Bush 50 Kerry 47 says ABC/WaPo

[kelpie]

Kerry +1 Nader -1 vs. yesterday.

Link.

[emergingDmajority1]

so it's tightened a little bit, Kerry +1 here and tied in the latest Zogby/Rasmussen figures.

I still can't figure out the Gallup stuff, perhaps it's true they oversampled Republicans by 9%? Nothing happened to warrant such a dramatic shift.

[Reds4]

This could be a normal weekend tightening or a small shift to  Kerry. It will be interesting to see where the polls are Thursday compared to today.

[kelpie]

As long as Bush keeps his re-elect number at 50+ (or 49+ at a push) the Kerry vote can harden, soften or trade votes with Nader all it wants.

It won't matter.

[emergingDmajority1]

but what exactly caused the solid shift to Bush? It couldn't be all Mary Cheney? What was it?

Usually the Dem base is late coming together, right now you're seeing the first trickle of the flock coming home. Gore was mired at 42-44% for so long, then in the final week he shot up.

You here Dick Morris (asswipe) talk about this sometimes, the Dems are always underpolled and they tend to "grow" by 2-3 points on election day.

once again we don't know the internals, registered Dems still outnumber repubs something like 34-30, and these polls regularly oversample republicans.

[Reds4]

Vorlon, any feel on what the daily numbers are on this one? Much appreciated!

[AuH2O]

Democrats weren't very underpolled in 2002. Ask Senators Cleland, Shaheen, and Mondale.

I think Kerry ignited the Dem base in the first debate, and that is why he went up so convincingly in the polls. The 2nd and 3rd debates eroded and then eliminated Kerry's momentum.

6 months ago, I said the most Kerry would get was 47% of the popular vote. I stand by that. He is a weak candidate propped up only by a weak incumbent.

I cannot think of a challenger as weak as Kerry that has won in the last 120 years at least; 1912 is debatable but I think you have to go with extenuating circumstances in that case.

[emergingDmajority1]

scientific polls showed Kerry won both the 2nd and 3rd debate, not overwhelmingly, but he still won.

This could be similar to 1976, final polls had Carter 48 Ford 50, Ford chipped away at a 25-30 point lead until he took the late lead, it ended up 50-48 Carter.

[Sam Spade]

Link to the ABC version of this poll:

More internals given there.

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/News/story?id=175712

[J. J.]

scientific polls showed Kerry won both the 2nd and 3rd debate, not overwhelmingly, but he still won.

This could be similar to 1976, final polls had Carter 48 Ford 50, Ford chipped away at a 25-30 point lead until he took the late lead, it ended up 50-48 Carter.

The question isn't who "won" the debates, it's who has shifted more support.  Ford's numbers improved during the Fall, even though Carter, arguably, won the debates.  These wins might have dampened Ford's momentum, but it didn't stop it.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Democrats weren't very underpolled in 2002. Ask Senators Cleland, Shaheen, and Mondale.

I think Kerry ignited the Dem base in the first debate, and that is why he went up so convincingly in the polls. The 2nd and 3rd debates eroded and then eliminated Kerry's momentum.

6 months ago, I said the most Kerry would get was 47% of the popular vote. I stand by that. He is a weak candidate propped up only by a weak incumbent.

I cannot think of a challenger as weak as Kerry that has won in the last 120 years at least; 1912 is debatable but I think you have to go with extenuating circumstances in that case.

1912?  But the challenger won in 1912!

I'm not sure how you are definiting weak.  Kerry is certainly a better nominee in terms of electability than Goldwater was.

[AuH2O]

I know I know, I'm talking about challengers that WON.

Wilson won but it was because of the Republican split.

Kerry would be the weakest challenger to win AT LEAST since Reconstruction.

[ThePrezMex]

Does anybody has the 1976 Gallup tracking poll results?

[ATFFL]

Does anybody has the 1976 Gallup tracking poll results?

Not a tracking poll.  They did not do them until 1996, and stopped after 2000.

[A18]

What's his job approval?

[Sam Spade]

53%