Newsweek: Bush +2 among RV's

[Hegemon]

Bush 48% Kerry 46%, just reported on MSNBC.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/6260444/site/newsweek/

[Pollwatch99]

Bush 48% Kerry 46%, just reported on MSNBC.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/6260444/site/newsweek/

+6 among LV's

"Results based on likely voters (as opposed to all registered voters) give the incumbent the edge, with Bush-Cheney pulling 50 percent of the vote and Kerry-Edwards drawing 44 percent in a three-way race (Nader still gets 1 percent)"

Poll date 10/14-10/15  Post debate

[Giant Saguaro]

Some improvement from the last Newsweek poll, if I'm not mistaken, for Bush. I could be wrong on that, as after a while it's easy to get the polls are jumpbled up, especially when you get barages of them.

[agcatter]

What a horsesh**t poll!  Bush UP 6 with women and DOWN 4 with men!!

LMAO.  Who conducted this poll?  Bozo the clown??

[Whacker77]

I think the most interesting line had to do with the gender breakdown.  Bush leads among women 49-43 yet trails among men.  Based on the past, it's very hard to believe that Bush is behind among men.  I just can't believe that.

[agcatter]

The gender results in this poll are hilarious!!!! 

Wake me up when a real poll is released.

[Giant Saguaro]

I think the most interesting line had to do with the gender breakdown.  Bush leads among women 49-43 yet trails among men.  Based on the past, it's very hard to believe that Bush is behind among men.  I just can't believe that.

Oh well good grief, toss this thing then. How did they manage to come up with that?!

[Volrath50]

Worst. Poll. Ever.

I think Zogby's Internet Adventure might just be more accurate than this thing.

[Pollwatch99]

I think the most interesting line had to do with the gender breakdown.  Bush leads among women 49-43 yet trails among men.  Based on the past, it's very hard to believe that Bush is behind among men.  I just can't believe that.

Oh well good grief, toss this thing then. How did they manage to come up with that?!

Don't underestimate the Cheney's daughter is a lesbian remark.  It offended woman far more than men.  It will settle down.  

However, the poll is a gift.  Most polls are reported with LV's; Bush+6 helps build some media reporting around Bush getting momentum.

[agcatter]

Possible that the Cheney daughter remark did have an effect on women - however, not to that extent and the Kerry up 4 with men is just incredible.

I can't wait for Vorlen's comment on this one.

[The Vorlon]

Possible that the Cheney daughter remark did have an effect on women - however, not to that extent and the Kerry up 4 with men is just incredible.

I can't wait for Vorlen's comment on this one.

I have been on this board for 7 months, and for seven months I have been saying the Newsweek poll is a pile of %^&#.

Today my take on the Newsweek poll is that is is a pile of $%$#$

There really is not a lot to say beyond that.

One of the nice things about the Atlas forum is that, however partisan folks might be, just about everybody is grounded in some reality.

A few days back when a MInnesota Star poll came out with Kerry up 5% in Minnesota, everybody, dem, rep, indy instantly goes... We'll this poll is a piece of crap and debate turned to if the best way to proceed with it was to entirely toss it out, or to speculate if it's typical 5%-10% structural bias actual meant the state was very close...

Now Newsweek comes out showing Bush +2 / +6 with a lead among Women, but trailing among men....

Let's all come together in bi-partisan rationality and say that Newsweek is just a bad poll ? (or to be fair a poll that has stipulations and contraints placed on it by the sponsor making it impossible to do a good poll)

Up among women, down among men.. Makes me miss Zogby (or..maybe not.. but pretty bad)

BTW, today's Zogby had a dem/rep/indy breakout that was... sane...

Hey... It's one poll...

Throw another log on the old fire

[agcatter]

Vorlon, you did say the Battleground is out tomorrow?

[The Vorlon]

Vorlon, you did say the Battleground is out tomorrow?

Sunday at +/- 5.00 pm if they hold to schedule.

Battleground is a good poll.

[agcatter]

What's your prediction on what their aided ballot will look like?

[Pollwatch99]

Possible that the Cheney daughter remark did have an effect on women - however, not to that extent and the Kerry up 4 with men is just incredible.

I can't wait for Vorlen's comment on this one.

I have been on this board for 7 months, and for seven months I have been saying the Newsweek poll is a pile of %^&#.

Today my take on the Newsweek poll is that is is a pile of $%$#$

There really is not a lot to say beyond that.

One of the nice things about the Atlas forum is that, however partisan folks might be, just about everybody is grounded in some reality.

A few days back when a MInnesota Star poll came out with Kerry up 5% in Minnesota, everybody, dem, rep, indy instantly goes... We'll this poll is a piece of crap and debate turned to if the best way to proceed with it was to entirely toss it out, or to speculate if it's typical 5%-10% structural bias actual meant the state was very close...

