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Author Topic: PPP: Obama beats all Republicans  (Read 1358 times)
Tender Branson
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« on: October 22, 2009, 02:53:09 pm »
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Obama vs. Huckabee: 47-43
Obama vs. Romney: 48-40
Obama vs. Palin: 52-40
Obama vs. Pawlenty: 50-30

PPP conducted a national survey of 766 registered voters from October 16th to 19th. The surveys margin of error is +/-3.5%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_National_1022424.pdf
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« Reply #1 on: October 22, 2009, 03:31:18 pm »
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Obama vs. Huckabee: 47-43


Wow
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DariusNJ
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« Reply #2 on: October 22, 2009, 03:34:03 pm »
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This poll also had Obama approval at 51-43.
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« Reply #3 on: October 22, 2009, 03:36:47 pm »
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PPP's polling has always had Huckabee close to Obama.
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« Reply #4 on: October 22, 2009, 05:28:56 pm »
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PPP's polling has always had Huckabee close to Obama.


You mean closer than all of the others.
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« Reply #5 on: October 22, 2009, 05:32:05 pm »
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Huckabee polls better than the others in the Midwest and the South.
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YankeeFan007
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« Reply #6 on: October 22, 2009, 06:07:15 pm »
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Yes, I bet the Democrats would love another Republican who lacks knowledge in economics.  Let's be honest.  The next election is going to be about the state of the economy.  Huckabee's strength lies in christian values vote.  However, when the economy is struggling people seem to put religion in the back of their mind. 
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« Reply #7 on: October 24, 2009, 02:41:55 pm »
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Obama vs. Huckabee: 47-43
Obama vs. Romney: 48-40
Obama vs. Palin: 52-40
Obama vs. Pawlenty: 50-30

PPP conducted a national survey of 766 registered voters from October 16th to 19th. The surveys margin of error is +/-3.5%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_National_1022424.pdf

Ignore the part that does not respond or give a "don't know/other" response, and the proportions go to

Obama vs. Huckabee: 47-43 52.2 - 47.8 (looks much like 2008)
Obama vs. Romney: 48-40  54.5 - 45.5  (Bush 1988)
Obama vs. Palin: 52-40  56.5 - 43.5 (Eisenhower 1956)
Obama vs. Pawlenty: 50-30 62.5 - 37.5 (LBJ 1964)

Obama would probably defeat Mike Huckabee by winning the same states that Obama won in 2008 while adding Missouri and Arizona and making Montana and the Dakotas very shaky (but those three states yield only nine electoral votes). Huckabee would do nothing to cut into the Blue Firewall, but he might gain in the southern US in states that McCain won. That could be the best electoral result imaginable for the GOP, and it would still be a loss.

Romney would probably cut slightly into Obama's large wins in the Blue Firewall but at the risk of making the South shaky. He might swing Indiana and NE-02 but at the expense of making states like Tennessee, Georgia, and Kentucky shaky. He has no chance to win either Massachusetts or Michigan. In the best scenario for him he would force Obama to participate in a truly-national campaign instead of working on margins in a few "battleground" states  in a polarized country as Obama did in 2008, which would be a good thing for America. 

Palin is of course a political disaster. Economic realities could trump cultural resentments in 2012, and she can win only if she can unify those against Obama. If Obama succeeds in getting economic improvements in the areas that Palin declared the "Real America", then she loses in a landslide reminiscent of 1984.

I find it hard to believe that Pawlenty would get a McGovern-like result; the low polling for him may better reflect that he isn't well known. Where he is best known (Minnesota) he loses.   


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« Reply #8 on: October 24, 2009, 02:44:37 pm »
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Yes, I bet the Democrats would love another Republican who lacks knowledge in economics.  Let's be honest.  The next election is going to be about the state of the economy.  Huckabee's strength lies in christian values vote.  However, when the economy is struggling people seem to put religion in the back of their mind. 

We would hope that would be the case. But with the current GOP base, I'm not so sure. If we are still in the dumps economically in 2012, Romney should be the nominee. I don't want another race about the economy to occur where neither candidate knows anything about it.
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« Reply #9 on: October 24, 2009, 08:17:13 pm »
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« Reply #10 on: October 24, 2009, 08:19:58 pm »
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Obama vs. Pawlenty: 50-30

Wow, that's Pawlenty of a lead.
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« Reply #11 on: October 24, 2009, 09:23:28 pm »
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Obama vs. Pawlenty: 50-30

Wow, that's Pawlenty of a lead.

He's not well known at all, much of that 20% undecided would go for him. He'd get the same result as Romney, maybe slightly lower.
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« Reply #12 on: October 24, 2009, 09:32:33 pm »
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Obama vs. Pawlenty: 50-30

Wow, that's Pawlenty of a lead.

He's not well known at all, much of that 20% undecided would go for him. He'd get the same result as Romney, maybe slightly lower.

I too expected it to be name recognition; he is less known than any of the others. Without that I doubt that he would be doing so badly.
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Clearly the solution is to privatize presidential elections.

So, in less than four years, get excited for the 2016 MetLife Financial U Pick The Prez Extravaganza. If you tweet a picture of your completed ballot with the hashtag #ivoted, you could win a trip for two to the inauguration or an iTunes gift card.
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