Will 2010 Florida US Senate Race be similar to 2004 PA US Senate Race.

[nkpatel1279]

During the 2004 PA US Senate Race- Arlen Specter-then a Republican US Senator-was facing a tough primary campaign from CFGer Republican US Congressman Pat Toomey. The Democratic Nominee was Joe Hoeffel- a Congressman from Montgomery County-Philidelphia Burbs. Had Specter lost in the GOP primary. What would have been the outcome in the general election between Hoeffel-D vs Toomey-R.

Regarding 2010 FL US Senate Race. Charlie Crist-R is in the similar situation as Arlen Specter. Marco Rubio= Pat Toomey-R. Kendrick Meek-D= Joe Hoefell.

Meek-D will lose by a double digit margin against Crist-R. A Meek vs Rubio matchup will make the race very competitive.

[nhmagic]

It will be different.  Rubio will be nominated and then go on to win the seat.  Whereas Specter had the full force of a republican presidential election and the president at his side, Crist only has the support of the senatorial committee for the primary.  Without a leader of the party, other members will stray and support Rubio.  Crist also gave full-throated support to Obama's stimulus package and embraced Obama.  That's a killer in the primary.  Once Crist loses the primary, Rubio will immediately get the support of the committee and beat Meek handily.

[Senator Libertas]

It will be different.  Rubio will be nominated and then go on to win the seat.  Whereas Specter had the full force of a republican presidential election and the president at his side, Crist only has the support of the senatorial committee for the primary.  Without a leader of the party, other members will stray and support Rubio.  Crist also gave full-throated support to Obama's stimulus package and embraced Obama.  That's a killer in the primary.  Once Crist loses the primary, Rubio will immediately get the support of the committee and beat Meek handily.

I agree, Rubio is in a stronger position now than Toomey was in PA 2004. The GOP as a whole is of course much more concerned about ideological purity than it was in '04 when Specter could still be considered a Republican.

[nkpatel1279]

A specific question is- What if Pat Toomey won the GOP primary in 2004- Would he have defeated Joe Hoeffell in the general election.

[RomneyGekko Situation Hairgel]

Toomey would have gone down in flames to Hoeffel, but not as much as Santorum did.  I would give Hoeffel a 7 point margin over Toomey because there would have been more Bush-Hoeffel crossovers in the Philly suburbs than Kerry-Toomey in the Lehigh Valley. 

In Florida, I think Meek is a great candidate, but in a state like that I would rather the nominee be someone like Kathy Castor, Peter Deutsch, or Debbie Wasserman-Schultz especially in 2010. 

[nkpatel1279]

What about Jim Davis??
He represented the Tampa Bay Area while in Congress FL-11(1996-2006).
He ran for Governor against Chain Gang or Beef Cake Charlie losing by a 52-45 percent margin.  He would have been a better candidate for the US Senate in 2010 than Meek. and unlike Meek,DWS,Duetsch,and Klien,-He does not have to give up a safe US house Seat to get elected to a competive statewide elected office.

[pogo stick]

A specific question is- What if Pat Toomey won the GOP primary in 2004- Would he have defeated Joe Hoeffell in the general election.

Hoeffell (D) : 54%
Toomey (R) : 45%

[N.i.K.]

I support Rubio

[Ronnie]

I guess I like Rubio's politics more than Crist's, but I am nervous regarding his prospects against Meek.  Crist would be a lock.

[RomneyGekko Situation Hairgel]

A specific question is- What if Pat Toomey won the GOP primary in 2004- Would he have defeated Joe Hoeffell in the general election.

Hoeffell (D) : 54%
Toomey (R) : 45%

In 2004?  Even I wasn't as generous towards Hoeffel.  You have to remember there would have easily been thousands of Kerry-Toomey crossovers especially in the Lehigh Valley.  I also think Toomey would have in fact hurt Bush even more in PA.  You also have to remember Toomey has, and still hasn't, said anything as inflammatory as Santorum.  He hasn't exactly pissed of Philadelphia suburban women en masse and blew a portion of his 1994/2000 bases.

As much as I don't agree with Toomey on a damn thing, I also can't underestimate him.  He has won a swing district with some wiggle room despite such sharp right winged views.

[nhmagic]

I guess I like Rubio's politics more than Crist's, but I am nervous regarding his prospects against Meek.  Crist would be a lock.

Rubio would be a lock too.  He's hispanic and we need to move him into a national position of power, president someday, so that we make hispanics a loyal voting contingent to our party like blacks are to the democratic party.

[pogo stick]

A specific question is- What if Pat Toomey won the GOP primary in 2004- Would he have defeated Joe Hoeffell in the general election.

Hoeffell (D) : 54%
Toomey (R) : 45%

In 2004?  Even I wasn't as generous towards Hoeffel.  You have to remember there would have easily been thousands of Kerry-Toomey crossovers especially in the Lehigh Valley.  I also think Toomey would have in fact hurt Bush even more in PA.  You also have to remember Toomey has, and still hasn't, said anything as inflammatory as Santorum.  He hasn't exactly pissed of Philadelphia suburban women en masse and blew a portion of his 1994/2000 bases.

As much as I don't agree with Toomey on a damn thing, I also can't underestimate him.  He has won a swing district with some wiggle room despite such sharp right winged views.

Toomey had no shot though, I lived in PA during the 2004 election and listened to Toomey speak, my God.......I hated him back then.


I like him more now, but.....He'll lose to Specter

Specter (D): 53%
Toomey (R) : 47%

And will get slaughtered by Sestak :

Sestak (D) : 58%
Toomey (R) : 42%


The GOP Will not get squat in PA in 2010. The Governor's Mansion and the Senate race will stay Democrat by a margin of 5-8 points.

Rubio, would  beat Meek :


Rubio (R) : 54%
Meek (D) : 46%

 Crist would sweep Florida :

Crist (R) : 57%
Meek (D) : 43%

Also, I believe Santorum would fare better against Specter.  But get demolished 70-30 to Sestak.

[dwkulcsar]

I support Kevin Burns in the Florida Senate race. There is a small sized rejection of the establishment choice Kendrick Meek. Meek is not particularly progressive; he has a bit close of a relationship towards the DLC and democratic activists are not really big on that, especially the youth.
Meek is not polling as high as someone with that much funds on hand. He is the financial front-runner, but decided to not use any money to pay for entry on the ballot, and will be using all his campaign resources to get on the ballot by petition (112,000 or so needed). Which I hear is not going really well. There are pluses to getting on the ballot this way but there is only so many willing to sign a petition, petitions just seen strange when you ask someone "Would you sign a petition to get Kendrick Meek on the ballot?" asking non political astute people, they will assume that this is an endorsement by the signer.
Meek is running this campaign like the Obama campaign, and this will not work in Florida. Sure Obama won the state but got killed in rural areas; and there is where Meek needs to win in a midterm. And not to mention, people like to get to know their candidate by talking to them for more than a handshake and pre chosen words.
Meek is not really astro-turfing but campaigning by photo-op.