Bush +4 says Zogby

[kelpie]

Here's the link:

Bush Opens Four Point Lead on Kerry

I wouldn't pay too much attention to this because Zogby is a GOP lapdog!

Ahem.

[patrick1]

Here's the link:

Bush Opens Four Point Lead on Kerry

I wouldn't pay too much attention to this because Zogby is a GOP lapdog!

Ahem.

Zogby is schizo.  Kerry will be up 6 next time. LoL

[MODU]

Here's the link:

Bush Opens Four Point Lead on Kerry

I wouldn't pay too much attention to this because Zogby is a GOP lapdog!

Ahem.

Zogby is schizo.  Kerry will be up 6 next time. LoL

hahaha . . . just in time for the last push into the election day.

[Giant Saguaro]

So it's Bush +4 now. Well, we can expect Rasmussen, then, to show it tied or at least going in the other direction I guess.

With Zogby, expect the unexpected.

[handler]

A poll doesn't move like this overnight.  The sample blew up as samples do one out of every twenty times.

Read the Washington Post.  Two Kerry aides who spoke off the record have revealed that Kerry is up FIVE POINTS in Ohio and that Bush is fading there.  FIVE POINTS!  In decisive Ohio.

Has anyone heard anyone in the Bush campaign dispute those OHIO numbers??  Anyone?  Don't you think if that wasn't true the Bushies would be RUNNING TO THE PRESS trying to head off that piece of devistating news!  Silence from the Bush campaign.  That says it all folks.

THE FACT THAT YOU HEAR NOTHING CONTRADICTING THAT REPORT FROM THE REPUBLICANS SAYS VOLUMES!   Forget the week old Strategic Vision polls.  Internal polls of the campaigns tell the tale.

[Giant Saguaro]

A poll doesn't move like this overnight.  The sample blew up as samples do one out of every twenty times.

Read the Washington Post.  Two Kerry aides who spoke off the record have revealed that Kerry is up FIVE POINTS in Ohio and that Bush is fading there.  FIVE POINTS!  In decisive Ohio.

Has anyone heard anyone in the Bush campaign dispute those OHIO numbers??  Anyone?  Don't you think if that wasn't true the Bushies would be RUNNING TO THE PRESS trying to head off that piece of devistating news!  Silence from the Bush campaign.  That says it all folks.

THE FACT THAT YOU HEAR NOTHING CONTRADICTING THAT REPORT FROM THE REPUBLICANS SAYS VOLUMES!   Forget the week old Strategic Vision polls.  Internal polls of the campaigns tell the tale.

Hahahahaha!

Okay, folks, they're out in full force this morning, whew.

Later. Got a busy morning.

[patrick1]

A poll doesn't move like this overnight.  The sample blew up as samples do one out of every twenty times.

Read the Washington Post.  Two Kerry aides who spoke off the record have revealed that Kerry is up FIVE POINTS in Ohio and that Bush is fading there.  FIVE POINTS!  In decisive Ohio.

Has anyone heard anyone in the Bush campaign dispute those OHIO numbers??  Anyone?  Don't you think if that wasn't true the Bushies would be RUNNING TO THE PRESS trying to head off that piece of devistating news!  Silence from the Bush campaign.  That says it all folks.

THE FACT THAT YOU HEAR NOTHING CONTRADICTING THAT REPORT FROM THE REPUBLICANS SAYS VOLUMES!   Forget the week old Strategic Vision polls.  Internal polls of the campaigns tell the tale.

Want a free trip to Guyana.  I've got some really good fruit juice.  If anyone thinks Ohio is +5 and gaining they are deluding themselves.  INTERNAL POLLING IS RELEASED FOR PROPAGANDA.  Ohio is +2 or -2 in either direction.

[AuH2O]

A poll doesn't move like this overnight.  The sample blew up as samples do one out of every twenty times.

Read the Washington Post.  Two Kerry aides who spoke off the record have revealed that Kerry is up FIVE POINTS in Ohio and that Bush is fading there.  FIVE POINTS!  In decisive Ohio.

Has anyone heard anyone in the Bush campaign dispute those OHIO numbers??  Anyone?  Don't you think if that wasn't true the Bushies would be RUNNING TO THE PRESS trying to head off that piece of devistating news!  Silence from the Bush campaign.  That says it all folks.

THE FACT THAT YOU HEAR NOTHING CONTRADICTING THAT REPORT FROM THE REPUBLICANS SAYS VOLUMES!   Forget the week old Strategic Vision polls.  Internal polls of the campaigns tell the tale.

Is this loser "mypalfish" too? Vorlon should do a little IP check.

So either another troll, or the same troll...

[kelpie]

A poll doesn't move like this overnight.  The sample blew up as samples do one out of every twenty times.

Read the Washington Post.  Two Kerry aides who spoke off the record have revealed that Kerry is up FIVE POINTS in Ohio and that Bush is fading there.  FIVE POINTS!  In decisive Ohio.

Has anyone heard anyone in the Bush campaign dispute those OHIO numbers??  Anyone?  Don't you think if that wasn't true the Bushies would be RUNNING TO THE PRESS trying to head off that piece of devistating news!  Silence from the Bush campaign.  That says it all folks.

THE FACT THAT YOU HEAR NOTHING CONTRADICTING THAT REPORT FROM THE REPUBLICANS SAYS VOLUMES!   Forget the week old Strategic Vision polls.  Internal polls of the campaigns tell the tale.

Good God!  To be fair, and "devistating" aside, you spell well for a 12 year-old.

