If Corzine wins, should the NJ GOP disband?

[Lief 🗽]

Yes.

[East Coast Republican]

Then the Dems would get 4 more House seats and various other Assembly Seats.

So, no.

[Lunar]

Or at least the strategists should be fired.




but some state parties can't help but sabotage themselves when they have powerful conservative constituencies that cannot nominate electable moderate candidates, especially as the modern GOP finds itself in it's 26 year low for partisan self-identification and often prefers closed primaries to open ones [at least in CA]...    

I think Lonegan's candidacy really forced Christie to the right when he had a fairly blank political slate on which he could declare any position he wanted and thus ascribe himself to be slightly right of center (picking some issues, like property taxes, to advocate radical reform in) instead of a mainstream conservative.   Hell, is it any surprise McDonnell is doing so well when he has been able to avoid arguing how conservative he is in a preliminary battle?  Or maybe it's just the fact that VA is more centrist and both races are becoming debates on the national Democratic Party with inverse results

 I can't really think of any Democratic state party equivalent...some would argue Artur Davis is gonna end up being the "wrong fit" for Alabama, but that's a relatively new occurrence and the argument against him is hardly ideological.    Any ideas for equivalence among Democrats?  

[Lunar]

Or at least the strategists should be fired.




but some state parties can't help but sabotage themselves when they have powerful conservative constituencies that cannot nominate electable moderate candidates, especially as the modern GOP finds itself in it's 26 year low for partisan self-identification and often prefers closed primaries to open ones [at least in CA]...    

I think Lonegan's candidacy really forced Christie to the right when he had a fairly blank political slate on which he could declare any position he wanted and thus ascribe himself to be slightly right of center (picking some issues, like property taxes, to advocate radical reform in) instead of a mainstream conservative.   Hell, is it any surprise McDonnell is doing so well when he has been able to avoid arguing how conservative he is in a preliminary battle?  Or maybe it's just the fact that VA is more centrist and both races are becoming debates on the national Democratic Party with inverse results

 I can't really think of any Democratic state party equivalent...some would argue Artur Davis is gonna end up being the "wrong fit" for Alabama, but that's a relatively new occurrence and the argument against him is hardly ideological.    Any ideas for equivalence among Democrats?  

to be honest I don't really know what any of this means but I will leave my whimsical rambling be

[East Coast Republican]

I disagree with the dailykos metaphor of Lucy pulling the football away from Charlie Brown.  I never expected or hoped for a Republican win in New Jersey until this year.  Anybody who follow politics at least somewhat closely with an open mind knew that the Republicans had no real legitimate shot in 2004, 2006 or 2008. 

As I've said before, if Governor Corzine wins this it's because of a fatal split caused by Daggett, not because Christie is too Conservative.  Still, Christie should have defined himself as someone who would cut taxes.  He probably should have come out with some sort of plan as well. 

If Christie loses, it's because he didn't do a great job of defining himself.  In the case that he loses, I do agree with you that the top GOP Strategists in NJ should be fired and an overhaul of general GOP strategy for top races in NJ needs to occur.

[Mechaman]

Or at least the strategists should be fired.




but some state parties can't help but sabotage themselves when they have powerful conservative constituencies that cannot nominate electable moderate candidates, especially as the modern GOP finds itself in it's 26 year low for partisan self-identification and often prefers closed primaries to open ones [at least in CA]...    

I think Lonegan's candidacy really forced Christie to the right when he had a fairly blank political slate on which he could declare any position he wanted and thus ascribe himself to be slightly right of center (picking some issues, like property taxes, to advocate radical reform in) instead of a mainstream conservative.   Hell, is it any surprise McDonnell is doing so well when he has been able to avoid arguing how conservative he is in a preliminary battle?  Or maybe it's just the fact that VA is more centrist and both races are becoming debates on the national Democratic Party with inverse results

 I can't really think of any Democratic state party equivalent...some would argue Artur Davis is gonna end up being the "wrong fit" for Alabama, but that's a relatively new occurrence and the argument against him is hardly ideological.    Any ideas for equivalence among Democrats?  

to be honest I don't really know what any of this means but I will leave my whimsical rambling be

This is actually a really good analysis, even if it is "rambling". I personally hate using that word.

