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Author Topic: Castle is IN!!!  (Read 5223 times)
Duke
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« Reply #25 on: October 06, 2009, 03:59:48 pm »
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This is great news! I was afraid he wouldn't run. I expect the GOP will take over this seat in 2010.
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Deldem
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« Reply #26 on: October 06, 2009, 08:05:59 pm »
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Wow. I was thinking at this point he wasn't going to do it. This is probably going to be the most competitive race by far in 2010. At least he's a moderate though- he may be more willing to cooperate than most of the GOP members in that chamber.

On the plus side, at least we're getting that House seat...
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nhmagic
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« Reply #27 on: October 06, 2009, 08:19:42 pm »
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IM SO EXCITED NOW. lol.


he already has a developed website: http://www.castleforsenate.com/
This already shows how aware he is of the possible competition.  Having a site right out the gate is essential these days and this one was obviously under professional development for awhile.  If he had lagged in this area, I would have been worried.  Nate Silver, a person I loathe, says his chances are north of 55-60% to win the seat.

Also, Beau Biden would be wise to wait.  If he is and likely will be defeated by Castle, that produces a stain upon future election prospects until a good democratic year comes along.  I highly doubt that year will be in the middle of the 6 year itch of Obamas presidency though - nearly every president loses a big amount of seats in the third midterm.  At the same time, if Obama loses re-election, then Biden would be in a prime position for a Republican midterm, which as history shows, makes it easier in most cases (excepting Bush).
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Lunar
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« Reply #28 on: October 06, 2009, 08:30:33 pm »
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again, the stain on Beau's record would be minimal.  Running a highly competitive race, running three million dollars of ads, and meeting all of the national movers, shakers, and money-funders can only help any future state-wide runs Beau would like to make.

And, of course, the national Democratic fundraising circles will be more than a little miffed if Beau hands the GOP this seat on a silver platter in exchange for waiting four years, a slight I doubt they'd forget.

You have to go back to JFK to find a president who never lost a campaign in his career.
« Last Edit: October 06, 2009, 08:32:32 pm by Lunar »Logged

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IDS Judicial Overlord PiT
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« Reply #29 on: October 06, 2009, 08:34:36 pm »
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     Sounds very interesting. The Northeast is not a region that has seen that many competitive races in the last few cycles.
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Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #30 on: October 06, 2009, 09:08:24 pm »
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Great!!!!!!!!!!!!


Ayotte, Kirk, Norton, Lowden, Portman, Crist, Grayson, and now Castle. Granted some of these are better then others but 8 good recruits for seats. Haven't been this good since 2004 in terms of recruitment.
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He's BACK!!! His Time Has Come Once Again! Now We're All Gonna Die! No One is Safe From His Wrath!



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« Reply #31 on: October 06, 2009, 09:42:34 pm »
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Great!!!!!!!!!!!!


Ayotte, Kirk, Norton, Lowden, Portman, Crist, Grayson, and now Castle. Granted some of these are better then others but 8 good recruits for seats. Haven't been this good since 2004 in terms of recruitment.

Yeah, the GOP is getting incredibly lucky so far.  Although, I am not yet convinced that Crist will be the Republican nominee.  I think there is still a chance, albeit a small one, that Rubio could emerge and win the primary.
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BeccaM
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« Reply #32 on: October 06, 2009, 10:11:15 pm »
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I think Rubio would still be favored over Meek, but definitely not a sure thing.

His fundraising has improved recently.
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« Reply #33 on: October 06, 2009, 10:11:33 pm »
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IM SO EXCITED NOW. lol.


he already has a developed website: http://www.castleforsenate.com/
This already shows how aware he is of the possible competition.  Having a site right out the gate is essential these days and this one was obviously under professional development for awhile.  If he had lagged in this area, I would have been worried.  Nate Silver, a person I loathe, says his chances are north of 55-60% to win the seat.

