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Author Topic: 2010 US House Redistricting- IL (Incumbency Protection).  (Read 2621 times)
nkpatel1279
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« on: October 30, 2009, 04:32:18 pm »
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2010 IL US House Redistricting plan to protect Democratic US House members from swing districts. Bean,Foster,Halverson,Seals or Hamos- and eliminate a Downstate IL GOP seat.
The Black Majority Districts IL-1,IL-2,and IL-7 need additional people- IL-1(Rush-D). will pick up the Southeast Cook County portion of IL-13(Biggert-R). IL-2(Jackson-D) will pick up the North-Central Will County portion of IL-11(Halverson-D). IL-7(Davis-D) will pick up the Western Loop of IL-4(Guitteriez-D) and East-Central portion of IL-6(Roskam-R). The Western Loop of IL-4 will go around the western part of the new IL-7 into the IL-6.
Regarding Democratic incumbents in swing districts- Bean(IL-8) picks up the Western Cook County portion of IL-10(Seals-D). Foster(IL-14)- picks up Henry(IL-17),South-Central Rock Island, Knox(IL-17/IL-18). Fulton(IL-17)- Eastern Mercer,Warren,and McDonough(IL-17) and Southern Peoria(IL-18). IL-11(Halverson-D)- picks up Bureau,Putnam,Stark,Marshall,and Northern Peoria portion of IL-18. IL-16(Manzullo-R) moves Southwest picking up the Whiteside and Northern Rock Island portion of IL-17(Hare-D). IL-17 picks up Sangamon County(IL-18,IL-19),Schuyler,Mason,Cass,and Morgan(IL-18). Bond,NorthEast Madison,Montgomery,and Christian portion of IL-19.
« Last Edit: November 06, 2009, 11:50:43 am by nkpatel1279 »Logged
nkpatel1279
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« Reply #1 on: November 05, 2009, 08:18:06 pm »
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A new District containing NorthWest DuPage County,Northern Kane County and  Southern McHenry County is created. - It is a swing District.
Schrock (IL-18) is eliminated. -He will have to run against Foster or Halverson.or Hare in the general election or Schimkus in the primary.
« Last Edit: November 06, 2009, 11:57:13 am by nkpatel1279 »Logged
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« Reply #2 on: November 06, 2009, 08:12:30 pm »
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  I do not see Il-1,Il-2, or Il-7 expanding in the way that you mention.  All three will need people, but they will be remapped out to keep AA majorities.  Shoving Il-7 out into the east central portion of Il-6 will add population, but will not keep the district majority AA, nor will adding any of the predominately Hispanic areas of Il-4.
  I know that you are using some sort of software, but it doesn't take into account the racial brakdown of the Chicago districs--something that will be taken account of in the remap after 2010.
  I worked on a remap--eliminating Il-10 and protecting the rest of the incumbents some months ago.  My experience was that with the spreading thinner of the AA population and the depopolation of many of the inner city AA neighborhoods, it will be barely possible to maintain 3 50% +1 AA districts in 2010.   In 2020, I think that it will be an impossibility.  Perhaps then, there will be 2 AA districts and 2 Hispanic disticts, which will eliminate the ridiculous Il-4 (the loop connecting the two main areas being cemetaries, Union Pacific's Proviso classification yards,   Proviso West High School, various forest preserves, and empty land between Interstates 290 and 294.
  Downstate took the hit 10 years ago, and it would be politically unpalatable to get rid of a downstate district this tims, so the Chicago area will take the hit.  Whoever gets elected in Il-10 will be the most junior member of the Il-delegation--providing no incumbents lose--so that district may indeed be the one gotten rid of.

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« Reply #3 on: November 06, 2009, 11:24:15 pm »
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  I do not see Il-1,Il-2, or Il-7 expanding in the way that you mention.  All three will need people, but they will be remapped out to keep AA majorities.  Shoving Il-7 out into the east central portion of Il-6 will add population, but will not keep the district majority AA, nor will adding any of the predominately Hispanic areas of Il-4.
  I know that you are using some sort of software, but it doesn't take into account the racial brakdown of the Chicago districs--something that will be taken account of in the remap after 2010.
  I worked on a remap--eliminating Il-10 and protecting the rest of the incumbents some months ago.  My experience was that with the spreading thinner of the AA population and the depopolation of many of the inner city AA neighborhoods, it will be barely possible to maintain 3 50% +1 AA districts in 2010.   In 2020, I think that it will be an impossibility.  Perhaps then, there will be 2 AA districts and 2 Hispanic disticts, which will eliminate the ridiculous Il-4 (the loop connecting the two main areas being cemetaries, Union Pacific's Proviso classification yards,   Proviso West High School, various forest preserves, and empty land between Interstates 290 and 294.
