2009 Nassau County Election

[Smash255]

I was delving through old threads and found the one Patrick made in 05, thought about bumping that, but decided to start a new one

Nassau County Exec.  Tom Suozzi against Ed Mangano.  Suozzi won in 05 by about 20 points, the race this year should be pretty much the same.

Nassau County DA  Kathleen Rice vs Joy Watson.  Rice knocked off 30 year incumbent Dennis Dillon four years ago, she should win re-election easily

Nassau County legislature 10-9 Democrats.

17 of the 19 Incumbents will be on the ballot.   Republicans and Democrats are each defending one open seat, Mangano the Republican is running for re-election, Corbin the Democrat who had ethical issues lost in the Primary.  Both districts solidly favor the Incumbent Party.

Competitive races
John Ciotti-R vs Nina Bastradi-D LD-3.   This is likely the one with the greatest potential to flip.  Ciotti has done well in holding off challenges in the past, but Bastradi is probably the strongest challenger, it is also one of the two districts in Nassau where the opposing party has a large advantage in party enrollment as the district has become increasingly Democratic, Suozzi should win here big.

Joe Scanell-D vs Chris Browne-R. LD-5 Rematch from 07 Browne put up a strong challenge, but fell short.  Dems have a slight enrollment advantage in the district, but one the GOP is heavily targeting, and was able to snag the Conservative line in the race which Scanell has last time, probably won't be enough to knock off Scanell.

Dave Mejias-D Joe Belesi-R 14th LD   This is my district.  Similar to LD-5 this is a rematch from 2007.  This is the other district where the opposing party has the large party enrollment advantage and is always the GOP's top target, this year is no different as the county and state GOP have spent quite a bit.  It will be close, but the GOP will likely come up short again.

Town races.  Kaiman-D TONH Supervisor and Venditto-R TOB Supervisor will likely cruise to another term.  The race to watch is Town of Hempstead Supervisor Kate Murray-R vs Kristen McElroy-D.  Murray has won previous elections in landslides, but Patronage issues as well  as her holding up of the Lighthouse Project has hurt her.  McElroy came out of nowhere last year and almost took out Kemp Hannon in her run for the 6th Senate district (lost by less than 4%, the 2nd closest of the 63 races in the state).  I think Murray will hold on, but it will be one to watch.

[xavier110]

I don't live in Nassau (Southampton, NY here -- fantastic local race for Supervisor), but everything I've read says that Suozzi -- whose family I know and like -- will win but by a much smaller margin than before. Why do you think he'll do as well as he did in 2005?

[Smash255]

I don't live in Nassau (Southampton, NY here -- fantastic local race for Supervisor), but everything I've read says that Suozzi -- whose family I know and like -- will win but by a much smaller margin than before. Why do you think he'll do as well as he did in 2005?

Kabot's DWI charge makes that interesting.

As far as Suozzi, the only thing that I have seen that might make it closer were internal Republican polls spouted off by Mangano suggesting the gap was cut a bit.  I can't say I put much stock into any internal polls from either side.  The only real poll I have seen on the race was a poll Sienna did for Newsday a few weeks ago which had Suozzi up 54-31.

It will probably be a bit closer than that, and perhaps slightly closer than 05, but not enough to make much of a difference.  Perhaps 14-17 point margin instead of 20.

[Progressive]

I live in Jeff Toback's district and I fear that he may be unseated by Kopel. Kopel has bombarded the area with lawn signs and other literature and has put Toback on the defensive about the energy tax.

I am 95% sure that Suozzi will win tonight something around 56%-43%

[Smash255]

I live in Jeff Toback's district and I fear that he may be unseated by Kopel. Kopel has bombarded the area with lawn signs and other literature and has put Toback on the defensive about the energy tax.

I am 95% sure that Suozzi will win tonight something around 56%-43%

I'm not that concerned about Toback's district, although its one I probably should have mentioned.  It was actually a little closer than Scanell's district in 2007.  However, its a district which is a bit more Democratic,and the increased turnout from the county races should help Toback.  Also the county GOP, while they do have an involvement doesn't seem to be as active in this race as they are in going after Mejias and Scanell or protecting Ciotti.

