Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
October 25, 2014, 02:49:48 pm
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Don't forget to get your 2013 Gubernatorial Endorsements and Predictions in!

+  Atlas Forum
|-+  Election Archive
| |-+  2010 Elections (Moderator: Joe Republic)
| | |-+  Gallup Generic Ballot: Republicans by 4
« previous next »
Pages: [1] Print
Author Topic: Gallup Generic Ballot: Republicans by 4  (Read 1212 times)
Rowan
RowanBrandon
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 6714


Political Matrix
E: 1.94, S: 4.70

View Profile
« on: November 11, 2009, 01:48:55 pm »
Ignore

PRINCETON, NJ -- Republicans have moved ahead of Democrats by 48% to 44% among registered voters in the latest update on Gallup's generic congressional ballot for the 2010 House elections, after trailing by six points in July and two points last month.

As was the case in last Tuesday's gubernatorial elections, independents are helping the Republicans' cause. In the latest poll, independent registered voters favor the Republican candidate by 52% to 30%. Both parties maintain similar loyalty from their bases, with 91% of Democratic registered voters preferring the Democratic candidate and 93% of Republican voters preferring the Republican.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/124226/Republicans-Edge-Ahead-Democrats-2010-Vote.aspx
Logged
Umengus
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1934
Belgium


View Profile
« Reply #1 on: November 11, 2009, 01:55:55 pm »
Ignore

Registered voters. Imagine with likely... Democrats are in trouble...

Logged

Re: France 2012: the official thread
Reply #622 on: July 25, 2011, 04:44:20 pm  

Quote from: Umengus on July 25, 2011, 03:19:09 pm

against Aubry, Sarkozy will win. Aubry is a very bad candidate for prime time : no charisma, no sympathy, muslim connection, stupid ideas,... and sarkozy is a good candidate...

but against hollande, sarkozy will lose."

Censured by REALPOLITIK due to "offensive content".

"It ought to be noted that there's no freedom of speech here." xahar
Dan the Roman
liberalrepublican
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1795
United States


P
View Profile
« Reply #2 on: November 11, 2009, 03:36:28 pm »
Ignore

Yes, just like September 2008.

http://realclearpolitics.blogs.time.com/2009/11/11/not-to-rain-on-republicans-parade/
Logged
Vepres
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 8103
United States


Political Matrix
E: 6.26, S: -7.39

View Profile
« Reply #3 on: November 11, 2009, 03:45:05 pm »
Ignore


Assuming there isn't another financial crisis these hold more credibility.
Logged

LOL, Failure

Alright, if Republicans gain less than 75 seats, I'll prominently display my failure in my signature.
Dan the Roman
liberalrepublican
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1795
United States


P
View Profile
« Reply #4 on: November 11, 2009, 03:52:09 pm »
Ignore


Assuming there isn't another financial crisis these hold more credibility.

Assuming you bought their September figures, and assumed that the financial crisis moved them. In any case, I think the margin is probably correct, but I am skeptical of Gallup polling it, since they get a number of outliers on a much more regular basis than SUSA, Rasmussen, or I guess after this year we can add PPP to the list.

I also think that the December of the year before an election is almost always the rock-bottom for the governing party. Look at Senator Kruger going down 68-32 in 1993, as well as the VA and NJ results, then see what happened in both states in 1994. Or 1995 and 1996. Or 1997, where it looked like the GOP might get to 60.

I think the reason for this is that people don't like Obama and don't like the Democrats. But next year they will also have the option of adding specific Republican candidates to that list. The GOP will probably have a decent year coming off 2006 and 2008, but given the present direction many of their campaigns seem headed, I expect them to be extremely vulnerable to a Democratic rally, especially in places like IL, CT, and NH.
Logged
Beet
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 16060


View Profile
« Reply #5 on: November 11, 2009, 03:57:29 pm »
Ignore

Jesus. Scary. Kind of expected, but scary nonetheless.
Logged

Senator North Carolina Yankee
North Carolina Yankee
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 29855
United States


View Profile
« Reply #6 on: November 11, 2009, 04:11:23 pm »
Ignore


Assuming there isn't another financial crisis these hold more credibility.

