Which Party Will Control Congress?

[Mr.Phips]

Senate: Democrats
House: Republicans

Healthcare reform will cause the democrats to lose in a landslide in 2010.  They openly declared war on the American people with their vote yesterday.  Republicans will win around 50 house seats and 6-7 senate seats.

Yeah, not passing healthcare reform helped Democrats greatly in 1994, right?

They're in a damned if you damned if you don't situation.

Had Democrats passed reform in 1994, they would have held the House. 

[Smash255]

Senate: Democrats
House: Republicans

Healthcare reform will cause the democrats to lose in a landslide in 2010.  They openly declared war on the American people with their vote yesterday.  Republicans will win around 50 house seats and 6-7 senate seats.

Yeah, not passing healthcare reform helped Democrats greatly in 1994, right?

That is only one of two explanations and we are going to find out which one is correct in 2010.

Democrats go by that interpretation.
Republicans say that it was because they were trying to pass something that Americans did not want.

Americans did not want this bill that the house passed - that much is clear and I tend to think the second explanation will be the one that is correct.

Additionally, we don't just have to flip congressional seats in Republican leaning districts to win a majority.  Dem leaning districts will be up for grabs just as republican leaning districts were in 2006.  So we won't need to win every single one of the Bush/McCain congressional districts back to assemble the majority.  Obviously, that will be part of it - a decent size part, but we will pick up Obama districts as well.

1.  The American public wanted the public option

2.  The American public still views the Dems in MUCH better shape than the GOP. 

3.  While they weren't all that thrilled with the way Obama or the Dems handled the health care situation, they rated FAR higher than the GOP.

4.  Anyone who thinks the GOP can pick up over 50 seats is a moron.

[The Duke]

I can't see the Republicans gaining fewer than 50 seats.  We are entering the greatest period of political volatility since the Civil War.  Expect wild swings from one party to the other until someone manages to finally solve some of the problems the country faces.

List the 50 that are bound to switch.

This is a stupid question to ask because at this point in the ’08 cycle no one would have thought ID-1 was vulnerable.  And if someone had posted on this board that ID-1 was vulnerable they would have been skewered.  Seats end up getting lost in wave elections that you never would have thought would get lost.

Who in 1993 was predicting that Tom Foley would lose his seat?

But I will answer nonetheless.

Here are the 43 seats where I think Republicans have a better than 50/50 shot:
AL-2, AL-5, AZ-5, AZ-8, CA-11, CO-3, CO-4, FL-8, FL-22, FL-24, GA-8, ID-1, IL-8, IL-11, IL-14, IN-8, IN-9, LA-3, MI-7, MI-9, MN-1, MS-1, NH-1, NH-2, NJ-3, NM-2, NY-20, NY-23, NY-29, NC-11, OH-15, OH-16, OH-18, PA-3, PA-4, PA-7, PA-8, PA-10, TX-23, VA-2, VA-5, VA-9, WI-8

CA-11? AZ-08? CO-03? FL-22?  IL-08?  IL-11?  IN-08?  IN-09?  MI-09? MN-01?  NY-20?  NC-11?  OH-16?  OH-18?  PA-04?  PA-08?  VA-09?  WI-08?  Are you freakin serious?  Have you seen some of the crappy(or nonexistant) candidates Republicans have in these seats?

Seems to me the Dems won the House with some pretty weak candidates of their own.  In any case, New Jersey and Virginia have to be very encouraging to anyone who has thought of running for Congress as a Repblican.  Methinks our recruiting is not over.

[Mr.Phips]

I can't see the Republicans gaining fewer than 50 seats.  We are entering the greatest period of political volatility since the Civil War.  Expect wild swings from one party to the other until someone manages to finally solve some of the problems the country faces.

List the 50 that are bound to switch.

This is a stupid question to ask because at this point in the ’08 cycle no one would have thought ID-1 was vulnerable.  And if someone had posted on this board that ID-1 was vulnerable they would have been skewered.  Seats end up getting lost in wave elections that you never would have thought would get lost.

Who in 1993 was predicting that Tom Foley would lose his seat?

