Democratic Primary Campaign - Xahar wins!

[Joe Republic]

 

D E M O C R A T I C
P R I M A R I E S

Welcome to the official campaign thread for the forum Democratic presidential nomination!

This thread will begin with instructions on how the game is played, and will follow with nineteen stages each focused on one or several primaries in the campaign.

But first, let's take a look at the candidates as we enter the primary season:

       


        

Table of Contents:

1. Overview
2. Contesting a primary
3. Primary schedule
4. Candidate advantages

[Joe Republic]

OVERVIEW

As in real life, the objective of a successful primary campaign is to win a majority of delegates at the party convention.  As you know, the more primaries you win, the more delegates you will accumulate.

In this game, we’ll be using an artificial currency of 'credits'.  These can be earned and spent in various ways, and will be essential to your success.


EARNING CREDITS

Each candidate will begin with 10 credits, to get the ball rolling.  Additional credits are earned in two different ways:

The first method is already underway; forum members are able to donate 'endorsement points' to their favored candidates, which equate directly with credits for their campaign.  The thread where this happens is here.  Forum members who haven’t done so already may endorse candidates at any point in the campaign, and credits will be added to their campaign war chest before the start of the next primary.  If forum members decide to switch their endorsements, credits will be deducted from one candidate (if available) and added to the other.

The second method is by winning primaries.  The number of credits earned is determined by the winner’s margin of victory.  This will be explained in further detail in the next post.


SPENDING CREDITS

There are three varieties of ‘token’ that you can buy for one credit each, and all of them will prove essential to victory.

Firstly, there are campaign tokens.  Each of these tokens will generate a random number between 1-1000.  These numbers are added up, and whichever candidate has the highest score wins the primary.  For the first four primary stages (i.e. Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina), there is a limit of five campaign tokens that a candidate may invest.  It may be possible to exchange campaign tokens back into credits after the primary, but this will depend on how well your candidate performs.

Secondly, there are bonus tokens.  Each bonus token adds 25% to your score produced by your campaign tokens.  There is no limit to the number of bonus tokens you can invest in a primary, but these cannot be redeemed as credits afterwards.

Thirdly, there are attack tokens.  Each attack token reduces a specific opponent’s total campaign score in a single primary by 25%.  There is also no limit to the number of attack tokens you can invest in a primary, but these also cannot be redeemed as credits afterwards.  Furthermore, each candidate is guaranteed at least 25% of their campaign token score, so any attack tokens inflicted on an opponent once this threshold has been reached will be ineffective.  Finally, attack tokens are ineffective against an opponent in their home state.


ENDING THE GAME

The game will end either when only one candidate remains in the game after their opponents have dropped out, or if one candidate clinches the nomination by achieving a majority of convention delegates.  If no candidate has achieved a majority of delegates after the final primary stage, then... well... we'll cross that bridge when we come to it.

The presumptive Democratic nominee will then face the presumptive Republican nominee in a general election campaign.

It’s important to note that credits will roll over to the general election campaign.  So if you’re a candidate who has just lost out on the nomination but you still have a decent war chest, you may want to consider endorsing your opponent to help them in the next stage.  (Or not. )  Furthermore, the number of delegates you have accumulated as a runner up will affect your value as a prospective running mate.....

[Joe Republic]

CONTESTING A PRIMARY

It’s important to understand how to enter a primary contest, particularly if you want to win one.  Some of the basics were covered in the last post, but here there will be more detail.

For the purposes of the game, there will be no effective difference between a caucus and a primary.  Whenever I describe ‘a primary’, you can take that to include the caucuses too.


ENTERING A PRIMARY

To win a primary, you will need to spend at least one credit to buy a campaign token.  Unless you decide to opt out of a particular primary state entirely, I will automatically enter you in with one campaign token, thus deducting one credit from your balance.  If there are more primaries in one stage than you have credits for, I’ll randomly decide which states to opt you in to.

As I described in the previous post, you can purchase campaign tokens, bonus tokens, and attack tokens.  The best way I can demonstrate how these work is as follows:

Example

• Candidate A buys 4 campaign tokens, 2 bonus tokens, and 1 attack token to be used against Candidate C.  A total of 7 credits is therefore deducted from their campaign fund.

