsha Blackburn: 20%
Eric Cantor: 16%
Kay Bailey Hutchinson: 12%
Mary Fallin: 5%
Unsure: 1%

Democratic Primary:


Mark Warner: 26%
Evan Bayh: 23%
Elliot Spitzer: 20%
Allyson Schwartz: 17%
Brian Schweitzer: 8%
Unsure: 6%

Debate:
Marsha Blackburn surprises the audience as she comes out swinging, citing various reasons why Charlie Crist isn’t a conservative, mainly because he supported the stimulus package.

Bobby Jindal’s performance is okay, he doesn’t stand out like many pundits said he needed to.

Mary Fallin doesn’t get much of the spotlight and when she does, she stumbles over her answers.

Charlie Crist responds to criticism well, saying that any political party needs to compromise, trying to appeal to moderates which is usually only seen in the general election.

Kay Bailey Hutchinson scores high but many people are still worried that she will be too old when inaugurated.

Eric Cantor’s performance is right behind Blackburn’s but comes off as arrogant.

38% of Republicans say Blackburn won the debate.

After the Republican Debate the Democrats take the stage.

Many were looking forward to seeing Schwartz’s performance in the debate, and she was seen as very timid during the debate. She answered questions well when asked, but did not stand out otherwise.

The Democrats primarily bicker over topics such as social security and energy independence. National security comes up, and Elliot Spitzer dominates the National Security discussion and questions Evan Bayh’s national security experience even as Vice President.

Mark Warner, although he didn’t make any major mistakes, did not seem to be able to regain the spotlight as easily as Bayh or Spitzer.

Brian Schweitzer’s performance was average.

30% of Democrats thought Spitzer was the winner.

August 2015: Polling

Republican Primary:

Charlie Crist: 23%
Marsha Blackburn: 23%

Eric Cantor: 16%
Kay Bailey Hutchinson: 12%
Bobby Jindal: 11%
Mary Fallin: 2%
Unsure: 13%

Democratic Primary:

Elliot Spitzer: 27%
Evan Bayh: 25%
Mark Warner: 18%
Allyson Schwartz: 17%
Brian Schweitzer: 10%
Unsure: 3%

October 2015:

Mitt Romney endorses Charlie Crist.
Sarah Palin endorses Marsha Blackburn
Former President Jimmy Carter endorses Mark Warner

December 2015:

Former President George Bush endorses Charlie Crist

Mike Huckabee endorses Marsha Blackburn

President Barack Obama flies to Iowa to campaign for Vice President Evan Bayh

Another big debate for both political parties takes place.

Republicans:

Bobby Jindal performs spectacularly better than he does in his other debates and competes at the same level as Crist and Blackburn for the first time. Hutchinson doesn’t grab the spotlight and Cantor comes off as angry and hot-headed. Fallin doesn’t spark and interest.
Bobby Jindal walks away the winner with 35% of Republicans behind him.

 Crist gets 32%, Blackburn, 23%

Democrats:

Vice President Evan Bayh and Senator Mark Warner go 2 on 1 with Elliot Spitzer and criticize him for having major character flaws. Spitzer responds by reiterating what he has done to make up or redeem him for any character flaws, and that any President is only human.
Spitzer’s favorability ratings don’t drop as a result, but he does drop in the polls slightly.
Schwartz, whose support has been falling, tries hard to stand out during the debate but instead accentuates any verbal blunders she has.

Warner walks away the winner with 39%
December 2015 Polling:

Republican Primary:

Bobby Jindal: 23%

Marsha Blackburn: 22%
Charlie Crist: 20%
Kay Bailey Hutchinson: 12%
Eric Cantor: 7%
Mary Fallin: 2%
Unsure: 14%

Democratic Primary:

Evan Bayh: 25%

Elliot Spitzer: 23%
Mark Warner: 22 %
Allyson Schwartz: 13%
Brian Schweitzer: 6%
Unsure: 11%
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« Reply #15 on: October 05, 2009, 10:14:05 pm »
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Iowa Caucus: January 4th 2016

New Hampshire Primary:  January 8th 2016

South Carolina Primary: January 15th 2016

Nevada Primary: January 19th  2016

Michigan & Florida: January 26th 2016

Super Tuesday: February 2nd 2016
•   California
•   Arizona
•   Utah
•   New Mexico (Dem)
•   Idaho (Dem)
•   Colorado
•   Montana (Reps)
•   North Dakota
•   Minnesota
•   Idaho (Dem)
•   Oklahoma
•   Arkansas
•   Missouri
•   Alaska
•   Illinois
•   Alabama
•   Georgia
•   Tennessee
•   West Virginia (Rep)
•   New York
•   Delaware
•   Massachusetts
•   Connecticut

Iowa Caucus Results:

Democrats:

Evan Bayh: 30.03%

Mark Warner: 25.11%
Elliot Spitzer: 24.85%
Allyson Schwartz: 12.99%
Brian Schweitzer: 7.02%



Republicans:


Marsha Blackburn: 33.42%

Bobby Jindal: 27.25%
Charlie Crist: 20.07%
Kay Bailey Hutchinson: 12.63%
Eric Cantor: 5.29%
Mary Fallin: 1.34%


As a result of the primary, Evan Bayh stays in the lead, but Mark Warner overtakes Elliot Spitzer in national polls.

