Minnesota state legislature analysis: 2010

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I hope to get this done before the end of the year. Very subject to change. Later I'll do more research on who's retiring and whose running. But here's a start. Color coded by current incumbent.

SENATE

District 1: Safe DFL. GOP didn't even run a candidate here last time.
District 2: Likely DFL. It'll take one of the uber-GOP years the hacks are predicting to win here.
District 3: Likely DFL. See above.
District 4: Lean DFL. We have an incumbent but she didn't win by much in 2006. The district did vote for McCain.
District 5: Safe DFL. As safe as the Minneapolis/St. Paul districts.
District 6: Safe DFL. *yawn*
District 7: Safe DFL. The safest outstate district.
District 8: Likely DFL. It's a traditionally Democratic district but it's exurbanizing. For an idea, the northern half voted over 60% for Obama, the southern half for McCain. Still hard to see it fall.
District 9: Likely DFL. It's not an uber-Dem district but we have a strong incumbent.
District 10: Toss Up. Somehow a Democrat holds this seat. How Republican is it? ~55% for McCain, >50% for Coleman, oh and Mark Kennedy won it. Yeah seriously. Yet he's a smart incumbent, can't rule him out.
District 11: Likely GOP. The GOP somehow PICKED UP this seat in 2006. It's not an uber-Republican seat, (~52% McCain) but still.
District 12: Likely GOP. Safe GOP is the (gay) incumbent is the candidate again as he likely will be, but if some far righty successfully takes him out like was tried in 2006 it's not a sure thing.
District 13: Likely GOP. The GOP's other pickup in 2006 thanks to Dean Johnson's gaffe. Johnson has taken a job at the University of Minnesota and basically retired. This is probably gone.
District 14: Safe GOP. Michele Bachmann didn't win this district, but came way too close.
District 15: Lean DFL. Incumbent is running against Bachmann. District isn't safe, (whereabouts of 52% Obama), but close enough.
District 16: Lean GOP. See my write-up, it's a miracle the DFL holds this seat.
District 17: Toss Up. Probably the most vulnerable DFL seat after 16. Incumbent barely won in 2006. Exurbanizing. McCain got ~55%. This one is going to be targeted hard.
District 18: Safe GOP. They'll never have any trouble holding this seat.
District 19: Safe GOP. This is a >50% Coleman seat.
District 20: Likely DFL. Marginally DFL district federally, overwhelmingly locally. The only reason I haven't marked it as safe is I haven't confirmed if the incumbent is running again. If so, safe.
District 21: Likely GOP. Solid GOP district with a big winning incumbent. See above for why it's not safe.
District 22: Lean DFL. Strong incumbent in a rather GOP district, but one willing to ticket split.
District 23: Safe DFL. This is my old home, Mankato, enough said.
District 24: Safe GOP. Too strong of an incumbent in too GOP of a district.
District 25: Lean DFL. Won by a strong margin in a special election in early 2008 against the best candidate the GOP could've nominated. Won by Obama, but narrowly which is why its not stronger.
District 26: Lean GOP. Note the special election here.
District 27: Strong DFL. Incumbent won by 2:1 last time in a strong Obama district.
District 28: Tossup. Incumbent retiring now.
District 29: Strong GOP. Rochester is basically a GOP gerrymander even if it was unintentional. The incumbent is popular and one of the few GOP moderates remaining in the legislature in a barely McCain district.
District 30: Lean DFL. Incumbent won by an OK margin and it voted for Obama, but not that strong.
District 31: Likely DFL. Obama won this by a very impressive margin considering the area. Incumbent won by a bit in 2006, somehow an independent got almost 18%, but that's kind of moot.
District 32: Safe GOP. Uber-GOP exurbs.
District 33: Safe GOP. Not as republican but Republican enough.
District 34: Safe GOP. Carver County.
District 35: Safe GOP. Ugly exurbs in a district where the incumbent ran unopposed last time.