`

• Candidate B buys 5 campaign tokens, 3 bonus tokens, 2 attack tokens to be used against Candidate C, and 1 attack token to be used against Candidate D.  A total of 11 credits is therefore deducted from their campaign fund.

`

• Candidate C buys 3 campaign tokens, no bonus tokens, and 1 attack token to be used against Candidate A.  A total of 4 credits is therefore deducted from their campaign fund.

`

• Candidate D buys 4 campaign tokens, 4 bonus tokens, and no attack tokens.  A total of 8 credits is therefore deducted from their campaign fund.

`

WINNING A PRIMARY

Once I have received instructions from all candidates, or the designated time limit has run out, I will temporarily lock this thread and calculate the results.  As I described in the previous post, each campaign token produces a randomly generated number between 1-1000, which are then added up.  This score will then be increased and/or reduced by the number of bonus tokens and attack tokens that have been employed on it.

Continuing the previous example:

• Candidate A’s four campaign tokens produce the following results:
  299  496  163  481
  This produces a subtotal of 1439.
  Candidate A’s two bonus tokens add a further 25% each, which adds 720 to the subtotal.
  Candidate C has employed one attack token (25% of the subtotal), and thus deducting 360 from the subtotal.
  Therefore, Candidate A’s final score in this primary is 1799.

`

• Candidate B’s five campaign tokens produce the following results:
  402  553  675  686  909
  This produces a subtotal of 3225.
  Candidate B’s three bonus tokens add a further 25% each, which adds 2419 to the subtotal.
  No attack tokens were employed against Candidate B.
  Therefore, Candidate B’s final score in this primary is 5644.

`

• Candidate C’s three campaign tokens produce the following results:
  79  685  646
  This produces a subtotal of 1410.
  Candidate C has no bonus tokens.
  Candidates A and B have employed three attack tokens (25% for each token; 75% in total), thus deducting 1056 from the subtotal.
  Therefore, Candidate C’s final score in this primary is 354.

`

• Candidate D’s four campaign tokens produce the following results:
  905 644  763  575
  This produces a subtotal of 2887.
  Candidate D’s four bonus tokens add a further 25% each, which adds 2887 to the subtotal.
  Candidate B has employed one attack token (25% of the subtotal), and thus deducting 722 from the subtotal.
  Therefore, Candidate B’s final score in this primary is 5052.

`

• The final results of this primary are as follows:
  Candidate A:  1799;  14.0%
  Candidate B:  5644;  43.9%
  Candidate C:  354;  2.8%
  Candidate D:  5052;  39.3%
  
  Candidate B has won the primary with a margin of 4.6%.

`

RETURN ON INVESTMENT

As mentioned earlier, candidates are able to redeem some of the credits they invested in the primary (and more if they win).  This is calculated as follows:

The winner receives a number of credits directly equal to the number of campaign tokens they bought, plus a number of credits equal to their percentage margin of victory (rounded to the nearest whole number, at a minimum of 1 and a maximum of 5).

The second place finisher receives a number of credits directly equal to the number of campaign tokens they bought.

The third place finisher receives a number of credits directly equal to the number of campaign tokens they bought, minus 1.

The fourth place finisher receives a number of credits directly equal to the number of campaign tokens they bought, minus 2 if available.

The fifth place finisher receives a number of credits directly equal to the number of campaign tokens they bought, minus 3 if available.

…and so on.

When a primary stage is over, if your candidate has no remaining credits, and you have not received any additional endorsements from fellow forum members during this stage, you will be forced to withdraw from the campaign.


DELEGATES

As these are the Democratic primaries, the delegates in each state will be split proportionally among candidates who win at least 15% of the vote.  There are no superdelegates in this game.  I realize that this is not entirely comparable to reality, but some creative license has been used here.

The number of delegates available in each primary is summarized in the primary schedule in the next post, and also before each primary itself.

[Joe Republic]

PRIMARY SCHEDULE

The schedule roughly matches that of the 2008 Democratic primaries; for the sake of simplicity, the same schedule is being used for both parties.  There will be no primaries held for Puerto Rico, Guam, the Virgin Islands, the Northern Marianas Islands, or the Democrats Abroad.