But I will answer nonetheless.

Here are the 43 seats where I think Republicans have a better than 50/50 shot:
AL-2, AL-5, AZ-5, AZ-8, CA-11, CO-3, CO-4, FL-8, FL-22, FL-24, GA-8, ID-1, IL-8, IL-11, IL-14, IN-8, IN-9, LA-3, MI-7, MI-9, MN-1, MS-1, NH-1, NH-2, NJ-3, NM-2, NY-20, NY-23, NY-29, NC-11, OH-15, OH-16, OH-18, PA-3, PA-4, PA-7, PA-8, PA-10, TX-23, VA-2, VA-5, VA-9, WI-8

CA-11? AZ-08? CO-03? FL-22?  IL-08?  IL-11?  IN-08?  IN-09?  MI-09? MN-01?  NY-20?  NC-11?  OH-16?  OH-18?  PA-04?  PA-08?  VA-09?  WI-08?  Are you freakin serious?  Have you seen some of the crappy(or nonexistant) candidates Republicans have in these seats?

Seems to me the Dems won the House with some pretty weak candidates of their own.  In any case, New Jersey and Virginia have to be very encouraging to anyone who has thought of running for Congress as a Repblican.  Methinks our recruiting is not over.

New Jersey and Virginia were won over extremely weak Democratic opponents.  The filing deadlines are closing soon in many states. 

[nhmagic]

Senate: Democrats
House: Republicans

Healthcare reform will cause the democrats to lose in a landslide in 2010.  They openly declared war on the American people with their vote yesterday.  Republicans will win around 50 house seats and 6-7 senate seats.

Yeah, not passing healthcare reform helped Democrats greatly in 1994, right?

That is only one of two explanations and we are going to find out which one is correct in 2010.

Democrats go by that interpretation.
Republicans say that it was because they were trying to pass something that Americans did not want.

Americans did not want this bill that the house passed - that much is clear and I tend to think the second explanation will be the one that is correct.

Additionally, we don't just have to flip congressional seats in Republican leaning districts to win a majority.  Dem leaning districts will be up for grabs just as republican leaning districts were in 2006.  So we won't need to win every single one of the Bush/McCain congressional districts back to assemble the majority.  Obviously, that will be part of it - a decent size part, but we will pick up Obama districts as well.

1.  The American public wanted the public option

2.  The American public still views the Dems in MUCH better shape than the GOP. 

3.  While they weren't all that thrilled with the way Obama or the Dems handled the health care situation, they rated FAR higher than the GOP.

4.  Anyone who thinks the GOP can pick up over 50 seats is a moron.

1. No matter how many times you guys say this the polling does not bear you out, whether its Rasmussen or Gallup or PPP.  And irregardless of the public option, all the polling showed that Americans did not support the bill.

2 If the GOP runs the right candidates in the right districts, we will do fine.  The public does not view the Dems like they do Obama, and their and his numbers are decreasing by the day.

3.Where?

4. Anyone who thinks they cant is an idiot who cant read the tea leaves.

[Mr.Phips]

Senate: Democrats
House: Republicans

Healthcare reform will cause the democrats to lose in a landslide in 2010.  They openly declared war on the American people with their vote yesterday.  Republicans will win around 50 house seats and 6-7 senate seats.

Yeah, not passing healthcare reform helped Democrats greatly in 1994, right?

That is only one of two explanations and we are going to find out which one is correct in 2010.

Democrats go by that interpretation.
Republicans say that it was because they were trying to pass something that Americans did not want.

Americans did not want this bill that the house passed - that much is clear and I tend to think the second explanation will be the one that is correct.

Additionally, we don't just have to flip congressional seats in Republican leaning districts to win a majority.  Dem leaning districts will be up for grabs just as republican leaning districts were in 2006.  So we won't need to win every single one of the Bush/McCain congressional districts back to assemble the majority.  Obviously, that will be part of it - a decent size part, but we will pick up Obama districts as well.