District 36: Safe GOP. Take a guess what the district is like.
District 37: Likely GOP. It's not as Republican as a district as the previous ones, but I don't see them losing it.
District 38: Lean DFL. This is exactly the type of seat the GOP shouldn't have lost, and the fact they now lost all three bits to it (Senate + both House) makes it a top target. We are still talking about a ~54% Obama district though...
District 39: Safe DFL. The President Pro Tempore's seat.
District 40: See 38, basically the same. Though the Bloomington part is pretty solid DFL.
District 41: Lean GOP. The Republican incumbent won by a wide margin in 2006 with a Green curiously taking over 14%, yet he still won with over 56% but the seat was also won by Obama and there's a strong DFL showing in the House seats. It was also won by Coleman though so while it'll be targeted it's probably not likely to flip.
District 42: Likely GOP. It was much closer than 41 in 2006 and won by Obama, but Coleman took almost 50% and it contains Erik Paulsen's old House seat. Probably not flipping if it didn't in 2006.
District 43: Likely DFL. This is Terri Bonoff's old seat (the women who lost to Madia in the House primary. If she moved on up it could flip if vacant, but I don't see her losing here, especially in a ~54% Obama district.
District 44: Safe DFL. Incumbent won by over 2:1 last time, gave over 60% to Obama, over 50% to Franken.
District 45: Safe DFL. Even though this seat had one GOP House Rep until 2004, the seat as a whole is a 60% Obama district.
District 46: Safe DFL. This is another >60% Obama, >50% Franken seat.
District 47: Lean DFL. This one isn't like the others, it's too far out, was a Coleman seat and wasn't won by Obama by much, nor did the incumbent in 2006 in a 2 point victory. However it's also a seat where the GOP fortunes just never work out, see the House seats in it.
District 48: Likely GOP. This was close last time, however it's also a ~54% McCain seat dominated by the GOP at all lower levels.
District 49: Likely GOP. See above, though Obama did oddly win the lower House district narrowly (and has a DFL rep.)
District 50: Safe DFL. Welcome back to safe territory.
District 51: Lean DFL. It has a DFL incumbent and voted for Obama but also a rather strong GOP presence.
District 52: Likely GOP. This is Michele Bachmann's old seat. Now it's actually not a nutty district as it is a generally reliable GOP one that she got elected in for being a Republican and not making an ass of herself until after 2002 when she was last elected in it. The incumbent didn't win by much in 2006 and is almost as crazy as her, but ultimately the base here might be just too tough to crack. Worth noting though that the House district Bachmann lives in voted against her and for Obama by the narrowest of margins.
District 53: Lean DFL. This is a formerly strong GOP district that they managed to lose by always running crazies. It'll probably happen again but it's also no doubt high on their target list.
District 54: Safe DFL, not much worth mentioning.
District 55: Safe DFL, the same.
District 56: Lean DFL. This is the highest numbered district that could conceivably elect a Republican, and did pre-2006. But like most seats of the type, the GOP suffered a collapse since. A target no doubt, but still a tough one, especially if the teabaggers control the nominating.
District 57: Safe DFL. The incumbent here is a likely rising star, she's an attractive young woman from a family with a history of representing the DFL in the legislature.
District 58: Safe DFL. We are now in Minneapolis.
District 59: Safe DFL, and the Senate Majority Leader's seat.
District 60: Safe DFL. This wonderful district gave its gay incumbent over 82% in 2006.
District 61: Safe DFL. This is both my district, and Obama's best in the state (around 88%).
District 62: Safe DFL.
District 63: Safe DFL. Despite not being entirely urban and "only" about 65% for Obama.
District 64: Safe DFL.
District 65: Safe DFL.
District 66: Safe DFL.
District 67: Safe DFL. Safe for the Majority Whip.