On the other side of the aisle, Blackburn overtakes Jindal  and Crist in national polls, and even though Jindal had a strong 2nd place finish, he narrowly falls behind in the polls to Crist.

Mary Fallin and Eric Cantor drop out of the race.

Rumor has it that if Governor Brian Schweitzer doesn’t finish in at least third in the New Hampshire primary, he will drop out.

 The candidates fly to New Hampshire for another primary only a few days ahead.

New Hampshire Primary Results:

Democrats:

Elliot Spitzer: 38.22%

Mark Warner: 27.82%
Evan Bayh: 20.03%
Allyson Schwartz: 10.93%
Brian Schweitzer: 3.00%

Republicans:

Charlie Crist: 35.92%

Marsha Blackburn: 31.49%
Kay Bailey Hutchinson: 17.11%
Bobby Jindal: 15.48%

January 9th 2016

Brian Schweitzer drops out of the race for President and endorses Mark Warner.
Bobby Jindal’s campaign manager resigns. The media begins to question if Jindal will drop out.

Post-Primary Polls

Spitzer National Favorability Ratings:
Area – Favorable/Unfavorable/Unsure(or never heard of)
Northeast – 55/20/25
South – 20/50/30
Central:  40/39/21
West – 48/35/17

Democrats:

Evan Bayh: 33%

Elliot Spitzer: 28%
Mark Warner: 27%
Allyson Schwartz: 7%
Unsure: 5%

Republicans:

Marsha Blackburn: 27%

Charlie Crist: 25%
Bobby Jindal: 18%
Kay Bailey Hutchinson: 9%
Unsure: 21%

As of January 9th, current polls show Crist with a large lead in South Carolina where his campaign has focused a lot of resources. Jindal begins campaigning in Nevada and Michigan.
There is also a quiet race for second place in Florida, all the candidates knowing that Crist will win Florida.

Elliot Spitzer pursues a similar strategy and skips South Carolina and campaigns in Michigan and Florida instead. Evan Bayh and Mark Warner stump in South Carolina –Warner hoping for his first win and Bayh hoping to stop Spitzer’s momentum from New Hampshire.

South Carolina Primary Results:

Democrats:

Mark Warner: 40.23%

Evan Bayh: 31.32%
Allyson Schwartz: 15.01%
Elliot Spitzer: 13.44%

A horrible showing for Spitzer in South Carolina, being beat by Schwartz.

Republicans:

Charlie Crist: 39.17%

Marsha Blackburn: 38.96%
Bobby Jindal: 11.91%
Kay Bailey Hutchinson: 9.96%

Betwixt Primaries:

Kay Bailey Hutchinson drops out of the race. Hutchinson endorses Charlie Crist.
Allyson Schwartz, due to a lack of fundraising ability, drops out of the race. Schwartz endorses Elliot Spitzer which is a surprise to many pundits since she beat him in South Carolina.

Bobby Jindal’s senior campaign advisors resign.
Nevada Primary: January 19th  2016

Results:

Democrats:

Elliot Spitzer: 35.21%

Mark Warner: 32.98%
Evan Bayh: 31.81%

A very narrow win for Spitzer.

Republicans:

Charlie Crist: 53.92%

Marsha Blackburn: 40.55%
Bobby Jindal: 5.53%

January 20th 2016

Bobby Jindal drops out of the race and endorses Charlie Crist

Michigan & Florida: January 26th 2016

Michigan Republicans:

Charlie Crist: 54%

Marsha Blackburn: 46%

Michigan Democrats:

Elliot Spitzer: 40.51%

Evan Bayh: 40.50%
Mark Warner: 18.99%

Florida Republicans:

Charlie Crist: 68 %

Marsha Blackburn: 32%

Florida Democrats:

Elliot Spitzer: 36.72%

Mark Warner: 32.91%
Evan Bayh: 30.37%




Republicans:
Marsha Blackburn - Pink
Charlie Crist - Dark Blue



Democrats:
Light Blue: Elliot Spitzer
Green: Mark Warner
Pink: Evan Bayh


National Polling For President – January 30th 2016

Democratic Nomination:

Elliot Spitzer: 34%

Evan Bayh:  30%
Mark Warner: 30%
Unsure: 6%

Republican Nomination:

Charlie Crist: 45%

Marsha Blackburn: 39%
Unsure: 16%
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« Reply #16 on: October 06, 2009, 03:40:54 pm »
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Really do love this timeline. Looks like it's gonna be the gay Senator vs. the horny Gov
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« Reply #17 on: October 06, 2009, 04:22:44 pm »
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Really do love this timeline. Looks like it's gonna be the gay Senator vs. the horny Gov

I hope you really do like it and that wasn't just sarcasm haha.