1.  The American public wanted the public option

2.  The American public still views the Dems in MUCH better shape than the GOP. 

3.  While they weren't all that thrilled with the way Obama or the Dems handled the health care situation, they rated FAR higher than the GOP.

4.  Anyone who thinks the GOP can pick up over 50 seats is a moron.

1. No matter how many times you guys say this the polling does not bear you out, whether its Rasmussen or Gallup or PPP.  And irregardless of the public option, all the polling showed that Americans did not support the bill.

2 If the GOP runs the right candidates in the right districts, we will do fine.  The public does not view the Dems like they do Obama, and their and his numbers are decreasing by the day.

3.Where?

4. Anyone who thinks they cant is an idiot who cant read the tea leaves.

I want to now where their numbers are "decreasing by the day".  Democrats and Obama certainly took a hit in August, but have pretty much stabilized since then. 

[Smash255]

Senate: Democrats
House: Republicans

Healthcare reform will cause the democrats to lose in a landslide in 2010.  They openly declared war on the American people with their vote yesterday.  Republicans will win around 50 house seats and 6-7 senate seats.

Yeah, not passing healthcare reform helped Democrats greatly in 1994, right?

That is only one of two explanations and we are going to find out which one is correct in 2010.

Democrats go by that interpretation.
Republicans say that it was because they were trying to pass something that Americans did not want.

Americans did not want this bill that the house passed - that much is clear and I tend to think the second explanation will be the one that is correct.

Additionally, we don't just have to flip congressional seats in Republican leaning districts to win a majority.  Dem leaning districts will be up for grabs just as republican leaning districts were in 2006.  So we won't need to win every single one of the Bush/McCain congressional districts back to assemble the majority.  Obviously, that will be part of it - a decent size part, but we will pick up Obama districts as well.

1.  The American public wanted the public option

2.  The American public still views the Dems in MUCH better shape than the GOP.  

3.  While they weren't all that thrilled with the way Obama or the Dems handled the health care situation, they rated FAR higher than the GOP.

4.  Anyone who thinks the GOP can pick up over 50 seats is a moron.

1. No matter how many times you guys say this the polling does not bear you out, whether its Rasmussen or Gallup or PPP.  And irregardless of the public option, all the polling showed that Americans did not support the bill.

2 If the GOP runs the right candidates in the right districts, we will do fine.  The public does not view the Dems like they do Obama, and their and his numbers are decreasing by the day.

3.Where?

4. Anyone who thinks they cant is an idiot who cant read the tea leaves.

1. CNN/OR 10/30-11/1

"Now thinking specifically about the health insurance plans available to most Americans, would you favor or oppose creating a public health insurance option administered by the federal government that would compete with plans offered by private health insurance companies"

Favor 55%
Oppose 44%

Ipsos 10/29-11/1

"Creation of a public entity to directly compete with existing health insurance companies."

Favor 51%
Oppose 43%

NBC/WSJ 10/22-10/25

"And thinking about one aspect of the debate on health care legislation -- Would you favor or oppose creating a public health care plan administered by the federal government that would compete directly with private health insurance companies?"

Favor 48%
Oppose 42%

Gallup 10/16-10/19

"Now thinking about some of the specifics of health care legislation being considered: If Congress passes a health care bill, do you think it should or should not include a public, government-run insurance plan to compete with plans offered by private insurance companies?

Should 50%
Should Not 46%

ABC/WP 10/15-10/18
"Would you support or oppose having the government create a new health insurance plan to compete with private health insurance plans?"

Support 57%
Oppose 40%


2. Obama's numbers have been in the low 50's for about 3 months.  Really not going down.  As far as how the parties rate

Dems

NBC/WSJ 10/22-10/25
"Now I'm going to read you the names of several public figures and organizations, and I'd like you to rate your feelings toward each one as either very positive, somewhat positive, neutral, somewhat negative, or very negative. If you don't know the name, please just say so. The Democratic Party.

