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Author Topic: Who are the most overrated candidates for 2010?  (Read 2548 times)
BeccaM
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« on: November 18, 2009, 01:42:48 pm »
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To me, the obvious choice has always been Charlie Crist, but people are finally starting to realize he's not a sure thing. It was a different story a few months ago though. Just about everything has gone wrong for him since and the once supposedly beloved and extraordinarily talented/charismatic politician might be taken down from the right. While I generally don't enjoy crusades of ideological purity from either side, I might enjoy seeing Crist get beat since he's always been a shameless opportunist and overrated governor.

The other would have to be Robin Carnahan. Everyone cites her EPIC HISTORIC LANDSLIDE VICTORY for Secretary of State as a reason why her winning the Senate race is inevitable. While impressive, it was still just Secretary of State. Not nearly as hyperpartisan as a Senate race and an office she could probably win just off of name recognition and sympathy alone.  Her campaign has been pretty disappointing and lacking in substance thus far. She just recently put a rather vague issues section on her website, while she's always had things like  a contest to name her new pony. It looks like she's just trying to remain inoffensive, cryptic, and ride on her name for now.  Most polls have her neck and neck with Blunt, a not so charismatic figure to say the least, and by election day their names will be equally familiar. If the mood is generally anti-Democratic by then, she could easily be defeated.

Third choice would be Mark Kirk, but I think everyone is realizing he's a long shot despite being the best the Illinois GOP could possibly come up with.
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Lunar
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« Reply #1 on: November 18, 2009, 02:02:46 pm »
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Great question.  I love it.

#1) CARLY FIORINA - people treat her as if she's not like the #6-7 seat the GOP will pick up (only in a massive wave) and hasn't proven herself a gaffe-prone failure during the McCain campaign already.  The challenge from DeVore will force her to the right and her failures as HP will doom her.  I mean, I'm sure the Boxer campaign is already lining up the former HP employees for ads, and they aren't afraid to hit hard.

Boxer's approvals aren't high, but unless Fiorina has a "hook" against Boxer, like the challengers against Dodd, Vitter, Dodd, etc. have, I don't think she can make enough mojo among minorities to get anywhere

#2)  Recently, Mark Kirk...he's making all kinds of really stupid mistakes to piss off his best ticket in the general election, the Chicago media.  He's drawn scathing reviews from the Tribune and the Sun-Times, both publications that used to fawn over him over his recent decision to go ballistics (with factual errors) about the stupidity over Gitmo folks in Illinois.

#3) Pick a Paulite.  


I guess these are all Republicans and my sleep-deprived brain is showing its inherent partisanship Tongue  I agree with you that Carnahan was initially overrated, she had initially shown a huge fundraising gap over Blunt, and at the start of the campaign the Blunt name was more toxic...I mean, I remember being vaguely involved with some of Nixon's campaign for governor in MO and people forget that Matt Blunt was the second least popular governor in America (after Blagojevich) by early 2008....so yeah, I'd probably put Carnahan as #4

I want to say that Melancon is overrated, but nobody gives him much credit.  I want to say Conway is overrated, but people don't give him much credit either, and he's a relatively polished and attractive candidate who's probably the least potentially buffoonish of his three opponents....I want to say Alexi is overrated, because he is, but Kirk is the one who's making mistakes left and right.... obviously Reid and Dodd are both in danger but everyone knows that.  

I don't think Crist is that overrated, he seems like he's a really talented politician, and what no one gives him credit for is how utterly ruthless he's going to be.  Rubio is not only battling 100% name recognition but he's battling someone who's willing to race-bait and promise real-estate the developers the moon for an extra $3m for his campaign....and frankly, Kendrick Meek is not that strong of a candidate, otherwise why would Hildebrand bail on his campaign?

I'd say Lincoln was overrated, which she probably is, but I haven't seen what's even going on down there and frankly I don't think I'll have my finger on the pulse of an area where Hillary and Palin could both be beloved.

Hoffman and Cheryl what's-her-face are both overrated as potential challengers to Alexi in IL as he has the Union support etc. and nobody really knows why they're in the race.

God knows what's going on in Pennsylvania.

Where am I?

I have my list of underrated candidates which include McMahon and Bennet Smiley
 


« Last Edit: November 18, 2009, 02:05:07 pm by Lunar »Logged

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BeccaM
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« Reply #2 on: November 18, 2009, 02:13:13 pm »
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I thought about mentioning Carly too but anyone who seriously considers her an exceptionally strong candidate is just delusional.