[xavier110]

Suozzi seems to be fighting for dear life.

But Anna Throne-Holst is destroying Kabot, so I'm happy.

[patrick1]

Wow, this Suozzi race is close.  Did he take this for granted?  I really didnt see him on commercials at all.

[Smash255]

Wow, I am very surprised the way the Suozzi/ Mangano race is unfolding.  Thought this would be a walk.  So far in the Legislature all the Incumbents are head with the exception of the Toback/Kopel race.

[Smash255]

Wow, this Suozzi race is close.  Did he take this for granted?  I really didnt see him on commercials at all.

I saw some commercials.  This looks like its just a strong anti-incumbent night.  Look at what is going on in Westchester, Jersey being obvious, the fact that the NYC mayor race, though Bloomberg won is much closer than anyone thought.

[patrick1]

Long Beach and Glen Cove are not in so Suozzi should win.  Still very close.

[patrick1]

Well Republicans have retaken the legislature- it is only a question of how many seats at this point. 

[Fmr. Emperor PiT]

Well Republicans have retaken the legislature- it is only a question of how many seats at this point. 

     It has always amazed me how the Republicans have managed to remain relevant in state legislature elections in New York.

[Smash255]

Well Republicans have retaken the legislature- it is only a question of how many seats at this point. 

Mejias is up 50 right now with 11 of the 56 ED's left, not sure from where.  Yaturo is up by 180 with 12 of the 61 Ed's left, though looks like the vast majority of them are from Glen Cove

[Sam Spade]

Read my post in NY-23 - kind of outlines what I see.

[rbt48]

I'd guess that Suozzi is going to lose:

             COUNTY EXECUTIVE
         962 EDS COUNTED     1,137 EDS IN RACE
   CANDIDATE NAME                      PARTY  RESULTS   CANDIDATE TOTAL

 THOMAS R SUOZZI                          D    87,335
 THOMAS R SUOZZI                          I     5,477
 THOMAS R SUOZZI                          W     2,869    95,681
 EDWARD P MANGANO                         R    93,663
 EDWARD P MANGANO                         X     4,538    98,201
 STEVEN HANSEN                            C               8,017

[rbt48]

Well maybe not:
             COUNTY EXECUTIVE
       1,004 EDS COUNTED     1,137 EDS IN RACE
   CANDIDATE NAME                      PARTY  RESULTS   CANDIDATE TOTAL

 THOMAS R SUOZZI                          D    92,576
 THOMAS R SUOZZI                          I     5,817
 THOMAS R SUOZZI                          W     3,074   101,467
 EDWARD P MANGANO                         R    97,822
 EDWARD P MANGANO                         X     4,754   102,576
 STEVEN HANSEN                            C               8,347

[patrick1]

Ha.  Looks like the Conservative Party vote may lose this one for Mangano.

[Smash255]

      COUNTY EXECUTIVE
       1,062 EDS COUNTED     1,137 EDS IN RACE
   CANDIDATE NAME                      PARTY  RESULTS   CANDIDATE TOTAL

 THOMAS R SUOZZI                          D    99,738
 THOMAS R SUOZZI                          I     6,228
 THOMAS R SUOZZI                          W     3,282   109,248
 EDWARD P MANGANO                         R   104,404
 EDWARD P MANGANO                         X     5,094   109,498
 STEVEN HANSEN                            C               8,901

        COUNTY LEGISLATOR 14TH DISTRICT
          49 EDS COUNTED        57 EDS IN RACE
   CANDIDATE NAME                      PARTY  RESULTS   CANDIDATE TOTAL

 DAVID L MEJIAS                           D     5,280
 DAVID L MEJIAS                           I       568
 DAVID L MEJIAS                           W       236     6,084
 JOSEPH V BELESI                          R     5,079
 JOSEPH V BELESI                          C       896     5,975

[Smash255]