Very Positive 14%
Somewhat Positive 28%
Neutral 20%
Somewhat Negative 14%
Very Negative 22%

Total Positive 42%
Total Negative 36%
Positive - Negative +6%

CNN/OR 10/16-10/18
Favorable 53%
Unfavorable 41%

GOP

NBC/WSJ 10/22-10/25
"Now I'm going to read you the names of several public figures and organizations, and I'd like you to rate your feelings toward each one as either very positive, somewhat positive, neutral, somewhat negative, or very negative. If you don't know the name, please just say so. The Republican Party.

Very Positive 6%
Somewhat Positive 19%
Neutral 27%
Somewhat Negative 23%
Very Negative 23%
Total Positive 25%
Total Negative 46%
Positive - Negative -21%

CNN/OR
"Next, we'd like to get your overall opinion of some people in the news. As I read each name, please say if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of these people -- or if you have never heard of them. The Republican Party."

Favorable 36%
Unfavorable 54%

3  
NBC/WSJ 10/22-10/25

"Do you generally approve or disapprove of the job Barack Obama is doing in handling the issue of health care reform?"

Approve 43%
Disapprove 48%

"Do you generally approve or disapprove of the way that Republicans in Congress are handling the issue of health care reform?"

Approve 23%
Disapprove 64%

CNN/ OR  10/16-10/18

"Who do you trust more to handle major changes in the country's health care system: Barack Obama or the Republicans in Congress?"

Barack Obama 50%
Republicans in Congress 34%

4.  Yes anyone who thinks the GOP will pick up 50 seats is a moron.  Obama's ratings are far better than Bush's in 06.  Yet you expect the GOP to pick up more seats than the Dems did in 06/  The Dems still have the advantage in the Generic Ballot, the Democratic Party is rated higher.  All of these things = thinking the GOP will pick up 50 seats = Moron

5.  Game, Set, Match

[bullmoose88]

There is no credible Republican challenger in PA-8...yet...heck I dont think there is a Republican challenger period here yet...as for the credible/legit ones, I'd suggest that they are looking quite hard to see how Murphy's numbers go after the healthcare battle.  There is interest, Republicans did very very very well in Bucks County during the 2009 elections, winning the most contested battle (the DA race) by 15-16 pts.  The Democratic candidate was very polished, very well funded, and had the eye catching endorsements.

[Magic 8-Ball]

Democrats keep both chambers.

All of the attacks that the Republicans have leveled against Democrats may have undercut their support, but it's not like their favorability is growing appreciably.  Until that changes, they don't have much of chance.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Not only are Obama's numbers substantially higher that Bush's in '06 (or Clinton's in 1994 for that matter) but nobody from the current Republican leadership can inspire and lead like Gingrich did.
Tell what you want about Newt, he offered fresh ideas and solutions for the problems of that era. The only thing Bhoener offers is "No to Everything", "Tax Cuts" and "Bomb Iran!".

And if the Dems pass health care it won't be only the Republican base that will be energized. The Democrats will be much more enthusiastic and eager to go to the polls than they were this year, especially to support congressmen that voted for the bill.     

[minionofmidas]

Ah, but that's a big if.

And if the Dems pass health care...     

[Landslide Lyndon]

Ah, but that's a big if.

And if the Dems pass health care...      

I think they have long passed the point of no return. Nobody but themselves can stop it from becoming a law.
If they balk and don't use reconciliation in the Senate then they will fully deserve the drubbing they are going to take next year.

And I disagree with Lunar that such a move will alienate moderates and independents. These people want results, no matter how they come. If the Democrats fail, then the voters will rightfully come to the conclusion that they are a bunch of innefective wussies.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

People will finally grow tired of the corrupt Republican and Democratic establishment, and replace them with solid streight up Greens and Conservatives. Hoffman will become Senator from New York and be elected Senate Majority Leader for the new conservative rule, while Cynthia McKinney will be Speaker in the House with their new green majoity. In 2012 Chris Daggett will defeat Obama.

They will all decide to go Libertairian and abolish the Goverment.

[Nhoj]

Republicans will "control" both the senate and house. Democrats will still be however in the majority in both. So all in all not much will change.

[Lunar]

And I disagree with Lunar that such a move will alienate moderates and independents. These people want results, no matter how they come. If the Democrats fail, then the voters will rightfully come to the conclusion that they are a bunch of innefective wussies.