[Meeker]

Yea. If they can't win this one they need to pack it in and head home.

[Eraserhead]

Yes. Sadly, they probably will continue to exist on some level.

[Lunar]

I disagree with the dailykos metaphor of Lucy pulling the football away from Charlie Brown.

Is that a DKos analogy?  I can't remember where I picked it up, I think it's pretty common in the blogosphere generally.  The GOP does have a history of high hopes which collapsed towards election day in New Jersey, but never before have they had such factual reasons for these hopes.  Largely, I believe, they have hopes based on strong polling early on in elections, which is due to 1- Democrats in NJ not liking their politicians, but "coming home" from Undecided on election day and 2- The media markets in New Jersey are really f'n expensive, there is no "New Jersey" political market, any state-wide candidate has to run ads in New York and Phillie....this means that the two general election candidates are largely undefined in any political race until towards the end, which means the Democrats tend to get late boosts in undecideds once the undecideds in New Jersey remember they are closer to Democrats than Republicans.... the $ per ad view in New Jersey is the highest of any state because of how many other people you have to pay to see those ads for every person in NJ who sees them (and upscale markets have more disposable income resulting in higher advertising costs too).  

but the dynamics of this race are different than past races, with a third party and a deeply unpopular Republican



 

If Christie loses, it's because he didn't do a great job of defining himself.  In the case that he loses, I do agree with you that the top GOP Strategists in NJ should be fired and an overhaul of general GOP strategy for top races in NJ needs to occur.

Oh I agree.  If Christie loses it's because he ran a [relative to Corzine] horrible campaign, there's no reason a mainstream conservative shouldn't be able to defeat an incumbent as unpopular as Corzine, just like I'm pretty sure a candidate more conservative than Guiliani could cream Paterson in the even more Democratic New York, with or without a third party centrist candidate also in the mix.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Nah, New Jersey still has 21 counties, and Republicans have control of the Freeholder (legislative) Boards of about half. And even with Christie teetering, Republicans still look good to otherwise have their best year there in about a decade. They might even win a freeholder seat in Bergen! (gasp)

statewide, though... well, it's still a D+7 state, you know?

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

I want to add a little something to Lunar's comments.

New Jersey indeed has a frustrating small-but-overly-vocal brigade of pissed off superconservatives.  They're not mainstream conservatives, but a unique breed to New Jersey—those of you who know Scott Garrett's record know what I'm talking about.  Local pundits know them as the "Mountain Men," precisely because they are almost uniformly male and come from just a handful of counties in the (relatively) mountainous, safely Republican areas of Northern New Jersey.  They care about fiscal issues way more than social ones, though they're still vehemently anti-abortion and gay rights.  Pat Toomey would fit in well with them.

They've been pissed off since Whitman, and weren't even happy before she came on the scene.  They lack the power to elect anyone statewide, even in a GOP primary, and they wind up going Republican in the voting booth in November, even for an "unacceptable" "liberal" (read: pretty mainstream) Republican like Doug Forrester.  It's just that along the way, they tear into the GOP nominee at every opportunity, causing constant bad press and perpetual news stories about Republicans being upset at their nominee.

The main culprit here is conservative consultant Rick Shaftan.  Mention his name in the NJ GOP headquarters, and they'll give you a frustrated sigh (seriously, I've done it!).  Shaftan was the brains behind Lonegan; he was the muscle behind the conservative primary challenge to Tom Kean Jr. in 2006.  The party has tried to give him a voice behind the scenes, but that's not his style—he wants to cause trouble.  His way or the highway.  You know the type.

He's a little Napoleon, but he's good at rallying the 10% who are open to his message.