  Downstate took the hit 10 years ago, and it would be politically unpalatable to get rid of a downstate district this tims, so the Chicago area will take the hit.  Whoever gets elected in Il-10 will be the most junior member of the Il-delegation--providing no incumbents lose--so that district may indeed be the one gotten rid of.

Ill Ind
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I agree that 2020 may present some problems, but I posted a map a while ago on the Daves Redistricing App thread that shows a way to keep three AA districts in 2010 while expanding to 2 Latino seats.
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« Reply #4 on: November 09, 2009, 05:14:35 pm »
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Can you explain to me, why you need too post 500 threads on the same bullcrap Over and over again? I mean really, you post over 600 times a day.

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« Reply #5 on: November 15, 2009, 11:58:09 am »
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2011 IL US House Redistricting plan to create a 2nd Hispanic Majority District, Protect Democratic US House members from swing Districts- Bean,Seals,Halverson,and Foster, and defeat Republican House members from the Chicago Area(Roskam and Biggert-R).
IL-1(Rush-D)- Picks up the North-Central Will County(Frankfort portion)-IL-11. Remains a Black Majority District.
IL-2(Jackson-D)-Picks up the North-Central Will County portion of IL-11(including Eastern Joliet). Remains a Black Majority District.
IL-3(New-Hispanic-D)- It is the Southern Muff (IL-4), and Eastern portion of IL-3.
IL-4(Guiteriez-D)- The Northern Muff(IL-4),Western part of IL-5 and Eastern DuPage portion of IL-6- remains a Hispanic Majority District.
IL-5(Quigley-D)-picks up the Northern DuPage and Eastern Cook County portion of IL-6.
IL-6(Lipinski-D vs Roskam-R vs Biggert-R)- Western part of IL-3,Eastern DuPage and Cook County portions of IL-13,and South-Western DuPage portion of IL-6. 40% are from the old IL-3,40% are from the old IL-13 and 20% are from the old IL-6.
« Last Edit: November 16, 2009, 10:56:10 am by nkpatel1279 »Logged
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« Reply #6 on: November 15, 2009, 12:09:14 pm »
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IL-7(Davis-D)- picks up the Southeastern portion of IL-5. Remains a Black Majority District.
IL-8(Bean-D)- picks up the Western Cook County portion of IL-6 and NW DuPage County-Loses McHenry County to IL-16. Safe Dem District.
IL-9(Schakowsky-D)- picks up the South Eastern portion of IL-5.
IL-10(Seals-D)-picks up the Northeast portion of IL-9. Safe Dem District.
IL-11(Halverson-D)- Picks up the Will County portion of IL-13 -all of Bureau,Putnam,Marshall,Stark and Northern Peoria, -Loses McLean,Woodford,and Livingston. 
IL-12(Costello-D)-Picks up Northern Madison County,Bond,Macoupian,Montgomery and  portion of IL-17,and All of Sangamon (Springfield) County- Loses- Counties below St Clair County. It is a St Louis-Springfield based District.
IL-13(Schimkus-R)- Picks up the Southern portion of IL-12 and Southern portion of IL-15.
IL-14(Foster-D)- Picks up the Western DuPage and Northwest Will County portion of  IL-13 Loses-Whiteside,Bureau,Henry,and Lee County. Safe Dem District.
« Last Edit: November 16, 2009, 11:07:49 am by nkpatel1279 »Logged
nkpatel1279
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« Reply #7 on: November 15, 2009, 12:25:21 pm »
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IL-15(Johnson-R)- Picks up the McLean and Livingston portion of IL-11 and Loses Macon,Saline,Gallatin,White,Edwards,Wabash,and Lawrence County.  Safe Republican District.
IL-16(Manzullo-R)- Picks up Lee and McHenry-Loses Stephenson,Jo Davies,Carroll,and Whiteside County.
IL-17(Hare-D)-Picks up Whiteside County,Jo Davies,Stephenson and Carroll County(IL-16), Henry,Knox,and Peoria.- Loses Hancock,Adams,Pike,Greene,Jersey,Calhoun,Macoupian,Madison,Montgomery,Sangamon,Macon,Fayette,Shelby,Christian Counties portions of the old IL-17.
IL-18(Schrock-R)-- Picks up the Republican Areas from the old IL-17 plus includes all of Macon County, Christian,Montgomery,Shelby and Marion portion of IL-19. Loses Peoria, Putnam,Marshall,Mason,Schuyler,Stark and Bureau and Knox which leans Democratic- Safe republican District.
« Last Edit: November 16, 2009, 11:15:12 am by nkpatel1279 »Logged
nkpatel1279
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« Reply #8 on: December 01, 2009, 04:14:04 pm »
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IL-1(Rush-D)- picks up Southern Cook County portion of IL-13 and Frankfort portion of Will County(IL-11).