Also, Beau Biden would be wise to wait.  If he is and likely will be defeated by Castle, that produces a stain upon future election prospects until a good democratic year comes along.  I highly doubt that year will be in the middle of the 6 year itch of Obamas presidency though - nearly every president loses a big amount of seats in the third midterm.  At the same time, if Obama loses re-election, then Biden would be in a prime position for a Republican midterm, which as history shows, makes it easier in most cases (excepting Bush).

If Democrats have a bad 2010, they probably wont ALSO have a bad 2014.  Usually only one of the two midterms is bad.  
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nhmagic
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« Reply #34 on: October 06, 2009, 11:57:25 pm »
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IM SO EXCITED NOW. lol.


he already has a developed website: http://www.castleforsenate.com/
This already shows how aware he is of the possible competition.  Having a site right out the gate is essential these days and this one was obviously under professional development for awhile.  If he had lagged in this area, I would have been worried.  Nate Silver, a person I loathe, says his chances are north of 55-60% to win the seat.

Also, Beau Biden would be wise to wait.  If he is and likely will be defeated by Castle, that produces a stain upon future election prospects until a good democratic year comes along.  I highly doubt that year will be in the middle of the 6 year itch of Obamas presidency though - nearly every president loses a big amount of seats in the third midterm.  At the same time, if Obama loses re-election, then Biden would be in a prime position for a Republican midterm, which as history shows, makes it easier in most cases (excepting Bush).

If Democrats have a bad 2010, they probably wont ALSO have a bad 2014.  Usually only one of the two midterms is bad.  
Thats not an accurate statement.  That has only been a phenomenon in the Bush (911 for his first midterm) and Clinton (impeachment backlash) years. The average midterm always produces a loss for the president.  1st midterm ave - 17 house seats, 1.1. senate seats / 2nd midterm ave - 29.8 house seats / 5.6 senate seats.  Now, what is rare are gigantor midterms on the level of 1994 and 2006.

See this link: http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/article.php?id=LJS2006102601
Scroll down and it has a chart of midterms for presidents since Truman.
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« Reply #35 on: October 07, 2009, 04:52:36 am »
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Great!!!!!!!!!!!!


Ayotte, Kirk, Norton, Lowden, Portman, Crist, Grayson, and now Castle. Granted some of these are better then others but 8 good recruits for seats. Haven't been this good since 2004 in terms of recruitment.

Yeah, the GOP is getting incredibly lucky so far.  Although, I am not yet convinced that Crist will be the Republican nominee.  I think there is still a chance, albeit a small one, that Rubio could emerge and win the primary.

Of course theirs a chance Rubio 'could' win the primary. But I do believe that once Crist starts groudsupport and advertising he will gain more grassroots support.

Yeah, Rubio annouced he raised about $1 MIL. Which is better than his 320K last quarter. I would suspect that Crist will raise double if not triple Rubio's amount. 

Oh an it is expected today that a semi-major candidate will primary Meek. So its not all clear for him either.
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« Reply #36 on: October 07, 2009, 08:10:40 am »
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The 2010 DE US Senate Race is a Special Election. whoever wins has to face re-election in November 2014.  Mike Castle-R if elected will serve 4 years in the US Senate and retire in 2014 when his term expires. Beau Biden-D has two choices- He can run for re-election as Attorney General. He will win re-election by a landslide margin due to high name recognition and incumbency advantage. In 2014 when Castle-R decides to retire from the US Senate. Beau Biden-D will be the front runner for that seat.  He can run for the US Senate. If he runs- Biden will have to win or lose narrowly. If he loses narrowly He can run again in 2014. If he loses badly- than John Carney-D will be the standard bearer in 2014.
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Rowan
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« Reply #37 on: October 07, 2009, 08:48:15 am »
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Biden might be getting cold feet:

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2009/10/07/will_biden_run.html
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« Reply #38 on: October 07, 2009, 09:04:17 am »
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I figured this might happen.  It's hard to put a lot of effort into a race you're not favored to win when the opportunity will re-present itself shortly after.