And he's a cancer on the New Jersey GOP.  He doesn't force statewide candidates to the right, but in an effort to keep Shaftanites from openly sabotaging campaigns, statewide candidates will often resist making common sense concessions to the middle.  Christie has been very good at managing Shaftan, despite the outburst over his Lt. Governor choice (CAUSE OH MY GOD SHE'S PRO CHOICE).

You can blame the left-leaning middle for the recent shift in support—these voters were mildly against Corzine at the outset of the campaign, enough to tell pollsters that they were supporting Christie (or NOTA).  Corzine's early numbers were horrific amongst members of his own party—some early polls had him between 65 and 70 percent.  The usual line—Christie equals Bush—was a marked failure amongst these voters, and they stayed with Christie (or stayed undecided) throughout the summer.  Corzine was especially having trouble convincing women, who were voting almost identically as their male counterparts—a death sentence for a northeastern Democrat who should be able to open up a damn near 20 point gender gap.

I said, back when Corzine was down 10, that he needed an actual wedge issue to make his move.  Something to fire up the left.  He found that issue about a month ago: the Christie health care plan.

The idea behind the plan sounded harmless enough—reduce the cost for employers not currently offering coverage by allowing them to buy out-of-state policies.  Corzine framed this perfectly for the voters he needed to win over, morphing the issue into Christie denying women coverage for mammogram screening.

The whole thing is a bit of a stretch, and considering Christie's family has a history of breast cancer, I didn't think it'd be effective.  But Democrat women ate it up, and jumped ship like nobody's business.  Corzine's numbers among Democrats are up markedly since the summer, and even more notably, his numbers among Democratic-leaning women are up even more.

(Side note: This is precisely the reason why Christie was so hesitant to put plans out there for the news media to see.  Every issue is gone over with a fine-tooth comb, and anything that can be spun into something will be.)

Surely, the Christie scandals have taken their toll, as has the fact that Christie is getting outspent by Corzine like you wouldn't believe.  But a look at the numbers suggests that the mammogram issue, silly as it may sound, was what moved Corzine's numbers so strongly.  To use a football analogy, it was a great on-side kick that resulted in his team being down by 1 point.

But even though the scoreboard looks close, the last few moments of the campaign are challenging.  He needs another on-side kick here.  There are only a few weeks left in the campaign, and if people were voting today, Corzine would get virtually no share of the undecideds.  That's unlikely to change, considering the type of campaign Corzine is waging and needs to continue to wage.

[Rowan]

Regardless of who wins this year, we'll be saying hello to Governor Booker in 2013 anyway.

[fezzyfestoon]

Regardless of who wins this year, we'll be saying hello to Governor Booker in 2013 anyway.

One can only hope we'll be that fortunate.  He'd be like having filet mignon and wine after decades of moldy bread and dirty water.

[DownWithTheLeft]

Regardless of who wins this year, we'll be saying hello to Governor Booker in 2013 anyway.

One can only hope we'll be that fortunate.  He'd be like having filet mignon and wine after decades of moldy bread and dirty water.

I used to think that, but Booker seems now to be a lot of hype and not a lot of action

[DownWithTheLeft]

Nah, New Jersey still has 21 counties, and Republicans have control of the Freeholder (legislative) Boards of about half. And even with Christie teetering, Republicans still look good to otherwise have their best year there in about a decade. They might even win a freeholder seat in Bergen! (gasp)

My work is for LD36 and not BCRO, but I do have a lot of interaction with them.  I must say, they are easily one of the most pathethic organizations ever.  First (actually I forget which was first), we give up the chance to easily beat McNerney by electing Caliguire and his slate over the Donovan one.  Then, we reward freeholder loser Bob Yudin with the county chairmanship, a position which he has been awful with.  Then, we cannot beat freakin Bernadette "28%" McPherson in the freeholder race.  Now, we have two candidates who I believe are running seperate campaigns.  What makes you think we'll actually win one?

[fezzyfestoon]

Regardless of who wins this year, we'll be saying hello to Governor Booker in 2013 anyway.