The Super Tuesday primaries of 2008 have been divided in two in the hope of making it more manageable.

The chronological list of primaries is as follows, with the number of delegates in brackets:

Stage 1	Iowa (45)
Stage 2	New Hampshire (22)
Stage 3	Nevada (25)
Stage 4	South Carolina (45)
Stage 5	Florida (185) Michigan (128)
Stage 6	Alabama (52) Arizona (56) California (370) Connecticut (48) Georgia (87) Illinois (153) Massachusetts (93) Missouri (72) New Mexico (26) North Dakota (13) Tennessee (68)
Stage 7	Alaska (13) Arkansas (35) Colorado (55) Delaware (15) Idaho (18) Kansas (32) Minnesota (72) New Jersey (107) New York (232) Oklahoma (38) Utah (23)
Stage 8	Louisiana (56) Nebraska (24) Washington (78)
Stage 9	Maine (24)
Stage 10	District of Columbia (15) Maryland (70) Virginia (83)
Stage 11	Hawaii (20) Wisconsin (74)
Stage 12	Ohio (141) Rhode Island (21) Texas (193) Vermont (15)
Stage 13	Wyoming (12)
Stage 14	Mississippi (33)
Stage 15	Pennsylvania (158)
Stage 16	Indiana (72) North Carolina (115)
Stage 17	West Virginia (28)
Stage 18	Kentucky (51) Oregon (52)
Stage 19	Montana (16) South Dakota (15)



Total Delegates:  3,494

[Joe Republic]

CANDIDATE
ADVANTAGES

HOME STATE ADVANTAGES

As in real life, candidates often receive an advantage in particular primaries based on the proximity of their home state.  This element will be simulated in this game too.

The following map displays the various regions in which home state advantages are grouped:

The following series of questions will help explain how candidates' advantages in each primary are calculated:


[1]  Is the primary in your candidate's home state?

• Yes - add 200% bonus and proceed to Q5.
• No - proceed to Q2.

[2]  Does the primary state share a border with your candidate's home state?

• Yes - add 75% bonus and proceed to Q3.
• No - proceed to Q3.

[3]  Is the primary state in the same color group (e.g. red, green, etc.) as your candidate's home state?

• Yes - add 25% bonus and proceed to Q4.
• No - proceed to Q4.

[4]  Is the primary state in the same color shade group (e.g. bright orange, dark orange, etc.) as your candidate's home state?

• Yes - add 50% bonus and proceed to Q5.
• No - proceed to Q5.

[5]  Is the primary state in the blue region (i.e. the South)?

• Yes - double your accumulated bonus(es), if any.*
• No - end.

Any bonuses are added to the score subtotal produced by each candidate's campaign tokens.

N.B.  Each of the states at the Four Corners share borders with each other; i.e. New Mexico borders Utah, and Arizona borders Colorado.


* I realize that this may seem unfair on candidates from outside the South, but this intra-regional bias is pretty well based in reality, alas.



MOMENTUM BONUSES

In each primary state, each candidate will receive a bonus equal to the average vote percentage they have won over the previous three stages.  This will include stages with multi-state primaries.

[Joe Republic]

STAGE 1

The credit balances of the candidates are as follows:

Diane Dalton	10
Franklin Finch	15
Gillespie Goldsmith	15
Linda Lopez	22
Martin Montgomery	11
Oliver Osborne	17
Quentin Quinn	28
Timothy Taylor	33
Xander Xiao	24
Zachary Zuckerman	24

IOWA

There are 45 delegates available.  These will be divided proportionally among candidates who achieve at least 15% of the vote here.


Home State Advantages

(Bonuses will be added to candidates' campaign token scores.)

• Diane Dalton (MO) has a 75% bonus.
• Timothy Taylor (MI) has a 25% bonus.

`

N.B.  In this stage, you may buy no more than 5 campaign tokens.  There is no limit to the number of bonus tokens and attack tokens you can buy.




Please post your instructions for what tokens you would like to buy to compete in this stage.  You may edit your post as many times as you like if necessary.

The thread will be temporarily locked three days from now so that the results can be calculated.

