NJ: Eagleton-Rutgers: Corzine now 3 points ahead of Christie (user search)
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  NJ: Eagleton-Rutgers: Corzine now 3 points ahead of Christie (search mode)
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Author Topic: NJ: Eagleton-Rutgers: Corzine now 3 points ahead of Christie  (Read 1763 times)
Small Business Owner of Any Repute
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« on: October 22, 2009, 07:46:55 AM »

They have a pretty bad track record FWIW. And Daggett at 20% is just absurd.

They don't have any track record so far as I'm concerned.  This is Eagleton's first foray into polling in a long while, now under new management after previous (partisan) controversy.
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Small Business Owner of Any Repute
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« Reply #1 on: October 22, 2009, 11:57:00 AM »

They have a pretty bad track record FWIW. And Daggett at 20% is just absurd.

They don't have any track record so far as I'm concerned.  This is Eagleton's first foray into polling in a long while, now under new management after previous (partisan) controversy.

Partisan ? How so ? But not for the Democrats, I guess ?

FTR: They had Corzine winning by 6 in 2005 (he won by 10/11) and Menendez by 4 (he won by 9.

They always had many undecideds, not so in this poll ...

Actually, yeah, it was over Eagleton hiring a Democratic activist to run the polling.  One of the political science teachers resigned over it.  I found this searching at PolitickerNJ:

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The new guy running things at Eagleton is a Democrat too—and the former Director of the University of Iowa Hawkeye poll.
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Small Business Owner of Any Repute
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« Reply #2 on: October 23, 2009, 10:46:47 AM »

FWIW, the Eagleton poll also inexplicably decides to rotate Daggett into the choices so he appears something other than last.  It seems like such a basic "do not do" that I'm surprised an otherwise reputable pollster would do it.

The crosstabs show that Christie voters have been following the campaign more closely than Corzine/Daggett voters, that virtually no Daggett voters have an excellent (0%) or good view (6%) of the legislature (which will impact Assembly races),  41% of voters give Corzine a "poor" rating on his time as Governor, 69% think the state is on the "wrong track," that Corzine actually comes in third in the exurbs and Christie comes in third in the urban areas, and that the voters who say they're voting for Daggett have Christie as a second choice (34–28).

A look at the undecideds:
Corzine is 5:2 unfavorable among undecided voters (Christie is net favorable by 3:2 amongst this subset).  The most important issue to undecideds is "taxes," said by a whopping 70%.  And regardless of their top issue, undecideds believe by 2:1 that Chris Christie would be better at solving their top issue than Jon Corzine.

If Corzine wins this, all logic will have been thrown out the window.
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