SUSA: McDonnell leads by 14 in alternate universe Virginia

[JohnnyLongtorso]

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=9db323a1-0c9c-4a39-887c-c504bc80fb06

McDonnell (R) - 55
Deeds (D) - 41

Bolling (R) - 54
Wagner (D) - 41

Cuccinelli (R) - 53
Shannon (D) - 42

I'll give them this, they're consistent. Every other poll in the last month has shown a single-digit race, but Survey USA is sticking with their guns. These likely voters went 51-44 McCain and 24% of black voters are going for McDonnell. Uh huh.

[JerryBrown2010]

[Tender Branson]

Hmm. So we have a D+8 poll and a R+5 poll from 2 really good VA pollsters.

The 2008 Exit Poll with good DEM turnout was D+6.

I´m currently more believing the SUSA result, allthough there's a really small chance that more than 20% of Blacks will vote for McDonnell.

But Deeds is down right now, probably by about 5-10%, probably higher single digits.

[Dan the Roman]

Hmm. So we have a D+8 poll and a R+5 poll from 2 really good VA pollsters.

The 2008 Exit Poll with good DEM turnout was D+6.



I´m currently more believing the SUSA result, allthough there's a really small chance that more than 20% of Blacks will vote for McDonnell.

But Deeds is down right now, probably by about 5-10%, probably higher single digits.

What was D+8? PPP has an electorate that was 48-45 Obama, that is below his Margin of victory. What we really have is R+2 poll and a R+5.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Party ID isn't really that salient in Virginia since there's no registration by party here; it's all based on what people feel at the moment. You can shift the party ID around and it may change the percentages a bit, but in the end it's still a single-digit race.