One can only hope we'll be that fortunate.  He'd be like having filet mignon and wine after decades of moldy bread and dirty water.

I used to think that, but Booker seems now to be a lot of hype and not a lot of action

Just off the top of my head, unemployment is only up about 1% compared to 5 years ago, crime is down by absurd amounts, corruption is disappearing, neighborhood revitalization is still going strong, strength of community is actually evident, investment is returning, people are returning after losses of almost 200,000 over the course of 5 straight decades of losses.  That's enough results for me.

[DownWithTheLeft]

I go through Newark every day, numbers are numbers but the quality of living is not any better.  I also don't think that corruption busting is enough to run on, its not giving Christie a run-away victory.  I don't think I would vote Booker against Christie, against someone like Kean Jr. I probably would though

[fezzyfestoon]

I go through Newark every day, numbers are numbers but the quality of living is not any better.  I also don't think that corruption busting is enough to run on, its not giving Christie a run-away victory.  I don't think I would vote Booker against Christie, against someone like Kean Jr. I probably would though

That's because Christie's not actually running, he's meandering about hoping for the best.

Booker's actions aren't like flicking a lightswitch, it's going to take time.  Especially now with the recession.  He's set the city on the right track finally and it's making huge gains, however minute they seem on the surface.  Reversing decades of ingrained corruption and stagnation is not easy.  The wheels of real change have been set in motion and it's already paying off after only 3 years.  And he's clearly committed to what he's doing, not personally motivated like every New Jersey politician I can think of.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Nah, New Jersey still has 21 counties, and Republicans have control of the Freeholder (legislative) Boards of about half. And even with Christie teetering, Republicans still look good to otherwise have their best year there in about a decade. They might even win a freeholder seat in Bergen! (gasp)

My work is for LD36 and not BCRO, but I do have a lot of interaction with them.  I must say, they are easily one of the most pathethic organizations ever.  First (actually I forget which was first), we give up the chance to easily beat McNerney by electing Caliguire and his slate over the Donovan one.  Then, we reward freeholder loser Bob Yudin with the county chairmanship, a position which he has been awful with.  Then, we cannot beat freakin Bernadette "28%" McPherson in the freeholder race.  Now, we have two candidates who I believe are running seperate campaigns.  What makes you think we'll actually win one?

LOL, yes, the BRCO is pathetic.  But even the Camden County and Middlesex GOP have won something by accident in the past. 

And I said "might," because it probably won't happen.  But it could.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I think the economy, was the big story in the summer when we transitioned from a manufacturing sector to a high tech.  But, now on the part of Philly, Newark and Dtw, people have succumbed to that realization and are making do with that fact. It won't be republican ace in the hole like they thought it would play come 2010.

I don't think the GOP should disband in 2009, it should wait and see if there is another opportunity like it seized on in 2009 and see if it can take hold.  But this was one of their better shots, Dems have a lot of talent in the House that can take on republicans statewide in NJ.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Booker's best quality is that he was independent of the Sharpe James machine, which had figuratively been raping Newark for decades.  With James at the helm, decay was acceptable so long as the city's developers kept his pockets lined.

I like Booker lots, but let's be honest—his appeal comes mostly from how awful his predecessor was.  The Booker turn around happened almost instantly.

[YankeeFan007]

No, because there might come a day when the Republicans become a party that supports and represents the people.  There needs to be a party that questions the policies of the Democrats in this state.  The Republicans provide that for us.  Unfortunately, they are a party filled with polarizing morons that support programs like Beck, Hannity and Limaugh. 

[JohnnyLongtorso]

How about Dick Codey? Any chance of him running in 2013?

[Associate Justice PiT]

     No, but the NJ Democratic Party should disband for facilitating the horror of a Corzine re-election.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

How about Dick Codey? Any chance of him running in 2013?

Codey is finished politically.  Though he will be trying to mount a comeback bid for Essex County Executive, so that should be entertaining enough.