In the mean time, please don't be afraid to ask any questions.  

[Joe Republic]

By the way, what would happen if all ten candidates split the vote so evenly that none hits the 15% viability threshold?  No delegates at all?

Um, good question.    Hopefully, this won't happen, but if it does, I'll most likely lower or remove the threshold for that particular primary.

Or, more realistically, only one candidate crosses the 15% mark.  Automatic 100% delegate win?

That would seem to be the most feasible outcome.

[Joe Republic]

Wouldn't the South advantage only be for the Republican party?

No, history has often shown that the South loves them a fellow Southerner no matter what color flag they be flyin'.

[Joe Republic]

I'll send a reminder PM to NiK (Dalton) and afleitch (Montgomery); if they both post their instructions then I can calculate the results early.

[Joe Republic]

I'll send a reminder PM to NiK (Dalton) and afleitch (Montgomery); if they both post their instructions then I can calculate the results early.

Could you do that with all the Republican candidates as well

Will do. 

[Joe Republic]

Do the Four Corners border (i.e. do I get the neighboring state bonus for Utah?) and are you doing the Maine/Massachusetts border you did in Risk?

Yes to the first, and no to the second, and thank you for reminding me to clarify that. 

NiK is going to get ridiculous regional bonuses.

HappyWarrior's bonuses will be even more ridiculous.

It's true that they will have an advantage, though I don't think it'll be "ridiculous".  What's more, other candidates have different kinds of advantages, which potentially spill over to the general election campaign as well.

[Joe Republic]

What's more, other candidates have different kinds of advantages, which potentially spill over to the general election campaign as well.

Does this mean that Lopez will get an additional bonus in states with a large number of hispanic voters, for example (by which I mean greater than the regional bonus)? Just a question... and now for a comment - I think this game is working really well! Great game machine/formula!

For that matter, do I get a bonus in South Carolina for the color of my skin?

I wish I could say 'yes' to those questions and enhance the realism, but alas, there would simply be too much work and detail involved to keep it accurate and fair.

The names and appearances of the candidates are simply to give the appearance of diversity, and to make things slightly more interesting for the players.  They don't actually have any real impact on the game itself in terms of how the results are calculated.

Will we have to play each state individually for multi-state primary days? Or will it be all together?

Each state will be played individually.  Players would have to give me instructions for each state all at once during those stages.  That's when things will get really interesting, because you guys will have to spend your limited credits very wisely over such a broad field. 

OOC: I demand a bonus for states with lots of crazy people!

Fine, I'm doubling your bonuses in West Virginia, California and Florida.

just kidding j00 guise

Will we be able to choose what states to enter if we run out of tokens?  Enter Alabama but not Connecticut, for example?

Yes.  The automatic entry of one token is only for players who don't issue any instructions.  If you want to opt out of a particular state entirely, you'd need to say so.

[Joe Republic]

Naturally I withdraw. I didn't have time to be part of this. Sorry

Sorry to see you go, but I understand. 

Don't forget that you can still issue your endorsement!  You have 6 credits to share out to whichever candidate(s) you like.

(Ordinarily you'd be able to share out the 10 credits you started with too, but since you didn't compete in any primaries it probably wouldn't seem right.)

[Joe Republic]

When does this close?

As soon after 8.47am Eastern tomorrow as I'm able to get online.  While the thread is locked, you'll be unable to edit your posts.


By the way, I'm loving the 'internal polls' you guys are 'publishing'. 

[Joe Republic]

When does this close?

As soon after 8.47am Eastern tomorrow as I'm able to get online.  While the thread is locked, you'll be unable to edit your posts.

Will edits after that time be counted? Or will everything be counted up until you close the thread?

The latter.  I can't really prevent people editing posts before the thread is locked, and if I were to try and enforce it, I wouldn't know what their post contained before they edited it. 

[Joe Republic]

5 campaign, 25 bonus

This is more than you have Xahar. You can only escalate to as high as you had at the beginning of the round. Recent donations don't count.

