Gallup Generic Ballot: Republicans by 4

[Rowan]

PRINCETON, NJ -- Republicans have moved ahead of Democrats by 48% to 44% among registered voters in the latest update on Gallup's generic congressional ballot for the 2010 House elections, after trailing by six points in July and two points last month.

As was the case in last Tuesday's gubernatorial elections, independents are helping the Republicans' cause. In the latest poll, independent registered voters favor the Republican candidate by 52% to 30%. Both parties maintain similar loyalty from their bases, with 91% of Democratic registered voters preferring the Democratic candidate and 93% of Republican voters preferring the Republican.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/124226/Republicans-Edge-Ahead-Democrats-2010-Vote.aspx

[Umengus]

Registered voters. Imagine with likely... Democrats are in trouble...

[Dan the Roman]

Yes, just like September 2008.

http://realclearpolitics.blogs.time.com/2009/11/11/not-to-rain-on-republicans-parade/

[Vepres]

Yes, just like September 2008.

http://realclearpolitics.blogs.time.com/2009/11/11/not-to-rain-on-republicans-parade/

Assuming there isn't another financial crisis these hold more credibility.

[Dan the Roman]

Yes, just like September 2008.

http://realclearpolitics.blogs.time.com/2009/11/11/not-to-rain-on-republicans-parade/

Assuming there isn't another financial crisis these hold more credibility.

Assuming you bought their September figures, and assumed that the financial crisis moved them. In any case, I think the margin is probably correct, but I am skeptical of Gallup polling it, since they get a number of outliers on a much more regular basis than SUSA, Rasmussen, or I guess after this year we can add PPP to the list.

I also think that the December of the year before an election is almost always the rock-bottom for the governing party. Look at Senator Kruger going down 68-32 in 1993, as well as the VA and NJ results, then see what happened in both states in 1994. Or 1995 and 1996. Or 1997, where it looked like the GOP might get to 60.

I think the reason for this is that people don't like Obama and don't like the Democrats. But next year they will also have the option of adding specific Republican candidates to that list. The GOP will probably have a decent year coming off 2006 and 2008, but given the present direction many of their campaigns seem headed, I expect them to be extremely vulnerable to a Democratic rally, especially in places like IL, CT, and NH.

[Beet]

Jesus. Scary. Kind of expected, but scary nonetheless.

[Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Yes, just like September 2008.

http://realclearpolitics.blogs.time.com/2009/11/11/not-to-rain-on-republicans-parade/

Assuming there isn't another financial crisis these hold more credibility.

Assuming you bought their September figures, and assumed that the financial crisis moved them. In any case, I think the margin is probably correct, but I am skeptical of Gallup polling it, since they get a number of outliers on a much more regular basis than SUSA, Rasmussen, or I guess after this year we can add PPP to the list.

I also think that the December of the year before an election is almost always the rock-bottom for the governing party. Look at Senator Kruger going down 68-32 in 1993, as well as the VA and NJ results, then see what happened in both states in 1994. Or 1995 and 1996. Or 1997, where it looked like the GOP might get to 60.

I think the reason for this is that people don't like Obama and don't like the Democrats. But next year they will also have the option of adding specific Republican candidates to that list. The GOP will probably have a decent year coming off 2006 and 2008, but given the present direction many of their campaigns seem headed, I expect them to be extremely vulnerable to a Democratic rally, especially in places like IL, CT, and NH.

Rasmussen has the GOP ahead by six on the Generic Congressional ballot.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/mood_of_america/generic_congressional_ballot
 

[Dan the Roman]

Yes, just like September 2008.

http://realclearpolitics.blogs.time.com/2009/11/11/not-to-rain-on-republicans-parade/

Assuming there isn't another financial crisis these hold more credibility.

Assuming you bought their September figures, and assumed that the financial crisis moved them. In any case, I think the margin is probably correct, but I am skeptical of Gallup polling it, since they get a number of outliers on a much more regular basis than SUSA, Rasmussen, or I guess after this year we can add PPP to the list.

I also think that the December of the year before an election is almost always the rock-bottom for the governing party. Look at Senator Kruger going down 68-32 in 1993, as well as the VA and NJ results, then see what happened in both states in 1994. Or 1995 and 1996. Or 1997, where it looked like the GOP might get to 60.

I think the reason for this is that people don't like Obama and don't like the Democrats. But next year they will also have the option of adding specific Republican candidates to that list. The GOP will probably have a decent year coming off 2006 and 2008, but given the present direction many of their campaigns seem headed, I expect them to be extremely vulnerable to a Democratic rally, especially in places like IL, CT, and NH.

Rasmussen has the GOP ahead by six on the Generic Congressional ballot.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/mood_of_america/generic_congressional_ballot
 

Ah but I find 43-37 more plausible than 48-44. The GOP being at 48 with registered voters is a giant anomaly, even with the pollsters who agree on margin.

[Vepres]

Yes, just like September 2008.

http://realclearpolitics.blogs.time.com/2009/11/11/not-to-rain-on-republicans-parade/

Assuming there isn't another financial crisis these hold more credibility.

Assuming you bought their September figures, and assumed that the financial crisis moved them. In any case, I think the margin is probably correct, but I am skeptical of Gallup polling it, since they get a number of outliers on a much more regular basis than SUSA, Rasmussen, or I guess after this year we can add PPP to the list.

I also think that the December of the year before an election is almost always the rock-bottom for the governing party. Look at Senator Kruger going down 68-32 in 1993, as well as the VA and NJ results, then see what happened in both states in 1994. Or 1995 and 1996. Or 1997, where it looked like the GOP might get to 60.

I think the reason for this is that people don't like Obama and don't like the Democrats. But next year they will also have the option of adding specific Republican candidates to that list. The GOP will probably have a decent year coming off 2006 and 2008, but given the present direction many of their campaigns seem headed, I expect them to be extremely vulnerable to a Democratic rally, especially in places like IL, CT, and NH.

I know this will be meaningless next year, but it's an interesting measure of the national political climate.