[DanimalBr]

So it's Bush +4 now. Well, we can expect Rasmussen, then, to show it tied or at least going in the other direction I guess.

With Zogby, expect the unexpected.

Nope.   Rassmussen just came out with his numbers.  It's Bush 49 Kerry 46.   Which when you take the rounding numbers it's actually Bush 49.0   Kerry 45.5.   That's one tenth of a point away from being rounded the other way for Kerry.   I expected a Bush bump in Rasmussen today cause I knew a good Kerry day was rolling off the three day average.   But I think Vorlon said yesterday that a good Bush day was rolling off in Zogby's poll today.  If that's true, today's Zogby's numbers are really good news for Bush because that good day was replaced by an even better day. 

[Acastus]

I wouldn't worry Shira.  I have no idea why you trust Zogby.  When GOP'ers are dismissing good news from this guy, you should take heart.  We'd like to believe it, but it's Zogby, so, we just think it's a setup for a future Kerry comeback story, lol.

[The Vorlon]

Maybe Zogby forgot to take his lithium this morning.. I don't know

Todays number makes, well, no sense at all.



The october 11th sample was very strong for Bush, On October 10th he was down 3, and suddenly was even - a swing of 3% in one day.

This samle that moved Bush 3% rolled off the average last night and was replaced by a sample that swung things another 3% towards Bush.

<<shakes head, walks way, quietly laughs>>

Zogby is not a poll... It's is a religion or a cult.

You believe... or you do not.

If you try to figure it out, you will go mad.

[The Vorlon]

Yes. I am very worried.
I take Zogby seriously.

Ok..

[Shira]

Yes. I am very worried. I take Zogby seriously. Rasmussen's  poll is close to the Zogby one.

A very bad day.

[Rococo4]

I have to be consistent.......I didnt believe it when he showed Bush down and it was "Kerry's race to lose" and I dont believe it now when he shows Bush up. 

[J. J.]

Yes. I am very worried. I take Zogby seriously. Rasmussen's  poll is close to the Zogby one.

A very bad day.

Shira, don't look at numbers; math is not strong suit.

[Shira]

If on 10/11 and 10/12 the daily gap was 0% then yesterday it was 3% and today it is 6%

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

Looks like voters did what I did: Looked for an acceptable alternative to Bush...found none...came back to Bush.

[The Vorlon]

Yes. I am very worried. I take Zogby seriously. Rasmussen's  poll is close to the Zogby one.

A very bad day.

Shira, if these GOP types actually deep in their hearts believed Zogby was a a good poll, they would be happy now.

GOPers to a person are laughing this result off.

That says something.

If I go to the racing track and ramdomly pick 2 horses in each race, there is a good chance one horse of the over the course of the evening will win the race.

Does this make me a good horse race handicapper...?

Again... look at the numbers...

20 of Zogby's last 45 TELEPHONE polls have missed the margin of error.

That's twenty, as in 2 x 10...

as in One Score..

He misses the margin of error almost half the time !!!!!!

These are his TELEPHONE polls BTW, the less said about his internet polls the better

In 2002 his AVERAGE error was almost 6%.

Yes he got the 2000 Presidential race within 2% (as did 9 other pollsters BTW)

In 1988 I bet $2 on "Lucky Strike" in the 4th at Queens park and won $6.15

Wanna come to the race track with me and bet your money based on my advice?

The man's polls has been a disaster for 4 years.

20 out of 45 outside MOE
20 out of 45 outside MOE
20 out of 45 outside MOE
20 out of 45 outside MOE

[Whacker77]

As soon as I saw the numbers, I laughed.  I wish they were true, but let's get serious.  Unless a couple million people were turned off by the Mary Cheney comment, this won't last.

I've been following Rasmussen's poll since early January, and I think it has done remarkably well.   It has been very consistent, and it's moves have coincided pretty well with the general sense of the public.  Remember, that's just my opinion.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

The Rasmussen poll is back to exactly where is was four-days ago...which leads me to believe it is just "de-blipping".  But the Zogby poll does worry me a little, because it now seems to show three very strong Bush days out of the last four.  I'm certainly not overly reliant on either of the polls, but they are data points in the larger picture, and they are the only post-debate data points we have so far.

[The Vorlon]

The Rasmussen poll is back to exactly where is was four-days ago...which leads me to believe it is just "de-blipping".  But the Zogby poll does worry me a little, because it now seems to show three very strong Bush days out of the last four.  I'm certainly not overly reliant on either of the polls, but they are data points in the larger picture, and they are the only post-debate data points we have so far.

Polls...

Ignore then one by one...

Trust them by the Dozen...

[MODU]

If the Zogby numbers actually turn out to be accurate, I'd be surprised.  However, I will not hold my breath.  Zogby has a history of being faulty in his polling methodology, and cannot be considered a reliable source when making projections.

[ATFFL]

If Zogby stays like this for a week or so I might think something of it.   Most likely I will think he is artificially inflating BUsh to have Kerry make a miracle run at the end.

[The Vorlon]

The Rasmussen poll is back to exactly where is was four-days ago...which leads me to believe it is just "de-blipping".  But the Zogby poll does worry me a little, because it now seems to show three very strong Bush days out of the last four.  I'm certainly not overly reliant on either of the polls, but they are data points in the larger picture, and they are the only post-debate data points we have so far.

Rasmussen has (I think) a bunch of very weird samples in the mix right now.  The breakout of support by GOP/Dem/Indy has be bouncing around in bizarre ways.  It is either a massive amount of random noise (always my first guess) of something major is re-aligning in the electorate.

Normally I have Rasmussen pretty well sorted out, but right now I just don't know