Home 2012 Election Results Election Info Weblog Wiki Search Email Site Info Store

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
June 19, 2013, 08:02:09 am
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Cast your ballot in the 2012 Mock Election!

+  Atlas Forum
|-+  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
| |-+  Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections
| | |-+  2013 & Odd Year Gubernatorial Election Polls (Moderator: Tender Branson)
| | | |-+  VA: Survey USA: McDonnell Leads VA by 11%		 « previous next »
Pages: [1] Print
Author Topic: VA: Survey USA: McDonnell Leads VA by 11%  (Read 1913 times)
Inks.LWC Supports Chuck Hagel
Inks.LWC
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 31869
United States


View Profile WWW
« on: October 05, 2009, 08:14:04 pm »
Ignore
New Poll: Virginia Governor by Survey USA on 2009-10-04

Summary: D: 43%, R: 54%, U: 4%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

If the election for Virginia governor were today, would you vote for... (candidate names rotated) Republican Bob McDonnell? Or Democrat Creigh Deeds?



McDonnell (R) - 54%

Deeds (D) - 43%

Undecided - 4%
Logged
All life is a blur of Republicans and meat.
Eraserhead
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 36348
United States


View Profile
« Reply #1 on: October 06, 2009, 11:30:36 am »
Ignore
Game over. Sad
Logged
Quote from: BushKenya on June 04, 2013, 08:07:16 pm
I went to the drink fountain with the intention of getting a diet drink, but I accidentally hit the Dr Pepper lever.  I didn't realize it until the cup was full.
Lіef
Lief
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 27387


View Profile
« Reply #2 on: October 06, 2009, 12:08:51 pm »
Ignore
Looks about right. Too bad right in this case also equals gross. Sad
Logged
Umengus
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1936
Belgium


View Profile
« Reply #3 on: October 06, 2009, 12:11:18 pm »
Ignore
sample is gop + 5
Logged
Re: France 2012: the official thread
« Reply #622 on: July 25, 2011, 04:44:20 pm » 

Quote from: Umengus on July 25, 2011, 03:19:09 pm

against Aubry, Sarkozy will win. Aubry is a very bad candidate for prime time : no charisma, no sympathy, muslim connection, stupid ideas,... and sarkozy is a good candidate...

but against hollande, sarkozy will lose."

Censured by REALPOLITIK due to "offensive content".

"It ought to be noted that there's no freedom of speech here." xahar
You kip if you want to...
change08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 8085
United Kingdom


View Profile
« Reply #4 on: October 06, 2009, 12:24:08 pm »
Ignore
Meh. "Republican GAIN from Democrat"
Logged

VP Duke
AHDuke99
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 16547


Political Matrix
E: -1.29, S: -6.35

View Profile
« Reply #5 on: October 06, 2009, 04:09:31 pm »
Ignore
Poor Ben. Sad
Logged
I call that getting swindled and pimped
Aizen
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4562


Political Matrix
E: -3.23, S: -9.22

View Profile
« Reply #6 on: October 06, 2009, 04:11:53 pm »
Ignore
fine you rethuglicans. you get virginia. but we will have the last laugh in new jersey.
Logged
All life is a blur of Republicans and meat.
Eraserhead
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 36348
United States


View Profile
« Reply #7 on: October 06, 2009, 05:32:15 pm »
Ignore
Quote from: Aizen on October 06, 2009, 04:11:53 pm
fine you rethuglicans. you get virginia. but we will have the last laugh in new jersey.

Papers will say "Split Decision" instead of "Republicans on the Rise". I can live with that.
Logged
Quote from: BushKenya on June 04, 2013, 08:07:16 pm
I went to the drink fountain with the intention of getting a diet drink, but I accidentally hit the Dr Pepper lever.  I didn't realize it until the cup was full.
Vepres
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 8146
United States


Political Matrix
E: 6.26, S: -7.39

View Profile
« Reply #8 on: October 06, 2009, 05:50:23 pm »
Ignore
Quote from: Eraserhead on October 06, 2009, 05:32:15 pm
Quote from: Aizen on October 06, 2009, 04:11:53 pm
fine you rethuglicans. you get virginia. but we will have the last laugh in new jersey.

Papers will say "Split Decision" instead of "Republicans on the Rise". I can live with that.