That's it for the Senate. The House will come up later.

[Хahar 🤔]

Map?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Added a bit more.

Also here's a metro map:

[ilikeverin]

Boo, you stopped too early!

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Like I said, I plan on having it done by the end of the year. I could probably finish Senate right now since a good chunk of the remaining seats are no-brainers.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Senate is done. I also noticed an error, it turns out that miraculously the DFL DOES hold District 16, despite it likely being MCCAIN'S BEST DISTRICT IN THE STATE. In a nutshell Pawlenty appointed the incumbent to a cabinet position, and there was a special election won by the DFL candidate by 85 votes in 2008. This is with Mark Olson winning 1462 votes as a write-in, Olson was the former incumbent for 16B and a notable theocrat who did not run for reelction after being convicted of wife-beating, yet ran for the Senate seat and somehow won the convention endorsement, the state GOP threw out all the stops to prevent him from winning the primary which was seen as the only possible way the GOP could lose the seat. Turns out the civil war was close enough.

Still Lisa Fobbe's victory was such a fluke I can't call it anything below Lean GOP. Fobbe is the Joseph Cao of the DFL.

[Хahar 🤔]

Is 17 more vulnerable than 16?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

No. SD17 is a historically DFL area being exurbanized and turning more Republican. 16 combines heavily Republican exurbs with Republican-leaning rural areas. The rural areas are what gave the seat to the DFL, but in a normal situation they won't. SD17 still has some DFL strongholds, but outside of a small Native Reservation, there is no such thing in SD16.

Counties in SD16:

Mille Lacs - 52-45 McCain (only county entirely in the district)
Morrison - 58-39 McCain (very small part of the county is in it)
Benton - 53-44 McCain (moderated by a liberal part of St. Cloud which is in it, yet is not in the district. The parts in the district are far more Republican)
Sherburne - 58-40 McCain (McCain actually won every precinct in the county except for another liberal portion of St. Cloud, which is once again not in the district.)

Yet in the Senate election Mille Lacs voted for Fobbe over GOP candidate Alison Krueger 55-42. The tiny part of Morrison was even stronger, 56-41, but once again, a very small part of the district. Benton voted for Krueger by 15 votes, essentially a tie. Sherburne voted 51-46 for Krueger. And it's over half the district.

BTW I think it's also worth noting the only parts of Sherburne not in SD16 are the aforementioned liberal part of St. Cloud and most of the town of Elk River, which is Republican but not as Republican as the rest of the county. The part of Sherburne in the district was probably over 60% McCain.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

BTW Sherburne County is home to, among other things, a car dealership that flashes Bible verses on its advertising billboards, and a "Christian-based bank" that basically offers to pray with you when you take out a loan.

And yet according to ARDA data it's one of the LEAST religious counties in Minnesota. Though it does make some sense, it's just full of fundies plus property tax hating gun nuts and rich people who all vote Republican. And not many liberal Christians.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

As of 2008, about 30% of housing in Sherburne was built after 2000... with a further quarter being built between 1990 and 1999.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

As of 2008, about 30% of housing in Sherburne was built after 2000... with a further quarter being built between 1990 and 1999.

I wonder how much of that is still inhabited.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Here's something I just caught I'm surprised I didn't before, 16A has a DFL Representative despite being a 55% McCain seat. She won a very close race in 2008 with just over 50%, while the Senator took almost 53% in that portion of the district, but because of that that I might increase Fobbe's chances a bit. Somewhere between Tossup and Lean GOP. Granted though in 16B Fobbe took 44 to 36 for the DFL House candidate, unless she can replicate that again she is done.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