They're gonna get results by 2010?

[Landslide Lyndon]

And I disagree with Lunar that such a move will alienate moderates and independents. These people want results, no matter how they come. If the Democrats fail, then the voters will rightfully come to the conclusion that they are a bunch of innefective wussies.

They're gonna get results by 2010?

Passing the bill is a result itself.
And many provisions will start imediately (preexisting conditions, etc.).

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It is pretty clear that there will be some realignment in the next years election like we saw this year.  I think if the Dems aren't successful in bringing down the unemployment it will be Reagan revisited in 1983, Dems lose 4 seats in the House AR, De, CO, and NV probably and lose 26 House seats, mostly all the seats that changed hands in 2008, not 2006.  It will remains to be seen whether in that environment Lieberman will switch parties.

[nhmagic]

Senate: Democrats
House: Republicans

Healthcare reform will cause the democrats to lose in a landslide in 2010.  They openly declared war on the American people with their vote yesterday.  Republicans will win around 50 house seats and 6-7 senate seats.

Yeah, not passing healthcare reform helped Democrats greatly in 1994, right?

That is only one of two explanations and we are going to find out which one is correct in 2010.

Democrats go by that interpretation.
Republicans say that it was because they were trying to pass something that Americans did not want.

Americans did not want this bill that the house passed - that much is clear and I tend to think the second explanation will be the one that is correct.

Additionally, we don't just have to flip congressional seats in Republican leaning districts to win a majority.  Dem leaning districts will be up for grabs just as republican leaning districts were in 2006.  So we won't need to win every single one of the Bush/McCain congressional districts back to assemble the majority.  Obviously, that will be part of it - a decent size part, but we will pick up Obama districts as well.

1.  The American public wanted the public option

2.  The American public still views the Dems in MUCH better shape than the GOP.  

3.  While they weren't all that thrilled with the way Obama or the Dems handled the health care situation, they rated FAR higher than the GOP.

4.  Anyone who thinks the GOP can pick up over 50 seats is a moron.

1. No matter how many times you guys say this the polling does not bear you out, whether its Rasmussen or Gallup or PPP.  And irregardless of the public option, all the polling showed that Americans did not support the bill.

2 If the GOP runs the right candidates in the right districts, we will do fine.  The public does not view the Dems like they do Obama, and their and his numbers are decreasing by the day.

3.Where?

4. Anyone who thinks they cant is an idiot who cant read the tea leaves.

1. CNN/OR 10/30-11/1

"Now thinking specifically about the health insurance plans available to most Americans, would you favor or oppose creating a public health insurance option administered by the federal government that would compete with plans offered by private health insurance companies"

Favor 55%
Oppose 44%

Ipsos 10/29-11/1

"Creation of a public entity to directly compete with existing health insurance companies."

Favor 51%
Oppose 43%

NBC/WSJ 10/22-10/25

"And thinking about one aspect of the debate on health care legislation -- Would you favor or oppose creating a public health care plan administered by the federal government that would compete directly with private health insurance companies?"

Favor 48%
Oppose 42%

Gallup 10/16-10/19

"Now thinking about some of the specifics of health care legislation being considered: If Congress passes a health care bill, do you think it should or should not include a public, government-run insurance plan to compete with plans offered by private insurance companies?

Should 50%
Should Not 46%

ABC/WP 10/15-10/18
"Would you support or oppose having the government create a new health insurance plan to compete with private health insurance plans?"

Support 57%
Oppose 40%


2. Obama's numbers have been in the low 50's for about 3 months.  Really not going down.  As far as how the parties rate

Dems

NBC/WSJ 10/22-10/25
"Now I'm going to read you the names of several public figures and organizations, and I'd like you to rate your feelings toward each one as either very positive, somewhat positive, neutral, somewhat negative, or very negative. If you don't know the name, please just say so. The Democratic Party.