The two races, in terms of numbers, are the opposite of what we thought a few months ago.
Logged
LOL, Failure

Quote from: Vepres on October 31, 2010, 02:21:38 pm
Alright, if Republicans gain less than 75 seats, I'll prominently display my failure in my signature.
Dan the Roman
liberalrepublican
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1796
United States


P P P
View Profile
« Reply #9 on: October 06, 2009, 05:56:25 pm »
Ignore
Not that it matters to the actual outcome, but I still don't buy SUSA's likely voter sample here. I think it should be more like 49-48 McCain, and probably an overall result of 51-45.  That would still be a bit more republican than PPP's sample. At the end of the day I feel that local tax initiatives will bring out Northern VA Democrats if Deeds can't, and the fact that Surveyusa only polls the statewide races is producing a more Republican sample than will actually occur.
Logged
auburntiger
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1258
United States


Political Matrix
E: 2.61, S: 0.65

View Profile
« Reply #10 on: October 06, 2009, 09:45:14 pm »
Ignore
It will be interesting to see how NoVA votes this year. We'll see just how partisan this trend really is. As for both VA and NJ, I had always thought NJ would be tougher for a GOP pickup, it just goes without question when compared with VA.
Logged
Moderate Republican turned Independent.
JohnnyLongtorso
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 6854


View Profile
« Reply #11 on: October 07, 2009, 07:11:23 am »
Ignore
Quote from: auburntiger on October 06, 2009, 09:45:14 pm
It will be interesting to see how NoVA votes this year. We'll see just how partisan this trend really is. As for both VA and NJ, I had always thought NJ would be tougher for a GOP pickup, it just goes without question when compared with VA.

I've been using 2005's results as a baseline, since it was literally a 50/50 split:

http://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?fips=51&year=2005&f=0&off=9

Alexandria/Arlington/Falls Church are reliably 70% Dem, Fairfax tends to go 55-60% Dem, and Prince William/Loudoun have become swing counties. Deeds didn't win either of the last two last year, so even if he ekes out a win, I doubt he'd win either. He'll still win Fairfax, but probably on the low end of the 55-60%.

Incidentally, the last statewide Republican candidate to win Fairfax was Jerry Kilgore in 2001, but he only won by about 5% while blowing out Don McEachin 60-40 statewide.
Logged
Senator Ben
benconstine
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 29899
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: 2.61

View Profile
« Reply #12 on: October 07, 2009, 02:44:06 pm »
Ignore
Quote from: AHDuke99 on October 06, 2009, 04:09:31 pm
Poor Ben. Sad

I sound like a broken record, but this is not over.  Deeds will win the only poll that matters.
Logged
Quote from: The Mikado on March 18, 2011, 11:12:39 pm
Obama High's debate team:

"Now let me be clear...I...I...um...uh...now let me be clear.  I strongly condemn the affirmative in the strongest possible terms, and I am closely monitoring their arguments.  Let me be clear on this."
Senator Sbane
sbane
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 12213


View Profile
« Reply #13 on: October 14, 2009, 04:06:14 pm »
Ignore
Quote from: Deeds for Governor '09 on October 07, 2009, 02:44:06 pm
Quote from: AHDuke99 on October 06, 2009, 04:09:31 pm
Poor Ben. Sad

I sound like a broken record, but this is not over.  Deeds will win the only poll that matters.

What is this based on? What are you seeing that we aren't?
Logged
Senator Ben
benconstine
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 29899
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: 2.61

View Profile
« Reply #14 on: October 14, 2009, 05:44:55 pm »
Ignore
Quote from: sbane on October 14, 2009, 04:06:14 pm
What is this based on? What are you seeing that we aren't?

Deeds is blasting ads in Northern Virginia, attacking McDonnell.  He only needs to keep up his 2005 numbers in NOVA to win the election, and the region has swung to the Democrats since then.  Ultimately, he will manage the votes he needs.
Logged
Quote from: The Mikado on March 18, 2011, 11:12:39 pm
Obama High's debate team:

"Now let me be clear...I...I...um...uh...now let me be clear.  I strongly condemn the affirmative in the strongest possible terms, and I am closely monitoring their arguments.  Let me be clear on this."
All life is a blur of Republicans and meat.
Eraserhead
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 36348
United States


View Profile
« Reply #15 on: October 14, 2009, 05:58:41 pm »
Ignore
Quote from: Deeds for Governor '09 on October 14, 2009, 05:44:55 pm
Quote from: sbane on October 14, 2009, 04:06:14 pm
What is this based on? What are you seeing that we aren't?

Deeds is blasting ads in Northern Virginia, attacking McDonnell.  He only needs to keep up his 2005 numbers in NOVA to win the election, and the region has swung to the Democrats since then.  Ultimately, he will manage the votes he needs.