^^^^

[Joe Republic]

STAGE 1
RESULTS

IOWA

OPENING CREDIT BALANCE: Campaign Tokens Purchased: Bonus Tokens Purchased: Attack Tokens Purchased: CREDIT SUBTOTAL: Campaign Token Score: Bonus Tokens: Attack Tokens: Home State Advantage: TOTAL SCORE:

10 1 0 0 9 451 + 0 - 0 + 338 789

OPENING CREDIT BALANCE: Campaign Tokens Purchased: Bonus Tokens Purchased: Attack Tokens Purchased (Goldsmith): Attack Tokens Purchased (Quinn): CREDIT SUBTOTAL: Campaign Token Score: Bonus Tokens: Attack Tokens: Home State Advantage: TOTAL SCORE:

15 1 0 1 2 11 249 + 0 - 0 + 0 249

OPENING CREDIT BALANCE: Campaign Tokens Purchased: Bonus Tokens Purchased: Attack Tokens Purchased: CREDIT SUBTOTAL: Campaign Token Score: Bonus Tokens: Attack Tokens (Finch): Home State Advantage: TOTAL SCORE:

15 5 5 0 5 745  593  449  77  694  = 2558 + 3198 - 640 + 0 5116

OPENING CREDIT BALANCE: Campaign Tokens Purchased: Bonus Tokens Purchased: Attack Tokens Purchased: CREDIT SUBTOTAL: Campaign Token Score: Bonus Tokens: Attack Tokens: Home State Advantage: TOTAL SCORE:

22 5 2 0 15 29  166  801  522  247  = 1765 + 883 - 0 + 0 2648

OPENING CREDIT BALANCE: Campaign Tokens Purchased: Bonus Tokens Purchased: Attack Tokens Purchased: CREDIT SUBTOTAL: Campaign Token Score: Bonus Tokens: Attack Tokens: Home State Advantage: TOTAL SCORE:

17 5 5 0 7 527  297  56  349  175  = 1404 + 1755 - 0 + 0 3159

OPENING CREDIT BALANCE: Campaign Tokens Purchased: Bonus Tokens Purchased: Attack Tokens Purchased: CREDIT SUBTOTAL: Campaign Token Score: Bonus Tokens: Attack Tokens (Finch): Home State Advantage: TOTAL SCORE:

28 5 10 0 13 890  224  982  39  933  = 3068 + 7670 - 1534 + 0 9204

OPENING CREDIT BALANCE: Campaign Tokens Purchased: Bonus Tokens Purchased: Attack Tokens Purchased: CREDIT SUBTOTAL: Campaign Token Score: Bonus Tokens: Attack Tokens: Home State Advantage: TOTAL SCORE:

33 5 11 0 16 361  489  629  502  335  = 2316 + 6369 - 0 + 579 9264

OPENING CREDIT BALANCE: Campaign Tokens Purchased: Bonus Tokens Purchased: Attack Tokens Purchased: CREDIT SUBTOTAL: Campaign Token Score: Bonus Tokens: Attack Tokens: Home State Advantage: TOTAL SCORE:

24 5 19 0 0 358  643  177  481  461  = 2120 + 10070 - 0 + 0 12190

OPENING CREDIT BALANCE: Campaign Tokens Purchased: Bonus Tokens Purchased: Attack Tokens Purchased: CREDIT SUBTOTAL: Campaign Token Score: Bonus Tokens: Attack Tokens: Home State Advantage: TOTAL SCORE:

24 5 3 0 16 206  373  852  527  652  = 2610 + 1958 - 0 + 0 4568

NAME Dalton Finch Goldsmith Lopez Osborne Quinn Taylor Xiao Zuckerman

SCORE 789 249 5116 2648 3159 9204 9264 12190 4568

PERCENTAGE 1.7% 0.5% 10.8% 5.6% 6.7% 19.5% 19.6% 25.8% 9.7%

POSITION 8th 9th 4th 7th 6th 3rd 2nd 1st 5th

CREDITS WON 0 0 3 0 1 4 5 10 2

DELEGATES WON 0 0 0 0 0 13 14 18 0

[Joe Republic]

CAMPAIGN
RESULTS SUMMARY

NAME Diane Dalton Franklin Finch Gillespie Goldsmith Linda Lopez Oliver Osborne Quentin Quinn Timothy Taylor Xander Xiao Zachary Zuckerman Remaining Delegates TOTAL

DELEGATES 0 0 0 0 0 13 14 18 0 3449 3494

PERCENTAGE 0 0 0 0 0 0.4% 0.4% 0.5% 0 98.7% 100.0%

Xiao

[Joe Republic]

I'll let these results sink in before announcing the start of the next stage. 

