Huckabee against President Obama

[Jasengle]

well post Maps Please

[pbrower2a]

Obama 53, Huckabee 46:

Huckabee win 10% or more
Huckabee win 5% - 9.9%
Huckabee win up to 4.9%


Obama win 10% or more
Obama win 5% - 9.9%
Obama win up to 4.9%

This is a baseline for demographic trends and the reversal of the Favorite Son effect in Arizona.  This is the assumption that the only change is what one can expect with Obama appealing to the same sorts of people and failing to reach voters who voted against him in 2008 for reasons other than that John McCain is associated with Arizona.

Huckabee does about as well as did Mike Dukakis in 1988, but has lost little that McCain didn't. Obama, a master of exploiting close margins, still can't convince some of the demographic groups who voted for Clinton in 1992 and 1996 to vote for him, and thus Obama falls short of 400 electoral votes.

Obama 55, Huckabee 44:

Huckabee win 10% or more
Huckabee win 5% - 9.9%
Huckabee win up to 4.9%


Obama win 10% or more
Obama win 5% - 9.9%
Obama win up to 4.9%


Obama cuts significantly into the Clinton-but-not-Obama voters of 2008, but not enough to make a difference in the South except to make Georgia a tossup. The Dakotas and NE-01 (eastern Nebraska except for Greater Omaha) flip. It is conceivable that Obama could win three million more votes in 2012 and garner only 31 more electoral votes before allowances for reapportionment (a bunch of states that voted for him in 2008 -- including California -- are likely to lose electoral votes).

The margin of votes is about that of Eisenhower against Stevenson in 1952 or 1956. The electoral vote margin is about that of George Herbert Walker Bush in 1988. Obama has maxed out his possible support in the Blue Firewall,  so any electoral gains that he makes beyond this point are in hard-core GOP territory by recent standards.


Obama 57, Huckabee 42:

Huckabee win 10% or more
Huckabee win 5% - 9.9%
Huckabee win up to 4.9%


Obama win 10% or more
Obama win 5% - 9.9%
Obama win up to 4.9%

This is the brink of electoral disaster for the GOP. At this point Huckabee wins only 50 electoral votes... to get to this level he must have run a lackluster campaign against a strong incumbent. Obama is winning Florida by about 8% and losing Kansas by about 4%; graft Kansas onto Florida and you have Texas.

Obama has won the Clinton-but-not Obama vote except in Arkansas, which at this point Huckabee barely wins as a Favorite Son.   The biggest electoral prize for Huckabee at this point is Alabama, with a mere 9 electoral votes.

Much will have to go wrong for Barack Obama for him to fare worse than 53-46, or else Huckabee will have to show political strengths that he has so far not shown (which could be his wise strategy). The incumbent President seeking re-election has won 13 of the last 18 times  

[ej2mm15]

Scenario= Obama Epic Fail

Huckabee 51.2%
Obama 47.9%

Average Presidency

Obama 52.6%
Huckabee 46.3%

Awesome Presidency

Obama 55.4%
Huckabee 42.7%

[California8429]

It's pointless to argue this early with everyone, but I'd believe Huckabee would have a chance. Also would depend on who is running mate is, how many pounds he took off that he gained after 08, how well he did in the primary, how well his campaign team is put together, how positive and sharp their message is, how many funds they can raise, is Chuck doing another commerical?

[pbrower2a]

It's pointless to argue this early with everyone, but I'd believe Huckabee would have a chance.

Beyond question, the 2012 election is a contest not so much that some GOP challenger can win but instead one that Obama would have to fumble away to lose. He would have to be caught in a major scandal, face an economic downturn almost as severe as the one that facilitated his election, or endure some catastrophe of foreign policy. That is all possible. Anyone who expects a GOP contender to win because he shows more charisma, has no regional weaknesses, and offers a coherent vision for a better America ignores the extreme scarcity of such political figures. Not enough time exists for such a politician to emerge before 2012. 

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Probably over-rated; the Favorite Son effect for a VP candidate is surely much slighter than that for the President -- so slight that ideological coherence and competence as a campaigner matters far more. A VP nominee might have flipped a state so close as Indiana, Missouri, or North Carolina in 2008, but such would have been far from enough to make a significant difference in the election. Of the successes:

2008: Joe Biden, Delaware, 3 electoral votes -- nobody had any question that Delaware would vote for just about any Democrat.

2000, 2004: Dick Cheney, Wyoming, 3 electoral votes -- Wyoming hadn't voted for a Democratic nominee for President since LBJ in 1964.

1992, 1996: Al Gore, Tennessee, 11 electoral votes -- Tennessee really was a swing vote, but Tennessee and Arkansas vote much alike anyway.

1988: Dan Quayle, Indiana, 12 electoral votes -- probably a blunder, in view of 1992,  as Indiana had voted for Democrats only in Democratic blowouts for LBJ and FDR.

1980, 1984: George H. W. Bush. It's hard to figure which state (Massachusetts or Texas) one associated Bush with. Probably a brilliant move in a close election -- which 1980 wasn't.