Not really sure why so many were excited by recruits like Kelly Ayotte and Jane Norton either. Their political acumen is still largely a mystery.
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Lunar
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« Reply #3 on: November 18, 2009, 02:17:54 pm »
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Well, I'd list Ayotte except a) Her anti-establishment primary competition seems to be interested in cannibalizing itself and b) Hodes has shown to be a pretty inept fundraiser and has to be bailed out by Reid & Biden...which isn't that great considering that Hodes has poor name recognition and is fairly boring from what I've seen of him.

There's a number of races that are just pure F'n tossups to me, New Hampshire is one of those.

I disagree with you on Crist though Smiley  I used to believe strongly that Rubio was underrated back when he was a nobody, but I'm starting to realize more and more that Crist's fluffy exterior is an act, hell, Roger Stone seems to be coming out of the woodwork to rig things against his opposition.  I used to like Crist and think he was alright back when he expanded voting rights for felons and let the polls stay open late on election night... but the more I get to know him, I see he's more fake than Mitt Romney could hope to be....but in a way that helps him win.   Sure, he made a mistake on the stimulus, but he's got a cannon up his sleeve.  I give him an 80% at the primary (Rubio def. still has a chance though, especially as smart conservative strategist types are starting to realize that they can't trust Crist as much as they thought)
« Last Edit: November 18, 2009, 02:20:16 pm by Lunar »Logged

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« Reply #4 on: November 18, 2009, 04:55:52 pm »
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My list include Alex Sink was the favorite to win the Senate race in FL but instead opted out to run for governor and she missed the mark on that one clearly.

Gov Quinn who is the lame duck governor for the state of Illinois.  He is the frontrunner to win the governorship but not the overwhelmingly favorite

Paul Hodes who saw his poll numbers slide in August and has been bumping along

Now for the republicans:
Pataki, was clearly out ahead of Gillibrand but continue to lag in the polls now
Giuliani who may defer to Rick Lazio to run for the Governorship, just like his run for president, he has the potential but does he has the will to do it.

« Last Edit: November 18, 2009, 04:59:06 pm by WEB Dubois »Logged
Lunar
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« Reply #5 on: November 18, 2009, 05:00:58 pm »
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My list include Alex Sink was the favorite to win the Senate race in FL but instead opted out to run for governor and she missed the mark on that one clearly.

Gov Quinn who is the lame duck governor for the state of Illinois.  He is the frontrunner to win the governorship but not the overwhelmingly favorite

Paul Hodes who saw his poll numbers slide in August and has been bumping along

Does anyone treat Sink as anything better than a tossup, who does?

I kind of agree with you on Quinn, he has shown himself to be an almost flawless candidate since he had taken office from Blago...yeah, he wasn't popular when he started and the elites were trying to get rid of him...but he's been doing a good job...I think...i don't know how I would vote between Queen and Hynes, Quinn seems surprisingly solid overall....who's the Republican running? mcKenna or something?  if Kirk picks up his game, maybe the GOP candidate will have a chance
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olawakandi
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« Reply #6 on: November 18, 2009, 05:24:45 pm »
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Well, Sink had a better shot at the senate anyways.  So, I thought she should of ran there.

As for Quinn he got to where he is now through succession not through an election and he should only push through tax increases that's on the wealthy not across the board.  In that instance Hynes it right. We will come to a decision very soon if Quinn is fit to win, by holding a primary.
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« Reply #7 on: November 18, 2009, 05:40:58 pm »
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Chalrie Crist
Rob Simmons
Mark Kirk
Carly Fiorina

Well, I hate all of the ones I just listed, but, eh.
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nkpatel1279
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« Reply #8 on: November 18, 2009, 06:06:10 pm »
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For Governor-The most overratted candidate- Challenger.
AL- Arthur Davis-D
CA- Meg Whitman-R
CT- Lt Governor Michael Fedele-R
GA-Roy Barnes-D
HI-Duke Aoina-R
MD-Robert Ehrlich-R
MA-The GOP nominee-R
MI-John Cherry-D
Whoever the GOP nomination in MN.
NV-Rory Reid-D if Brian Sandoval-R is GOP nominee.
NY-Rick Lazio or Rudy-if Andrew Cuomo-D is DEM nominee.
OK-Democratic Nominee-D
PA-Democratic Nominee-D
VT- Brian Dubie-R
WI-Mark Neuman or Scott Walker-R.
For US Senate.
CA-Carly Foirana-R
DE- Michael Castle-R
IL-Mark Kirk-R
LA-Charlie Melancon-D