House time.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

District 1A: Lean DFL. This is a McCain district, but an area where local Democrats ALWAYS do better than their federal candidates.
District 1B: Likely DFL. This is a stronger Obama district.
District 2A: Likely DFL. See above.
District 2B: Lean DFL, Barely McCain seat, incumbent won by a large but not particularly impressive margin.
District 3A: Safe DFL. The Republicans aren't winning a Franken by double digits seat in northern Minnesota.
District 3B: Likely DFL. Not as overwhelmingly strong but strong enough.
District 4A: Lean DFL. Very DFL-leaning seat, odd just how close the Obama/incumbent's numbers are...
District 4B: Likely GOP. Welcome to our first GOP seat. Not a huge district but it's still McCain by 13 points.
District 5A: Safe DFL. Despite the incumbent running for Governor.
District 5B: Safe DFL. Not much else to say here.
District 6A: Safe DFL. Once again not much to say...
District 6B: Safe DFL. Despite being mostly yucky suburbia. Amazing really.
District 7A: Safe DFL. Not much to say here.
District 7B: Safe DFL. This is essentially as safe as inner city Minneapolis.
District 8A: Safe DFL. Thank God the exurbs haven't gotten here yet.
District 8B: Lean DFL. They have gotten here sadly and McCain won.
District 9A: Likely GOP. Despite being a conservative Republican in a district Obama won by 17 points, Morrie Lanning isn't going anywhere if he won by double digits in 2006 and 2008.
District 9B: Likely DFL. And yet ironically this far more Republican, Obama <50% with a slight plurality seat is also super-safe for its incumbent.
District 10A: Likely GOP. This is just a strong all around Republican seat.
District 10B: Safe GOP. Ditto but safer.
District 11A: Likely GOP. Maybe if this seat opens up it's winnable.
District 11B: Toss Up. McCain by double digits seats, couldn't break 53% in 2008...
District 12A: Likely DFL. Slight McCain seat but incumbent won in a landslide.
District 12B: Toss Up. Oh boy this is one is going to be hard. Incumbent won by less than a hundred votes in a McCain by 16 points district.
District 13A: Safe GOP. Just don't see how this flips.
District 13B: Lean DFL. Should be somewhere between there and Toss Up really, but I'll be optimistic.
District 14A: Safe GOP. I just don't see how this one falls.
District 14B: Likely DFL. This is McCain by double digits seats, but the right wing incumbent won by 2:1.
District 15A: Likely GOP. GOP would have to mess something up really bad to lose this one.
District 15B: Safe DFL. Wow St. Cloud is quite politically polarized.
District 16A: Toss Up. See my write up above.
District 16B: Safe GOP. McCain got over 60%, Bachmann won by over 17 points, and I'm never setting foot here unless absolutely necessary.
District 17A: Safe GOP. Don't see how a Republican incumbent loss in a district McCain won by 15 points.
District 17B: Toss Up. This area is just becoming too unfriendly.
District 18A: Safe GOP. Incumbents who win with over 60% won't lose in a McCain by almost 20 points seat.
District 18B: Safe GOP. Not quite as big, but big enough.
District 19A: Safe GOP. Was oddly close in 2008 for a seat this exurban, but I don't think that matters at this point.
District 19B: Safe GOP. See above except not close.
District 20A: Lean DFL. This seat was oddly close in 2008, the incumbent underran Obama. But I see it was open then.
District 20B: Likely DFL. And safe for the incumbent if he runs again.
District 21A: Lean GOP. Marty Seifert is running for Governor so it's open and that's why it's not safe.
District 21B: Likely GOP. It was close in 2008 but the window of opportunity is probably closed.
District 22A: Safe GOP. Wasn't as strong for McCain as I expected though.
District 22B: Safe GOP. Also not that strong for McCain but incumbent landslided, maybe if stands down but as far as I know he's not.
District 23A: Likely DFL. I'm very familiar with this seat having lived across the river from it for 5 years. Close in 2006 when open, landslide in 2008, was Republican 2002-2004, and won by Obama by 5 points.
District 23B: Safe DFL. This is Mankato.
District 24A: Safe GOP. Boring landslide district.
District 24B: Likely GOP. Both the Presidential and State House numbers were close in 2008, but it's probably too late to take it.
District 25A: Safe GOP. Staunchly conservative.
District 25B: Likely DFL. Amusing seat, close in 2002 and 2004 with the same candidates, in 2006 the DFL candidate FINALLY won in a squeaker, relatively close in 2008, former incumbent lost special Senate election. Outlook bleak for the GOP now though.
