Australian Federal By-elections

[Smid]

Peter Costello (incidentally, my MP) just announced his resignation from the seat of Higgins.

http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/national/peter-costello-to-retire-from-federal-parliament-early/story-e6frf7l6-1225783837451

[Хahar 🤔]

Costello's career is over?

[Smid]

Rumour that Costello's brother and CEO of World Vision, Tim Costello, may consider running as an independent.

http://www.vexnews.com/news/6683/its-tim-could-peter-costellos-brother-crash-the-liberal-party-in-higgins/

[Robespierre's Jaw]

Rumour that Costello's brother and CEO of World Vision, Tim Costello, may consider running as an independent.

That's one Costello who should have entered federal politics.

Regardless of a Costello candidacy, the seat will remain in the hands of the Liberals. Higgins shall never ever fall into the hands of Labor, then again Howard said similar things about the GST in 1995...

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

I don't see how the Liberals could lose tbh

[Smid]

I don't see how the Liberals could lose tbh

A popular independent/third party candidate, Labor doesn't contest, Labor voters swing behind independent/third party, plus that party's voters, plus Liberals/swinging voters who don't like having to vote in a by-election... it can happen, not often, but it can happen. The Cunningham by-election is an example... Liberals didn't contest, Liberal voters voted Green, Greens won the safe Labor seat (and lost it at the next General Election). That was also the aim of Labor in not running a candidate in Mayo in the by-election, although the Liberals retained that seat.

Cunningham: http://www.aec.gov.au/Elections/supplementary_by_elections/cunningham/results.htm

Mayo:
By-election: http://vtr.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionFirstPrefs-13826-188.htm
2007 General Election: http://results.aec.gov.au/13745/Website/HouseDivisionFirstPrefs-13745-188.htm

I obviously think it's unlikely the seat will be lost by the Liberals, and I'll certainly be voting for Kelly O'Dwyer to try to keep it in Liberal hands, but it's certainly a possibility.

[Hash]

There's also a by-election in Bradfield, the affluent North Sydney suburban seat of Brendan Nelson.

I bring this up because the CDP is made of win: http://www.tallyroom.com.au/2322

[Smid]

Very interesting... of course, it will probably lose them some money because candidates receive about $2 for every vote they receive, so long as they receive at least 4% of the vote. So if they have all those candidates run, there's a reasonable chance that it will split the vote and potentially none of them will reach the 4% threshold, whereas if they run just a single candidate, they'd probably reach the level. Perhaps the electoral commission will add all the CDP candidate results together, but I don't think so.

EDIT: Just went over to Anthony Green's website and he says the same thing... http://blogs.abc.net.au/antonygreen/2009/10/stacking-the-ballot-paper-in-bradfield.html

[Smid]

The Greens have chosen a candidate. The ALP has decided not to contest:

http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/10/23/2722213.htm

[Hash]

I assume the Greenies will run well in Higgins since it includes a few areas friendly to them, like hippiesh-bobo-Bohemian areas.

[Platypus]

As Possum suggested, the Greens lost an opportunity for doing very well by choosing a Red green instead of a blue green.

[Smid]

I received my PVA (Postal Vote Application form) in the mail yesterday. I probably won't use it as I intend to be in the electorate on the day and I foresee no reason why I wouldn't be able to cast a ballot at that time.

[Smid]

Well, it's currently just gone 3.15 and I'm getting ready to head out to my local polling booth to put up plastic wrap along the fence and election signs for my candidate, and then staying up there to make sure no one tears it all down.

Once the booth opens at 8am, I'm going to hand out HTV cards through until they close at 6, although I may try to slink home around lunch for an hour or two's nap if we have enough volunteers.

After the polls close, I'll be scrutineering the count and expect to be finished at around 8 or 8.30 tonight. The booth is only small - 1,500 votes or so - and it's in one of the weaker parts of the electorate for us, where the Liberal vote is somewhere in the order of 7-9% less than it is across the electorate (Murrumbeena booth, Higgins).

Live election results will be available here: http://www.aec.gov.au/

And Antony Green always uploads results and commentary here: http://www.abc.net.au/elections/home/

[Smid]

Not many news articles presently up about it, but here's one I did find:
http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,,26440991-953,00.html

[Meeker]

Are the Australians required to vote in by-elections as well?

[Хahar 🤔]

Are the Australians required to vote in by-elections as well?

Yes, though turnout is far lower.

[Smid]

Won my booth for the first time in about a decade, about a 4.5% swing to us (Liberals) at that booth.

Antony Green on the ABC website suggests we've won both electorates, with a 0.7% swing against 2% swing TO us in Higgins.

[Hash]

Swing in Higgins on 2PP is only 0.5% according to ABC, but both seats have had swings from the Liberals in the first prefs.

Not bad for Liberals, obviously, but far from excellent, and not bad for the Greenies either.

[Robespierre's Jaw]

It always continues to amuse me when the result of a by-election is great the media immediately relates the success to the respective party's leader. For example, yesterday's electoral success for the Liberal Party, which was always expected the media are already relating such success to Tony Abbott, despite only becoming Opposition Leader last Tuesday. Funnily enough it was only a few days ago that the media were expecting the election of Abbott to hinder the electoral prospects of the Liberals in both Higgins and Bradfield despite their immense plurality. Damned oligarchy.