Matthew Dowd says Bush up by 4 nationally
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  Matthew Dowd says Bush up by 4 nationally
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Author Topic: Matthew Dowd says Bush up by 4 nationally  (Read 1348 times)
DanimalBr
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« on: October 18, 2004, 02:40:42 PM »

Take this for what it's worth.  I don't think campaign's release their internals.  I was skeptical last week when the Washington Post said that the Kerry camp had Kerry leading in Ohio and Flordia.  And I'm skeptical with this.  But this memo from Matthew Dowd says that Bush has regained the momentum he had prior to the debates and that he leads Kerry nationally 49 to 45.   It also says that on Friday, Kerry has pulled all advertising from West Virginia.   Anyways, this is from the Kerry spot.   Believe it if you want to.  Or trash it.   It's up to you.  Smiley

http://www.nationalreview.com/kerry/kerry200410180859.asp
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kelpie
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« Reply #1 on: October 18, 2004, 02:56:44 PM »

I'm gonna go out on a limb and say it's a fake.

They'll be crying in their beer?

;-)
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JNB
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« Reply #2 on: October 18, 2004, 03:00:59 PM »


   Its not worth much. The Neo-Con monkeys are the once great National Review are nothing more than cheerleaders now.


Take this for what it's worth.  I don't think campaign's release their internals.  I was skeptical last week when the Washington Post said that the Kerry camp had Kerry leading in Ohio and Flordia.  And I'm skeptical with this.  But this memo from Matthew Dowd says that Bush has regained the momentum he had prior to the debates and that he leads Kerry nationally 49 to 45.   It also says that on Friday, Kerry has pulled all advertising from West Virginia.   Anyways, this is from the Kerry spot.   Believe it if you want to.  Or trash it.   It's up to you.  Smiley

http://www.nationalreview.com/kerry/kerry200410180859.asp

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MODU
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« Reply #3 on: October 18, 2004, 03:09:49 PM »


I'd stick with the public polls at the moment.  Bush is averaging about a 3% lead right now, and that is good enough for a win. 
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #4 on: October 18, 2004, 03:11:58 PM »

Matthew Dowd is about as objective of a source as James Carville.

However, in the past (2000, for example) he has also been very conservative in his estimates and therefore gains a little more respect from me than Carville does.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #5 on: October 18, 2004, 03:14:38 PM »

Reason #77830446111204536 why I'd like the campaign to end SOON...
Hate leaks, real or fictional
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AuH2O
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« Reply #6 on: October 18, 2004, 03:21:10 PM »

I believe that is Dowd's view of the race. I agree with his assessment.
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Whacker77
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« Reply #7 on: October 18, 2004, 04:01:48 PM »

Whether Matt Dowd is right, I don't know.  I did find it interesting to see both Tad Devine and Matt Dowd on CNN today.  Prior to the first debate, Dowd was showing confidence while Devine was very frustrated and unhappy. 

As the debates progressed, Devine seemed happier while Dowd took a softer tone.  Today, their body language suggested the roles were reversing again.  Dowd was more confident and Devine seemed more frustrated than he had been.

It leads me to believe that Dowd is closer to right.  I'm no body language expert though.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #8 on: October 18, 2004, 04:13:47 PM »

Your intuition and assumptions are close to what mine are having watched the campaign advisors during the Sunday morning shows and other programming as well.

Keep in mind, I don't think Dowd's assumption as to where this race is right now is unreasonable. 

However, it receives as much confidence in me as Tad Devine's "public" account of the race also.
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Hegemon
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« Reply #9 on: October 18, 2004, 04:15:33 PM »

I wonder if it was Dowd who leaked this gem on 11/5/ 2000:

> BUSH INTERNALS REVEALED: LEADING GORE BY 5% IN FLORIDA; CALIFORNIA BY 2%
>
> The DRUDGE REPORT has obtained the Bush campaign's most recent internal polling
> data.
>
> The confidential data commissioned by Bush shows the Texas Governor topping Vice
> President Gore by 5% in Florida, 9% in Michigan and by 2% in California, within
> the margin of error.
>
> The fresh results have given senior Bush staffers a deepened sense of confidence
> going into Tuesday's election.
>
> MORE
>
> Bush's internal polling shows the governor up 4% in Washington state and up 10% in
> Missouri.
> One sour spot for Bush: Pennsylvania, where he finds himself down 2% into the
> homestretch.
>
> A campaign spokesman refused comment on the polling leak.
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