Besides, Castle and Biden Sr. have always had good relations.  There may not be as much resistance as you think to the idea of just letting Castle have his four-year reward before retiring.

The only risk, of course, is having Carney vault into the race from his House seat.
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« Reply #39 on: October 07, 2009, 09:38:10 am »
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Statewide in DE- We have a Democratic governor- Jack Markell-D who was elected in 2008. Markell-D will win re-election in 2012 and leave office in 2016 due to term limits. Lt Governor- Mark Denn-D who was elected in 2008- will win re-election in 2012 and run for Governor in 2016. Democratic State Insurance Commissioner,Treasurer,and Attorney General-Beau Biden-D and Republican Auditor-Tom Wagner. US Senators- Tom Carper and Ed Kaufman who is leaving office in 2008. and At Large US House- is held by Republican Mike Castle-R who is running for US Senate.
John Carney-D is going to win the open At Large US House Seat Mike Castle-R is vacating. and lets say Mike Castle-gets elected to the US Senate and Biden Jr seeks re-election as Attorney General in 2010. In 2012- Governor Markell and US Senator Tom Carper both win re-election by a landslide margin. In 2014- Castle-R will retire. Biden will run for the US Senate- and win. Carney-D will wait until 2018 to run for US Senate-assuming Carper-D retires or remains in the US House.
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« Reply #40 on: October 07, 2009, 11:10:56 am »
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Biden in a way is very much like Joe Sestak, a low key, pro homeland security guy.  But when it comes to passage of key initiatives, like health care reform or national security issues he is very much a fighter and will fight with the democratic caucus to pass the things he care about. The races are very similar, trying to oust 70+ year olds that will only stay in the seats for short time periods.
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« Reply #41 on: October 07, 2009, 12:05:09 pm »
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Biden in a way is very much like Joe Sestak, a low key, pro homeland security guy.  But when it comes to passage of key initiatives, like health care reform or national security issues he is very much a fighter and will fight with the democratic caucus to pass the things he care about. The races are very similar, trying to oust 70+ year olds that will only stay in the seats for short time periods.

It's often hard for me to pass up the opportunity to vote for a Republican moderate (though the increasingly self-serving Specter and the borderline-idiot Linc Chafee are two good exceptions), so take this with a grain of salt, but my general impression of Castle is that he is an incredibly influential moderate voice of the house, perhaps more so than most Republicans outside of leadership.  He's a down-right intelligent guy, and based on his record in the House, he'll probably do more for Delaware in the minority than Babybiden will in the majority.
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« Reply #42 on: October 07, 2009, 01:06:03 pm »
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How long before we hear Castle in 2012 ......LOL
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And let's be honest, Obama could take a selfie of his junk in the bathroom mirror with his BlackBerry, have it transferred to canvas and you'd have people saying it ought to be hung in the National Gallery.

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« Reply #43 on: October 07, 2009, 05:41:10 pm »
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Biden in a way is very much like Joe Sestak, a low key, pro homeland security guy.  But when it comes to passage of key initiatives, like health care reform or national security issues he is very much a fighter and will fight with the democratic caucus to pass the things he care about. The races are very similar, trying to oust 70+ year olds that will only stay in the seats for short time periods.

It's often hard for me to pass up the opportunity to vote for a Republican moderate (though the increasingly self-serving Specter and the borderline-idiot Linc Chafee are two good exceptions), so take this with a grain of salt, but my general impression of Castle is that he is an incredibly influential moderate voice of the house, perhaps more so than most Republicans outside of leadership.  He's a down-right intelligent guy, and based on his record in the House, he'll probably do more for Delaware in the minority than Babybiden will in the majority.