« Last Edit: November 18, 2009, 06:10:02 pm by nkpatel1279 »Logged
DownWithTheLeft
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« Reply #9 on: November 19, 2009, 07:42:04 am »
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Robin Carnahan for the Dems and Charlie Crist for the Republicans
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nkpatel1279
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« Reply #10 on: November 19, 2009, 11:13:18 am »
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Roy Blunt's Macaca
http://www.youtube.com/TheYoungTurks#p/u/471/-TAKLtEJevs
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HappyWarrior
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« Reply #11 on: November 19, 2009, 05:45:52 pm »
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Kirk, Simmons, and any New York R.
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« Reply #12 on: November 21, 2009, 01:56:17 am »
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McCain.
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« Reply #13 on: November 21, 2009, 01:35:07 pm »
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Badly overrated:

Carly Fiorina-  Boxer will smack her in the end.
Robin Carnahan
Charlie Crist

Sort of overrated:

Pat Toomey-  None of his Congressional victories were all that impressive while it may have been a Dem leaning swing area.  If he drew State Sen. Jennifer Mann in ANY of his races, it would have been a much tougher fight.  Ed O'Brien?  Not impressive.  He got "sort of" out of me because he has the chance to unite the business and religious wings of the GOP/conservative Dems and he's not as pungent as Santorum I'll admit.
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nkpatel1279
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« Reply #14 on: November 21, 2009, 04:41:23 pm »
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Regarding Robin Carnahan-MO. her poll numbers are similar to Claire McCaskill's 2006 MO US Senate Race against Jim Talent than Bob Casey Jr. PA 2006 US Senate Race victory over Rick Santorum.
Robin Carnahan is running in a non friendly Democratic year in 2010 in a state that narrowly went for McCain. and her Republican opponent is more unpopular than Ashcroft and Talent.  Carnahan will defeat Blunt but it will be in the single digit margins.

Fisher-OH is a generic Democratic candidate. He narrowly won the 1990 OH AG Race when Voinovich was first elected Governor. He narrowly lost re-election in 1994 during the GOP wave- Voinovich-re-elected Governor, DeWine-elected US Senator, Strickland-lost re-election to his OH-6th district US House Seat- Republicans won ever statewide office in OH. In 1998- He narrowly lost the OH Governors Race to Bob Taft-this was before Coingate.etc. Republicans won every Statewide elected office. It took Bush,Taft,and Abramoff(Ney)- to help Sherrod Brown-unseat DeWine by a double digit margin. Strickland-Fisher defeat Blackwell by a landslide for the 2006 OH Governors Race. In 2010-Fisher is running against a GOP opponent who is more Conservative than DeWine and Voinovich but is not as Controversial as Ken Blackwell. The race is expected to be a pure tossup. It will coincide with the 2010 OH Governors Race.

Paul Hodes-NH will benifit from Kathy Ayotte getting bloodied in the GOP primary.

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« Reply #15 on: November 21, 2009, 04:49:53 pm »
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Carly Fiorina - Boxer will knock her out in one punch
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nkpatel1279
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« Reply #16 on: November 21, 2009, 04:56:46 pm »
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Chain-Gang or Beef Cake Charlie Crist is a popular sitting Governor of Florida. The problem with Crist is he unpopular with the wingnuts of his party- who is doing everything to defeat him in the primary. If Crist is the nominee- He wins in the general election but if Crist loses. than their is a 50-50 chance of Senator Kendrick Meek occuring.

Carly Foiriana- is the Katherine Harris in the 2010 Senate Election cycle- she is DOA. She should be a great fundraising tool for Babs Boxer.

I would add Mark Kirk-IL and Mike Castle-DE as the most overrated candidates for 2010. While they are considered top tier candidate- they will lose badly in the general election.
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« Reply #17 on: November 29, 2009, 01:51:41 pm »
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Charlie Crist and Marco Rubio.

Jane Norton

Meg Whitman
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« Reply #18 on: November 29, 2009, 02:13:20 pm »
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Republicans: Carly Fiorina
Democrats: Harry Reid (some overestimate the power of his influence, but virtual unknowns are leading him in the polls)

Libertarians overrate Rand Paul far too much, though most don't.
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« Reply #19 on: December 12, 2009, 07:51:53 pm »
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From what i've seen so far, Mark Kirk is extremely overrated.
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