Assuming you bought their September figures, and assumed that the financial crisis moved them. In any case, I think the margin is probably correct, but I am skeptical of Gallup polling it, since they get a number of outliers on a much more regular basis than SUSA, Rasmussen, or I guess after this year we can add PPP to the list.

I also think that the December of the year before an election is almost always the rock-bottom for the governing party. Look at Senator Kruger going down 68-32 in 1993, as well as the VA and NJ results, then see what happened in both states in 1994. Or 1995 and 1996. Or 1997, where it looked like the GOP might get to 60.

I think the reason for this is that people don't like Obama and don't like the Democrats. But next year they will also have the option of adding specific Republican candidates to that list. The GOP will probably have a decent year coming off 2006 and 2008, but given the present direction many of their campaigns seem headed, I expect them to be extremely vulnerable to a Democratic rally, especially in places like IL, CT, and NH.

Rasmussen has the GOP ahead by six on the Generic Congressional ballot.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/mood_of_america/generic_congressional_ballot
 
Logged

He's BACK!!! His Time Has Come Once Again! Now We're All Gonna Die! No One is Safe From His Wrath!



Dan the Roman
liberalrepublican
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1795
United States


P
View Profile
« Reply #7 on: November 11, 2009, 05:14:43 pm »
Ignore


Assuming there isn't another financial crisis these hold more credibility.

Assuming you bought their September figures, and assumed that the financial crisis moved them. In any case, I think the margin is probably correct, but I am skeptical of Gallup polling it, since they get a number of outliers on a much more regular basis than SUSA, Rasmussen, or I guess after this year we can add PPP to the list.

I also think that the December of the year before an election is almost always the rock-bottom for the governing party. Look at Senator Kruger going down 68-32 in 1993, as well as the VA and NJ results, then see what happened in both states in 1994. Or 1995 and 1996. Or 1997, where it looked like the GOP might get to 60.

I think the reason for this is that people don't like Obama and don't like the Democrats. But next year they will also have the option of adding specific Republican candidates to that list. The GOP will probably have a decent year coming off 2006 and 2008, but given the present direction many of their campaigns seem headed, I expect them to be extremely vulnerable to a Democratic rally, especially in places like IL, CT, and NH.

Rasmussen has the GOP ahead by six on the Generic Congressional ballot.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/mood_of_america/generic_congressional_ballot
 

Ah but I find 43-37 more plausible than 48-44. The GOP being at 48 with registered voters is a giant anomaly, even with the pollsters who agree on margin.
Logged
Vepres
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 8103
United States


Political Matrix
E: 6.26, S: -7.39

View Profile
« Reply #8 on: November 11, 2009, 05:54:21 pm »
Ignore


Assuming there isn't another financial crisis these hold more credibility.

Assuming you bought their September figures, and assumed that the financial crisis moved them. In any case, I think the margin is probably correct, but I am skeptical of Gallup polling it, since they get a number of outliers on a much more regular basis than SUSA, Rasmussen, or I guess after this year we can add PPP to the list.

I also think that the December of the year before an election is almost always the rock-bottom for the governing party. Look at Senator Kruger going down 68-32 in 1993, as well as the VA and NJ results, then see what happened in both states in 1994. Or 1995 and 1996. Or 1997, where it looked like the GOP might get to 60.

I think the reason for this is that people don't like Obama and don't like the Democrats. But next year they will also have the option of adding specific Republican candidates to that list. The GOP will probably have a decent year coming off 2006 and 2008, but given the present direction many of their campaigns seem headed, I expect them to be extremely vulnerable to a Democratic rally, especially in places like IL, CT, and NH.

I know this will be meaningless next year, but it's an interesting measure of the national political climate.
Logged

LOL, Failure

Alright, if Republicans gain less than 75 seats, I'll prominently display my failure in my signature.
Pages: [1] Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Logout

Powered by SMF 1.1.20 | SMF © 2013, Simple Machines