Very Positive 14%
Somewhat Positive 28%
Neutral 20%
Somewhat Negative 14%
Very Negative 22%

Total Positive 42%
Total Negative 36%
Positive - Negative +6%

CNN/OR 10/16-10/18
Favorable 53%
Unfavorable 41%

GOP

NBC/WSJ 10/22-10/25
"Now I'm going to read you the names of several public figures and organizations, and I'd like you to rate your feelings toward each one as either very positive, somewhat positive, neutral, somewhat negative, or very negative. If you don't know the name, please just say so. The Republican Party.

Very Positive 6%
Somewhat Positive 19%
Neutral 27%
Somewhat Negative 23%
Very Negative 23%
Total Positive 25%
Total Negative 46%
Positive - Negative -21%

CNN/OR
"Next, we'd like to get your overall opinion of some people in the news. As I read each name, please say if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of these people -- or if you have never heard of them. The Republican Party."

Favorable 36%
Unfavorable 54%

3  
NBC/WSJ 10/22-10/25

"Do you generally approve or disapprove of the job Barack Obama is doing in handling the issue of health care reform?"

Approve 43%
Disapprove 48%

"Do you generally approve or disapprove of the way that Republicans in Congress are handling the issue of health care reform?"

Approve 23%
Disapprove 64%

CNN/ OR  10/16-10/18

"Who do you trust more to handle major changes in the country's health care system: Barack Obama or the Republicans in Congress?"

Barack Obama 50%
Republicans in Congress 34%

4.  Yes anyone who thinks the GOP will pick up 50 seats is a moron.  Obama's ratings are far better than Bush's in 06.  Yet you expect the GOP to pick up more seats than the Dems did in 06/  The Dems still have the advantage in the Generic Ballot, the Democratic Party is rated higher.  All of these things = thinking the GOP will pick up 50 seats = Moron

5.  Game, Set, Match

Sorry buddy, try again using numbers from respectable pollsters.  The only respectable pollster you have in there is Gallup and that is on one question out of all others.  Gallup's question was terribly worded as well - its asking people to consider other aspects, aspects of the bill they may or may not know to ask a question on the public option.  Additionally, party leanings have changed dramatically since last year and Gallup still surveys more democrat leaners (12 pts worth), when the leaning gap has at most been at 6 points, at most its at 3 points right now.  I am sure, however, that you took a painstaking amount of time assembling the most favorable polls to match what you said without resorting to putting in the KOS polls and looking uncredible.

[Lunar]

Uh, I've met the NBC/WSJ pollster and it's pretty ridiculous to say he's not credible, one of the top results from 2008 if I remember right.

[Smash255]

Senate: Democrats
House: Republicans

Healthcare reform will cause the democrats to lose in a landslide in 2010.  They openly declared war on the American people with their vote yesterday.  Republicans will win around 50 house seats and 6-7 senate seats.

Yeah, not passing healthcare reform helped Democrats greatly in 1994, right?

That is only one of two explanations and we are going to find out which one is correct in 2010.

Democrats go by that interpretation.
Republicans say that it was because they were trying to pass something that Americans did not want.

Americans did not want this bill that the house passed - that much is clear and I tend to think the second explanation will be the one that is correct.

Additionally, we don't just have to flip congressional seats in Republican leaning districts to win a majority.  Dem leaning districts will be up for grabs just as republican leaning districts were in 2006.  So we won't need to win every single one of the Bush/McCain congressional districts back to assemble the majority.  Obviously, that will be part of it - a decent size part, but we will pick up Obama districts as well.

1.  The American public wanted the public option

2.  The American public still views the Dems in MUCH better shape than the GOP.  

3.  While they weren't all that thrilled with the way Obama or the Dems handled the health care situation, they rated FAR higher than the GOP.

4.  Anyone who thinks the GOP can pick up over 50 seats is a moron.

1. No matter how many times you guys say this the polling does not bear you out, whether its Rasmussen or Gallup or PPP.  And irregardless of the public option, all the polling showed that Americans did not support the bill.

2 If the GOP runs the right candidates in the right districts, we will do fine.  The public does not view the Dems like they do Obama, and their and his numbers are decreasing by the day.

