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Author Topic: Future electoral votes?  (Read 20125 times)
jimrtex
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« on: October 16, 2004, 06:32:44 AM »

By their population they would be entitle to 6 CD's but new States have traditionally been given only one, so it's very hard to say how many Puerto Rico would have until the next apportionment.
Since 1840, 20 states have been admitted subsequent to a post-census apportionment (Kansas, Arizona, and New Mexico were included in the apportionment legislation immediately before their accession, and West Virginia took over the representation for the western part of Virginia).

13 states (FL, OR, NE, NV, CO, ND, MT, ID, WY, WA, UT, AK, and HI) were admitted with 1 representative, and kept that number after the next census.  The exceptions are Washington and Hawaii.  Washington had nearly quintupled in population in the decade before its admission.  Based on its 1950 population, Hawaii might have been entitled to a 2nd representative, but its population was less than 1.5 of the national average.  Relatively strong growth in the 1950s gave it the 2nd representative immediately after statehood.  Incidentally, the 1960 Hawaii population was just barely greater than North Dakota.  It was in 1970 that ND lost its 2nd representative.

6 states (TX, IA, WI, CA, MN, and SD) were admitted with 2 representatives.  Only Wisconsin increased its representation at the next census.  Several of these states were admitted towards the end of the decade, so the extra representative would have been based on an estimate of population.  Texas and California were admitted before a US census had been held.

1 state, Oklahoma, was admitted with 5 representatives, which increased to 8 at the next census.

So the precedent would appear to be give a new state its full entitlement of representatives.  An issue might be whether the House would revert back to 435 members at the next census as was done in 1960.   In 2000, this would have cost Georgia, Florida, California, and North Carolina one of their new representatives, but taken a representative away from Ohio and Iowa.
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jimrtex
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« Reply #1 on: October 26, 2004, 06:22:37 AM »
« Edited: October 26, 2004, 06:24:12 AM by jimrtex »

I took the 2000 census and the 2003 update from the census. If I project the growth between 2000 and 2003 to April 1, 2010 I get the following changes to Congressional apportionment.

AL -1 (8 EV)
AZ +1 (11 EV)
CA +2 (57 EV)
FL +2 (29 EV)
GA +1 (16 EV)
IL -1 (20 EV)
IA -1 (6 EV)
LA -1 (8 EV)
MA -1 (11 EV)
MO -1 (10 EV)
NV +1 (6 EV)
NY -2 (29 EV)
OH -2 (18 EV)
PA -1 (20 EV)
TX +3 (38 EV)
UT +1 (6 EV)
I agree, except that New York would narrowly keep their 28th congressman ahead of California's 55th.

Also, Alabama could keep its 7th, and Minnesota could lose its 8th with a narrow shift.  These latter two are interesting, because Minnesota will have about a CD's worth greater population, but could end up with the same, one more or two more representatives.
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jimrtex
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« Reply #2 on: October 30, 2004, 06:33:50 AM »

I agree, except that New York would narrowly keep their 28th congressman ahead of California's 55th.

Also, Alabama could keep its 7th, and Minnesota could lose its 8th with a narrow shift.  These latter two are interesting, because Minnesota will have about a CD's worth greater population, but could end up with the same, one more or two more representatives.


The last few seats I apportioned were:
432 - CA 55
433 - PA 18
434 - MN 8
435 - MI 15

The next in line were
NY 28
IL 19
AL 7

Then after a gap
CA 56
MD 9
OH 17
TX 36

It's pretty easy to move any of the last four out and the next three in. Before year's end, I expect the Census Bureau to release the July 1, 2004 estimates. I'll rework my projections at that point.
How did you project the 2010 population?

I used   

   p2010 = c2000 + (e2003 - c2000) * (10/3.25)

The census estimates are for July 1st, the census for April 1st, so there is 3.25 years between the census and the 2003 estimate.  If you use 3 instead of 3.25, it will increase the projected increase by 8.3%.  For California, this would amount to about 1% more people.
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jimrtex
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« Reply #3 on: October 30, 2004, 07:02:18 AM »

Didn't CA just barely recieve its extra EV in the last census?  I seem to remember a big deal being made that if it had missed, it would have been the first time ever (or in a long time).
Yes, it barely did.  Its population growth had somewhat slowed, but picked up some at the end of the decade (for the decade its growth was 13.8%, vs. 13.2% for the US as a whole).  Ordinarily, you would expect a states apportionment to increase by the relative difference between its growth, and that of the country as a whole.  For California, this would mean:

   53 * (1.138/1.132) = 53.28 (which would still round to 53).

But in 2000, California was entitled to slightly more than 53 representatives.  In effect, California in 1990 was part way to getting a 54th seat, so that it didn't need to gain as much.

Also, in 2000 the census bureau did a more complete count than was anticipated, so California may have had a larger population than had been estimated.

Finally, apportionment is based not only on a state's relative share of the US population, but its relative share compared to that of other states.  Arguably, California and North Carolina did not deserve their final seats in 2000 - but no other state could make a better case.
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jimrtex
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Marshall Islands


« Reply #4 on: November 02, 2004, 07:34:58 AM »

Your formula assumes a linear increase. I assume that the percentage increase is compounded like interest.
Fair enough.
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