Now Newsweek comes out showing Bush +2 / +6 with a lead among Women, but trailing among men....

Let's all come together in bi-partisan rationality and say that Newsweek is just a bad poll ? (or to be fair a poll that has stipulations and contraints placed on it by the sponsor making it impossible to do a good poll)

Up among women, down among men.. Makes me miss Zogby (or..maybe not.. but pretty bad)

BTW, today's Zogby had a dem/rep/indy breakout that was... sane...

Hey... It's one poll...

Throw another log on the old fire

I think we can all agree it's not a good poll.  It helps media spin for Bush though and the Cheney remark impacts woman more than men ( but no way plus 6 and unlikely to last)

[The Vorlon]

What's your prediction on what their aided ballot will look like?

Unaided will be Bush +3-5% I expect.

Aided, likely a point or so lower

[agcatter]

Sounds sane.  BTW, why does Battleground do an unaided ballot number?  Is it a way to measure intensity of support?

[Giant Saguaro]

Personally, I like the unaided ballot. That really lets you know who comes to mind for people, if anyone, and maybe what level of thought they've given it. Then I like to see how it corresponds to the aided ballot. Telling, IMO. Might serve as a solid job approval gauge too, don't know.

[Pollwatch99]

What's your prediction on what their aided ballot will look like?

Unaided will be Bush +3-5% I expect.

Aided, likely a point or so lower

I've noticed most generic congressional ballots favor democrats over republicans but it doesn't reflect actual voting.  Are unaided or generic of any use?

[Shira]

Newsweek could be a bad poll but it is clear that in last two days or so Kerry lost "something" and Bush gained "something"

[The Vorlon]

What's your prediction on what their aided ballot will look like?

Unaided will be Bush +3-5% I expect.

Aided, likely a point or so lower

I've noticed most generic congressional ballots favor democrats over republicans but it doesn't reflect actual voting.  Are unaided or generic of any use?

The "Generic Congressional Ballot" is pretty useless.

Some firms ask is essentially as a proxy for leaned party ID, where it "kinda" works

The Dems have been winning the "Generic Congressional Ballot" for 50 years.

The GOP has controlled the House for a decade and I don't think anybody expects that to change in November.

It's a question pollsters put in because their sponsors want them to

[The Vorlon]

Newsweek could be a bad poll but it is clear that in last two days or so Kerry lost "something" and Bush gained "something"

I think mainly what you are seeing is a change in energy levels among the voters.  At the RV level it's pretty stable and pretty close.

On November 2nd this thing, in large measure looks like it is going to come down to turnout, and turnout lives and dies on the energy of hundreds of thousands of volunteers.

The GOP faithful were really down after debate #1 - the Dems were sky high.

Cheney's modest victory over Edwards, while pretty meaningless in the big picture (I projected a 0.3% bump for Bush lasting 90 minutes or so) it gave the GOP a "victory" that they needed.

The 2nd Debate was something pretty close to a draw, as was the 3rd devate.

With Kerry's attack/compliment/remark regarding Cheney's daughter the GOP, if only modestly, has won the post 3rd debate spin.

GOPers are also starting to take stock of the situation objectively and even though Kerry clearly made up ground over the debates, Bush is no worse than tied, and likely modestly still up.



There are currently 19 post first debate polls listed over at RealClear Politics.

Bush has been ahead in 13 of them, and tied in 4 more.

Kerry has been ahead in 2.

The weight of polling data, both Nationally and at the State level is that Bush has a modest lead. - No "objective" person could spin the totality of these 19 post debate polls as a Kerry "lead"

"Close" yes, Lead no

Bush also, in terms of how the various states interlock to get to 269 EVs has more combinations and greater probabilities than Kerry.  The math modestly favors Bush.

The race is very close, and 18 days in politics is about 3 lifetimes.

After being a bit shellshocked after the first debate, GOPers have calmed down and are saying, "We are still up - not as much as we were, but we are still up"

Dems, after the massive sugar high of the first debate are saying "We are still down, not as much as we were, but we are still down"

Reality is settling in for both sides, and both realize they have a lot of work to do and only 18 days to get it done.

[Sam Spade]

I am seriously amused by the fact Newsweek says a +6 margin among LV and a +2 margin among RV is "too close to call".

Even though their poll is crap, if this ain't proof of a liberal and biased media, I don't know what is.

[Pollwatch99]

I am seriously amused by the fact Newsweek says a +6 margin among LV and a +2 margin among RV is "too close to call".

Even though their poll is crap, if this ain't proof of a liberal and biased media, I don't know what is.

Amen

[ATFFL]

Attention fellow Blue avatared friends:

We are supposed to be partisan hacks.  Please stop acting rational and intelligent and throwing out bad polls when they say good news.  Embrace them when they are good and chuck them when they are bad.  That is what is expected of us.

In other words, this is the bestest poll evar!