1976: Walter Mondale, Minnesota, 10 electoral votes: Minnesota had voted for Nixon in 1972, Eisenhower in 1952 and 1956, and Hoover in 1928, and it hasn't voted for a Republican nominee since then.

Ideological coherence has mattered more than "delivering" some key state, and the last VP who can be said to have possibly delivered a critical state to a winning candidate was LBJ in 1960. Think about it: Lloyd Bentsen, a very strong politician well respected in Texas, couldn't deliver Texas in 1988 to Mike Dukakis. Dukakis had other problems as a candidate, to be sure, and Texas wouldn't have made a difference.

Now let's look at some of the failures:

2004: John Edwards (North Carolina, 15 EV) -- Kerry/Edwards lost the state by 12%, and the states closest to North Carolina that Kerry/Edwards won were (depending on where one is in North Carolina) are Maryland, Pennsylvania. Michigan, or Illinois. Kerry may have picked Edwards to campaign strongly in Ohio -- a situation that was a mistake for reasons that few knew outside of the GOP.

2000: Joe Lieberman (Connecticut, 7 EV) -- picked to appeal to the Jewish vote in a couple of swing states (Florida, Ohio) that the Democrats ended up losing. Gore could have won by winning New Hampshire instead, and John Kerry would have been a better pick for winning New Hampshire, which would have been enough.

1996: Jack Kemp (New York, 33 EV) -- gutty move, but no way was New York going to vote for Bob Dole. Well respected Representative -- see "Geraldine Ferraro".

1992: Dan Quayle (Indiana, 12 EV) -- his liabilities came back to haunt the Republican ticket that year.

1988: Lloyd Bentsen. See above.

1984: Geraldine Ferraro (New York, 36 EV) -- not a bad choice in a hopeless situation. New York was one of Reagan's weaker victories.

1980: Walter Mondale (Minnesota, 10 EV) -- You win some, and you lose some.

1976: Nelson Rockefeller (New York, 41 EV) -- Rocky couldn't win his own state!       

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More likely to influence whether Mike Huckabee will be alive to participate in the 2012 election than whether he would win against Obama

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Show Mike Huckabee winning primaries outside the South and I will change my tune on that one. Such alone would indicate that Huckabee can win outside a very provincial culture as he must.

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I trust that Barack Obama will have every advantage in organization of his campaign.

[Ebowed]

Now let's look at some of the failures:

1980: Walter Mondale (Minnesota, 10 EV) -- You win some, and you lose some.

Minnesota voted for Carter/Mondale in 1980.

[KuntaKinte]

German media would have a lot of fun with a hardcore religious Republican running. The coverage would propably be even more biased in favor of Obama than 2008. But no, that's really not possible at all

I don't know what a map would look like. I guess Obama would win, holding his states from 2008 and taking up Missouri and Arizona, perhaps Montana too.
Huckabee may have a chance to win back North Carolina, but I may be totally wrong on that one.

[Scam of God]

There'd be a third-party libertarian run that would deny the Huckster the Presidency regardless.

[Grumpier Than Uncle Joe]

There'd be a third-party libertarian run that would deny the Huckster the Presidency regardless.

Ala, Bush 41, eh?

[Scam of God]

There'd be a third-party libertarian run that would deny the Huckster the Presidency regardless.

Ala, Bush 41, eh?

Yeah. And, if such happened, I wouldn't be surprised to see that begin the shift I expect of libertarians into the Democratic camp over the long-term.

[KuntaKinte]

There'd be a third-party libertarian run that would deny the Huckster the Presidency regardless.

You'd need a very well known, electable and non-extremist candidate. Like Perot was. Is there anyone like that in the libertarian movement?

[pbrower2a]

Now let's look at some of the failures:

1980: Walter Mondale (Minnesota, 10 EV) -- You win some, and you lose some.

Minnesota voted for Carter/Mondale in 1980.

True -- but that was far from enough. The same team barely won in 1976, and of course lost badly in 1980.

[President Mitt]

It's pointless to argue this early with everyone, but I'd believe Huckabee would have a chance.

Beyond question, the 2012 election is a contest not so much that some GOP challenger can win but instead one that Obama would have to fumble away to lose. He would have to be caught in a major scandal, face an economic downturn almost as severe as the one that facilitated his election, or endure some catastrophe of foreign policy. That is all possible. Anyone who expects a GOP contender to win because he shows more charisma, has no regional weaknesses, and offers a coherent vision for a better America ignores the extreme scarcity of such political figures. Not enough time exists for such a politician to emerge before 2012. 

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Probably over-rated; the Favorite Son effect for a VP candidate is surely much slighter than that for the President -- so slight that ideological coherence and competence as a campaigner matters far more. A VP nominee might have flipped a state so close as Indiana, Missouri, or North Carolina in 2008, but such would have been far from enough to make a significant difference in the election. Of the successes:

2008: Joe Biden, Delaware, 3 electoral votes -- nobody had any question that Delaware would vote for just about any Democrat.

2000, 2004: Dick Cheney, Wyoming, 3 electoral votes -- Wyoming hadn't voted for a Democratic nominee for President since LBJ in 1964.