3.Where?

4. Anyone who thinks they cant is an idiot who cant read the tea leaves.

1. CNN/OR 10/30-11/1

"Now thinking specifically about the health insurance plans available to most Americans, would you favor or oppose creating a public health insurance option administered by the federal government that would compete with plans offered by private health insurance companies"

Favor 55%
Oppose 44%

Ipsos 10/29-11/1

"Creation of a public entity to directly compete with existing health insurance companies."

Favor 51%
Oppose 43%

NBC/WSJ 10/22-10/25

"And thinking about one aspect of the debate on health care legislation -- Would you favor or oppose creating a public health care plan administered by the federal government that would compete directly with private health insurance companies?"

Favor 48%
Oppose 42%

Gallup 10/16-10/19

"Now thinking about some of the specifics of health care legislation being considered: If Congress passes a health care bill, do you think it should or should not include a public, government-run insurance plan to compete with plans offered by private insurance companies?

Should 50%
Should Not 46%

ABC/WP 10/15-10/18
"Would you support or oppose having the government create a new health insurance plan to compete with private health insurance plans?"

Support 57%
Oppose 40%


2. Obama's numbers have been in the low 50's for about 3 months.  Really not going down.  As far as how the parties rate

Dems

NBC/WSJ 10/22-10/25
"Now I'm going to read you the names of several public figures and organizations, and I'd like you to rate your feelings toward each one as either very positive, somewhat positive, neutral, somewhat negative, or very negative. If you don't know the name, please just say so. The Democratic Party.

Very Positive 14%
Somewhat Positive 28%
Neutral 20%
Somewhat Negative 14%
Very Negative 22%

Total Positive 42%
Total Negative 36%
Positive - Negative +6%

CNN/OR 10/16-10/18
Favorable 53%
Unfavorable 41%

GOP

NBC/WSJ 10/22-10/25
"Now I'm going to read you the names of several public figures and organizations, and I'd like you to rate your feelings toward each one as either very positive, somewhat positive, neutral, somewhat negative, or very negative. If you don't know the name, please just say so. The Republican Party.

Very Positive 6%
Somewhat Positive 19%
Neutral 27%
Somewhat Negative 23%
Very Negative 23%
Total Positive 25%
Total Negative 46%
Positive - Negative -21%

CNN/OR
"Next, we'd like to get your overall opinion of some people in the news. As I read each name, please say if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of these people -- or if you have never heard of them. The Republican Party."

Favorable 36%
Unfavorable 54%

3  
NBC/WSJ 10/22-10/25

"Do you generally approve or disapprove of the job Barack Obama is doing in handling the issue of health care reform?"

Approve 43%
Disapprove 48%

"Do you generally approve or disapprove of the way that Republicans in Congress are handling the issue of health care reform?"

Approve 23%
Disapprove 64%

CNN/ OR  10/16-10/18

"Who do you trust more to handle major changes in the country's health care system: Barack Obama or the Republicans in Congress?"

Barack Obama 50%
Republicans in Congress 34%

4.  Yes anyone who thinks the GOP will pick up 50 seats is a moron.  Obama's ratings are far better than Bush's in 06.  Yet you expect the GOP to pick up more seats than the Dems did in 06/  The Dems still have the advantage in the Generic Ballot, the Democratic Party is rated higher.  All of these things = thinking the GOP will pick up 50 seats = Moron

5.  Game, Set, Match

Sorry buddy, try again using numbers from respectable pollsters.  The only respectable pollster you have in there is Gallup and that is on one question out of all others.  Gallup's question was terribly worded as well - its asking people to consider other aspects, aspects of the bill they may or may not know to ask a question on the public option.  Additionally, party leanings have changed dramatically since last year and Gallup still surveys more democrat leaners (12 pts worth), when the leaning gap has at most been at 6 points, at most its at 3 points right now.  I am sure, however, that you took a painstaking amount of time assembling the most favorable polls to match what you said without resorting to putting in the KOS polls and looking uncredible.