District 26A: Lean DFL. Incumbent won this seat while open big in 2008, but it's a fairly GOP leaning district in general. Obama gained a lot in the two larger towns in it, Waseca and Owatonna. But the rural parts are still extremely Republican.
District 26B: Likely DFL. This is a more Democratic seat (even if Obama barely won it) and incumbent landslided.
District 27A: Safe DFL. A DFL incumbent isn't losing in this seat.
District 27B: Safe DFL. See above.
District 28A: Lean GOP. Obama won it and it was close in 2008 but I don't think that'll amount to much now.
District 28B: Likely GOP. Much more Republican.
District 29A: Safe GOP. Republican seat held by a far right winger.
District 29B: Safe DFL. Very strong for Obama, incumbent won with over 60%.
District 30A: Safe DFL. Ditto.
District 30B: Lean DFL. Now we have a McCain seat with a DFL incumbent. But winning by double digits...
District 31A: Safe DFL. Obama won with almost 60% and the incumbent won 2:1.
District 31B: Tossup. This is probably Obama's best district held by a Republican. Won by almost 12 points by Obama and by about 2 points for the incumbent. Top DFL target.
District 32A: Safe GOP. Just not losing in this area.
District 32B: Likely GOP. McCain won by the narrowest of margins and the incumbent by an unimpressive margin, but the DFL probably already maxed here.
District 33A: Safe GOP. More unwinnable exurbs.
District 33B: Likely GOP. Not as unwinnable and McCain only won by 4 points, but probably enough.
District 34A: Safe GOP. This is probably the only other district in the state McCain got over 60% in.
District 34B: Safe GOP. Not as strong for McCain but the GOP isn't losing Carver County.
District 35A: Safe GOP. Another one despite McCain's unimpressive numbers.
District 35B: Safe GOP. Stronger for McCain too.
District 36A: Safe GOP. More territory they won't lose.
District 36B: Safe GOP. The same.
District 37A: Lean GOP. Back in winnable territory. Obama won, the incumbent won by about the inverse. More winnable if open.
District 37B: Toss up. Narrow win for Obama and incumbent. A top target after the obvious ones.
District 38A: Lean DFL. Obama landslided, incumbent won solidly by not hugely.
District 38B: Tossup. Tim Pawlenty's old district. Won by Obama and by the incumbent by a smaller margin in a rematch of 2006 which had a narrow GOP win. Fun to watch.
District 39A: Safe DFL. Too close to the city now.
District 39B: Safe DFL. Obama won big but the incumbent got over 70%.
District 40A: Likely DFL. Solid win for Obama, bigger for incumbent.
District 40B: Safe DFL. Won largely by Obama and hugely by incumbent.
District 41A: Lean DFL. This is a very interesting seat. Was held by a moderate Republican up until last year. He voted to override Pawlenty's gas tax veto and hence was taken out by teabaggers at the convention. He kept his promise not to run in the primary but ran in the general as a third party candidate under the "Moderate Republican" ticket. Splitting the vote allowed the teabagger to win with 36.69%. A hard right Republican in a district Obama won by 12 points...do the math.
District 41B: Likely DFL. Incumbent won by 5 points, Obama won by almost 10. Probably not territory to flip.
District 42A: Likely DFL. Big time winner in a Obama +10 seat.
District 42B: Safe GOP. Erik Paulsen's old seat. Was won narrowly by Obama by the incumbent won by 17 points in an open seat.
District 43A: Likely GOP. Incumbent probably won by too much in a seat Obama didn't win by a lot.
District 43B: Lean DFL. Would be likely or safe if the incumbent hadn't curiously underran Obama (and he was the incumbent then too.)
District 44A: Safe DFL. Landslide.
District 44B: Safe DFL. Ditto.
District 45A: Likely DFL, and it's only not safe because it was GOP until 2004.
District 45B: Safe DFL. This on the other hand...
District 46A: Safe DFL. Not much to discuss.
District 46B: Safe DFL. Still not much...
District 47A: Likely DFL. This was actually a McCain seat, however the incumbent won big and has always been one of those ones that just won't go.
District 47B: Likely DFL. Go figure this Obama seat is probably less safe than 47A, the incumbent underperforms and actually underran Obama in raw vote totals, but probably not close enough.
District 48A: Safe GOP. We're back in the nasty territory.
District 48B: Likely GOP. Ditto but not quite as bad.
District 49A: Safe GOP. Also very bad.
District 49B: Lean DFL. This isn't as bad, was narrowly won by Obama and DFL incumbent won by a lot, but I can't call this seat safe or likely.
District 50A: Safe DFL. This is safe.
District 50B: Safe DFL. Not as safe, but safe.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