Funny, my impression of Castle is he doesn't really care about anything other than making new coins.
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« Reply #44 on: October 07, 2009, 06:05:47 pm »
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They can be moderate, it's just that their moderation doesn't do very much when, for example, they vote for Jim Inhofe to chair the Environment and Public Works Committee or Jeff Sessions to chair the Judiciary Committee or Mitch McConnell to decide which bills and amendments are voted on. I don't deny that Castle might vote with Democrats on a couple of bills (though I doubt he'd support cap and trade or robust health care reform), but just because he's a moderate doesn't mean that he's not making some very, very conservative elements, elements that the voters in Delaware do not want running the country, more powerful.

The difference between McConnell getting 42 organizational votes and 41 organizational votes is pretty much negligible. Does anyone seriously think Castle will be around in the Senate long enough to see Republicans retake the body?
But the difference between 40 and 41 votes is huge.
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« Reply #45 on: October 07, 2009, 07:25:41 pm »
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They can be moderate, it's just that their moderation doesn't do very much when, for example, they vote for Jim Inhofe to chair the Environment and Public Works Committee or Jeff Sessions to chair the Judiciary Committee or Mitch McConnell to decide which bills and amendments are voted on. I don't deny that Castle might vote with Democrats on a couple of bills (though I doubt he'd support cap and trade or robust health care reform), but just because he's a moderate doesn't mean that he's not making some very, very conservative elements, elements that the voters in Delaware do not want running the country, more powerful.

The difference between McConnell getting 42 organizational votes and 41 organizational votes is pretty much negligible. Does anyone seriously think Castle will be around in the Senate long enough to see Republicans retake the body?
But the difference between 40 and 41 votes is huge.

Indeed, and the GOP needs more quasi-moderate Senators anyway.
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« Reply #46 on: October 07, 2009, 07:58:54 pm »
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Interesting, his issues page looks like a page that a Democrat would put on his website.
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« Reply #47 on: October 08, 2009, 07:25:45 am »
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They can be moderate, it's just that their moderation doesn't do very much when, for example, they vote for Jim Inhofe to chair the Environment and Public Works Committee or Jeff Sessions to chair the Judiciary Committee or Mitch McConnell to decide which bills and amendments are voted on. I don't deny that Castle might vote with Democrats on a couple of bills (though I doubt he'd support cap and trade or robust health care reform), but just because he's a moderate doesn't mean that he's not making some very, very conservative elements, elements that the voters in Delaware do not want running the country, more powerful.

The difference between McConnell getting 42 organizational votes and 41 organizational votes is pretty much negligible. Does anyone seriously think Castle will be around in the Senate long enough to see Republicans retake the body?
But the difference between 40 and 41 votes is huge.

Question: When was the last 6040 straight party line vote in the Senate?  Has there been one yet?  Will there ever be one?

A filibuster-proof 60 is a feel-good number that makes your brain all warm and fuzzy, but it's pretty much meaningless when you start looking at the Senate in real-world terms.
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« Reply #48 on: October 10, 2009, 10:21:49 am »
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Interesting, his issues page looks like a page that a Democrat would put on his website.

Unlike Mark Kirk or others, Castle is guaranteed the nomination so he might as well start working towards the general
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« Reply #49 on: October 10, 2009, 10:57:01 am »
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Castle-R is the semi incumbent in the 2010 DE US Senate Race- He has won 11 high profiled Statewide elections in DE. 2 times as Governor and 9 times as Congressman from the At Large US House District- which is a Statewide position. Castle is basically the 3rd US Senator from DE. Beau Biden-D is a novice in electoral politics. He won one statewide election- DE Attorney General- in 2006 against a veteran State Prosecutor. DE Attorney General position is a second tier Statewide election. Beau Biden-D has ties with the Obama-Biden Whitehouse. His father-VP Joe Biden- represented DE as a US Senator for 36 years. DE is a blue state which went for Obama by a 62-37 margin. Castle-R will need to win 100% of the McCain voters plus 25% of the Obama voters.
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