DE: Senate: Biden not in trouble any longer R2K poll

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

D:45, R: 46%

http://www.dailykos.com/statepoll/2009/10/14/DE/395

[Aizen]

wait, he's losing albeit by a single point. but isn't that still "in trouble" or am i out of the loop.

[Rowan]

It's really amazing how different R2K's turnout model for 2010 is from other pollsters.

[Sam Spade]

lol

[nkpatel1279]

If we look at the breakdown of the polls- Among Democrats- Beau Biden leads Mike Castle by a 72-21 percent margin. Among Republicans- Mike Castle leads Beau Biden by a 82-9 and Among Independents- Castle leads Biden by a 48-40 percent margin.
Looking at the 2008 exit polls- 48% of the electorate are Democrats. 31% are Republicans and 21% are Independents. 
If Democrats consist of 45% of the electorate and Biden leads Castle among Democrats by a 80-20. Biden will start with 36% while Castle will start with 9%. If Republicans consists of 35% of the electorate. and Castle leads Biden among Republicans by a 90-10 percent margin. Castle will lead Biden by a 40.5-39.5 percent margin. If Independents will consists of 20% of the electorate- and Castle leads Biden among Independents by a 55-45 percent margin. Castle-R defeats Biden-D by a 51.5-48.5 percent margin.  If Democrats consists of 45% Republicans consists of 30% of the electorate and Independents consists of 25% of the electorate. Biden-D defeats  Castle-R by a 50.25-49.75 percent margin. If Democrats consists of 50% of the electorate, Republicans consists of 30% of the electorate and Independents consists of 20% of the electorate. Biden-D defeats Castle-R by a 52-48 percent margin. Biden-D will defeat Castle-R by a 52.5-47.5 percent margin.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The GOP may have been overly optimistic in their chances in this race.  Biden Jr. will be a strong candiate no matter what and that's what I was trying to say in the title.


It isn't lean republican anymore.

[Rowan]

The GOP may have been overly optimistic in their chances in this race.  Biden Jr. will be a strong candiate no matter what and that's what I was trying to say in the title.


It isn't lean republican anymore.

And what made the change? A Daily Kos poll?

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

lol

[nkpatel1279]

This race should not have been a lean Republican in the first place.
Bill Roth was the last GOP US Senator from DE. He won his first Statewide office in 1966 as At Large US House Member unseating a Democratic Incumbent. He won re-election in 1968. In 1970,He got elected to an open US Senate Seat- defeating a sacrificial lamb Democratic opponent by a 59-40 percent margin. He was re-elected in 1976 and 1982 by a 56-44 percent margin. In 1988 against SB Woo a one term Lt Governor- by a 62-38 percent margin and in 1994 against Charles Oberly-a sitting DE AG by a 56-42 percent margin. Roth lost re-election in 2000 to Tom Carper- who was a popular two term Governor by a 56-44 percent margin. Joe Biden Sr. served more than 6 terms in the US Senate- He first unseated a Republican incumbent-Caleb Boggs in 1972 by a 51-49 percent margin. Re-elected in 1978,1984,1990,1996,2002,and 2008 with 60-65% of the popular vote.  Beau Biden is in a much stronger position his father was in 1972 when he narrowly defeated Caleb Boggs. and is a much stronger candidate than SB Woo and Charles Oberly.  

[nkpatel1279]

The previous DE US Senate Polls are based on name recognition. Mike Castle-R is the 800lb gorilla in this race- He has won 12 Statewide election since 1980. He has a moderate ideology. Beau Biden-D is a freshface candidate- He is in his first term as State AG-elected by a 53-47 percent margin in 2006. Biden is also the son of the sitting US VP who also served more than 6 terms in the US Senate. Castle has to deal with a Democratic opponent who has the same favorable/unfavorable ratings as he has. a Democratic opponent whose father happens to be VP of the US States and a 6 term US Senator of the seat that is being contested. a Democratic opponent who will do extremely well on the campaign trail.