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Author Topic: Future electoral votes?  (Read 9385 times)
Grad Students are the Worst
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« on: October 16, 2004, 12:57:40 am »
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Is it known what the electoral vote designations will be in 2008, and, if not, what are the estimations if there are any and what will they be based on?
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FuturePrez R-AZ
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« Reply #1 on: October 16, 2004, 01:04:36 am »
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Do you mean how many EVs each state is worth? 

Assuming that's what you mean and there are no Constitutional changes in the next four years, they will be the same as this year.  They only get changed after the census.  Therefore, no changes until 2012.  Again, unless we monkey with the Constitution.
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Grad Students are the Worst
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« Reply #2 on: October 16, 2004, 01:05:42 am »
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That is what I meant. So our current votes are based on the 2000 census? Makes sense.
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FuturePrez R-AZ
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« Reply #3 on: October 16, 2004, 01:20:23 am »
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Correct, that's why the map is different now than it was in 2000.
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« Reply #4 on: October 16, 2004, 01:33:09 am »
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It is possible but not likely that Puerto Rico could achieve Statehood between now and the 2008 election.  If that were to happen Puerto Rico could have aywhere from 3 to 8 EV's depending upon how many Representatives they give Puerto Rico until the next apportionment.  The only State to date that had sufficient population to warrant more than one Representative when joining the original 13 was West Virginia and that state's unique entry is hardly a firm precedent.   Other than that, I can see anything that would change the EV map between now and 2008.
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Grad Students are the Worst
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« Reply #5 on: October 16, 2004, 01:37:02 am »
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Are there any statistics on how Puerto Rico would vote?
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« Reply #6 on: October 16, 2004, 01:45:09 am »
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PR would probobly be about three votes.
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« Reply #7 on: October 16, 2004, 01:52:16 am »
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Not really, Puerto Rican politics have been largely entangled in the statehood issue, withteh two main parties, with the PNP (pro-statehood) and the PPD (pro-commonwealth) parties being about equal in strength (a slight edge to the PPD).  There are token branches of the Democrats and the Republicans there but they have no influence in Puerto Rican politics, even less than the PIP (pro-independence).  The PNP would probably align with the Republicans and the PDP with the Democrats if statehood came, but how the voters would react post-statehood is anyone's guess.  By their population they would be entitle to 6 CD's but new States have traditionally been given only one, so it's very hard to say how many Puerto Rico would have until the next apportionment.
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« Reply #8 on: October 16, 2004, 06:32:44 am »
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By their population they would be entitle to 6 CD's but new States have traditionally been given only one, so it's very hard to say how many Puerto Rico would have until the next apportionment.
Since 1840, 20 states have been admitted subsequent to a post-census apportionment (Kansas, Arizona, and New Mexico were included in the apportionment legislation immediately before their accession, and West Virginia took over the representation for the western part of Virginia).

13 states (FL, OR, NE, NV, CO, ND, MT, ID, WY, WA, UT, AK, and HI) were admitted with 1 representative, and kept that number after the next census.  The exceptions are Washington and Hawaii.  Washington had nearly quintupled in population in the decade before its admission.  Based on its 1950 population, Hawaii might have been entitled to a 2nd representative, but its population was less than 1.5 of the national average.  Relatively strong growth in the 1950s gave it the 2nd representative immediately after statehood.  Incidentally, the 1960 Hawaii population was just barely greater than North Dakota.  It was in 1970 that ND lost its 2nd representative.

6 states (TX, IA, WI, CA, MN, and SD) were admitted with 2 representatives.  Only Wisconsin increased its representation at the next census.  Several of these states were admitted towards the end of the decade, so the extra representative would have been based on an estimate of population.  Texas and California were admitted before a US census had been held.

1 state, Oklahoma, was admitted with 5 representatives, which increased to 8 at the next census.

So the precedent would appear to be give a new state its full entitlement of representatives.  An issue might be whether the House would revert back to 435 members at the next census as was done in 1960.   In 2000, this would have cost Georgia, Florida, California, and North Carolina one of their new representatives, but taken a representative away from Ohio and Iowa.
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Akno21
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« Reply #9 on: October 16, 2004, 04:22:51 pm »
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I calculated all the totals based on trends until 2040, I could post them. Of course, that doesn't include Puerto Rico.
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Grad Students are the Worst
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« Reply #10 on: October 16, 2004, 04:46:16 pm »
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I calculated all the totals based on trends until 2040, I could post them. Of course, that doesn't include Puerto Rico.