1992, 1996: Al Gore, Tennessee, 11 electoral votes -- Tennessee really was a swing vote, but Tennessee and Arkansas vote much alike anyway.

1988: Dan Quayle, Indiana, 12 electoral votes -- probably a blunder, in view of 1992,  as Indiana had voted for Democrats only in Democratic blowouts for LBJ and FDR.

1980, 1984: George H. W. Bush. It's hard to figure which state (Massachusetts or Texas) one associated Bush with. Probably a brilliant move in a close election -- which 1980 wasn't.

1976: Walter Mondale, Minnesota, 10 electoral votes: Minnesota had voted for Nixon in 1972, Eisenhower in 1952 and 1956, and Hoover in 1928, and it hasn't voted for a Republican nominee since then.

Ideological coherence has mattered more than "delivering" some key state, and the last VP who can be said to have possibly delivered a critical state to a winning candidate was LBJ in 1960. Think about it: Lloyd Bentsen, a very strong politician well respected in Texas, couldn't deliver Texas in 1988 to Mike Dukakis. Dukakis had other problems as a candidate, to be sure, and Texas wouldn't have made a difference.

Now let's look at some of the failures:

2004: John Edwards (North Carolina, 15 EV) -- Kerry/Edwards lost the state by 12%, and the states closest to North Carolina that Kerry/Edwards won were (depending on where one is in North Carolina) are Maryland, Pennsylvania. Michigan, or Illinois. Kerry may have picked Edwards to campaign strongly in Ohio -- a situation that was a mistake for reasons that few knew outside of the GOP.

2000: Joe Lieberman (Connecticut, 7 EV) -- picked to appeal to the Jewish vote in a couple of swing states (Florida, Ohio) that the Democrats ended up losing. Gore could have won by winning New Hampshire instead, and John Kerry would have been a better pick for winning New Hampshire, which would have been enough.

1996: Jack Kemp (New York, 33 EV) -- gutty move, but no way was New York going to vote for Bob Dole. Well respected Representative -- see "Geraldine Ferraro".

1992: Dan Quayle (Indiana, 12 EV) -- his liabilities came back to haunt the Republican ticket that year.

1988: Lloyd Bentsen. See above.

1984: Geraldine Ferraro (New York, 36 EV) -- not a bad choice in a hopeless situation. New York was one of Reagan's weaker victories.

1980: Walter Mondale (Minnesota, 10 EV) -- You win some, and you lose some.

1976: Nelson Rockefeller (New York, 41 EV) -- Rocky couldn't win his own state!       

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More likely to influence whether Mike Huckabee will be alive to participate in the 2012 election than whether he would win against Obama

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Show Mike Huckabee winning primaries outside the South and I will change my tune on that one. Such alone would indicate that Huckabee can win outside a very provincial culture as he must.

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I trust that Barack Obama will have every advantage in organization of his campaign.

Rocky wasn't Ford's running mate dumbass.

[pbrower2a]

I stand corrected -- it was Bob Dole.

Kansas was about as sure a Republican state in 1976 as any.

[Coburn In 2012]

At the rate obama is screwing everyting  up foreign and domestic it will be a landslide for us

[RosettaStoned]

At the rate obama is screwing everyting  up foreign and domestic it will be a landslide for us

LOL at the thought of Huckabee even winning the Pacific Northwest.

[President Mitt]

Here's an attempt at an unbiased map:

While I do believe that Huckabee would improve showings in the Rust Belt, he would get SLAUGHTERED in the West, and guess which half of the country is gaining electoral votes in 2010? Hint, it's not the East. Huckabee would preform well in the South, and that's it.

[CatoMinor]

If Obamas approval ratings stay between 48 % and 52%

If Obama's rating sink into the low 40's

[pbrower2a]

At the rate obama is screwing everyting  up foreign and domestic it will be a landslide for us

Only by your standards is he screwing up everything.

No way does Mississippi, which is 37% black, give 70% of its votes to Huckabee or any other Republican against Obama.

[Psychic Octopus]

Obama win...

[YankeeFan007]

These maps are so ridiculous from both sides.  This is what' going to happen:

Huckabee 100% switches Virginia and North Carolina back and possibly Indiana and Obama possibly takes Montana and Arizona.  Either way, Obama wins unless there's a terrorist attack because unemployment is going to eventually decrease and the Democrats will be able to say that they passed a healthcare bill with a public option.  

Who ever the canidate for 2012 is will be set up to lose just like McCain was set up to lose. 

[Хahar 🤔]

Huckabee 100% switches Virginia.   

You lose the thread!

[YankeeFan007]

Huckabee 100% switches Virginia.   

You lose the thread!

Sorry but that's what's going to happen.  The conditions in 2012 will be different from 2008.  I know its hard to beleive, but Virginia is a conservative state.

[5280]

You guys are dumb.  All of these maps are useless, you can't predict what will happen right now.  Go do something outside, get some fresh air.

[ChrisJG777]

You guys are dumb.  All of these maps are useless, you can't predict what will happen right now.  Go do something outside, get some fresh air.

Perhaps the smartest post in this thread.