But I don't think Charlie Crist is gay, although its definitely been speculated. Hasn't he been seen with a girlfriend?
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« Reply #18 on: October 06, 2009, 04:48:12 pm »
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Really do love this timeline. Looks like it's gonna be the gay Senator vs. the horny Gov

I hope you really do like it and that wasn't just sarcasm haha.

But I don't think Charlie Crist is gay, although its definitely been speculated. Hasn't he been seen with a girlfriend?

Larry Craig was married
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« Reply #19 on: October 06, 2009, 04:49:33 pm »
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Really do love this timeline. Looks like it's gonna be the gay Senator vs. the horny Gov

I hope you really do like it and that wasn't just sarcasm haha.

But I don't think Charlie Crist is gay, although its definitely been speculated. Hasn't he been seen with a girlfriend?


Larry Craig was married

Touche.
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« Reply #20 on: October 06, 2009, 05:31:39 pm »
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February 1st 2016


New York Times: A senior campaign aide for Senator Mark Warner said that Warner will consider dropping out if it helps knock Elliot Spitzer, if Warner does poorly on Super Tuesday.
Warner’s spokesman responds saying the aide is wrong and Mark Warner is in it to win it.

February 2nd 2016 – Super Tuesday

Elliot Spitzer campaigns in Illinois on the morning of Super Tuesday and flies back to New York for another campaign event by the late afternoon.

Evan Bayh is campaigning in Colorado, where the polls are close between Warner, Spitzer and Bayh.

Mark Warner campaigns in Georgia.

Charlie Crist, who many pundits are saying will win the nomination, campaigns in Marsha Blackburn’s home state of Tennessee. Blackburn Is also in Tennessee campaigning.

Results:

Super Tuesday Republicans


Dark Blue: Charlie Crist
Pink: Marsha Blackburn

Super Tuesday Dem
[/b]



Green: Mark Warner
Pink: Evan Bayh
Blue: Elliot Spitzer

Republican Analysis:


Charlie Crist dominates the night and wins all the “big prizes” of the night such as New York, Illinois and California. Blackburn manages to win a few southern and western states. All pundits expect Blackburn to drop out sometime in the next few days.

Democratic Analysis:

Pundits say that if Mark Warner drops out and endorses Bayh, then Bayh still has a chance at the nomination, but right now Warner is hurting Bayh. Warner came in second place in every state Bayh won except for Illinois.

February 5th 2016

Marsha Blackburn drops out of the Presidential race and endorses Charlie Crist.


Crist becomes the presumptive nominee for the Republicans.

Post Super Tuesday Polls:
Democratic Nomination:

Elliot Spitzer: 40%

Evan Bayh: 36%
Mark Warner: 20%
Unsure: 4%

Head To Head Matchups:

Crist: 50%
Spitzer: 40%

Crist: 47%
Bayh: 43%

Crist: 49%
Warner: 42%
Tuesday February 9th:[/b]

Louisiana, Nebraska & Washington State Primaries

Louisiana Results:

Mark Warner: 43%
Evan Bayh:  38%
Elliot Spitzer: 20%

Nebraska Results:

Evan Bayh: 40%
Mark Warner: 35%
Elliot Spitzer: 25%

Washington State Results:

Elliot Spitzer: 42%
Evan Bayh: 39%
Mark Warner: 19%

Analysis:
Pundits still say that Warner isn’t going to win, and he’s only hurting Bayh’s chances. Right now it looks like if Warner says in it, then its going to be a brokered convention.
Other February Primary Results:

Maine: Spitzer
DC: Spitzer
Hawaii: Spitzer
Wisconsin: Bayh
Maryland: Spitzer
Virginia: Warner

March 3rd 2016

One day before the Texas, Ohio, Rhode Island and Vermont primaries the candidates are locked in dead head in Texas and all three participate in the Texas Primary Debate.