28 Ed's left Suozzi up by 313

         COUNTY EXECUTIVE
       1,109 EDS COUNTED     1,137 EDS IN RACE
   CANDIDATE NAME                      PARTY  RESULTS   CANDIDATE TOTAL

 THOMAS R SUOZZI                          D   104,947
 THOMAS R SUOZZI                          I     6,534
 THOMAS R SUOZZI                          W     3,470   114,951
 EDWARD P MANGANO                         R   109,263
 EDWARD P MANGANO                         X     5,375   114,638
 STEVEN HANSEN                            C               9,297


28 Ed's left County Controller Weitzman down by 609

 COUNTY COMPTROLLER
       1,109 EDS COUNTED     1,137 EDS IN RACE
   CANDIDATE NAME                      PARTY  RESULTS   CANDIDATE TOTAL

 HOWARD S WEITZMAN                        D   100,873
 HOWARD S WEITZMAN                        I     7,231
 HOWARD S WEITZMAN                        W     3,714   111,818
 GEORGE MARAGOS                           R    95,958
 GEORGE MARAGOS                           C    16,451   112,409

3 ed's left Mejias up by 42

             COUNTY LEGISLATOR 14TH DISTRICT
          52 EDS COUNTED        57 EDS IN RACE
   CANDIDATE NAME                      PARTY  RESULTS   CANDIDATE TOTAL

 DAVID L MEJIAS                           D     5,648
 DAVID L MEJIAS                           I       602
 DAVID L MEJIAS                           W       264     6,514
 JOSEPH V BELESI                          R     5,507
 JOSEPH V BELESI                          C       965     6,472

[Mr.Phips]

It looks like Suozzi will squeak it out. 

[Smash255]

What will be interesting to watch if Mejias holds on is Denise Ford from Long Beach.  Ford is a Registered Democrat who caucuses with the Republicans.  The Dems haven't run against her the last two times, endorsing her both times, and she has worked with the Dems more than any other Republican in the Legislature.  How much will they target Ford to caucus with the Dems?

[Smash255]

One thing is for sure, comparing this to 05 when we had the exact same offices up for election, turnout was ABSOLUTELY BRUTAL and the biggest drop off in turnout look like they were in the Dem districts.

[Smash255]

Mejias up 92, 55 of 57 precincts reporting


             COUNTY LEGISLATOR 14TH DISTRICT
          55 EDS COUNTED        57 EDS IN RACE
   CANDIDATE NAME                      PARTY  RESULTS   CANDIDATE TOTAL

 DAVID L MEJIAS                           D     6,033
 DAVID L MEJIAS                           I       629
 DAVID L MEJIAS                           W       286     6,948
 JOSEPH V BELESI                          R     5,834
 JOSEPH V BELESI                          C     1,022     6,856

[patrick1]

well looks like this is headed for a recount in County Executive.   It should be interesting.

[Smash255]

5 ED's left for both County Executive and County Controller.  Suozzi up 425

      COUNTY EXECUTIVE
       1,132 EDS COUNTED     1,137 EDS IN RACE
   CANDIDATE NAME                      PARTY  RESULTS   CANDIDATE TOTAL

 THOMAS R SUOZZI                          D   107,361
 THOMAS R SUOZZI                          I     6,703
 THOMAS R SUOZZI                          W     3,568   117,632
 EDWARD P MANGANO                         R   111,719
 EDWARD P MANGANO                         X     5,498   117,217
 STEVEN HANSEN                            C               9,497


Weitzman down 428

    COUNTY COMPTROLLER
       1,132 EDS COUNTED     1,137 EDS IN RACE
   CANDIDATE NAME                      PARTY  RESULTS   CANDIDATE TOTAL

 HOWARD S WEITZMAN                        D   103,209
 HOWARD S WEITZMAN                        I     7,377
 HOWARD S WEITZMAN                        W     3,821   114,407
 GEORGE MARAGOS                           R    98,047
 GEORGE MARAGOS                           C    16,788   114,835


Looks like 3 of the remaining 5 ED's left are from the Town of Hemsptead, 1 from Town of Oyster Bay, 1 from Glen Cove