Time Bush 48 Kerry 46 (LV 10/14-10/15) internals impossible to decipher

[Pollwatch99]

http://www.time.com/time/election2004/article/0,18471,725047,00.html

this originally showed up on relclearpolitics.com with the link below

www.realclearpolitics.com/Polls/Time-Trended_Data-2004-10-.pdf

Was originally posted as Bush 45 Kerry 45 Nader 4 on realclearpolitics.com

Reposted as Bush 48  Kerry 46 Nader 3

Some internals suggest Bush 47 Kerry 47 Nader 0

Pick your choice; tie, small Bush lead, or throw it away because internals
  are so confusing

[Sam Spade]

Is this an old poll or a new poll?  I don't see it on the top of their page.

[Pollwatch99]

Is this an old poll or a new poll?  I don't see it on the top of their page.

It is headlined on www.realclearpolitics.com.  It is post debate.

[Alcon]

The site owner removed it for some reason.

[Friar]

There is a new Time poll

Bush at 48
Kerry at 46

No internals given yet. I just read it on Time's site.

[J. J.]

Is this the same poll that CNN runs; there numbers were the same.

[Giant Saguaro]

It's on RCP as well - 48-46, Bush. The 45-45 deal I don't know, but maybe they re-structured it because the party ID reported looks off to me.

[Alcon]

In the PDF write-up, I see for LV's including leaners:

Kerry 46%
Bush 46%
Nader 1%

I'm confused.

[Pollwatch99]

It's on RCP as well - 48-46, Bush. The 45-45 deal I don't know, but maybe they re-structured it because the party ID reported looks off to me.

I caught the original link from RCP where they reported 45, 45%.   Modified the orginal post so those more qualified could look at internals.

[Pollwatch99]

In the PDF write-up, I see for LV's including leaners:

Kerry 46%
Bush 46%
Nader 1%

I'm confused.

Confused also.  Maybe Vorlon or others can help decipher

[agcatter]

Another crap poll.

[The Vorlon]

Oh Goody Goody Goody... !

Another rushed to press snapshot poll with marginal methodolgy from a shakely pollster with a bad track record working for a media outlet I don't trust !

I can hardly contain my self I am so bursting with joy !


I have looked it over and...

um...

ah....

hmmm...

yikes...

ahhhhh.

eeek...

I'll get back to you... Ok

Between this and Newsweek we can have a nice little fire, roast a few Hotdogs and Marshmallows.

Beyond this, these two are of little value

[agcatter]

Bring on the Battleground Poll so we can find out where this race REALLY stands.

[Whacker77]

That's what I'm talking about.  Battleground can shed some light on all of these fliskering bulbs.  That's unless I don't like the numbers!!!

[Sam Spade]

Simply put, I don't trust any of these rush polls that come out so quickly after an big event.  I do listen to the tracking polls, mainly because they take most of this into account anyway.

I'll start listening to the snapshot polls again about the middle of next week or so.

[agcatter]

Well, if anyone wants to try and analyze the internals of this poll I'll be glad to listen.  I sure as hell can't figure them out.

[The Vorlon]

Well, if anyone wants to try and analyze the internals of this poll I'll be glad to listen.  I sure as hell can't figure them out.

I'm with you on this one..

Anybody wanna explain this one to me ?

[Alcon]

This wouldn't even make sense if the topline was, say, inbetween the results. But when it's either Tie or Bush +1 among LV's in all categories AND RV's...what exactly are they polling? Or are they inventing a new sort of voter - unregistered by likely to vote?

[agcatter]

I think Time and Newsweek were in a race to see who could get the FIRST post debate poll out.  Speed was what was important.  Whether the poll actually made any sense or not was, shall we say, not a priority.

Obviously, Newsweek won the race by two full lengths.  I mean, two full hours.

[The Vorlon]

I think Time and Newsweek were in a race to see who could get the FIRST post debate poll out.  Speed was what was important.  Whether the poll actually made any sense or not was, shall we say, not a priority.

Obviously, Newsweek won the race by two full lengths.  I mean, two full hours.

Fire up the old BBQ... let's have a hotdog roast.  Pass the Marshmallows, get me another beer.

'Bout all these two are good for