   Mark Warner and Evan Bayh go negative during the debate and hint at Spitzer’s past and his resignation as Governor in 2008. Spitzer responds harshly and bluntly with “I apologized to the people of New York, and the people of the United States for my actions in the past. I have learned from them, and the people of New York have forgiven me by electing me two more times. I’ve turned around New York from financial devastation –and clearly, you have no issue with my policies, because you’re resorting to dirty strategies that the Republicans won’t even use in their campaign.” To which he received a huge applause.

   Also during the debate, Spitzer details a very liberal agenda for illegal immigrants, trying to pander to the Hispanic vote. Bayh and Warner reject Spitzer’s plan citing their own.



Exit Poll Question for Mark Warner Supporters in Texas:
Who was your second choice for the Democratic nominee?
Even Bayh: 69%
Elliot Spitzer: 20%
Unsure: 11%
March 4th Results:

Texas Primary:


Elliot Spitzer: 39.9%
Evan Bayh: 35.2%
Mark Warner: 24.9%

Ohio Primary:

Evan Bayh: 42%

Elliot Spitzer: 41.98%
Mark Warner: 16.02%

Elliot Spitzer also wins Rhode Island and Vermont by large margins.

March 5th 2016:

Mark Warner drops out of the Presidential race.


Warner is asked by a reporter if he will endorse anyone, and he says not yet.

Democratic Nomination Analysis:

   Spitzer is likely to win Oregon, Pennsylvania, Puerto Rico in the following months. His campaign has put a lot of money into North Carolina which is a tossup along with South Dakota (for some bizarre reason). Indiana, Montana, Kentucky, West Virginia, Mississippi and Wyoming are all likely to go to Bayh. Even if Bayh wins the tossups, pundits say that Spitzer is still going to have the nomination unless an extreme amount of super delegates go over to Bayh.
Democratic Nomination National Poll:

Evan Bayh: 50%

Elliot Spitzer: 45%
Unsure: 5%

Pundits dismiss the national polls because the majority of the country has already voted.

March 10th 2016:
New York Times reports that Evan Bayh and Elliot Spitzer meet secretly on March 6th to discuss the Democratic nomination. An aide says Evan Bayh approached Elliot Spitzer to discuss “matters important to both campaigns” and the conversation was “unpleasant” but Bayh “came out of the conversation with the answers he wanted.”

Spitzer aides confirm the meeting and refuse to comment on the topic discussed or the tone of the conversation.

Bayh aides refuse to comment.


Will Evan Bayh drop out and pave the way for Spitzer; or will he stay in and try to take a super-majority of super-delegates to seal the nomination?
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« Reply #21 on: October 06, 2009, 06:28:11 pm »
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No, I honestly do like it. I was joking earlier about the gay Senator and the horny Gov. But Crist recently tied the knot with NYC socialite Carole Rome and she is quite able to stuff his coffers.
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« Reply #22 on: October 06, 2009, 10:08:57 pm »
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I’m going to try to calculate the number of delegates each has at this point and my math will be very flimsy so please just tolerate it haha…I'm using 2008 numbers since it is impossible to know what they'll be in 2016.


Spitzer Delegate: 1413 Delegates (33.2% of primary delegates)
Bayh Delegates: 1086 Delegates (25.6%)
Former Warner Delegates: 980 Delegates (23.2%)
Former Schwartz Delegates (she got some in South Carolina!): 9 (0.2%)
Remaining: 741 (17.5%)
Total Super Delegates: 873

Brief Analysis:
Since Schwartz endorsed Spitzer, her delegates will presumably go to Spitzer.
Spitzer would have to win 702 of the remaining delegates in order to get a majority of elected delegates, which is impossible with Bayh in the race.

Bayh, wouldn’t be able to claim a majority of delegates from the primaries regardless and would have to rely on super delegates…

Including Super Delegates, candidates would need 2,551 to have a majority. There are 873 super delegates and 741 remaining. Spitzer needs 1,138 delegates to have a majority…71% of the total remaining delegates.

Bayh would need 1,465 more delegates to have a majority which is 91% of the remaining delegates.

However, if Mark Warner’s delegates split favorably to Bayh, then Bayh could easily steal the nomination from Spitzer. This would give the Republicans a huge advantage, having already chosen their candidate. The Republicans will be able to gain a lot of ground in the months up until the Democratic convention.

Is the Democratic nod worth getting off to a very very late and rough start for Evan Bayh?
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« Reply #23 on: October 06, 2009, 10:18:23 pm »
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So either this goes to the Convention or Bayh drops out? Could we please get some VP possibilities for Crist?
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« Reply #24 on: October 06, 2009, 10:55:33 pm »
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So either this goes to the Convention or Bayh drops out? Could we please get some VP possibilities for Crist?

Yes, and next update you might get a few Wink
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