More of the House done.

[minionofmidas]

District 4A: Lean DFL. Very DFL-leaning seat, odd just how close the Obama/incumbent's numbers are...

Racially polarized. Lots of Ojibwa here and in 3A and 3B too.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

True. Also discovered it was an open seat. Could've went GOP without Obama coattails then. Still incumbents are really hard to dislodge in that part of the state.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

A few more done.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

It won't let me save over 10000 characters in my post so I'll finish here:

District 51A: Lean GOP. We held this seat until 2008, but the incumbent retired, and the DFL ran a bad candidate, in my opinion getting arrested for smoking pot near a school is a plus but not in the voters' eyes I guess. Obama didn't win the district by much, <50%, but the incumbent also underran McCain.
District 51B: Safe DFL. Won't lose this.
District 52A: Safe GOP. Out in the exurbs, incumbent won 2:1.
District 52B: Likely GOP. Rebecca Otto's old seat until her loss in 2004, voted very narrowly for Obama, but probably not winnable.
District 53A: Toss Up. In a nutshell the incumbent who was a Club for Growth/Minnesota Taxpayers League nut lost in 2006 in what could be the wealthiest district in the state because he was just that crazy. McCain won but with <50%. Really there is no reason the DFL should hold this seat, and we only do because the GOP keeps with the nuts, but luck may run out.
District 53B: Likely GOP. Obama won by a fairly solid margin but the incumbent won bigger.
District 54A: Safe DFL. Too close the city now.
District 54B: Safe DFL. A bit further away, but otherwise the same.
District 55A: Safe DFL. See above.
District 55B: Safe DFL. Incumbent is even stronger even if the district as strong.
District 56A: Lean DFL. Close to the highest seat the GOP could conceivably win but we still have it, incumbent didn't win hugely but still did.
District 56B: Likely DFL. See above except the incumbent won by 10 points.
District 57A: Safe DFL. Super strong incumbent in a strong area.
District 57B: Likely GOP. The highest seat they hold and can win. Incumbent won big.
District 58A: Safe DFL. It's north Minneapolis for crying out loud!
District 58B: Safe DFL. I don't see the GOP winning Keith Ellison's old seat.
District 59A: Safe DFL. even if Obama got "only" 76%.
District 59B: Safe DFL. The incumbent may be a nutjob who massively underran Obama but that doesn't matter in this seat.
District 60A: Safe DFL. Even if Kelliher isn't running again to run for Governor, it's moot. Maybe the GOP can run that candidate again whose entire campaign was that he was gay.
District 60B: Safe DFL. Nothing to say really.
District 61A: Safe DFL. Home sweet home.
District 61B: Safe DFL. The Green candidate got over 3x the Republican vote last time, and the Republican candidate was a young woman who basically was a Democrat on every issue except she was militantly pro-life.
District 62A: Safe DFL. Nothing to say.
District 62B: Safe DFL. See above.
District 63A: Safe DFL. Only about half this seat is in Minneapolis but doesn't matter really.
District 63B: Safe DFL. This is out of Minneapolis but irrelevant really.
District 64A: Safe DFL. It's St. Paul now.
District 64B: Safe DFL. Probably McCain's best seat in the Twin Cities but that's still >70% Obama and the incumbent.
District 65A: Safe DFL. Incumbent underran Obama by a few points, yawn.
District 65B: Safe DFL. Nothing to say.
District 66A: Safe DFL. Hey Obama got exactly 10,000 votes here. Cool.
District 66B: Safe DFL. Not entirely in St. Paul, doesn't matter.
District 67A: Safe DFL. LOL@the incumbent's name.
District 67B: Safe DFL. Nothing to say.

That's it for now. Might update it or look up some more info and add more stuff.

[Badger]

Can you remind me which seats are currently represented by Hmong?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Can you remind me which seats are currently represented by Hmong?

65A and Senate District 67.

[SamInTheSouth]

I hope to get this done before the end of the year. Very subject to change. Later I'll do more research on who's retiring and whose running. But here's a start. Color coded by current incumbent.

Why is northern Minnesota so heavily Democratic?  That seems odd to me.

[Hash]

I hope to get this done before the end of the year. Very subject to change. Later I'll do more research on who's retiring and whose running. But here's a start. Color coded by current incumbent.

Why is northern Minnesota so heavily Democratic?  That seems odd to me.

Depends which part of northern Minnesota. If you mean northeastern Minnesota around Duluth, it's the Iron Range.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Northeastern Minnesota has the Iron Range yes, a huge mining union stronghold. The Socialist Party ran well there before the New Deal, Lake County was the only county in Minnesota to vote for Hoover in 1932, but only because Norman Thomas split the vote. The Socialist vote merged with FDR in 1936 and it's been Democratic since.

The northwest is a heavily Scandinavian area with a strong Democratic tradition, the Farmer Labor Party was popular there too. It's not so Democratic at the presidential level anymore, Bush won the area both times, but the local Democratic party machines dominate big and secure lots of state funds for the area. It also has the Red Lake Reservation and a sizable Native American population, most of the House district up there around 7% Native. The biggest problem is Roseau County, which simply lacks the Democratic tradition (a quick study of the county shows that it appears to have more fundamentalist Lutherans than liberal ones). It was Bush's best county in the state in 2004. Thankfully it's not very big, but it's enough to make 1A winnable for the GOP and swung it to McCain. But it just hasn't been their time their lately.