Bush surge in MN?

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

This post is for anyone but particularly Minnesotans.

There seems to be an energy among the state's Republicans that I have never seen here before.  I travel 62 in South Minneapolis quite frequently and I have never seen a Bush sign to speak of. 

Tonight there were huge Bush signs everywhere along 62 and highway 100 and I saw zero Kerry signs.  I thought I was in the twilight zone.  That area is probably 60/40 democrat.  And on an overpass were a bunch of Republicans waving Bush signs.

Has anyone seen an increase in Bush support where you live?

Could this be the first Presidential election in 32 years that MN elects a Republican?

It probably means that all the Kerry signs got torn down.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

There is a surge....I just think it is going to fall just short on election night.  as i understand it in MN and WI you can register to vote on the day of the election?  that scares me, espically in WI

Yes you can register the same day and all you need is a driver's license.  I think that's crazy!  Recipe for disaster.

Yeah, no Democratic voter registrations to destroy. How awful.

[J. J.]

There is a surge....I just think it is going to fall just short on election night.  as i understand it in MN and WI you can register to vote on the day of the election?  that scares me, espically in WI

Yes you can register the same day and all you need is a driver's license.  I think that's crazy!  Recipe for disaster.

Yeah, no Democratic voter registrations to destroy. How awful.

No they can just commit massive voter fraud, if they have a mind to.  It's not like they have to something complicated, like fill out a form all by themselves and put it in the mail.

[Napoleon XIV]

Don't polls have a tendency to underestimate Republican strength in MN?  Didn't they miss by 8pts in 2000?  Didn't Mason-Dixon show Bush tied or ahead?

(These aren't really rhetorical questions, I'm actually curious)

1st question.  No i don't think so Just the star tribune polls
2.  Yes they did
3. Yes but that was a month ago

Bush got 45.5% in 2000, the strongest showing since RR I think and even RR couldn't win.....: (

Well Reagan had to contend with Mondale being the hometown boy.

If Bush could get such a strong showing in 2000, then I'd daresay it's perfectly possible that we just might see Bush carry it at long last

[DFLofMN]

In all honesty Bush does have a chance here.  However, I still put the total at Kerry Advantage.  Don't forget the Iron Range.  Also, much of the trending towards Republican comes from the explosive growth of the Twin Cities suburbs and Exurbs (my own burb I grew up in was 10K when I was born and is now 50K, I'm only 24).  I believe it will be close, but it all comes down to turnout and I still think Dems have the advantage here.

[NHPolitico]

There is a surge....I just think it is going to fall just short on election night.  as i understand it in MN and WI you can register to vote on the day of the election?  that scares me, espically in WI

NH, too.

[The Vorlon]

This state is indeed legitimately trending towards the GOP over time.

This state has gone from bedrock Dem to pretty closely divided.

The GOP does well in the suburbs surrounding cities, and the ring around Minni/St Paul is all suburb, and population wise most of the state.

The GOP is also legitimately feeling good about Minnesota - to a person the troops on the ground feel like they have a real shot, and in a very close race this last bit of energy counts for something.

The fact that both Bush and Kerry keep going back to this state means it is still very much in play.

My take on Minnesota is that it is a lot like Pennsylvania.

In a VERY close race, Kerry should still, if only barely, hold the state.  The degree to which Kerry has to defend the state is good for Bush.

Bush is strong enough in Minnesota that without a spirited defense by the Dems, the state will fall.

Bush has a simple game plan, and a simple road to re-election.

If Bush holds Florida and Ohio he is re-elected. 

The degree to which GOP efforts in Minnesota require Kerry to not be engaged in the real war in Ohio and Florida, it is a tactical victory for Bush.

[ilikeverin]

I have seen the opposite.  I was very heartened when we drove to my cabin (to put the boat in our garage... and then we came right back!  URGH!  GIANT WASTE OF TIME >P) that I saw quite a few Kerry signs along the way.  In *rural* and *small town* Minnesota!

It was shocking.

Plus, I've seen TWO WHOLE KERRY SIGNS around my neighborhood

[Democratic Hawk]

Well, I hope Minnesota sticks with the Democrats. It will be close though, but not quite as close as Iowa or Wisconsin.