[Joe Republic]

I'll let these results sink in before announcing the start of the next stage. 

I believe your math is off and I come in second.

7670 + 3068 - 1534 = 9104 (you did + rather than -).

Damn, I had a phantom number in my spreadsheet.  Give me a minute to recalculate.


Okay, it's been corrected.  I apologize for the error.

[Joe Republic]

EDIT: Joe, could you make rounds end closer to 11pm in the future, that way Xahar can actually sleep (someone went to bed at 5:30am last night for a game)? Also, if we could avoid Friday night (after 4pm) ends for primaries, that would be appreciated for religious reasons.

No problem.  Due to the latter request, if I start the next stage tonight, I'll finish it on Saturday morning instead, which will give you all just over three days.  Unless all candidates post instructions beforehand, that is.

[Joe Republic]

EDIT: Joe, could you make rounds end closer to 11pm in the future, that way Xahar can actually sleep (someone went to bed at 5:30am last night for a game)? Also, if we could avoid Friday night (after 4pm) ends for primaries, that would be appreciated for religious reasons.

No problem.  Due to the latter request, if I start the next stage tonight, I'll finish it on Saturday morning instead, which will give you all just over three days.  Unless all candidates post instructions beforehand, that is.

Friday night and Saturday day (until 5:30pm or so) is all the Sabbath. If it's too difficult to accommodate it's fine.

Pardon my ignorance.    I don't mind extending the next round for another day or so.  Again, if everybody posts early, I can close it early, so it won't matter anyway.

[Joe Republic]

STAGE 2

The credit balances of the candidates are as follows:

Diane Dalton	9
Franklin Finch	12
Gillespie Goldsmith	8
Linda Lopez	16
Oliver Osborne	8
Quentin Quinn	18
Timothy Taylor	37
Xander Xiao	45
Zachary Zuckerman	22

NEW HAMPSHIRE

There are 22 delegates available.  These will be divided proportionally among candidates who achieve at least 15% of the vote here.


Home State Advantages

(Bonuses will be added to candidates' campaign token scores.)

• Zachary Zuckerman (PA) has a 25% bonus.

`


Momentum Bonuses

(Bonuses will be added to candidates' campaign token scores.)

• Diane Dalton has a 2% bonus.
• Franklin Finch has a 1% bonus.
• Gillespie Goldsmith has a 11% bonus.
• Linda Lopez has a 6% bonus.
• Oliver Osborne has a 7% bonus.
• Quentin Quinn has a 20% bonus.
• Timothy Taylor has a 20% bonus.
• Xander Xiao has a 26% bonus.
• Zachary Zuckerman has a 10% bonus.

`

N.B.  In this stage, you may buy no more than 5 campaign tokens.  There is no limit to the number of bonus tokens and attack tokens you can buy.




Please post your instructions for what tokens you would like to buy to compete in this stage.  You may edit your post as many times as you like if necessary.

The thread will be temporarily locked three days from now - or after all candidates have posted instructions - so that the results can be calculated.

In the mean time, please don't be afraid to ask any questions. 

[Joe Republic]

4 campaign tokens; and are we only allowed to have as many bonus tokens as we have regular tokens?

There's no limit to the number of bonus and attack tokens you can buy, but don't forget that you won't have the chance to reclaim them as credits like you potentially can with campaign tokens.

Also, after the first four stages, there won't be a limit to the number of campaign tokens you can buy either.

[Joe Republic]

A poll* has just been released by the Mypalfish Institute on the shape of the race in New Hampshire as of this moment:

Xiao	61%
Taylor	10%
Lopez	9%
Goldsmith	8%
Quinn	6%
Osborne	5%
Finch	<1%
Zuckerman	<1%
Dalton	<1%

* Just for fun, but hopefully somewhat useful in determining the strengths of each candidate's campaign at this point.