PA: Rasmussen: Toomey leads Specter, Sestak leads Toomey

[Rowan]

Rasmussen PA Senate

Toomey 45%
Specter 40%

Sestak 38%
Toomey 37%

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2010/election_2010_senate_elections/pennsylvania/2010_senate_election/election_2010_pennsylvania_senate_election

Sestak-Specter numbers out at 7 AM tomorrow.

[Tender Branson]

DEM Primary:

Specter: 46%
Sestak: 42%

http://www.myfoxphilly.com/dpp/news/politics/local_politics/101409_Poll_Shows_Sestak_Within_4_Points_Of_Specter

[12th Doctor]

As I have said from the beginning, I would much rather take on Specter.  People know Specter.  They hate Specter.  End of story.

Sestak is all potential.  Yes, his numbers aren't good now, but that is because no one knows who he is.  He is basically getting the votes of all people committed not to vote for a Republican.

[12th Doctor]

Plus, Specter leaves any primary mortally wounded from having to fight the Democrat base, while anyone who votes for him will only be doing so because they want to back the big name, who they think really has the better shot to win the general.

[Holmes]

There is hope.

Normally I wouldn't care about a Pennsylvania senate race, but Sestak would make an awesome senator.

[All life is a blur of Republicans and meat.]

Specter has become a complete joke.

[ChrisJG777]

Specter has become a complete been a complete joke for a while now.

[Aizen]

Wow, Sestak is close to Specter now in the Dem primary. Wasn't Specter beating Sestak like 37-11 in the last poll?

[You kip if you want to...]

Specter has lost this seat by himself, nobody else is to blame. Hopefully Sestak can help the Dems hold onto the seat.

[Lief]

DEM Primary:

Specter: 46%
Sestak: 42%

http://www.myfoxphilly.com/dpp/news/politics/local_politics/101409_Poll_Shows_Sestak_Within_4_Points_Of_Specter

Specter is toast. Maybe if the polls were like this with a few months to go Specter would have a 50-50 shot, but Sestak has more than another half a year to continue making himself known. Unless he screws up big, I don't see Sestak losing the primary.

[ChrisJG777]

Specter, doesn't stand a ghost of chance if his slipping poll figures hold true on election day.  (Ok, so I really wanted to use that pun.)

[OC]

Sestak will win the primary and we will have a fair shot at winning this thing.  Now, I think Toomey has not a fair shot if Sestak is the primary victor.

[Former Moderate]

Sestak probably beats Toomey by a couple points; Toomey probably thumps Specter by 5 or more.  I know all you Democrats think Toomey to be a nut, but as someone who actually lived in his district for a handful of years, he comes across a lot better and a lot more electable than you think...

[Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon]

Though I hold substantially less esteem for Senator Spector since he left the GOP, it must be said that being a moderate ain't much fun these days.

As difficult as it is to be a moderate Republican, the gods of politics do not look favorably upon party-switchers.  He would have been better off fighting to the bitter end in the GOP primary and at least being a standard-bearer for the dwindling numbers of voters who long for statesmenship and virtue instead of ideological madness and vitriol.

[Padfoot]

Though I hold substantially less esteem for Senator Spector since he left the GOP, it must be said that being a moderate ain't much fun these days.

As difficult as it is to be a moderate Republican, the gods of politics do not look favorably upon party-switchers.  He would have been better off fighting to the bitter end in the GOP primary and at least being a standard-bearer for the dwindling numbers of voters who long for statesmenship and virtue instead of ideological madness and vitriol.

I think his chances would have been better if he'd just gone indy and then caucused with the Democrats instead of a full blown party switch.  Switching parties opens you up to more accusations of hypocrisy than going indy does.  Granted, Pennsylvania is probably a hard state to run in without a party but I think Specter could have pulled it off.

Actually, come to think of it, this is what the moderates should have done from the beginning.  Specter, Collins, and Snowe should have all left the GOP simultaneously and created their own party.  I'm sure they could have gotten some house members to join them as well.

[Smash255]

Sestak probably beats Toomey by a couple points; Toomey probably thumps Specter by 5 or more.  I know all you Democrats think Toomey to be a nut, but as someone who actually lived in his district for a handful of years, he comes across a lot better and a lot more electable than you think...

Bucks + Montco +Delaware + Chester = no chance.  Toomey loses 5-8 points against Specter,  double digits against Sestak

[© Tweed the Younger]

Specter done?  hard to imagine something that causes his popularity to be boosted.

[Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon]

Though I hold substantially less esteem for Senator Spector since he left the GOP, it must be said that being a moderate ain't much fun these days.