I guess all of the polling is just completely wrong then.
Logged
Quote from: BushKenya on June 04, 2013, 08:07:16 pm
I went to the drink fountain with the intention of getting a diet drink, but I accidentally hit the Dr Pepper lever.  I didn't realize it until the cup was full.
Senator Sbane
sbane
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 12213


View Profile
« Reply #16 on: October 14, 2009, 06:10:52 pm »
Ignore
Quote from: Deeds for Governor '09 on October 14, 2009, 05:44:55 pm
Quote from: sbane on October 14, 2009, 04:06:14 pm
What is this based on? What are you seeing that we aren't?

Deeds is blasting ads in Northern Virginia, attacking McDonnell.  He only needs to keep up his 2005 numbers in NOVA to win the election, and the region has swung to the Democrats since then.  Ultimately, he will manage the votes he needs.

Does Deeds have more money or something? I am sure Mcdonnell is blasting ads as well. But maybe it's only in "real Virginia" since its more cost effective.
Logged
Senator Ben
benconstine
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 29899
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: 2.61

View Profile
« Reply #17 on: October 14, 2009, 06:16:46 pm »
Ignore
Quote from: sbane on October 14, 2009, 06:10:52 pm
Does Deeds have more money or something? I am sure Mcdonnell is blasting ads as well. But maybe it's only in "real Virginia" since its more cost effective.

McDonnell is running ads in NOVA, as well, but not nearly as many as Deeds.  Plus, Deeds is running ads that are attacking McDonnell, and that's what matters.
Logged
Quote from: The Mikado on March 18, 2011, 11:12:39 pm
Obama High's debate team:

"Now let me be clear...I...I...um...uh...now let me be clear.  I strongly condemn the affirmative in the strongest possible terms, and I am closely monitoring their arguments.  Let me be clear on this."
All life is a blur of Republicans and meat.
Eraserhead
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 36348
United States


View Profile
« Reply #18 on: October 14, 2009, 10:53:13 pm »
Ignore
Quote from: Deeds for Governor '09 on October 14, 2009, 06:16:46 pm
Quote from: sbane on October 14, 2009, 06:10:52 pm
Does Deeds have more money or something? I am sure Mcdonnell is blasting ads as well. But maybe it's only in "real Virginia" since its more cost effective.

McDonnell is running ads in NOVA, as well, but not nearly as many as Deeds.  Plus, Deeds is running ads that are attacking McDonnell, and that's what matters.

Candidates do tend to do that when they're far behind.
Logged
Quote from: BushKenya on June 04, 2013, 08:07:16 pm
I went to the drink fountain with the intention of getting a diet drink, but I accidentally hit the Dr Pepper lever.  I didn't realize it until the cup was full.
Stampever
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 492
View Profile
« Reply #19 on: October 15, 2009, 08:22:13 am »
Ignore
Quote from: Strawberry Mouth on October 14, 2009, 10:53:13 pm
Quote from: Deeds for Governor '09 on October 14, 2009, 06:16:46 pm
Quote from: sbane on October 14, 2009, 06:10:52 pm
Does Deeds have more money or something? I am sure Mcdonnell is blasting ads as well. But maybe it's only in "real Virginia" since its more cost effective.

McDonnell is running ads in NOVA, as well, but not nearly as many as Deeds.  Plus, Deeds is running ads that are attacking McDonnell, and that's what matters.

Candidates do tend to do that when they're far behind.

Agreed.  The negative campaign worked well over the Summer, but hammering the same message for months after the peek just shows that there is no deeper substance to the candidate, especially when they are nearly 10 points behind.
Logged
Lіef
Lief
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 27387


View Profile
« Reply #20 on: October 15, 2009, 04:47:59 pm »
Ignore
Quote from: Deeds for Governor '09 on October 14, 2009, 06:16:46 pm
Quote from: sbane on October 14, 2009, 06:10:52 pm
Does Deeds have more money or something? I am sure Mcdonnell is blasting ads as well. But maybe it's only in "real Virginia" since its more cost effective.

McDonnell is running ads in NOVA, as well, but not nearly as many as Deeds.  Plus, Deeds is running ads that are attacking McDonnell, and that's what matters.

From what I'm seeing, they're running about the same number of ads. And McDonnell is running plenty of ads attacking Deeds as well.
Logged
Pages: [1] Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Logout

Powered by SMF 1.1.18 | SMF © 2013, Simple Machines
Forums Directory