IL-2(Jackson-D)- picks up the North Central Will County portion of IL-11.
IL-3(Lipinski-D)- picks up Northern Cook county portions of IL-13 and plus a tiny Southeast DuPage Portion of IL-6.
IL-4(Guitteriez-D)- picks up Southeast DuPage portion of IL-6.
IL-5(Quigley-D)- picks up Northeastern Cook and DuPage portion of IL-6.
IL-6 (Roskam-R vs Biggert-R)- DuPage County based District.
IL-7(Davis-D)- picks up Southeast portion of IL-5.
IL-8 (Bean-D)- picks up Northern Cook and DuPage portion of IL-6.
IL-9(Schakowsky-D)-picks up Eastern Cook County portion of IL-6.
IL-10(DEM INC-D)- picks up Eastern Cook County portion of IL-6.
IL-11(Halverson-D)- picks up Will County portion of IL-13 plus Marshall,Stark,and Northern Peoria county portion of IL-18.
IL-12(Costello-D)- picks up all of Sangamon County, Bond,Macoupin,Montgomery portion of IL-17. and Northern and Western Madison County- loses the Southern Counties.
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nkpatel1279
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« Reply #9 on: December 01, 2009, 04:23:40 pm »
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IL-13(Schimkus-R)- Southern portions of IL-12,IL-15,and IL-19.
IL-14(Foster-D)- picks up Northern LaSalle portion of IL-11.
IL-15(Johnson-R)-picks up McLean portion of IL-11.
IL-16(Manzullo-R)- picks up McHenry portion of IL-8.
IL-17(Hare-D)-picks up Jo Davies Carroll and Whiteside portion of IL-16. Whiteside and Henry portion of IL-14. plus Bureau,Putnam, Mason,Schuyler,and Peoria and Knox- from IL-18.
IL-18(Schrock-R)- picks up Macon , Northern-Central portion of IL-19 and Southwestern portion of IL-17. IL-17(Adams,Pike,Calhoun,Greene,Jersey). IL-19 Christian,Shelby,Fayette,Effingham.
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« Reply #10 on: December 01, 2009, 11:04:18 pm »
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I assume that each of the variations in this thread such as the new one today are due to a new effort with Dave's Redistricting App (or equivalent). I would help all of us reading it if you would post a map as well since it's not always clear which parts move as you describe. Dave's App has an option to save the map and another tool to convert it to a jpeg. The forum includes a gallery to save the map for posting in the thread.

IL-1(Rush-D)- picks up Southern Cook County portion of IL-13 and Frankfort portion of Will County(IL-11).
IL-2(Jackson-D)- picks up the North Central Will County portion of IL-11.
IL-3(Lipinski-D)- picks up Northern Cook county portions of IL-13 and plus a tiny Southeast DuPage Portion of IL-6.
IL-4(Guitteriez-D)- picks up Southeast DuPage portion of IL-6.
IL-5(Quigley-D)- picks up Northeastern Cook and DuPage portion of IL-6.
IL-6 (Roskam-R vs Biggert-R)- DuPage County based District.
IL-7(Davis-D)- picks up Southeast portion of IL-5.
IL-8 (Bean-D)- picks up Northern Cook and DuPage portion of IL-6.
IL-9(Schakowsky-D)-picks up Eastern Cook County portion of IL-6.
IL-10(DEM INC-D)- picks up Eastern Cook County portion of IL-6.
IL-11(Halverson-D)- picks up Will County portion of IL-13 plus Marshall,Stark,and Northern Peoria county portion of IL-18.
IL-12(Costello-D)- picks up all of Sangamon County, Bond,Macoupin,Montgomery portion of IL-17. and Northern and Western Madison County- loses the Southern Counties.

IL-13(Schimkus-R)- Southern portions of IL-12,IL-15,and IL-19.
IL-14(Foster-D)- picks up Northern LaSalle portion of IL-11.
IL-15(Johnson-R)-picks up McLean portion of IL-11.
IL-16(Manzullo-R)- picks up McHenry portion of IL-8.
IL-17(Hare-D)-picks up Jo Davies Carroll and Whiteside portion of IL-16. Whiteside and Henry portion of IL-14. plus Bureau,Putnam, Mason,Schuyler,and Peoria and Knox- from IL-18.
IL-18(Schrock-R)- picks up Macon , Northern-Central portion of IL-19 and Southwestern portion of IL-17. IL-17(Adams,Pike,Calhoun,Greene,Jersey). IL-19 Christian,Shelby,Fayette,Effingham.
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nkpatel1279
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« Reply #11 on: December 03, 2009, 11:28:01 am »
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I am having trouble saving my updated 2010 IL US House Redistricting plan- but here is what I have done.