As difficult as it is to be a moderate Republican, the gods of politics do not look favorably upon party-switchers.  He would have been better off fighting to the bitter end in the GOP primary and at least being a standard-bearer for the dwindling numbers of voters who long for statesmenship and virtue instead of ideological madness and vitriol.

I think his chances would have been better if he'd just gone indy and then caucused with the Democrats instead of a full blown party switch.  Switching parties opens you up to more accusations of hypocrisy than going indy does.  Granted, Pennsylvania is probably a hard state to run in without a party but I think Specter could have pulled it off.

Actually, come to think of it, this is what the moderates should have done from the beginning.  Specter, Collins, and Snowe should have all left the GOP simultaneously and created their own party.  I'm sure they could have gotten some house members to join them as well.

BAD IDEA.  Well good for them personally so that they can sleep at night, but bad for America in general.

Every moderate that leaves the Republican Party causes said Party to move towards its extremist wing - same is true of Democrats.

Too many self-described centrists and moderates choose to be "Independent" or "Vote for the man and not the Party" etc.   Many times these voters hold the cards in the general election, but these attitudes cause them to only have a choice between a tweedle-dum right-winger and a tweedle-dee left-winger.

[RomneyGekko Situation Hairgel]

Sestak probably beats Toomey by a couple points; Toomey probably thumps Specter by 5 or more.  I know all you Democrats think Toomey to be a nut, but as someone who actually lived in his district for a handful of years, he comes across a lot better and a lot more electable than you think...

I've lived in PA 15 for a while as well.  I didn't exactly think that was a conservative enclave, but Toomey managed to win tha area for years and that says something.  Union Dems are tired of Specter's sh**t and may revert to Toomey by default or not vote at all.  Sestak OTOH is more electable upstate and out West due to his background.

[SamInTheSouth]

Though I hold substantially less esteem for Senator Spector since he left the GOP, it must be said that being a moderate ain't much fun these days.

As difficult as it is to be a moderate Republican, the gods of politics do not look favorably upon party-switchers.  He would have been better off fighting to the bitter end in the GOP primary and at least being a standard-bearer for the dwindling numbers of voters who long for statesmenship and virtue instead of ideological madness and vitriol.

He probably should have just switched to Independent.  He would have had a better chance in a three way race.

[All life is a blur of Republicans and meat.]

Sestak or whoever won the Democratic Primary would have laced Toomey if they would have just left him to be the "moderate slayer" in the GOP Primary. As it stands now, the race will be competitive, especially if the national atmosphere is bad for Democrats in '10. Christ, this is a state that managed to elect Crypto-Fascist Santorum a few times before finally tossing him out on his ass. I'm a bit concerned.

[Smash255]

Sestak or whoever won the Democratic Primary would have laced Toomey if they would have just left him to be the "moderate slayer" in the GOP Primary. As it stands now, the race will be competitive, especially if the national atmosphere is bad for Democrats in '10. Christ, this is a state that managed to elect Crypto-Fascist Santorum a few times before finally tossing him out on his ass. I'm a bit concerned.

Granted, but that was during a time when Republicans were still competitive in suburban Philly.  Now only moderate Republicans are competitive in suburban Philly, conservatives aren't.

[RomneyGekko Situation Hairgel]

Sestak or whoever won the Democratic Primary would have laced Toomey if they would have just left him to be the "moderate slayer" in the GOP Primary. As it stands now, the race will be competitive, especially if the national atmosphere is bad for Democrats in '10. Christ, this is a state that managed to elect Crypto-Fascist Santorum a few times before finally tossing him out on his ass. I'm a bit concerned.

Granted, but that was during a time when Republicans were still competitive in suburban Philly.  Now only moderate Republicans are competitive in suburban Philly, conservatives aren't.

BUT Republicans are succeeding in getting union, Bob Casey Democrats.  I know Pat Toomey would have about a 20% chance of winning Bucks County at best, Chester 10%, Montgomery/Delaware about 2%, but Santoomeyites have been successful in Jack Murtha-land if you know what I mean.  That could be dangerous.

[Rowan]

I like how people underestimate Toomey. This election should be fun.

[RomneyGekko Situation Hairgel]

I like how people underestimate Toomey. This election should be fun.

Only with Specter.  He no longer appeals to union Dems and most polls show the going for Toomey and not voting out of protest.  Sestak OTOH has much room to improve.  PA is just not that conservative, BUT if a Dem pisses off a portion of their base, they could have issues.  Specter did with dilly-dallying with EFCA and it will cost him.