In other words, all the polls prove you wrong so you don't believe them....   By the way as far as the KOS poll goes, it is a poll for KOS, but it is not done by a partisan pollster, its done by KOS

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Who in 1993 was predicting that Tom Foley would lose his seat?

I don't know if anyone did, but it's pretty obvious that they ought to have done - Foley won by about 10pts in 1992 in a district that could certainly have never been called a natural Democratic seat; he would always have been vulnerable in a wave, Speaker or not. There were other reasons as well - Washington had blanket primaries in September back then and Foley (the only Democratic candidate) took just 35% of the vote, not a good sign. And he, er, also trailed pretty consistently in the polls (though never by much - but then he didn't lose by much). This is without considering the toxic issue of term limits.

Just out of random interest and to add context, I'll note the 2008 margin in all the districts you've listed. Not that such things are always the best guide to future voting patterns, but, as I wrote, context is useful:

"Better than 50/50 shot"

AL-2, 0.6%
AL-5, 3.6%
AZ-5, 9.6%
AZ-8, 11.9%
CA-11, 10.5%
CO-3, 23.2%
CO-4, 12.4%
FL-8, 4.0%
FL-22, 9.3%
FL-24, 16.1%
GA-8, 14.4%
ID-1, 1.2%
IL-8, 21.4%
IL-11, 23.9%
IL-14, 15.5%
IN-8, 29.5%
IN-9, 19.3%
LA-3, unop.
MI-7, 2.3%
MI-9, 9.4%
MN-1, 29.6%
MS-1, 10.6%
NH-1, 5.9%
NH-2, 15.0%
NJ-3, 3.3%
NM-2, 11.9%
NY-20, 24.2% - 0.4% in the special election
NY-23, special election gain - lead of about 3pts.
NY-29, 1.9%
NC-11, 26.1%
OH-15, 0.7%
OH-16, 10.7%
OH-18, 19.7%
PA-3, 2.5%
PA-4, 11.7%
PA-7, 19.2%
PA-8, 15.1%
PA-10, 12.6%
TX-23, 13.8%
VA-2, 4.9%
VA-5, 0.2%
VA-9, unop.
WI-8, 8.1%

"about a 50/50 shot"

FL-2, 23.8%
GA-12, 32.0%
IN-2, 36.8%
IA-3, 14.2%
KS-3, 16.8%
KY-3, 18.7%
MD-1, 0.8%
NY-9 13, 27.6
NY-19, 17.3
NY-24, 3.9
NC-8, 10.7
PA-11, 3.2%
TX-17, 7.5%
TX-27, 19.6%
TX-28, 39.5%
WV-1, unop.
WV-3, 33.8%

"long shot seats"

CA-47, 44.1%
MS-4, 49.1%
MO-4, 31.8%
NY-1, 16.7%
NC-2, 35.6%
NC-7, 37.7%
ND-AL, 23.9%
OK-2, 40.9%
PA-12, 15.7%
PA-17, 27.3%
SC-5, 24.5
SD-AL, 35.1%
TN-4, 20.9%
TN-6, 48.8% (against an independent, mind)
UT-2, 28.8%
WA-3, 28.0%
WI-7, 21.6%

[Gustaf]

The senate seems rock-solid Democratic. On the other hand, that's sort of what I thought (but the other way around) this far out from 2006. If it really becomes a wave, there may be surprises. Still, it would take a miracle. I'm not going to say that it is impossible, because there are a sufficient number of possible retirees and senators in Republican states for it to be possible. The obvious problem for the GOP is that most of the weak Democratic senators were knocked off in 2004.

The House is obviously always more of a possibility, but I don't think the GOP can overcome the current majority in one cycle.

[The Duke]

Bump.  Some of the predictions I made here are freaky good.  I've made my share of dumb predictions in my life, but you gotta give me this one.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

So, my Senate predictions were correct beside Colorado.

[OSR stands with Israel]

I can't see the Republicans gaining fewer than 50 seats.  We are entering the greatest period of political volatility since the Civil War.  Expect wild swings from one party to the other until someone manages to finally solve some of the problems the country faces.

Wow this guy was spot on