Dave

[DFLofMN]

I agree with Dem Hawk, In 2000, Gore won by a little over 2%, and Nader received 5.3%, now not all of that can be added to Gore, but I am willing to say that a sizable amount of that percentage would go for Kerry this time. 

[DFLofMN]

Oh one more thing too, the Republicans, are trying for this area as tactical move much like Vorlon said, Kerry could do that in NV and CO, but has been one step behind BC04.  Of all the Upper Mid-West Gore states WI is most likeley for Bush followed by Iowa, then MN. 

[jacob_101]

I agree with Dem Hawk, In 2000, Gore won by a little over 2%, and Nader received 5.3%, now not all of that can be added to Gore, but I am willing to say that a sizable amount of that percentage would go for Kerry this time. 

Let's give Gore all the Nader votes and you get 52/47.  I think it's quite possible the state has shifted 2% in 4 years.  Basically putting MN in the toss up category.

If I had to guess I would say Kerry wins, but they will likely be within 1% of each other.

Thanks for your insight Vorlon

[Mort from NewYawk]

Minnesota is to Democrats what Virginia is to Republicans.

Virginia's not as close to flipping as MN.

I'd say Minnesota is to Democrats what Nevada is to Republicans - turning, but not quite there yet.

[opebo]

Is Minnesota becoming more religious?

Just wondering if this is the Southern Style GOP growing up there or something else.

[jacob_101]

Is Minnesota becoming more religious?

Just wondering if this is the Southern Style GOP growing up there or something else.

Good question....Not that I notice.  A big part of it, I think, and I could be wrong, is that the DFL has had a lock on older voters, but not on younger voters.  In 2000 Bush was more popular among younger voters than older.

[DFLofMN]

There has always been a presence of evangelical christianity here.  Billy Grahm had his office in Minneapolis just until a couple of years ago, and there are some pretty right-wing chrisitan colleges here, Bethel and Northwestern of MN.  MN is becoming more like the rest of the nation though.  Many new residents from all parts of the country, and a more diverse group than say German/Irish/Italian/Polish Catholics and Norwegian/Finnish/Sweedish Lutherans,who tend to be fairly moderate in their political lives. 

Is Minnesota becoming more religious?

Just wondering if this is the Southern Style GOP growing up there or something else.

[Erc]

Newest Rasmussen publicly-released survey shows 47-47, 49-48 Bush with leaners...

Note also that some of the surveys were conducted before the last debate (that was last week, right?)

Bush 49 / Kerry 48 (with leaners) Tied @ 47 without leaners in Minnesota says Rasmussen

[emergingDmajority1]

latest Minnesota polls show Kerry +2 (GOP Strategic Vision 47-45) and Star Tribune +5 48-43. Everything since the Rasmussen poll shows Kerry inching away.

[freewayticket]

There is a surge....I just think it is going to fall just short on election night.  as i understand it in MN and WI you can register to vote on the day of the election?  that scares me, espically in WI

Yes you can register the same day and all you need is a driver's license.  I think that's crazy!  Recipe for disaster.

That is just so dumb...if you are too lazy to register earlier, you lost your chance in my opinion.  it just opens up opportunities for fraud

I agree, I wish the legislature would cut off the time you have to register to vote at the begining of September. None of this the day you vote, that is crazy. I would think with the fiasco in Florida four years ago and the charges of voter fraud this time around would cause them to react to that as they do everything else. With all the different ways to register there shouldn't be any excuse why you can't register before hand. And to ensure a safe and fair election I would definately get rid of voter registration the day of. The system is open to abuse. As far as there being a Republican trend going on. I think it's fair to say there is but I don't think it's going to push Bush over the top. I'm not saying he can't win here because he has a shot in Minnesota and the election will be close. But I think Kerry still has a very slight edge. In the future, if trends continue I think Repubs have a very good shot a winning Minnesota. I'm still looking for the Mason Dixon Poll that partners with the St.Paul Pioneer Press to come out. It could provide some insight.

[ATFFL]

latest Minnesota polls show Kerry +2 (GOP Strategic Vision 47-45) and Star Tribune +5 48-43. Everything since the Rasmussen poll shows Kerry inching away.

Right, SV shows Kery +2 and the Star Tribune has Bush +3 .  A tossup.

(Yes, I know the ST looks odd, but they have a long history of underestimating the Republicans by 8%.)