1)IL-1(Rush-D)-Dark Blue- All of the current IL-1 plus Cook County portion of IL-13 and Southeast Will County portion of IL-13. Remains a CBC majority District.
2)IL-2(Jackson-D)-Dark Greene- All of the current IL-2 plus North-Central Will county portion of IL-11. Remains a CBC majority District.
3)IL-3(Lipinski-D or Hispanic Dem-D)- Magneta- Southern Muff portion of IL-4, and Eastern portion of IL-3. Lipinski-D is the underdog in the primary against a Latino Democrat- if he chooses to run in the new IL-3.
4)IL-4(Guitteriez-D)- Red- Northern Muff of IL-4, Western portion of IL-5 and Eastern DuPage portion of IL-6. Remains a Hispanic Majority District.
5)IL-5(Quigley-D)-Dark Yellow- The Eastern portion the current IL-5, Southeastern portion of IL-9 and Northeastern portion of IL-7.
6)IL-6(Roskam-R vs Biggert-R vs Lipinski-D)- Turquoise- Western portion of IL-3, DuPage County  portion of IL-13 and Western DuPage portion of IL-6. expect a general election matchup between Roskam-R vs Lipinski-D.
7)IL-7(Davis-D)-Gray- Remaining portions of the current IL-7 plus the Northeastern portion of IL-3. Remains a CBC majority distirct.   
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nkpatel1279
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« Reply #12 on: December 03, 2009, 11:42:10 am »
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8)IL-8(Bean-D)-Light purple- McHenry portion of the current IL-8,plus Western Lake County portion of the current IL-8, NorthWestern Cook County portion of IL-6,IL-8,IL-10,and Northwest DuPage portion of IL-6 and IL-14. Bean-D is safe in the new IL-8.
9)IL-9(Schakowsky-D)-Sky Blue- Most of the current IL-9 except for the New Trier Township and Southeast portion of the current IL-9 plus eastern Cook County portion of IL-6 and Western Cook County portion of IL-10.
10)IL-10(Seals-D or Hamos-D)- Dark Pink- Lake and Eastern Cook County portion of the current IL-10, Eastern Lake County portion of the current IL-8 and New Trier Township portion of the current IL-9. Seals-D or Hamos-D is safe.
11)IL-11(Halverson-D)-Yellow-Greene- Most of Will County portions of IL-11 and IL-13, Kankakee,Grundy,and Eastern LaSalle portion of the current IL-11. Halverson-D is safe in the new IL-11.
12)IL-12(Costello-D)-Blue- St Clair and Madison County portions of the current IL-12 plus Northern Madison County, Bond, Montgomery,MaCoupian,and Sangamon County. The new IL-12 is more Democratic favorable than the current IL-12.
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« Reply #13 on: December 03, 2009, 11:59:31 am »
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IL-13(Schimkus-R)-Burgundy red.  All of Christian,Shelby,Fayette,Effingham,Jasper,Richland,Clay,Marion,Clinton, Southeastern Madison, Washington, Jefferson, Wayne, Hamilton, Franklin, Perry, Randolph, Monroe, Jackson, Williamson, Union, Johnson, Western Massac, Pulaski, and Alexander.  Republican Areas of the current IL-12 and IL-19.
IL-14(Foster-D)- Brown-  Kane,Kendall, and DeKalb portions of the current IL-14 plus the Northwest Will County portion of the current IL-13. Foster-D is safe in the new IL-14.
IL-15(Johnson-R)-Orange- Western Massac, Pope, Hardin, Saline,Gallitin, White, Edwards, Wabash, Lawrence, Crawford, Clark, Cumberland, Coles, Moultrie, Southeastern Macon, Piatt, Douglas, Edgar, Vermillion, Champaign, DeWitt, Eastern McLean, Livingston, Ford, and Iroquos. 
IL-16(Manzullo-R)- I removed Winnebago, Stephenson, Jo Davies, Carroll,and Whiteside  and replaced them with  Lee, Western LaSalle, Bureau, Henry, Stark, Putnam, Marshall, Woodford, and Western McLean.
IL-17(Hare-D)- Dark Purple-  Winnebago, Stephenson, Jo Davies, Carroll, Whiteside, Rock Island, Mercer, Henderson, Warren, McDonough, Fulton, and Mason- Seat is safer Democratic
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« Reply #14 on: December 03, 2009, 12:03:24 pm »
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IL-18(Schrock-R)- Knox, Peoria, Tazewell, Logan, Western Macon, Menard, Cass, Schuyler, Hancock, Adams, Brown, Morgan, Scott, Pike, Greene, Jersey, and Calhoun.  Republican areas of IL-17 and IL-18.
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