If you could, that would be great. I'd love to see them.
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« Reply #11 on: October 16, 2004, 04:48:24 pm »
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Is it known what the electoral vote designations will be in 2008, and, if not, what are the estimations if there are any and what will they be based on?
Don't you mean 2012?
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« Reply #12 on: October 16, 2004, 04:49:10 pm »
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Not really, Puerto Rican politics have been largely entangled in the statehood issue, withteh two main parties, with the PNP (pro-statehood) and the PPD (pro-commonwealth) parties being about equal in strength (a slight edge to the PPD).  There are token branches of the Democrats and the Republicans there but they have no influence in Puerto Rican politics, even less than the PIP (pro-independence).  The PNP would probably align with the Republicans and the PDP with the Democrats if statehood came, but how the voters would react post-statehood is anyone's guess.  By their population they would be entitle to 6 CD's but new States have traditionally been given only one, so it's very hard to say how many Puerto Rico would have until the next apportionment.

CA had 4 EV in its first Presidential election.
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Grad Students are the Worst
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« Reply #13 on: October 16, 2004, 04:53:44 pm »
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Is it known what the electoral vote designations will be in 2008, and, if not, what are the estimations if there are any and what will they be based on?
Don't you mean 2012?

Uh, no, I meant 2008. I was unaware of how often electoral votes were changed, which is why I asked.
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« Reply #14 on: October 17, 2004, 02:55:46 am »
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PR would probobly be about three votes.

I would say 6 or 7
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« Reply #15 on: October 17, 2004, 02:56:59 pm »
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2012-2020
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« Reply #16 on: October 17, 2004, 02:59:05 pm »
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Thank you, Akno. You rock.
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Akno21
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« Reply #17 on: October 17, 2004, 03:02:05 pm »
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2024-2028
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Akno21
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« Reply #18 on: October 17, 2004, 03:02:55 pm »
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Thank you, Akno. You rock.

You're welcome, Alcon. Thanks, I wish that assesment of me was shared by more people.
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Akno21
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« Reply #19 on: October 17, 2004, 03:09:18 pm »
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2032-2040
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muon2
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« Reply #20 on: October 17, 2004, 03:14:30 pm »
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PR would probobly be about three votes.

I would say 6 or 7
The 2000 census for PR was 3,809 thousand, and the average CD had a population of 648 thousand. The 2000 census would almost certainly be the basis for any new state before 2008, so if PR became a state it would have 6 Representatives. If the US Virgin Islands were added to PR, the extra 109 thousand would not change the initial apportionment.
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« Reply #21 on: October 17, 2004, 03:29:34 pm »
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2012-2020

I took the 2000 census and the 2003 update from the census. If I project the growth between 2000 and 2003 to April 1, 2010 I get the following changes to Congressional apportionment.

AL -1 (8 EV)
AZ +1 (11 EV)
CA +2 (57 EV)
FL +2 (29 EV)
GA +1 (16 EV)
IL -1 (20 EV)
IA -1 (6 EV)
LA -1 (8 EV)
MA -1 (11 EV)
MO -1 (10 EV)
NV +1 (6 EV)
NY -2 (29 EV)
OH -2 (18 EV)
PA -1 (20 EV)
TX +3 (38 EV)
UT +1 (6 EV)

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« Reply #22 on: October 26, 2004, 06:22:37 am »
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I took the 2000 census and the 2003 update from the census. If I project the growth between 2000 and 2003 to April 1, 2010 I get the following changes to Congressional apportionment.

AL -1 (8 EV)
AZ +1 (11 EV)
CA +2 (57 EV)
FL +2 (29 EV)
GA +1 (16 EV)
IL -1 (20 EV)
IA -1 (6 EV)
LA -1 (8 EV)
MA -1 (11 EV)
MO -1 (10 EV)
NV +1 (6 EV)
NY -2 (29 EV)
OH -2 (18 EV)
PA -1 (20 EV)
TX +3 (38 EV)
UT +1 (6 EV)
I agree, except that New York would narrowly keep their 28th congressman ahead of California's 55th.

Also, Alabama could keep its 7th, and Minnesota could lose its 8th with a narrow shift. These latter two are interesting, because Minnesota will have about a CD's worth greater population, but could end up with the same, one more or two more representatives.
« Last Edit: October 26, 2004, 06:24:12 am by jimrtex »Logged
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« Reply #23 on: October 26, 2004, 08:44:46 am »
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2032-2040


It's scary to think that CA could hold almost 15% of the votes in the EC in another 30 years... I would really love to see the state broken up, for the benefit of the residents (I grew up in rural Nor Cal). Everything is run by SF and LA; there aren't enough votes in the rest of the state to overrule or even balance out their votes. [ /whining ]
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« Reply #24 on: October 26, 2004, 09:22:31 am »
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I think New Jersey is poised to gain an EV, perhapes as soon as the 2010 census.

South Carolina is also growing fast enough to gain an EV by 2010.

And, as was mentioned, Utah should also gain an EV in 2010.
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